• 제목/요약/키워드: Methodology for Prediction

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Using Machine Learning Algorithms for Housing Price Prediction: The Case of Islamabad Housing Data

  • Imran, Imran;Zaman, Umar;Waqar, Muhammad;Zaman, Atif
    • Soft Computing and Machine Intelligence
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2021
  • House price prediction is a significant financial decision for individuals working in the housing market as well as for potential buyers. From investment to buying a house for residence, a person investing in the housing market is interested in the potential gain. This paper presents machine learning algorithms to develop intelligent regressions models for House price prediction. The proposed research methodology consists of four stages, namely Data Collection, Pre Processing the data collected and transforming it to the best format, developing intelligent models using machine learning algorithms, training, testing, and validating the model on house prices of the housing market in the Capital, Islamabad. The data used for model validation and testing is the asking price from online property stores, which provide a reasonable estimate of the city housing market. The prediction model can significantly assist in the prediction of future housing prices in Pakistan. The regression results are encouraging and give promising directions for future prediction work on the collected dataset.

토픽 모델링에 기반한 온라인 상품 평점 예측을 위한 온라인 사용 후기 분석 (Online Reviews Analysis for Prediction of Product Ratings based on Topic Modeling)

  • 박상현;문현실;김재경
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2017
  • Customers have been affected by others' opinions when they make a purchase. Thanks to the development of technologies, people are sharing their experiences such as reviews or ratings through online or social network services, However, although ratings are intuitive information for others, many reviews include only texts without ratings. Also, because of huge amount of reviews, customers and companies can't read all of them so they are hard to evaluate to a product without ratings. Therefore, in this study, we propose a methodology to predict ratings based on reviews for a product. In a methodology, we first estimate the topic-review matrix using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation technic which is widely used in topic modeling. Next, we predict ratings based on the topic-review matrix using the artificial neural network model which is based on the backpropagation algorithm. Through experiments with actual reviews, we find that our methodology can predict ratings based on customers' reviews. And our methodology performs better with reviews which include certain opinions. As a result, our study can be used for customers and companies that want to know exactly a product with ratings. Moreover, we hope that our study leads to the implementation of future studies that combine machine learning and topic modeling.

모델의 불확실성이 구조물의 손상예측정확도에 미치는 영향 (Damage Prediction Accuracy as a Function of Model Uncertainty in Structures)

  • 김정태
    • 전산구조공학
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 1994
  • 구조물의 손상예측정확도를 모델불확실성의 함수로 산정하는 방법론이 제시되었다. 먼저, 구조물의 손상발생위치과 크기를 결정할 수 있는 알고리즘의 요약되고 모델불확실성과 손상발견정확도를 측정하는 방법들이 제시되었다. 다음으로, 실존구조물의 손상발견정확도에 미치는 모델불확실성의 영향을 산정하는 방법론이 제시되었다. 마지막으로, 한개의 진동모드가 측정된 Plate-Girder교량을 사용하여 이같은 산정방법론의 적합성이 예증되었다.

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보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법 (Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation)

  • 권오병
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

반응표면법에 의한 연약지반 차량 거동의 통계적 분석 및 예측 (Statistical Analysis and Prediction for Behaviors of Tracked Vehicle Traveling on Soft Soil Using Response Surface Methodology)

  • 이태희;정재준;홍섭;김형우;최종수
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2006
  • For optimal design of a deep-sea ocean mining collector system, based on self-propelled mining vehicle, it is imperative to develop and validate the dynamic model of a tracked vehicle traveling on soft deep seabed. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the fidelity of the dynamic simulation model by means of response surface methodology. Various statistical techniques related to response surface methodology, such as outlier analysis, detection of interaction effect, analysis of variance, inference of the significance of design variables, and global sensitivity analysis, are examined. To obtain a plausible response surface model, maximum entropy sampling is adopted. From statistical analysis and prediction for dynamic responses of the tracked vehicle, conclusions will be drawn about the accuracy of the dynamic model and the performance of the response surface model.

전기전자 시스템 신뢰성 예측 방법론 217PlusTM의 개요 (Overview of the 217PlusTM, Electronic System Reliability Prediction Methodology)

  • 전태보
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제28권B호
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    • pp.215-226
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    • 2008
  • MIL-HDBK-217 has widely been used for electronics reliability predictions. Recently, the $217Plus^{TM}$ has been developed by DoD RIAC and may replace MIL-HDBK-217. A overview of the $217Plus^{TM}$ has been performed in this paper. We first reviewed the overall concepts and reliability prediction procedures. We then explained the component models and the system level model with process grading concepts. Bayesian approach incorporating field data into the predicted failure rate is another feature of this methodology.

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Unit Cost Prediction Model Development for the Domestic Reinforced Bar using System Dynamics

  • Ko, Yongho;Choi, Seungho;Kim, Youngsuk;Han, Seungwoo
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2013
  • Construction industry has become a larger and highly competitive industry. A successful construction project cannot be achieved only by efficient and fast construction techniques but also reasonable material cost and adequate transferring time of materials to installation. The steel industry in East Asia has become the mainstream in overall steel industries in over the world during the middle of the 21st century. China, Japan and Korea has been the main exportation countries. However, even though the international economic failure, China has increased the exportation amount and became an only exporting country which must be considered a serious problem regarding competitiveness in the international steel exportation industry. Thus, this study analyses the factors affecting the supply and demand amount of reinforced bars in the domestic field and moreover suggesting a unit cost prediction model using the System Dynamics simulation methodology, one of powerful prediction tools using cause-effect relationships. It is expected that this study contributes to the domestic steel industry growth in competitiveness in the international industry. In addition, the methodology used in this paper presents the frameworks for appropriate tools for market trend analysis and prediction of other markets.

Design for Safety :Development and Application of a Formalised Methodology

  • Vassalos, Dracos;Oestvik, Ivan;Konovessis, Dimitris
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2000
  • The paper describes a formalisation of a Design for Safety methodology in an integrated envi-ronment, outlines early developments of a software tool, and presents the results of an appli-cation of the methodology to a case study. The approach adopted attempts link safety per-formance prediction through the utilisation of appropriate technical tools, safety assessment deriving from risk-based methodologies and disparate design activities and issues. Black-board systems have been utilised as the platform in the development of the integrated design environment, allowing safety assessment to become an integral part of the design process. Finally, the case study addresses the application of the developed methodology to three dif-ferent arrangements of a conventional passenger Ro-Ro vessel, with the aim to demonstrate the validity of the process and methodology adopted. The findings are presented and dis-cussed, and recommendations given for the way forward.

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일방향 복합재료 Single Lap 접합 조인트의 파손 모드 및 파손 강도 II. 파손 예측 (Failure Mode and Strength of Unidirectional Composite Single Lap Bonded Joints II. Failure Prediction)

  • 이영무;김천곤;김광수
    • Composites Research
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 복합재료 접합 조인트의 다양한 파손 모드를 고려하여 파손 강도를 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법에서는 접착제의 탄성-완전 소성 재료 모델과 층간분리 파손 식을 이용해 접착제 파손 하중과 복합재료 부재의 층간분리 파손 하중을 동시에 계산하였다. 제시된 방법을 유한요소해석에 도입하여 복합재료 Single-Lap 접합조인트의 파손 예측을 수행하였으며 시험결과와 비교하였다 이를 통해 본 방법이 다양한 접합 방법에 따른 실제적인 파손모드 및 파손 하중을 정확하게 예측할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 접착제의 유효강도(또는 접착 성능) 및 소성거동이 복합재료 접합 조인트의 파손 특성에 미치는 영향을 수치적으로 평가하였다. 이를 통해, 복합재료 접합조인트의 파손 강도는 접착제의 접착 성능과 항상 비례하지 않으며 층간분리 파손과 접착제 파손이 동시에 발생하도록 하는 것이 접합 조인트의 강도를 최대로 향상시킬 수 있음을 보였다.