• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological Modeling

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Modeling for Predicting Yield and $\alpha$-Acid Content in Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) from Meteorological Elements I. A Model for Predicting Fresh Cone Yield (기상요소에 따른 호프 (Humulus lupulus L.)의 수량 및 $\alpha$-Acid 함량 예측모형에 관한 연구 I. 생구화 수량 예측모형)

  • 박경열
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 1988
  • The hop yield prediction model developed based on meteorological elements in Hoeongseong was Y=6,042.846-17.665 $X_1$-0.919 $X_2$-96.538 $X_3$-138.105 $X_4$+86.910 $X_{5}$$X_{6}$ with MS $E_{p}$ of 25.258, $R_{p}$$^{2}$ of 0.9991, R $a_{p}$$^{2}$ of 0.9962 and $C_{p}$ of 7.00. The minimum air temperature at early growing stage ( $X_1$), the total precipitation at cone ripening stage ( $X_2$), the maximum air temperature at flower bud differentiation stage ( $X_3$) and the maximum air temperature at flowering stage ( $X_4$) influenced on hop yield as decrement weather elements. The average air temperature at early growing stage ( $X_{5}$ ) and the total sunshine hours at cone development stage ( $X_{6}$ ) influenced on hop yield as increment weather elements.lements.

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A Comparison of the Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Obtained by an Inverse Modeling System and Passenger Aircraft Based Measurement (인버스 모델링 방법을 통해 추정된 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도와 항공 관측 자료 비교)

  • Kim, Hyunjung;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kim, Jinwoong;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.387-400
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations estimated by CT2013B, a recent version of CarbonTracker, are compared with $CO_2$ measurements from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project during 2010-2011. CarbonTracker is an inversion system that estimates surface $CO_2$ fluxes using atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations. Overall, the model results represented the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations well with a slight overestimation compared to observations. In the case of horizontal distribution, variations in the model and observation difference were large in northern Eurasia because most of the model and data mismatch were located in the stratosphere where the model could not represent $CO_2$ variations well enough due to low model resolution at high altitude and existing phase shift from the troposphere. In addition, the model and observation difference became larger in boreal summer. Despite relatively large differences at high latitudes and in boreal summer, overall, the modeled $CO_2$ concentrations fitted well to observations. Vertical profiles of modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations showed that the model overestimates the observations at all altitudes, showing nearly constant differences, which implies that the surface $CO_2$ concentration is transported well vertically in the transport model. At Narita, overall differences were small, although the correlation between modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations decreased at higher altitude, showing relatively large differences above 225 hPa. The vertical profiles at Moscow and Delhi located on land and at Hawaii on the ocean showed that the model is less accurate on land than on the ocean due to various effects (e.g., biospheric effect) on land compared to the homogeneous ocean surface.

Development of Realtime Dam's Hydrologic Variables Prediction Model using Observed Data Assimilation and Reservoir Operation Techniques (관측자료 동화기법과 댐운영을 고려한 실시간 댐 수문량 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byong Ju;Jung, Il-Won;Jung, Hyun-Sook;Bae, Deg Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.7
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    • pp.755-765
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    • 2013
  • This study developed a real-time dam's hydrologic variables prediction model (DHVPM) and evaluated its performance for simulating historical dam inflow and outflow in the Chungju dam basin. The DHVPM consists of the Sejong University River Forecast (SURF) model for hydrologic modeling and an autoreservoir operation method (Auto ROM) for dam operation. SURF model is continuous rainfall-runoff model with data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. The four extreme events including the maximum inflow of each year for 2006~2009 were selected to examine the performance of DHVPM. The statistical criteria, the relative error in peak flow, root mean square error, and model efficiency, demonstrated that DHVPM with data assimilation can simulate more close to observed inflow than those with no data assimilation at both 1-hour lead time, except the relative error in peak flow in 2007. Especially, DHVPM with data assimilation until 10-hour lead time reduced the biases of inflow forecast attributed to observed precipitation error. In conclusion, DHVPM with data assimilation can be useful to improve the accuracy of inflow forecast in the basin where real-time observed inflow are available.

Modeling for Predicting Yield and $\alpha$-Acid Content in Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) from Meteorological Elements II. A Model for Predicting $\alpha$-Acid Content (기상 요소에 따른 호프(Humulus lupulus L.)이 수량 및 $\alpha$-Acd 함량 예측 모형에 관한 연구 II $\alpha$-Acid 함량 예측 모형)

  • 박경열
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.323-328
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    • 1988
  • The hop alpha-acid content prediction model developed with meteorological elements in Hoeongseong was Y=28.369-0.003X$_1$+1.558X$_2$-1.953X$_3$-0.335X$_4$-0.003X$\sub$5/-0.119X$\sub$6/, with MSEp of 0.004, Rp$^2$ of 0.9987, Rap$_2$ of 0.9949 and Cp of 7.00. The total sunshine hours (X$_1$), the maximum temperature (X$_3$) and the total precipitation (X$\sub$5/) at flowering stage. the maximum temperature at flower bud differentiation stage (X$_4$) and the maximum temperature at cone ripening stage (X$\sub$6/) influenced on hop alpha .acid content as decrement weather elements. The maximum temperature at cone development stage(X$_2$) effected on ${\alpha}$-acid content as increment weather element.

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Development of daily spatio-temporal downscaling model with conditional Copula based bias-correction of GloSea5 monthly ensemble forecasts (조건부 Copula 함수 기반의 월단위 GloSea5 앙상블 예측정보 편의보정 기법과 연계한 일단위 시공간적 상세화 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Min Ji;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1317-1328
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

The Relationship of Froude Number and Developed Cloud Band Locations Near Yeongdong Region Under the Siberian High Pressure System (시베리아 고기압 영향으로 영동지역 부근에서 발달한 구름대의 위치와 Froude 수와의 관계)

  • Kim, Yu-Jin;Kim, Man-Ki;Lee, Jae Gyoo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.325-342
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    • 2019
  • Precipitation and no-precipitation events under the influence of the Siberian high pressure system in Yeondong region, were analysed and classified as four types [obvious precipitation event (OP) type, obvious no-precipitation event (ON) type, ambiguous precipitation event (AP) type and ambiguous no-precipitation event (AN) type], according to the easiness in determining whether to have precipitation or not in Yeongdong region, to help in improving the forecast skill. Concerning the synoptic pressure pattern, for OP type, the ridge of Siberian high extends from Lake Baikal toward Northeast China, and there is a northerly wind upstream of the northern mountain complex (located near the Korean-Chinese border). On the other hand, for ON type, the ridge of Siberian high extends southeastward from Lake Baikal, and there is a westerly wind upstream of the northern mountain complex. The pressure pattern of AP type was similar to the OP type and that of AN type was also similar to ON type. Thus it was difficult to differentiate AP type and OP type and AN type and ON type based on the synoptic pressure pattern only. The four types were determined by U (wind speed normal to the Taebaek mountains) and Froude number (FN). That is, for OP type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are ~2.0 and ${\sim}6m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are 0.0 and $0.1m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. On the contrary, for ON type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are 0.0 and $0.2m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are ~1.0 and ${\sim}4m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. For AP type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are ~1.0 and ${\sim}4m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are 0.0 and $0.2m\;s^{-1}$, whereas for AN type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are 0.1 and $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ and those at Yeongseo region are ~1.0 and ${\sim}3m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. Based on the result, a schematic diagram for each type was suggested.

Historical Development of Research and Publications in Atmospheric Physics Field (대기물리 분야 연구논문 발전 현황)

  • Seong Soo Yum;Kyu-Tae Lee;Jong-Jin Baik;Gyuwon Lee;Sang-Woo Kim;Junshik Um
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.105-124
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    • 2023
  • Research papers published in the Korean Meteorological Society (KMS) journals by the members of KMS since the establishment of KMS in 1963 in the field of atmospheric physics are summarized. A significant number of research papers published in other international journals are also cited in this paper to highlight the achievement of the KMS members in international academic community. The aim is to illustrate the historical development of research activities of the KMS members in the field of atmospheric physics, and indeed it is found that the KMS members have made enormous progress in research publications quantitatively and qualitatively in the field of atmospheric physics. In detail, however, observational studies of aerosol physical properties and cloud and precipitation physics were very active, and studies on cloud physics parameterization for cloud modeling were highly recognized in the world, but observational and theoretical studies of atmospheric radiation were relatively lacking and solicit more contribution from the KMS members.

Modeling of Vegetation Phenology Using MODIS and ASOS Data (MODIS와 ASOS 자료를 이용한 식물계절 모델링)

  • Kim, Geunah;Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Choi, Soyeon;Park, Ganghyun;Chun, Junghwa;Jang, Keunchang;Won, Myoungsoo;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.627-646
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the seriousness of climate change-related problems caused by global warming is growing, and the average temperature is also rising. As a result, it is affecting the environment in which various temperature-sensitive creatures and creatures live, and changes in the ecosystem are also being detected. Seasons are one of the important factors influencing the types, distribution, and growth characteristics of creatures living in the area. Among the most popular and easily recognized plant seasonal phenomena among the indicators of the climate change impact evaluation, the blooming day of flower and the peak day of autumn leaves were modeled. The types of plants used in the modeling were forsythia and cherry trees, which can be seen as representative plants of spring, and maple and ginkgo, which can be seen as representative plants of autumn. Weather data used to perform modeling were temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation observed through the ASOS Observatory of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As satellite data, MODIS NDVI was used for modeling, and it has a correlation coefficient of about -0.2 for the flowering date and 0.3 for the autumn leaves peak date. As the model used, the model was established using multiple regression models, which are linear models, and Random Forest, which are nonlinear models. In addition, the predicted values estimated by each model were expressed as isopleth maps using spatial interpolation techniques to express the trend of plant seasonal changes from 2003 to 2020. It is believed that using NDVI with high spatio-temporal resolution in the future will increase the accuracy of plant phenology modeling.

Evolution and scaling of a simulated downburst-producing thunderstorm outflow

  • Oreskovic, Christopher;Savory, Eric;Porto, Juliette;Orf, Leigh G.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2018
  • For wind engineering applications downbursts are, presently, almost exclusively modeled, both experimentally and numerically, as transient impinging momentum jets (IJ), even though that model contains none of the physics of real events. As a result, there is no connection between the IJ-simulated downburst wind fields and the conditions of formation of the event. The cooling source (CS) model offers a significant improvement since it incorporates the negative buoyancy forcing and baroclinic vorticity generation that occurs in nature. The present work aims at using large-scale numerical simulation of downburst-producing thunderstorms to develop a simpler model that replicates some of the key physics whilst maintaining the relative simplicity of the IJ model. Using an example of such a simulated event it is found that the non-linear scaling of the velocity field, based on the peak potential temperature (and, hence, density) perturbation forcing immediately beneath the storm cloud, produces results for the radial location of the peak radial outflow wind speeds near the ground, the magnitude of that peak and the time at which the peak occurs that match well (typically within 5%) of those produced from a simple axi-symmetric constant-density dense source simulation. The evolution of the downdraft column within the simulated thunderstorm is significantly more complex than in any axi-symmetric model, with a sequence of downdraft winds that strengthen then weaken within a much longer period (>17 minutes) of consistently downwards winds over almost all heights up to at least 2,500 m.

A Study on a Wind Turbine Data Logger System based on WiFi for Meteorological Resource Measurement (기상자원 측정을 위한 와이파이 기반의 풍력용 데이터로거 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Se-Hoon;Sim, Chun-Bo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2015
  • Wind turbine market is showed height growth rate of about 30% for year, and is increasingly growing. Total rate of domestic wind turbine installation is showing share of 0.2% of the global market that is 380MW. However, wind turbine installed in domestic are foreign product more than 90%. Similarly, Datalogger of pretest system for ocean wind turbine plant installation has been leaked huge cost to abroad by mostly abroad company product. In this paper, we proposed pretest weather resource measurement system for efficiency and investment cost cutting of wind turbine construction work. Preset weather resource measurement system is ocean weather resource measurement datalogger based on wireless communication(wifi) that have consist of hardware and software(wind rose) that is able to monitoring as datalogger of wireless bridge and battery state, wind direction, wind speed, temperature, humidity, radiation around weather tower and is able to analysis of measured data.