• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mean Phase Error

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Development of groundwater level monitoring and forecasting technique for drought analysis (II) - Groundwater drought forecasting Using SPI, SGI and ANN (가뭄 분석을 위한 지하수위 모니터링 및 예측기법 개발(II) - 표준강수지수, 표준지하수지수 및 인공신경망을 이용한 지하수 가뭄 예측)

  • Lee, Jeongju;Kang, Shinuk;Kim, Taeho;Chun, Gunil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1021-1029
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    • 2018
  • A primary objective of this study is to develop a drought forecasting technique based on groundwater which can be exploit for water supply under drought stress. For this purpose, we explored the lagged relationships between regionalized SGI (standardized groundwater level index) and SPI (standardized precipitation index) in view of the drought propagation. A regional prediction model was constructed using a NARX (nonlinear autoregressive exogenous) artificial neural network model which can effectively capture nonlinear relationships with the lagged independent variable. During the training phase, model performance in terms of correlation coefficient was found to be satisfactory with the correlation coefficient over 0.7. Moreover, the model performance was described by root mean squared error (RMSE). It can be concluded that the proposed approach is able to provide a reliable SGI forecasts along with rainfall forecasts provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Description of Kinetic Behavior of Pathogenic Escherichia coli in Cooked Pig Trotters under Dynamic Storage Conditions Using Mathematical Equations

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Kim, Hyun Jung;Choi, Yukyung;Lee, Yewon;Kim, Yujin;Lee, Heeyoung;Kim, Sejeong;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.938-945
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    • 2020
  • A dynamic model was developed to predict the Escherichia coli cell counts in pig trotters at changing temperatures. Five-strain mixture of pathogenic E. coli at 4 Log CFU/g were inoculated to cooked pig trotter samples. The samples were stored at 10℃, 20℃, and 25℃. The cell count data was analyzed with the Baranyi model to compute the maximum specific growth rate (μmax) (Log CFU/g/h) and lag phase duration (LPD) (h). The kinetic parameters were analyzed using a polynomial equation, and a dynamic model was developed using the kinetic models. The model performance was evaluated using the accuracy factor (Af), bias factor (Bf), and root mean square error (RMSE). E. coli cell counts increased (p<0.05) in pig trotter samples at all storage temperatures (10℃-25℃). LPD decreased (p<0.05) and μmax increased (p<0.05) as storage temperature increased. In addition, the value of h0 was similar at 10℃ and 20℃, implying that the physiological state was similar between 10℃ and 20℃. The secondary models used were appropriate to evaluate the effect of storage temperature on LPD and μmax. The developed kinetic models showed good performance with RMSE of 0.618, Bf of 1.02, and Af of 1.08. Also, performance of the dynamic model was appropriate. Thus, the developed dynamic model in this study can be applied to describe the kinetic behavior of E. coli in cooked pig trotters during storage.

Evaluation of multi-objective PSO algorithm for SWAT auto-calibration (다목적 PSO 알고리즘을 활용한 SWAT의 자동보정 적용성 평가)

  • Jang, Won Jin;Lee, Yong Gwan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.803-812
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to develop Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) automatic calibration algorithm with multi-objective functions by Python, and to evaluate the applicability by applying the algorithm to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed modeling. The study area is the upstream watershed of Gongdo observation station of Anseongcheon watershed ($364.8km^2$) and the daily observed streamflow data from 2000 to 2015 were used. The PSO automatic algorithm calibrated SWAT streamflow by coefficient of determination ($R^2$), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ($NSE_Q$), and especially including $NSE_{INQ}$ (Inverse Q) for lateral, base flow calibration. The results between automatic and manual calibration showed $R^2$ of 0.64 and 0.55, RMSE of 0.59 and 0.58, $NSE_Q$ of 0.78 and 0.75, and $NSE_{INQ}$ of 0.45 and 0.09, respectively. The PSO automatic calibration algorithm showed an improvement especially the streamflow recession phase and remedied the limitation of manual calibration by including new parameter (RCHRG_DP) and considering parameters range.

Quantitative precipitation estimation of X-band radar using empirical relationship (경험적 관계식을 이용한 X밴드 레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Song, Jae In;Lim, Sanghun;Cho, Yo Han;Jeong, Hyeon Gyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), KDP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-KDP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K0.81DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Technique based on Adaptive Clustering (적응형 군집화 기반 확장 용이한 협업 필터링 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;Hong, Min-Sung;Lee, Won-Jin;Lee, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.73-92
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    • 2014
  • An Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique was proposed to solve the fundamental problems of collaborative filtering, such as cold-start problems, scalability problems and data sparsity problems. Previous collaborative filtering techniques were carried out according to the recommendations based on the predicted preference of the user to a particular item using a similar item subset and a similar user subset composed based on the preference of users to items. For this reason, if the density of the user preference matrix is low, the reliability of the recommendation system will decrease rapidly. Therefore, the difficulty of creating a similar item subset and similar user subset will be increased. In addition, as the scale of service increases, the time needed to create a similar item subset and similar user subset increases geometrically, and the response time of the recommendation system is then increased. To solve these problems, this paper suggests a collaborative filtering technique that adapts a condition actively to the model and adopts the concepts of a context-based filtering technique. This technique consists of four major methodologies. First, items are made, the users are clustered according their feature vectors, and an inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster is then assumed. According to this method, the run-time for creating a similar item subset or user subset can be economized, the reliability of a recommendation system can be made higher than that using only the user preference information for creating a similar item subset or similar user subset, and the cold start problem can be partially solved. Second, recommendations are made using the prior composed item and user clusters and inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster. In this phase, a list of items is made for users by examining the item clusters in the order of the size of the inter-cluster preference of the user cluster, in which the user belongs, and selecting and ranking the items according to the predicted or recorded user preference information. Using this method, the creation of a recommendation model phase bears the highest load of the recommendation system, and it minimizes the load of the recommendation system in run-time. Therefore, the scalability problem and large scale recommendation system can be performed with collaborative filtering, which is highly reliable. Third, the missing user preference information is predicted using the item and user clusters. Using this method, the problem caused by the low density of the user preference matrix can be mitigated. Existing studies on this used an item-based prediction or user-based prediction. In this paper, Hao Ji's idea, which uses both an item-based prediction and user-based prediction, was improved. The reliability of the recommendation service can be improved by combining the predictive values of both techniques by applying the condition of the recommendation model. By predicting the user preference based on the item or user clusters, the time required to predict the user preference can be reduced, and missing user preference in run-time can be predicted. Fourth, the item and user feature vector can be made to learn the following input of the user feedback. This phase applied normalized user feedback to the item and user feature vector. This method can mitigate the problems caused by the use of the concepts of context-based filtering, such as the item and user feature vector based on the user profile and item properties. The problems with using the item and user feature vector are due to the limitation of quantifying the qualitative features of the items and users. Therefore, the elements of the user and item feature vectors are made to match one to one, and if user feedback to a particular item is obtained, it will be applied to the feature vector using the opposite one. Verification of this method was accomplished by comparing the performance with existing hybrid filtering techniques. Two methods were used for verification: MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and response time. Using MAE, this technique was confirmed to improve the reliability of the recommendation system. Using the response time, this technique was found to be suitable for a large scaled recommendation system. This paper suggested an Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique with high reliability and low time complexity, but it had some limitations. This technique focused on reducing the time complexity. Hence, an improvement in reliability was not expected. The next topic will be to improve this technique by rule-based filtering.

Multi-residue Pesticide Analysis in Cereal using Modified QuEChERS Samloe Preparation Method (곡물류 중 잔류농약 다성분 분석을 위한 개선된 QuEChERS 시료 정제법의 개발)

  • Yang, In-Cheol;Hong, Su-Myeong;Kwon, Hye-Young;Kim, Taek-Kyum;Kim, Doo-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.314-334
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    • 2013
  • This study explored an efficient modified Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and safe (QuEChERS) method combined with liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization with tandem mass spectrometric detection for the analysis of residues of 76 pesticides in brown rice, barley and corn including acidic sulfonylurea herbicides. Formic acid (1%) acid in acetonitrile and dispersive solid phase extractions used for extraction of pesticides and clean-up of the extract respectively. Two fortified spikes at 50 and 200 ng $g^{-1}$ levels were performed for recovery test. Mean recoveries of majority of pesticides at two spike levels ranged from 73.2 to 132.2, 80.9 to 136.8, 66.6 to 143.5 for brown rice, barley and corn respectively with standard error (CV) less than 10%. Good linearity of calibration curves were achieved with $R^2$ > 0.9907 within the observed concentration ranged. The modified method also provided satisfactory results for sulfonylurea herbicides. The method was applied to the determination of residues of target pesticides in real samples. A total of 26 pesticides in 36 out of 98 tasted samples were observed. The highest concentration was observed for tricyclazole at 1.17 mg $kg^{-1}$ in brown rice. This pesticide in two brown rice samples exceeded their MRLs regulated for rice in republic of Korea. Except tricyclazole none of the observed pesticides' concentration was higher than their MRLs. The results reveal that the method is effectively applicable to routine analysis of residues of target pesticides in brown rice, barley and corn.

Mathematical Models to Predict Staphylococcus aureus Growth on Processed Cheeses

  • Kim, Kyungmi;Lee, Heeyoung;Moon, Jinsan;Kim, Youngjo;Heo, Eunjeong;Park, Hyunjung;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.217-221
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    • 2013
  • This study developed predictive models for the kinetic behavior of Staphylococcus aureus on processed cheeses. Mozzarella slice cheese and cheddar slice cheese were inoculated with 0.1 ml of a S. aureus strain mixture (ATCC13565, ATCC14458, ATCC23235, ATCC27664, and NCCP10826). The inoculated samples were then stored at $4^{\circ}C$ (1440 h), $15^{\circ}C$ (288 h), $25^{\circ}C$ (72 h), and $30^{\circ}C$ (48 h), and the growth of all bacteria and of S. aureus were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and mannitol salt agar, respectively. The Baranyi model was fitted to the growth data of S. aureus to calculate growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$; ${\log}CFU{\cdot}g^{-1}{\cdot}h^{-1}$), lag phase duration (LPD; h), lower asymptote (log CFU/g), and upper asymptote (log CFU/g). The growth parameters were further analyzed using the square root model as a function of temperature. The model performance was validated with observed data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated. At $4^{\circ}C$, S. aureus cell growth was not observed on either processed cheese, but S. aureus growth on the mozzarella and cheddar cheeses was observed at $15^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$, and $30^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values increased, but LPD values decreased as storage temperature increased. In addition, the developed models showed acceptable performance (RMSE = 0.3500-0.5344). This result indicates that the developed kinetic model should be useful in describing the growth pattern of S. aureus in processed cheeses.

Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Pyeonyuk marketed (시중 유통판매 중인 편육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, An-Na;Cho, Joon-Il;Son, Na-Ry;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Joo, In-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.206-210
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    • 2017
  • This study was performed to develope mathematical models for predicting growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in the processed meat product, pyeonyuk. Growth patterns of S. aureus in pyeonyuk were determined at the storage temperatures of 4, 10, 20, and $37^{\circ}C$ respectively. The number of S. aureus in pyeonyuk increased at all the storage temperatures. The maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$) and lag phase duration (LPD) values were calculated by Baranyi model. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values went up, while the LPD values decreased as the storage temperature increased from $4^{\circ}C$ to $37^{\circ}C$. Square root model and polynomial model were used to develop the secondary models for ${\mu}_{max}$ and LPD, respectively. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to evaluate the developed model and the fitness was determind to be 0.42. Therefore the developed predictive model was useful to predict the growth of S. aureus in pyeonyuk and it will help to prevent food-born disease by expanding for microbial sanitary management guide.

Development of a predictive model describing the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in processed meat product galbitang (식육추출가공품 중 갈비탕에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Son, Na-Ry;Kim, An-Na;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Joo, In-Sun;Kim, Soon-Han;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Cho, Joon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.274-278
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    • 2017
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to estimate the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus growth in processed meat product galbitang. Processed meat product galbitang was inoculated with 0.1 mL of S. aureus culture and stored at 4, 10, 20, $37^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ (maximum specific growth rate) and LPD (lag phase duration) values were calculated. The primary model was used to develop a response surface secondary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the square root model as a function of storage temperature. The developed model was confirmed by calculating RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values as statistic parameters. The LPD decreased, but ${\mu}_{max}$ increased with an increase in the storage temperature. At 4, 10, 20 and $37^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.99, 0.98, 0.99 and 0.99, respectively; RMSE was 0.39. The developed predictive growth model can be used to predict the risk of S. aureus contamination in processed meat product galbitang; hence, it has potential as an input model for the risk assessment.