• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov-Modeling

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Risk-Incorporated Trajectory Prediction to Prevent Contact Collisions on Construction Sites

  • Rashid, Khandakar M.;Datta, Songjukta;Behzadan, Amir H.;Hasan, Raiful
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2018
  • Many construction projects involve a plethora of safety-related problems that can cause loss of productivity, diminished revenue, time overruns, and legal challenges. Incorporating data collection and analytics methods can help overcome the root causes of many such problems. However, in a dynamic construction workplace collecting data from a large number of resources is not a trivial task and can be costly, while many contractors lack the motivation to incorporate technology in their activities. In this research, an Android-based mobile application, Preemptive Construction Site Safety (PCS2) is developed and tested for real-time location tracking, trajectory prediction, and prevention of potential collisions between workers and site hazards. PCS2 uses ubiquitous mobile technology (smartphones) for positional data collection, and a robust trajectory prediction technique that couples hidden Markov model (HMM) with risk-taking behavior modeling. The effectiveness of PCS2 is evaluated in field experiments where impending collisions are predicted and safety alerts are generated with enough lead time for the user. With further improvement in interface design and underlying mathematical models, PCS2 will have practical benefits in large scale multi-agent construction worksites by significantly reducing the likelihood of proximity-related accidents between workers and equipment.

Fast Text Line Segmentation Model Based on DCT for Color Image (컬러 영상 위에서 DCT 기반의 빠른 문자 열 구간 분리 모델)

  • Shin, Hyun-Kyung
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.17D no.6
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    • pp.463-470
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    • 2010
  • We presented a very fast and robust method of text line segmentation based on the DCT blocks of color image without decompression and binary transformation processes. Using DC and another three primary AC coefficients from block DCT we created a gray-scale image having reduced size by 8x8. In order to detect and locate white strips between text lines we analyzed horizontal and vertical projection profiles of the image and we applied a direct markov model to recover the missing white strips by estimating hidden periodicity. We presented performance results. The results showed that our method was 40 - 100 times faster than traditional method.

Modeling Partially Dependent Double Failure States of Pressure Safety Valves (압력안전밸브의 부분적 종속 이중 고장상태 모델링)

  • Choi, Soo Hyong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.40-43
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    • 2018
  • For pressure safety valves, open failure and close failure are partially dependent on each other. A method is proposed in this work that uses a Markov process model and a Weibull distribution model in order to construct a reliability model for two kinds of failure. A pressure safety valve model is obtained from a known open failure model, an induced close failure model, and a simultaneous failure model that reproduces recently reported inspection results. It is expected that the application of the proposed method can be expanded to quantitative risk assessment of various systems that have partially dependent multiple failure states.

Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimations from exponentiated log-logistic distribution based on progressive type-II censoring under balanced loss functions

  • Chung, Younshik;Oh, Yeongju
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.425-445
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    • 2021
  • A generalization of the log-logistic (LL) distribution called exponentiated log-logistic (ELL) distribution on lines of exponentiated Weibull distribution is considered. In this paper, based on progressive type-II censored samples, we have derived the maximum likelihood estimators and Bayes estimators for three parameters, the survival function and hazard function of the ELL distribution. Then, under the balanced squared error loss (BSEL) and the balanced linex loss (BLEL) functions, their corresponding Bayes estimators are obtained using Lindley's approximation (see Jung and Chung, 2018; Lindley, 1980), Tierney-Kadane approximation (see Tierney and Kadane, 1986) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (see Hastings, 1970; Gelfand and Smith, 1990). Here, to check the convergence of MCMC chains, the Gelman and Rubin diagnostic (see Gelman and Rubin, 1992; Brooks and Gelman, 1997) was used. On the basis of their risks, the performances of their Bayes estimators are compared with maximum likelihood estimators in the simulation studies. In this paper, research supports the conclusion that ELL distribution is an efficient distribution to modeling data in the analysis of survival data. On top of that, Bayes estimators under various loss functions are useful for many estimation problems.

Optimal Hierarchical Design Methodology for AESA Radar Operating Modes of a Fighter (전투기 AESA 레이더 운용모드의 최적 계층구조 설계 방법론)

  • Heungseob Kim;Sungho Kim;Wooseok Jang;Hyeonju Seol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2023
  • This study addresses the optimal design methodology for switching between active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar operating modes to easily select the necessary information to reduce pilots' cognitive load and physical workload in situations where diverse and complex information is continuously provided. This study presents a procedure for defining a hidden Markov chain model (HMM) for modeling operating mode changes based on time series data on the operating modes of the AESA radar used by pilots while performing mission scenarios with inherent uncertainty. Furthermore, based on a transition probability matrix (TPM) of the HMM, this study presents a mathematical programming model for proposing the optimal structural design of AESA radar operating modes considering the manipulation method of a hands on throttle-and-stick (HOTAS). Fighter pilots select and activate the menu key for an AESA radar operation mode by manipulating the HOTAS's rotary and toggle controllers. Therefore, this study presents an optimization problem to propose the optimal structural design of the menu keys so that the pilot can easily change the menu keys to suit the operational environment.

Reliability Analysis Modeling of Communication Networks Considering Rerouting (재경로 설정을 고려한 통신망의 신뢰도 분석 모델링)

  • Ro, Cheul-Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we develop queueing network models of communication networks with reliability model considering link failures. The reliability of a communication network with a virtual connection exposed to link failures is analyzed. Stochastic Reward Nets (SRN) is an extension of stochastic Petri nets and provides compact modeling facilities for system analysis. To get the performance index, appropriate reward rates are assigned to its SRN. It is shown that SRN modeling is well suited to specify, automatically generate and solve for reliability under rerouting. Markov models using SRN are developed and solved to depict various rerouting caused by link failures and reliability analysis in communication networks.

CONTINUOUS DIGIT RECOGNITION FOR A REAL-TIME VOICE DIALING SYSTEM USING DISCRETE HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

  • Choi, S.H.;Hong, H.J.;Lee, S.W.;Kim, H.K.;Oh, K.C.;Kim, K.C.;Lee, H.S.
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1994.06a
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    • pp.1027-1032
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    • 1994
  • This paper introduces a interword modeling and a Viterbi search method for continuous speech recognition. We also describe a development of a real-time voice dialing system which can recognize around one hundred words and continuous digits in speaker independent mode. For continuous digit recognition, between-word units have been proposed to provide a more precise representation of word junctures. The best path in HMM is found by the Viterbi search algorithm, from which digit sequences are recognized. The simulation results show that a interword modeling using the context-dependent between-word units provide better recognition rates than a pause modeling using the context-independent pause unit. The voice dialing system is implemented on a DSP board with a telephone interface plugged in an IBM PC AT/486.

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Modeling feature inference in causal categories (인과적 범주의 속성추론 모델링)

  • Kim, ShinWoo;Li, Hyung-Chul O.
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.329-347
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    • 2017
  • Early research into category-based feature inference reported various phenomena in human thinking including typicality, diversity, similarity effects, etc. Later research discovered that participants' prior knowledge has an extensive influence on these sorts of reasoning. The current research tested the effects of causal knowledge on feature inference and conducted modeling on the results. Participants performed feature inference for categories consisted of four features where the features were connected either in common cause or common effect structure. The results showed typicality effects along with violations of causal Markov condition in common cause structure and causal discounting in common effect structure. To model the results, it was assumed that participants perform feature inference based on the difference between the probabilities of an exemplar with the target feature and an exemplar without the target feature (that is, $p(E_{F(X)}{\mid}Cat)-p(E_{F({\sim}X)}{\mid}Cat)$). Exemplar probabilities were computed based on causal model theory (Rehder, 2003) and applied to inference for target features. The results showed that the model predicts not only typicality effects but also violations of causal Markov condition and causal discounting observed in participants' data.

Bayesian methods in clinical trials with applications to medical devices

  • Campbell, Gregory
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.561-581
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    • 2017
  • Bayesian statistics can play a key role in the design and analysis of clinical trials and this has been demonstrated for medical device trials. By 1995 Bayesian statistics had been well developed and the revolution in computing powers and Markov chain Monte Carlo development made calculation of posterior distributions within computational reach. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiative of Bayesian statistics in medical device clinical trials, which began almost 20 years ago, is reviewed in detail along with some of the key decisions that were made along the way. Both Bayesian hierarchical modeling using data from previous studies and Bayesian adaptive designs, usually with a non-informative prior, are discussed. The leveraging of prior study data has been accomplished through Bayesian hierarchical modeling. An enormous advantage of Bayesian adaptive designs is achieved when it is accompanied by modeling of the primary endpoint to produce the predictive posterior distribution. Simulations are crucial to providing the operating characteristics of the Bayesian design, especially for a complex adaptive design. The 2010 FDA Bayesian guidance for medical device trials addressed both approaches as well as exchangeability, Type I error, and sample size. Treatment response adaptive randomization using the famous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation example is discussed. An interesting real example of a Bayesian analysis using a failed trial with an interesting subgroup as prior information is presented. The implications of the likelihood principle are considered. A recent exciting area using Bayesian hierarchical modeling has been the pediatric extrapolation using adult data in clinical trials. Historical control information from previous trials is an underused area that lends itself easily to Bayesian methods. The future including recent trends, decision theoretic trials, Bayesian benefit-risk, virtual patients, and the appalling lack of penetration of Bayesian clinical trials in the medical literature are discussed.

A Design and Implementation of Reliability Analyzer for Embedded Software using Markov Chain Model and Unit Testing (내장형 소프트웨어 마르코프 체인 모델과 단위 테스트를 이용한 내장형 소프트웨어 신뢰도 분석 도구의 설계와 구현)

  • Kwak, Dong-Gyu;Yoo, Chae-Woo;Choi, Jae-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2011
  • As requirements of embedded system get complicated, the tool for analyzing the reliability of embedded software is being needed. A probabilistic modeling is used as the way of analyzing the reliability of a software and to apply it to embedded software controlling multiple devices. So, it is necessary to specialize that to embedded software. Also, existing reliability analyzers should measure the transition probability of each condition in different ways and doesn't consider reusing the model once used. In this paper, we suggest a reliability analyzer for embedded software using embedded software Markov chin model and a unit testing tool. Embedded software Markov chain model is model specializing Markov chain model which is used for analyzing reliability to an embedded software. And a unit testing tool has host-target structure which is appropriate to development environment of embedded software. This tool can analyze the reliability more easily than existing tool by automatically measuring the transition probability between units for analyzing reliability from the result of unit testing. It can also directly apply the test result updated by unit testing tool by representing software model as a XML oriented document and has the advantage that many developers can access easily using the web oriented interface and SVN store. In this paper, we show reliability analyzing of a example by so doing show usefulness of reliability analyzer.