• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.559-575
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• 2014

Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.285-301
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• 2010

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is an open marketplace for loans not from bank but from individuals online. Financial transactions are facilitated directly between individuals ("peers") without any intermediation of a traditional financial institution. A market study by renowned research company forecasts that P2P lending will grow very fast and a couple of P2P lending sites in Korea also are getting attentions by providing the alternative financial services. In P2P lending market, Lender will enjoy higher income generated from the loans in the form of interest than interest that can be earned by financial products provided by official financial institutions. Furthermore, lenders are able to decide who they would lend the money for themselves. Meanwhile, borrowers with low credit scores are able to finance their liquidity requirement with low cost and convenient access to the Internet. The objective of this paper is to introduce P2P lending and its issues of information asymmetry. We provide the insights from the case study of one of P2P lending sites in Korea and review the issues in P2P lending market as research topics. Specifically, information asymmetry issues in both traditional financial institutions and P2P lending are discussed.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.111-141
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• 2018

By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.222-235
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• 2010

After its remarkable success, "Avatar" brought another way of creating cinematic story; the stereoscopic 3-D cinema. Comparing conventional 2-D filmmaking, you need twice as much of budget and manpower in 3-D filmmaking because of the complicated process and slow production speed. The 3-D hardware like 3-D TV and 3-D projector are already showing at the retail stores while 3-D filmmaking is still in veil, and no major educational institution is yet to start 3-D related education. As 3-D movies get popular and demand more 3-D filmmaking professional crew, educating 3-D filmmaking to 2-D based film students will improve their hiring rate in the market. The successful result of the box office showing 3-D films like "Alice in Wonderland 3D" and "Titan 3D" forecasts that there will be more demand on 3-D related jobs very soon.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2013

It has been more than four years since the outbreak of global financial crisis. However, the world economy continues to be challenged with new crisis such as the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff issue of the U.S. The global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. It's no wonder that maritime business will be bearish since the global business affects the maritime business directly as well as indirectly. This paper, hence, aims to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business using the ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through January 2013. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. These forecasting performances are also compared with those of the random walk model. This study shows that the ARIMA models including Intervention-ARIMA have lower rmse than random walk model. This means that it's appropriate to forecast BDI using the ARIMA models. This paper predicts that the shipping market will be more bearish in 2013 than the year 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.19
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• pp.49-81
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• 2006

The private college education plays a crucial role both in training and supplying manpower needed for national economic growth and in increasing employability and personal labor earnings of individual workers. In oder for private college education to effectively respond to the rapid changes in industrial and occupational structures, it is necessary to secure appropriate level of investment funds and manage them efficiently. For this, it is required to discuss the structure, magnitude and management mechanism of the current private college education finance, changes in future demand for private college education and resultant changes in budget estimates, and new financial resources and allocation schemes. This study attempted to analyze current status and problems of private college education finance in Korea and, based on this analysis, to suggest future policy directions to improve private college education finance system. In order to make the private college education system in Korea competent and competitive enough to survive in international market, it is prerequisite to provide enough budget for the private college education and to manage the private college education finance in more efficient ways. First, for securing the adequacy and stability of investment budget for the private college education, it is recommended to 1) increase the government budget and put emphasis on the private college education; 2) diversify financial resources and induce financial contribution from private sector such as school juridical persons and enterprises. Second, for higher efficiency of financial management, it is recommended 1) make valid allocation standards and mechanism; 2) introduce competition system; 3) develop and utilize evaluation mechanism for the private college education finance to check adequacy, efficiency, accountability, and effectiveness; 4) apply consumer-oriented financial management scheme. In addition to the above policy measures, it is necessary to 1) make scientific forecasts of industrial and occupational structures periodically and apply these analyses to medium & long-term the private college education planning; and 2) redesign budget accounting system and develop the private college education performance indicators for the evaluation of accountability of the private college education institutions and administration institutes.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.1234-1243
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• 2021

This study intends to provide a forecast of the diffusion of countries participating in a newly proposed G to G mechanism named as the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea", modeled after the U.S. Foreign Military Sales(FMS). For this purpose, the study analyses 40 years of statistical data of U.S. FMS customers to find two parameters, coefficient of innovation and imitation, which explain the diffusion in FMS customers. Furthermore, the study forecasts the diffusion in international participation to the proposed mechanism taking account of the differences in the level of government competitiveness and the strength of defense industrial base of Korea and the U.S. This study also provides recommendations for accelerating the desired outcomes under the new program. While Korea is likely to have relative advantages over 'imitators' in the international market, it will need to gain competitiveness in high-level capabilities going beyond the realm of medium-high level systems, and present attractive alternatives for offsets.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2017

Previous studies, especially that by Lee (2014), showed how time series volatility models can be applied to the house price series. As the regional housing market trends, however, have shown significant differences of late, analysis with national data may have limited practical implications. This study applied volatility models in analyzing and forecasting regional house prices. The estimation of the AR(1)-ARCH(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1,1) models confirmed the ARCH and/or GARCH effects in the regional house price series. The RMSEs of out-of-sample forecasts were then compared to identify the best-fitting model for each region. The monthly rates of house price changes in the second half of 2017 were then presented as an example of how the results of this study can be applied in practice.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.221-230
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• 2021

In this study, a firm's internationalization level was measured as the ratio of foreign sales to total sales (FSTS) of individual firms. A demonstration was conducted with several control variables that affect the persistence of the firm's profits using the Sloan (1996) model as a proxy for its primary relationship between net profit and the next profit. An empirical analysis of the end-December settlement firms listed on the securities market from 2011 to 2016 was conducted using a fixed-effect model to confirm that the persistence of the firm's internationalization and accounting profits was positive at the 1% significant level, indicating that the persistence of the firm's profits also increased as the level of individual firm's internationalization increased. In addition, the firm size, financial soundness, cash accompanying, growth, and investment ability, consistent with forecasts, represented a statistically significant (+) relationship with globalization. These results suggest that firms can maintain and expand their value stably by securing new overseas markets and promoting growth by implementing internationalization strategies.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.99-107
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• 2015

In this era of smart convergent environment wherein all industries are converged on ICT infrastructure and industries and cultures come together, the information and communication construction business is becoming more important. For the information and communication construction business to continue growing, it is very important to ensure that technical manpower is stably supplied. To date, however, there has been no theoretically methodical analysis of manpower supply and demand in the information and communications construction business. The need for the analysis of manpower supply and demand has become even more important after the government announced the road map for the development of construction business in December 2014 to seek measures to strengthen the human resources capacity based on the mid- to long-term manpower supply and demand analysis. As such, this study developed the manpower supply and demand forecast model for the information and communications construction business and presented the result of manpower supply and demand analysis. The analysis suggested that an overdemand situation would arise since the number of graduates of technical colleges decreased beginning 2007 because of fewer students entering technical colleges and due to the restructuring and reform of departments. In conclusion, it cited the need for the reeducation of existing manpower, continuous upgrading of professional development in the information and communications construction business, and provision of various policy incentives.