• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mega Event

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A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using time series ARIMA-Intervention Model (ARIMA-Intervention 시계열모형을 활용한 제주 국내선 항공여객수요 추정)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Kim, Kee-Woong;Park, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of intervention variables which may affect the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights and to anticipate the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights. The air travel demand forecasts for Jeju domestic flights are conducted through ARIMA-Intervention Model selecting five intervention variables such as 2002 World Cup games, SARS, novel swine-origin influenza A, Yeonpyeongdo bombardment and Japan big earthquake. The result revealed that the risk factor such as the threat of war that is a negative intervention incident and occurred in Korea has the negative impact on the air travel demand due to the response of risk aversion by users. However, when local natural disasters (earthquakes, etc) occurring in neighboring courtiers and global outbreak of an epidemic gave the negligible impact to Korea, negative intervention incident would have a positive impact on air travel demand as a response to find alternative due to rational expectation of air travel customers. Also we realize that a mega-event such as the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup games reduced the air travel demand in a short-term period unlike the perception in which it will increase the air travel demand and travel demands in the corresponding area.

International Flower Exhibition in Anmyon-Do and Its Implications for Flower Industry in Chungnam Region (안면도 국제 꽃박람회의 지역 화훼산업의 발전방안)

  • Kwon, Yong-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.162-172
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    • 2001
  • There have been various flower exhibitions in many countries such as Netherlands, Japan and China so as to encourage the growth of flower industry since they recognize the value of flower as cultural goods. Chungnam Province government, also endeavoring to make the. regional flower industry into high valued agriculture and exporting industry, plans to open the international flower exhibition in Anmyon-Do from April 26th, 2002. This flower show, first held by local government and featuring mega-event tourism, is expected to contribute to initiating flower industry and related business in Chungnam region. However, the flower exhibition may not be said to succeed if it does not play enough to trigger the role in expanding its effect on post growth of regional flower industry. This paper aimed at suggesting strategies of maintaining festival boom of post Anmyon-Do flower fair and contributing to take off of flower agriculture and its related industry as follows; 1) inviting various flower business activities into exhibition places 2) establishing flower village town attracted by tourists 3) devising the flower R&D center 4) organizing helping center for infant flower business group.

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Flood Simulation using Mega Flood scenarios in Pyeongchang river basin (거대홍수 시나리오를 이용한 평창강 유역의 홍수모의)

  • Choi, Chang-Hyun;Han, Dae-Gun;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Eo, Gyu;Lee, Dae-Wung;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2015.11a
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    • pp.280-281
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 연속적인 호우 사상으로 인한 심각한 홍수를 거대홍수라고 정의하고, 일정 시간 간격으로 극한 호우 사상이 연속적으로 발생 될 수 있음을 가정하여 가상의 거대홍수 시나리오를 구성하였다. 최소 무강우 시간 결정(Inter Event Time Definition, IETD)방법을 사용하여 연속적인 강우의 시간 간격을 결정하였으며, IETD에 의해 산정된 시간 간격 안에서 호우 사상을 연속적으로 발생시켜 평창강 유역을 대상으로 거대홍수를 모의하였다. 즉, (1) 기록된 극한 호우 사상의 연속적인 발생 (2) 기왕 자료를 기반으로 빈도해석에 의해 산정된 설계 호우 사상의 연속적인 발생을 가정하여 거대홍수를 모의하였다. 연속 호우 사상으로 인한 거대홍수는 단일 호우 사상으로 인한 일반 홍수에 비해 6~17%의 홍수량이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 앞의 호우 사상으로 인한 홍수량에 비해 뒤에 오는 호우로 인한 홍수량의 증가는 많지 않지만, 연속적인 호우는 두 번의 홍수피해를 가져오므로 가상의 거대홍수로 인한 홍수 피해는 매우 클 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 연구와 같이 가상의 강우 시나리오를 통해 예상하지 못한 연속적인 홍수 재해와 같은 비상 상황에 대비할 수 있는 방안을 마련할 필요가 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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Trend analysis of Mega Flood in the Han river basin (한강유역의 거대홍수 경향성 분석)

  • Kim, Bo Ran;Kim, Duck Hwan H;Han, Dae Gun;Hong, Seung Jin;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.153-153
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    • 2016
  • 최근 지구온난화 및 기후변화의 영향으로 수재해가 증가하고 있으며, 강우의 경향성이 변화하고 있다. 태풍 및 집중호우로 인한 피해보다 장기간의 연속적인 강우의 발생으로 인한 피해가 더욱 크며, 기존 수공구조물의 설계기준은 연속적인 호우로 인한 피해를 고려하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 거대홍수란 집중호우, 태풍, 이상홍수 및 돌발홍수로 인한 홍수피해의 여파가 끝나기도 전에 또 다른 강우사상으로 인하여 거대한 홍수가 발생하는 시나리오적 상황을 의미한다. 본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 한강권역 30년 동안의 (1986 ${\infty}$ 2015년) 강우자료를 이용하여 거대홍수 발생횟수, 경향성, 설계기준을 초과하여 발생하는 거대홍수 초과빈도를 분석하였다. 최소 무강우 시간 정의(Inter Event Time Definition, IETD)를 이용하여 거대홍수를 산정하고, Mann-Kendall test 및 이중누가우량분석(double mass analysis)을 통하여 거대홍수의 경향성 분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 기존 수공구조물의 설계기준의 취약점을 보완할 수 있을 것이라 판단되며, 태풍, 집중호우, 거대홍수 등으로 발생하는 홍수피해를 줄이기 위한 방재 사업의 우선순위 결정에 대한 근거 자료로 활용할 수 있을 것이라 기대된다.

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A Discourse Analysis of Attempts to Strengthen Global Image through the 2011 World Athletics Championships (스포츠 관광을 통한 대구의 세계화 - 2011 대구세계육상선수권대회의 문화지리학적 분석 -)

  • Ethan, Yorgason
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.454-475
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    • 2013
  • In 2011, Daegu hosted the International Association of Athletics Federation Championships and attempted to use this event strengthen its global profile. Organizers hoped Daegu 2011 would strengthen knowledge about Daegu internationally and help the city overcome recent economic stagnation by bolstering tourism and investment on the global scale. Written from the perspective of a foreigner living in Korea, this interpretive article uses mixed-method cultural geographic analysis to evaluate the momentum Daegu 2011 produced in these directions. The article draws on a tripartite "territorialisation" approach to mega-event tourism's production of space, focusing on representational efforts during the approach to the championships and the event itself. Promotional materials receive particular attention. Interviews with international tourists during 2011 strengthen conclusions drawn from analysis of promotional materials. After reviewing relevant conceptual literature, Daegu's history, and the background of Daegu 2011, the article devotes three subsections to analysis. The first uses critical discourse analysis of a key promotional video to argue that Daegu's self-promotions betrayed insecurity about the city's place within the global tourism market. A second analysis subbsection finds that additional promotional materials did not fully overcome that problem. These materials also produced an overload of Daegu images and aspirations. The third subsection further develops these arguments, pointing to a partial mismatch between images emphasized by promotions and experiences available in the tourism landscape. This subsection also argues that while Daegu 2011 undoubtedly produced positive effects for the city, key challenges remain if Daegu will be placed on the map of globally acknowledged cities.

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Seismic Displacement Analysis of GPS Permanent Stations in Korean and Asian Area Due to the Tohoku-Oki Mega-Thrust Earthquake (일본 Tohoku-Oki 대지진으로 인한 한국 및 아시아 지역 상시관측소의 위치변동량 분석)

  • Hwang, Jin-Sang;Yun, Hong-Sic;Lee, Dong-Ha;Jung, Tae-Jun;Suh, Yong-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of seismic displacements due to the mega thrust earthquake occurred near Tohoku-Oki area on Mar. 11, 2011 with Mw 9.0 magnitude in the context of evaluation of position change by the earthquake on the Korean and Asian GPS permanent stations. For this, two weeks GPS data observed around the event of Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mar. 4 ~ Mar. 18, 2011) were obtained from 22 GPS permanent stations in the vicinity of epicenter (Korea, Japan, Russia, China and Taiwan) and 284 IGS global stations. All available GPS data were processed and adjusted by GAMIT/GLOBK software to estimate the co-seismic horizontal displacements at each station. As the results of GPS analysis, the co-seismic displacements due to Tohoku-Oki earthquake were clearly revealed in the GPS stations of Asian region, Japan and its neighboring countries, and even to affect the horizontal position of GPS station (WUHN in China) which are located about 2,702km away from the epicenter. In conclusion, it was found that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake had resulted in the horizontal displacements ranging from 14.9 mm to 58.3 mm in Korea. So, these displacements can cause the position error of GPS geodetic survey up to 20 mm without updating the coordinates of Korean geodetic network.

Stratigraphy of the Kachi-1 Well, Kunsan Basin, Offshore Western Korea (한국 서해 대륙붕 군산분지 까치-1공의 층서)

  • Ryu, In-Chang;Kim, Tae-Hoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.473-490
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    • 2007
  • Strata of the Kachi-1 well, Kunsan Basin, offshore western Korea, were analyzed by using integrated stratigraphy approach. As a result, five distinct unconformity-bounded units are recognized in the well: Triassic, Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous, Early Cretaceous, Late Cretaceous, and Middle Miocene units. Each unit represents a tectono-stratigraphic unit that provides time-sliced information on basin-forming tectonics, sedimentation, and basin-modifying tectonics of the Kunsan Basin. In the late Late Jurassic, development of second- or third-order wrench faults along the Tan-Lu fault system probably initiated a series of small-scale strike-slip extensional basins. Continued sinistral movement of these wrench faults until the Late Cretaceous caused a mega-shear in the basin, forming a large-scale pull-apart basin. However, in the Early Tertiary, the Indian Plate began to collide with the Eurasian Plate, forming a mega-suture zone. This orogenic event, namely the Himalayan Orogeny, continued by late Eocene and was probably responsible for initiation of right-lateral motion of the Tan-Lu fault system. The right-lateral strike-slip movement of the Tan-Lu fault caused the tectonic inversion of the Kunsan Basin. Thus, the late Eocene to Oligocene was the main period of severe tectonic modification of the basin. After the Oligocene, the Kunsan Basin has maintained thermal subsidence up to the present with short periods of marine transgressions extending into the land part of the present basin.

Pressure restricted water supply method during drought using a computer simulation and daily water supply analysis (시뮬레이션과 1일 급수량 분석을 이용한 갈수기 감압에 의한 제한급수 방법)

  • Nam, Youngwook;Kim, Kyungsu;Hyun, Inhwan;Kim, Dooil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2020
  • Due to global climate change, mega-droughts have occurred frequently. Since long-term droughts make it difficult to secure the water resources, water supply needs to be restricted in a reasonable manner. In the event of limited water supply, the waterworks need to develop a restricted water supply strategy. This study showed that analyzing daily water supply could be used to respond to the first stage of a drought. According to an analysis of Korea's major water authorities, there was about 7~21% of room for daily minimum water supply in case of a drought. Restricting the water supply by lowering pressure is a good strategy for local water authorities with high water leakage rate since leakage is inversely dependent with pressure. For this method, it is necessary to quantify water deficiency and pressure at each node using a simulation. Since DDA-based software is not possible to predict changes in demand at nodes with pressure reduction, WaterGEMS, a PDA software, was used to quantitatively predict water shortages and pressures at each node. Locations where water is deficient need to install booster pumps or to be dispatched with water tank truck and bottled water. Without these support, lowering pressure could not be an option for water works. This paper suggests a method for waterworks to plan a drought by lowering pressure to restrict water supply using daily water supply analysis and PDA based simulation.

Efficacy and safety of equine cartilage for rhinoplasty: a multicenter double-blind non-inferiority randomized confirmatory clinical trial

  • Chang, Yongjoon;Yun, Hyunjong;Choi, Jong Woo;Suh, Joong Min;Jeong, Woo Shik;Park, Hojin;Kang, Min Kyu;Shin, Yongho;Kim, Kuylhee;Chung, Chul Hoon
    • Archives of Craniofacial Surgery
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.152-162
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    • 2022
  • Background: The efficacy and safety of equine cartilage as a competent xenograft material for rhinoplasty were evaluated and compared to the outcomes of rhinoplasty using silicone implants. Methods: We performed a multicenter, double-blind, non-inferiority, and randomized confirmatory study. Fifty-six patients were randomized 1:1 to the study group (using MegaCartilage-E) and control group (using silicone implants). The Rhinoplasty Outcome Evaluation (ROE) score, photo documentation, Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale (GAIS), and adverse event data were obtained until 12 months after surgery. The primary efficacy, which is the change in ROE score 6 months after surgery, was assessed in the modified intention-to-treat set. The secondary efficacy was evaluated in the per-protocol set by assessing the change in ROE score 6 and 12 months after surgery and nasofrontal angle, the height of the nasion, and GAIS 1, 6, and 12 months after surgery. Results: The change in ROE score of the study group was non-inferior to that of the control group; it increased by 24.26±17.24 in the study group and 18.27±17.60 in the control group (p= 0.213). In both groups, all secondary outcome measures increased, but there was no statistical difference. In the safety set, treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 10 patients (35.71%) in the study group and six patients (21.43%) in the control group (p= 0.237). There were 13 adverse device events in the study group and six adverse device events in the control group (p= 0.515). Conclusion: Processed equine cartilage can be used effectively and safely as xenograft material for rhinoplasty.

Risk Assessment Model for the Delay Protocol in the Conditions of Contract of International Construction Projects (해외 건설공사 공기지연사건의 합리적 대응을 위한 계약조건 리스크 평가 방법)

  • Lee, Hwangku;Shin, Dongwoo;Kim, Kyungrai;Cha, Heesung;Kim, Youngjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2017
  • Recently, many Korean major construction companies are suffering from profit loss mainly due to a direct impact from delays in their overseas projects. In general, changes are inevitable in a large-scale project, and most of changes are directly linked to construction delay. Therefore, in the event that an extension of time is necessary due to a change, the contractor must manage the delay based on the condition of the contract to effectively manage risks from delay to the completion date. Thus it is important to understand delay protocol defined in the condition of the contract early in the project, but there have been few or no study to propose methodology or tool to support this effort. This paper presents a review on the project planning and controling practices of major Korean construction companies along with the issues on delay claims and disputes in mega-international projects and suggests a tool to assess delay risk in the condition of the contract. To propose a delay risk assessment model for international construction projects, major standard conditions of contract have been reviewed including FIDIC Red Book(1999), PSSCOC(2014) and SIA 9th Edition(2010). To reflect recent trend of major international owners, standard conditions which they are utilizing for their projects also have been reviewed including those of ARAMCO and QP. The model provides a categories of risks to be reviewed on the condition of the contract along with standard level of the risk which is common in the international standard form of the contracts. This study also performed a case study on an actual international project to confirm the effectiveness of proposed model to identify and respond to a delay risk of a project.