• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mathematical theory

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The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea (기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Taehwan;Jung, Woo-Jin;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel (도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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A Study on the Optimal Limit State Design of Reinforced Concrete Flat Slab-Column Structures (한계상태설계법(限界狀態設計法)에 의한 철근(鐵筋)콘크리트 플래트 슬라브형(型) 구조체(構造體)의 최적화(最適化)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Park, Moon Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 1984
  • The aim of this study is to establish a synthetical optimal method that simultaneously analyze and design reinforced concrete flat slab-column structures involving multi-constraints and multi-design variables. The variables adopted in this mathematical models consist of design variables including sectional sizes and steel areas of frames, and analysis variable of the ratio of bending moment redistribution. The cost function is taken as the objective function in the formulation of optimal problems. A number of constraint equations, involving the ultimate limit state and the serviceability limit state, is derived in accordance with BSI CP110 requirements on the basis of limit state design theory. Both objective function and constraint equations derived from design variables and an analysis variable generally become high degree nonlinear problems. Using SLP as an analytical method of nonlinear optimal problems, an optimal algorithm is developed so as to analyze and design the structures considered in this study. The developed algorithm is directly applied to a few reinforced concrete flat slab-column structures to assure the validity of it and the possibility of optimization From the research it is found that the algorithm developed in this study is applicable to the optimization of reinforced concrete flat slab column structures and it converges to a optimal solution with 4 to 6 iterations regardless of initial variables. The result shows that an economical design can be possible when compared with conventional designs. It is also found that considering the ratio of bending moment redistribution as a variable is reasonable. It has a great effect on the composition of optimal sections and the economy of structures.

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The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Automobile Industry (국내 자동차산업의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Seo, Beom;Kim, Il-Gon;Park, Ji-Hun;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2018
  • This study explores an analytical mathematical model designed to estimate the optimal debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry, which has a more significant effect on the national economy than that of other industries, and attempts to estimate the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model is based on ROA and ROE which uses the debt ratio as an independent variable and employs ROS, TAT, and NFCL as the related parameters. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio is usually defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROA and ROE and is calculated using analytical procedures, such as by adding an equation that considers the debt ratio and the linearity relationship to the analytical model. This is because the optimal debt ratio can be calculated reliably by making use of an estimated value within a certain range, which is derived from more than two calculations rather than a single estimation starting from one calculation formula. In this study, for the estimation of the optimal debt ratio, the ROA and ROE are expressed as a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as the independent variable. Using this analysis procedure, the optimal debt ratio obtained using the data from the Korean automobile industry over a sixteen year period, which would optimize the profitability of the Korean automobile industry, was found to be 188% of the debt ratio in the ROA and 213% of the debt ratio in the ROE. This result was obtained by overcoming the problem of the reliability of the estimation value in spite of the limitations of the logical theory of this study, and can be interpreted as meaning that maintaining a debt ratio of 188% to 213% can enhance the profitability and reduce the risks in the Korean automobile industry. Furthermore, this indicates that the existing debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry is lower than the optimal value within the estimated range. Consequently, it is necessary for corporations to change their future debt ratio policies, given that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability, and to take into account the characteristics of the specific industry.

The Analysis of Successional Trends by Topographic Positions in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Chumbong (점봉산(點鳳産) 일대 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林)의 지형적(地形的) 위치(位置)에 따른 천이(遷移) 경향(傾向) 분석(分析))

  • Lee, Won Sup;Kim, Ji Hong;Jin, Guang Ze
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2000
  • Taking account of the structural variation on species composition by topography, the successional trends were comparatively analyzed for the three topographic positions (valley, mid-slope, and ridge) in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Chumbong area. The analysis was based upon the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings and seedlings over the overstory trees which will be eventually fallen down. This study adopted the plot sampling method, establishing twenty $20m{\times}20m$ quadrats and collecting vegetation and site data on each different topographic position. The transition matrix model, which was modified from the mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional trends and thereafter to predict the overstory species composition in the future for each different topographic position. In valley, the simulation indicated the remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of present dominants Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica from current 23% and 21% to around 4% of each at the steady state, which is predicted to take less than 200 years. On the other hand, the proportion of such species as Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Tilia amurensis, and Ulmus laciniata will increase at the steady state. In mid-slope, the result showed the remarkable decrease in the proportion of Juglans mandshurica, Kalopanax pictus, and Tilia amurensis from current 15%, 8%, and 15% to 2%, 1%, and 5%, respectively, at steady state predicted to take more than 250 years. In ridge, the current dominant Quercus mongolica was predicted to be decreased dramatically from 58% to 8% at steady state which could be achieved about 200 years. On the contrary, the proportion of Acer mono and Tilia amurensis will be increased from current 4% and 3% to more than 20% and 40%, respectively, at the steady state. Overall results suggested that the study forest is more likely seral rather than climax community. Even though a lot of variation is inevitable due to various kinds of site and vegetation development, the study forest is considered to be more than 200 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of overstory species composition.

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