• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Ensemble

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A NON-SPHERICAL MODEL FOR THE HOT OXYGEN CORONA OF MARS

  • KIM YONG HA;SON SUJEONG;YI YU;KIM JHOON
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.25-29
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    • 2001
  • We have constructed a non-spherical model for the hot oxygen corona of Mars by including the effects of planetary rotation and diurnal variation of the Martian ionosphere. Exospheric oxygen densities are calculated by integrating ensemble of ballistic and escaping oxygen atoms from the exobase over the entire planet. The hot oxygen atoms are produced by dissociative recombination of $O^+_2$, the major ion in the Martian ionosphere. The densities of hot oxygen atoms at the exobase are estimated from electron densities which have been measured to vary with solar zenith angle. Our model shows that the density difference of hot oxygen atoms between noon and terminator is about two orders of magnitude near the exobase, but reduces abruptly around altitudes of 2000 km due to lateral transport. The diurnal variation of hot oxygen densities remains significant up to the altitude of 10000 km. The diurnal variation of the hot oxygen corona should thus be considered when the upcoming Nozomi measurements are analyzed. The non-spherical model of the hot oxy-gen corona may contribute to building sophisticate solar wind interaction models and thus result in more accurate escaping rate of oxygens from Mars.

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Soil Water and Plant Water Stress (토양수분과 식생 스트레스 동역학에 기후변화가 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Su-Hee;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.52-56
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    • 2009
  • In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

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Evaluation of North Pacific Intermediate Water Simulated by HadGEM2-AO (HadGEM2-AO의 북태평양 중층수 모의 성능 평가)

  • Min, Hong Sik;Yim, Bo Young
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2015
  • We analyzed the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) that was simulated in 25 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) using historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario experiments of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on the evaluation of the performance of HadGEM2-AO. A large inter-model diversity in salinity, density, and depth of the NPIW exists even though the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is comparable to observations. It was found that the depth of the NPIW tends to be deeper in the models in which the NPIW is relatively saltier. HadGEM2-AO simulates the lightest NPIW having the lowest salinity at shallower depth, compared with other CGCMs. Future projections of the NPIW show that the temperature of the NPIW increases, but the density decreases in all CMIP5 models. It was shown that the salinity of the NPIW decreases in most models and the decrease tends to be larger in models simulating the lighter NPIW. The HadGEM2-AO projects moderate changes in the temperature and density of the NPIW out of the CMIP5 models.

Support vector ensemble for incipient fault diagnosis in nuclear plant components

  • Ayodeji, Abiodun;Liu, Yong-kuo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1306-1313
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    • 2018
  • The randomness and incipient nature of certain faults in reactor systems warrant a robust and dynamic detection mechanism. Existing models and methods for fault diagnosis using different mathematical/statistical inferences lack incipient and novel faults detection capability. To this end, we propose a fault diagnosis method that utilizes the flexibility of data-driven Support Vector Machine (SVM) for component-level fault diagnosis. The technique integrates separately-built, separately-trained, specialized SVM modules capable of component-level fault diagnosis into a coherent intelligent system, with each SVM module monitoring sub-units of the reactor coolant system. To evaluate the model, marginal faults selected from the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) are simulated in the steam generator and pressure boundary of the Chinese CNP300 PWR (Qinshan I NPP) reactor coolant system, using a best-estimate thermal-hydraulic code, RELAP5/SCDAP Mod4.0. Multiclass SVM model is trained with component level parameters that represent the steady state and selected faults in the components. For optimization purposes, we considered and compared the performances of different multiclass models in MATLAB, using different coding matrices, as well as different kernel functions on the representative data derived from the simulation of Qinshan I NPP. An optimum predictive model - the Error Correcting Output Code (ECOC) with TenaryComplete coding matrix - was obtained from experiments, and utilized to diagnose the incipient faults. Some of the important diagnostic results and heuristic model evaluation methods are presented in this paper.

Modeling of Convolutional Neural Network-based Recommendation System

  • Kim, Tae-Yeun
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.183-188
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    • 2021
  • Collaborative filtering is one of the commonly used methods in the web recommendation system. Numerous researches on the collaborative filtering proposed the numbers of measures for enhancing the accuracy. This study suggests the movie recommendation system applied with Word2Vec and ensemble convolutional neural networks. First, user sentences and movie sentences are made from the user, movie, and rating information. Then, the user sentences and movie sentences are input into Word2Vec to figure out the user vector and movie vector. The user vector is input on the user convolutional model while the movie vector is input on the movie convolutional model. These user and movie convolutional models are connected to the fully-connected neural network model. Ultimately, the output layer of the fully-connected neural network model outputs the forecasts for user, movie, and rating. The test result showed that the system proposed in this study showed higher accuracy than the conventional cooperative filtering system and Word2Vec and deep neural network-based system suggested in the similar researches. The Word2Vec and deep neural network-based recommendation system is expected to help in enhancing the satisfaction while considering about the characteristics of users.

Comparison of Performance of LSTM and EEMD based PM10 Prediction Model (LSTM과 EEMD 기반의 미세먼지 농도 예측 모델 성능 비교)

  • Jung, Yong-jin;Oh, Chang-heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.510-512
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    • 2022
  • Various studies are being conducted to improve the accuracy of fine dust, but there is a problem that deep learning models are not well learned due to various characteristics according to the concentration of fine dust. This paper proposes an EEMD-based fine dust concentration prediction model to decompose the characteristics of fine dust concentration and reflect the characteristics. After decomposing the fine dust concentration through EEMD, the final fine dust concentration value is derived by ensemble of the prediction results according to the characteristics derived from each. As a result of the model's performance evaluation, 91.7% of the fine dust concentration prediction accuracy was confirmed.

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Impact of assimilating the terrestrial water storage on the water and carbon cycles in CLM5-BGC

  • Chi, Heawon;Seo, Hocheol;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.204-204
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    • 2021
  • Terrestrial water storage (TWS) includes all components of water (e.g., surface water, groundwater, snow and ice) over the land. So accurately predicting and estimating TWS is important in water resource management. Although many land surface models are used to predict the TWS, model output has errors and biases in comparison to the observation data due to the model deficiencies in the model structure, atmospheric forcing datasets, and parameters. In this study, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satelite TWS data is assimilated in the Community Land Model version 5 with a biogeochemistry module (CLM5.0-BGC) over East Asia from 2003 to 2010 by employing the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). Results showed that TWS over East Asia continued to decrease during the study period, and the ability to simulate the surface water storage, which is the component of the CLM derived TWS, was greatly improved. We further investigated the impact of assimilated TWS on the vegetated and carbon related variables, including the leaf area index and primary products of ecosystem. We also evaluated the simulated total ecosystem carbon and calculated its correlation with TWS. This study shows that how the better simulated TWS plays a role in capturing not only water but also carbon fluxes and states.

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Development and evaluation of dam inflow prediction method based on Bayesian method (베이지안 기법 기반의 댐 예측유입량 산정기법 개발 및 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;So, Jae-Min;Kang, Shin-Uk;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.489-502
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to propose and evaluate the BAYES-ESP, which is a dam inflow prediction method based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP) and Bayesian theory. ABCD rainfall-runoff model was used to predict monthly dam inflow. Monthly meteorological data collected from KMA, MOLIT and K-water and dam inflow data collected from K-water were used for the model calibration and verification. To estimate the performance of ABCD model, ESP and BAYES-ESP method, time series analysis and skill score (SS) during 1986~2015 were used. In time series analysis monthly ESP dam inflow prediction values were nearly similar for every years, particularly less accurate in wet and dry years. The proposed BAYES-ESP improved the performance of ESP, especially in wet year. The SS was used for quantitative analysis of monthly mean of observed dam inflows, predicted values from ESP and BAYES-ESP. The results indicated that the SS values of ESP were relatively high in January, February and March but negative values in the other months. It also showed that the BAYES-ESP improved ESP when the values from ESP and observation have a relatively apparent linear relationship. We concluded that the existing ESP method has a limitation to predict dam inflow in Korea due to the seasonality of precipitation pattern and the proposed BAYES-ESP is meaningful for improving dam inflow prediction accuracy of ESP.

Prediction of Potential Habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) Considering Dispersal Ability Under Climate Change (분산 능력을 고려한 기후변화에 따른 붉가시나무의 잠재서식지 분포변화 예측연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Park, Seon-Uk;Hong, Seung-Bum;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.291-306
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

A Study on Leakage Detection Technique Using Transfer Learning-Based Feature Fusion (전이학습 기반 특징융합을 이용한 누출판별 기법 연구)

  • YuJin Han;Tae-Jin Park;Jonghyuk Lee;Ji-Hoon Bae
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2024
  • When there were disparities in performance between models trained in the time and frequency domains, even after conducting an ensemble, we observed that the performance of the ensemble was compromised due to imbalances in the individual model performances. Therefore, this paper proposes a leakage detection technique to enhance the accuracy of pipeline leakage detection through a step-wise learning approach that extracts features from both the time and frequency domains and integrates them. This method involves a two-step learning process. In the Stage 1, independent model training is conducted in the time and frequency domains to effectively extract crucial features from the provided data in each domain. In Stage 2, the pre-trained models were utilized by removing their respective classifiers. Subsequently, the features from both domains were fused, and a new classifier was added for retraining. The proposed transfer learning-based feature fusion technique in this paper performs model training by integrating features extracted from the time and frequency domains. This integration exploits the complementary nature of features from both domains, allowing the model to leverage diverse information. As a result, it achieved a high accuracy of 99.88%, demonstrating outstanding performance in pipeline leakage detection.