• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권12호
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• pp.1765-1773
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• 2012

The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays' load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year's day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.685-692
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• 2001

This paper reports on the mixed lubrication characteristics between the cam and the tappet contact surface of direct acting type valve train systems. First, the dynamic characteristics are solved by using the lumped mass method to determine the load conditions at the contact point. Then, the minimum oil film thickness is calculated with consideration of elastohydrodynamic line contact theory and the friction force is obtained by using the mixed lubrication model which separates the hydrodynamic and the boundary friction. Finally, the average surface temperatures are calculated by using the flash temperature theory. The results show that, there are some peaks in the friction force due to the asperity contact friction, and flash temperature at the position of minimum oil film thickness. It is thought that there is a relationship between the surface temperature and cam surface wear, and therefore, the analysis on the worn cam profile has been performed.