• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.235-245
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• 2011

Early criticality prediction models that determine whether a design entity is fault-prone or not are becoming more and more important as software development projects are getting larger. Effective predictions can reduce the system development cost and improve software quality by identifying trouble-spots at early phases and proper allocation of effort and resources. Many prediction models have been proposed using statistical and machine learning methods. This paper builds a prediction model using Support Vector Machine(SVM) which is one of the most popular modern classification methods and compares its prediction performance with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model(BPM). SVM is known to generalize well even in high dimensional spaces under small training data conditions. In prediction performance evaluation experiments, dimensionality reduction techniques for data set are not used because the dimension of input data is too small. Experimental results show that the prediction performance of SVM model is slightly better than that of BPM and polynomial kernel function achieves better performance than other SVM kernel functions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.09a
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• pp.233-242
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• 2009

Based on the data obtained from field investigation and soil testing to slope hazards occurrence section and non-occurrence section in crystalline rocks like gneiss, granite, and so on, a prediction model was developed by the use of a decision tree model. The classification standard of the selected prediction model is composed of the slope angle, the coefficient of permeability and the void ratio in the order. The computer program, SHAPP ver. 1.0 for prediction of slope hazards around an important national facilities using GIS technique and the developed model. To prove the developed prediction model and the computer program, the field data surveyed from Jumunjin, Gangneung city were compared with the prediction result in the same site. As the result of comparison, the real occurrence location of slope hazards was similar to the predicted section. Through the continuous study, the accuracy about prediction result of slope hazards will be upgraded and the computer program will be commonly used in practical.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.205-211
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• 1997

For the prediction of multi-site rainfall with radar data and ground meteorological data, a rainfall prediction model was proposed, which uses the neural network theory, a kind of artifical Intelligence technique. The Input layer of the prediction model was constructed with current ground meteorological data, their variation, moving vectors of rain- fall field and digital terrain of the measuring site, and the output layer was constructed with the predicted rainfall up to 3 hours. In the application of the prediction model to the Pyungchang river basin, the learning results of neural network prediction model showed more Improved results than the parameter estimation results of an existing physically based model. And the proposed model comparisonally well predicted the time distribution of ralnfall.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.14 no.1_2
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• pp.377-386
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• 2004

A technique that provides prediction intervals based on a model called an empirical linear model is discussed. The technique, high-dimensional empirical linear prediction (HELP), involves principal component analysis, factor analysis and model selection. HELP can be viewed as a technique that provides prediction (and confidence) intervals based on a factor analysis models do not typically have justifiable theory due to nonidentifiability, we show that the intervals are justifiable asymptotically.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.1508-1520
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.366-375
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• 2020

The network traffic prediction of a smart substation is key in strengthening its system security protection. To improve the performance of its traffic prediction, in this paper, we propose an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA), then introduce the IGSA into a wavelet neural network (WNN), iteratively optimize the initial connection weighting, scalability factor, and shift factor, and establish a smart substation network traffic prediction model based on the IGSA-WNN. A comparative analysis of the experimental results shows that the performance of the IGSA-WNN-based prediction model further improves the convergence velocity and prediction accuracy, and that the proposed model solves the deficiency issues of the original WNN, such as slow convergence velocity and ease of falling into a locally optimal solution; thus, it is a better smart substation network traffic prediction model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.2
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• pp.203-208
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• 2006

This study compared the roundwood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and time-series models using Korean data. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The econometric model of roundwood demand was specified with four explanatory variables; own price, substitute price, gross domestic product, dummy. The time-series model was specified with lagged endogenous variable. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in roundwood demand in the late 1990's in the case of softwood roundwood, and the boom of plywood export in the late 1970's in the case of hardwood roundwood. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Square Errors(RMSE). The results showed that the softwood roundwood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by time-series model. However, the hardwood roundwood demand prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using econometric and time-series model.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.35-42
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• 2000

In paper I, the relationships between compressive strength and splitting tensile strength or modulus of elasticity were proposed. In this paper, new prediction model is investigated from estimating splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity with curing temperature and aging without compressive strength. New prediction model is based on the model which was proposed to predict compressive strength, and splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity calculated by this model are compared with experimental values of paper I. To evaluate in-situ applicability of the model, strength and modulus of elasticity tested with variable temperatures are estimated by the prediction model. The prediction model reasonably estimates the strength and the modulus of elasticity of type I and V cement concretes tested in paper I and experimental results with variable temperature tested in this paper.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.211-221
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• 2012

Many metric-based classification models have been proposed to predict fault-proneness of software module. This paper presents two prediction models using Bayesian classifier which is one of the most popular modern classification algorithms. Bayesian model based on Bayesian probability theory can be a promising technique for software quality prediction. This is due to the ability to represent uncertainty using probabilities and the ability to partly incorporate expert's knowledge into training data. The two models, Na$\ddot{i}$veBayes(NB) and Bayesian Belief Network(BBN), are constructed and dimensionality reduction of training data and test data are performed before model evaluation. Prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated using two prediction error measures, Type I error and Type II error, and compared with well-known prediction models, backpropagation neural network model and support vector machine model. The results show that the prediction performance of BBN model is slightly better than that of NB. For the data set with ambiguity, although the BBN model's prediction accuracy is not as good as the compared models, it achieves better performance than the compared models for the data set without ambiguity.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.119-127
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• 2022

Most of the construction works are conducted outdoors, so the construction workers are affected by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, and wind velocity which can be evaluated the thermal comfort as environmental factors. In our previous researches, it was found that construction accidents are usually occurred in the discomfort ranges. The safety management, therefore, should be planned in consideration of the thermal comfort and measured by a specialized simulation tool. However, it is very complex, time-consuming, and difficult to model. To address this issue, this study is aimed to develop a framework of a prediction model for improving the prediction accuracy about outdoor thermal comfort considering environmental factors using machine learning algorithms with hyperparameter tuning. This study is done in four steps: i) Establishment of database, ii) Selection of variables to develop prediction model, iii) Development of prediction model; iv) Conducting of hyperparameter tuning. The tree type algorithm is used to develop the prediction model. The results of this study are as follows. First, considering three variables related to environmental factor, the prediction accuracy was 85.74%. Second, the prediction accuracy was 86.55% when considering four environmental factors. Third, after conducting hyperparameter tuning, the prediction accuracy was increased up to 87.28%. This study has several contributions. First, using this prediction model, the thermal comfort can be calculated easily and quickly. Second, using this prediction model, the safety management can be utilized to manage the construction accident considering weather conditions.