• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mean value model

Search Result 1,086, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Laboratory Experimentals and Numerical Analysis for Development of a Atmospheric Mixed Layer (대기 혼합층 발달 과정의 모형 실험과 수치 해석)

  • 이화운
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.17-26
    • /
    • 1993
  • The layer that is directly influenced by ground surface is called the atmospheric boutsdary layer in comparison with the free atmosphere of higher layer. In the boundary layer, the changes of wind, temperature and coefficient of turbulent diffusion in altitude are large and have great influences an atmospheric diffusion. The purpose of this paper is to express the structure and characteristics of development of mixed layer by using laboratory experiment and numerical simulation. Laboratory experiment using water tank are performed that closely simulate the process of break up of nocturnal surface inversion above heated surface and its phenomena are analyzed by the use of horizontally averaged temperature which is observed. The result obtained from the laboratory experiment is compared with theoretical ones from ; \textsc{k}-\varepsilon numerical model. The results are summarized as follows. 1) The horizontally averaged temperature was found to vary smoothly with height and the mixed layer developed obviously being affected by the convection. 2) The mean height of mixed layer may be predicted as a function of time, knowing the mean initial temperature gradient. The experimental values are associated well with the theoretical values computed for value of the universal constant $C_r$= 0.16, our $C_r$ value is little smaller than the value found by Townsend and Deardoru et al.

  • PDF

Economic Valuation of Yeido Park: Application of Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Method (여의도공원의 경제적 가치평가: 二段階 二選 假想價値推定法을 적용하여)

    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.90-103
    • /
    • 1998
  • The purposes of this study are to estimate the economic value and reasonable entrance fee of the Yeido Park, which is under construction in Seoul, by conduct the face-to-face interview. A total of 645 daults were selected by two stage cluster sampling. The senario was designed to meet the requirements for doubgle-bounded dichotomous choice CVM, and distributed with the photograph to epict and compare the current and suggested conditions. A donation vehicle and entrance fee were utilized to find the possibility of strategic behaviors and protest zero, and to make the data estimatable tfor interval censored survival analysis. Date was calibrated by the survival analysis to eleminate the 'fat-tail problem'. Weibull distribution was assumed as a baseline distrubution. The mean WTP of donation and entrance fee was ₩5,281 and ₩783, respectively. The economic value of this park was determined by aggregating the mean value, giving a total WTP for the population of ₩36,861,645,000. This economic value was composed with the use value and existence value. The calibrationi of the Weibull proportional hazard model showed that nearness to the park, age, intention to isit the park, and educational attainment were significant independent variable to influence an amount of donation.

  • PDF

Prediction of movie audience numbers using hybrid model combining GLS and Bass models (GLS와 Bass 모형을 결합한 하이브리드 모형을 이용한 영화 관객 수 예측)

  • Kim, Bokyung;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.31 no.4
    • /
    • pp.447-461
    • /
    • 2018
  • Domestic film industry sales are increasing every year. Theaters are the primary sales channels for movies and the number of audiences using the theater affects additional selling rights. Therefore, the number of audiences using the theater is an important factor directly linked to movie industry sales. In this paper we consider a hybrid model that combines a multiple linear regression model and the Bass model to predict the audience numbers for a specific day. By combining the two models, the predictive value of the regression analysis was corrected to that of the Bass model. In the analysis, three films with different release dates were used. All subset regression method is used to generate all possible combinations and 5-fold cross validation to estimate the model 5 times. In this case, the predicted value is obtained from the model with the smallest root mean square error and then combined with the predicted value of the Bass model to obtain the final predicted value. With the existence of past data, it was confirmed that the weight of the Bass model increases and the compensation is added to the predicted value.

Determination of the Wear Limit to the Process Mean Shift Problem with Varying Product and Process Variance (생산량과 공정분산이 변하는 공정평균이동 문제의 마모한계 결정)

  • Lee, Do-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.95-100
    • /
    • 2020
  • Machines and facilities are physically or chemically degenerated by continuous usage. One of the results of this degeneration is the process mean shift. The representative type of the degeneration is wear of tool or machine. According to the increasing wear level, non-conforming products cost and quality loss cost are increasing simultaneously. Therefore a periodic preventive resetting the process is necessary. The total cost consists of three items: adjustment cost (or replacement cost), non-conforming cost due to product out of upper or lower limit specification, and quality loss cost due to difference from the process target value and the product characteristic value among the conforming products. In this case, the problem of determining the adjustment period or wear limit that minimizes the total cost is called the 'process mean shift' problem. It is assumed that both specifications are set and the wear level can be observed directly. In this study, we propose a new model integrating the quality loss cost, process variance, and production volume, which has been conducted in different fields in previous studies. In particular, for the change in production volume according to the increasing in wear level, we propose a generalized production quantity function g(w). This function can be applied to most processes and we fitted the g(w) to the model. The objective equation of this model is the total cost per unit wear, and the determining variables are the wear limit and initial process setting position that minimize the objective equation.

Estimation Method of Predicted Time Series Data Based on Absolute Maximum Value (최대 절대값 기반 시계열 데이터 예측 모델 평가 기법)

  • Shin, Ki-Hoon;Kim, Chul;Nam, Sang-Hun;Park, Sung-Jae;Yoo, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.103-110
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this paper, we introduce evaluation method of time series prediction model with new approach of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter sMAPE). There are some problems using MAPE and sMAPE. First MAPE can't evaluate Zero observation of dataset. Moreover, when the observed value is very close to zero it evaluate heavier than other methods. Finally it evaluate different measure even same error between observations and predicted values. And sMAPE does different evaluations are made depending on whether the same error value is over-predicted or under-predicted. And it has different measurement according to the each sign, even if error is the same distance. These problems were solved by Maximum Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter mMAPE). we used the absolute maximum of observed value as denominator instead of the observed value in MAPE, when the value is less than 1, removed denominator then solved the problem that the zero value is not defined. and were able to prevent heavier measurement problem. Also, if the absolute maximum of observed value is greater than 1, the evaluation values of mMAPE were compared with those of the other evaluations. With Beijing PM2.5 temperature data and our simulation data, we compared the evaluation values of mMAPE with other evaluations. And we proved that mMAPE can solve the problems that we mentioned.

Multiobjective Decision Model with Consideration of Flexibility in Sequential Capital Budgeting

  • Min, Kye-Ryo;Park, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-80
    • /
    • 1981
  • This paper explores a rational investment decision model in sequential capital allocation process under capital rationing. A method is proposed for measuring the new investment decision factor which is the flexibility that describes the future availability of invested funds. This flexibility is important in sequential decision process. Also presented is a multiobjective (MO) decision model into which flexibility is incorporated with the profit and risk factors. The effectiveness of this criterion is compared with the expected present value and the mean-semivariance criteria through a simulation model.

  • PDF

Separate Fuzzy Regression with Crisp Input and Fuzzy Output

  • Yoon, Jin-Hee;Choi, Seung-Hoe
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.301-314
    • /
    • 2007
  • The aim of this paper is to deal with a method to construct a separate fuzzy regression model with crisp input and fuzzy output data using a best response function for the center and the width of the predicted output. Also we introduce the crisp mean and variance of the predicted fuzzy value and also give some examples to compare a performance of the proposed fuzzy model with various other fuzzy regression model.

  • PDF

Numerical Analysis of Drag-Reducing Turbulent Flow by Polymer Injection with Reynolds Stress Model (레이놀즈응력모델을 이용한 난류의 고분자물질 첨가 저항감소현상에 대한 수치해석)

  • Ko, Kang-Hoon;Kim, Kwang-Yong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2000
  • A modified low-Reynolds-number Reynolds stress model is developed for the calculation of drag-reducing turbulent flows induced by polymer injection. The results without polymer injection are compared with the results of direct numerical simulation to ensure the validity of the basic model. In case of drag reduction, profiles of mean velocity and Reynolds stress components, in two-dimensional channel flow, obtained with a proper value of viscosity ratio are presented and discussed. Computed mean velocity profile is in very good agreement with experimental data. And, the qualitative behavior of Reynolds stress components with the viscosity ratio is also reasonable.

Lunar Effect on Stock Returns and Volatility: An Empirical Study of Islamic Countries

  • MOHAMED YOUSOP, Nur Liyana;WAN ZAKARIA, Wan Mohd Farid;AHMAD, Zuraidah;RAMDHAN, Nur'Asyiqin;MOHD HASAN ABDULLAH, Norhasniza;RUSGIANTO, Sulistya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.533-542
    • /
    • 2021
  • The main objective of this article is to investigate the existence of the lunar effect during the full moon period (FM period) and the new moon period (NM period) on the selected Islamic stock market returns and volatilities. For this purpose, the Ordinary Least Squares model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean model are employed using the mean daily returns data between January 2010 and December 2019. Next, the log-likelihood, Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Information Criterion value are analyzed to determine the best models for explaining the returns and volatility of returns. The empirical results have deduced that, during the NM period, excluding Malaysia, the total mean daily returns for all of the selected countries have increased mean daily returns in contrast to the mean daily returns during the FM period. The volatility shocks are intense and conditional volatility is persistent in all countries. Subsequently, the volatility behavior tends to have lower volatility during the FM period and NM period in the Islamic stock market, except Malaysia. This article also concluded that the ARCH (1) model is the preferred model for stock returns whereas GARCH-M (1, 1) is preferred for the volatility of returns.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on Rayleigh and Burr Type (Rayleigh형과 Burr형 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2014
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. In this field, SPC (Statistical process control) is a method of process management through application of statistical analysis, which involves and includes the defining, measuring, controlling, and improving of the processes. The proposed process involves evaluation of the parameter of the mean value function and hence the values of the mean value function at various inter failure times to develop relevant time control chart. In this paper, was proposed a control mechanism, based on time between failures observations using Rayleigh and Burr distribution property, which is based on Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). In this study, the proposed model is reliable in terms of hazard function, because it is more efficient in this area can be used as an alternative to the existing model. Through this study, software developers are considered by the various intended functions, prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes to feed to some extent shall be able to help.