• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.17-42
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• 2008

This study tried to build a structure model for the Korean flatfish aquaculture market by a system dynamics approach. A pool of several factors to influence the market structure was built. In addition, several reasonable factors related to the flatfish aquaculture market were selected to construct the causal loop diagram (CLD). Then the related stock/flow diagrams of the causal loop diagrams were constructed. This study had been forecasting a production price and supply, demand, and consumption volume for the flatfish market by a monthly basis, and then made some validation to the forecasting. Finally, four governmental policies such as import, storage, reduction of input, and demand control were tentatively evaluated by the created model. As a result, the facts that the demand control policy is most effective, and import and storage policies are moderately effective were found.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.25-35
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• 2005

This paper describes the mechanism for new investment to appear in waves of boom and bust causing alternative periods of over and under supply of electricity in Korean market. A system dynamics model was developed to describe the dynamic behavior of new investment in Korean market. The simulation results show the boom and bust cycle in the new investments. When the market price is high, investors decide to build new power plants. However, it takes some delay time to complete new power plants. When the new power plants are being added into the grid, the supply increases and the wholesale price begins to decrease. This causes the cancellation of new power plant or delay the construction. This mechanism causes the boom and bust cycle in new investment.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.5-23
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• 2012

This paper studies dynamic relationship between cash market, forward market, and options market, from the perspective of systems thinking. It is shown that an exogenous shock to forward market can yield almost the same impact to the cash market, given a practically reasonable condition, but not vice versa. As far as options market is concerned, it matters what kind of options we deal with, who are long the option, and whether the option market maker performs dynamic hedging or not. In some cases, it is possible for the spot price to become unstable and diverge rather violently due to a strong negative feedback between the markets.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.133-145
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to extend and globalize the Walrasian evolutionary cobweb model in an independent single local market of Brock and Hommes ([3]), to the case of the global market evolution over an infinite chain of many local markets interacting each other through a diffusion of prices between them. In the case of decreasing demands and increasing supplies with a weighted average of rational and naive predictors, we investigate, via the methods of Lattice Dynamical System, the spatial-temporal behaviors of global market dynamics and show that some kind of bounded dynamics of global market do exist and can be controlled by using the parameters in the model.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-40
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• 2011

This paper focuses on the sensitivity analysis for the calibration of an agent-based simulation that analyzes the brand-level diffusion dynamics of competing products in the domestic premium mid-sized car market. In this paper, we employ a consumer-agent model that imitates the purchasing characteristics and behaviors of the consumers. The group of consumer agents that are socially interconnected represents a virtual market. By spreading the product information from previous adopters to potential consumer agents in the virtual market, the word-of-mouth phenomenon emerges like in the real market. The phenomenon influences the product choice of potential consumer agents that causes the variation of the product diffusion dynamics. In this simulation model, it is important to calibrate the virtual market parameters(e.g., ratio of innovators, social network structure, purchase time decision method) so that the virtual market can simulate the real market. However, it is difficult to measure these parameters directly from the real market. In this paper, we analyze the diffusion dynamics of simulations under various conditions in comparison with real sales data to calibrate the parameters.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.56 no.10
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• pp.1731-1737
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• 2007

The Korea electricity wholesale market is operated under the cost-based-pool system and the government regulation to the new generation capacities in order to insure the resource adequacy. The goal of government's regulation is the electricity market stability by attracting proper generation investment while keeping the reliability of system. Generation companies must mandatory observe that government plan by now. But if the restructuring is to be complete, generation companies should not bear any obligation to invest unless their profitability is guaranteed. Namely the investors' behavior will be affected by the market prices. In this paper, the system dynamics model for Korea wholesale electricity market to examine whether competitive market can help to stabilize is developed and analyzes the investors behavior. The simulation results show that market controlled by government will be operated stable without resulting in price spike but there is no lower price because of maintaining the reasonable reserve margin. However, if the competition is introduced and the new investment is determined by the investor's decision without government intervention, the benefits from lower wholesale price are expected. Nevertheless, the volatility in the wholesale market increases, which increases the investment risks.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.27-49
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• 2006

A system dynamics model is developed to investigate the applicability of the agent based modeling concept in the system dynamics model. The assumed problem is to forecast the size and structure of the organization with the developing market environment. The agent based modeling concept is applied to the organization part, and the other parts of the model such as market, facilities, etc. are developed with the traditional system dynamics technique. The simulation results show the agent based modeling part can be combined with the traditional system dynamics modeling with more precisions. However, the complexity increases and the simulation times are longer than those of the traditional method.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.57-80
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• 2006

Nuclear technology made a great contribution to the national economy and society by localization of nuclear power plant design, and by stabilization of electricity price, etc. It is very important to conduct the retrospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution to the national economy and society, but it is more important to conduct prospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution. The term "technology value" is often used in the prospective analysis to value the result of technology development. There are various definitions of technology value, but generally it means the increment of future revenue or the reduction of future cost by technology development. These technology valuation methods are widely used in various fields (information technology or energy technology, etc). The main objective of this research is to develop valuation methodology that represents unique characteristics of nuclear power technology. The valuation methodology that incorporates market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The technology valuation model which consists of five modules (electricity demand forecast module, technology development module, market share module, electricity generation module, total cost module) to incorporate market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The nuclear power technology value assessed by this technology valuation model was 3 times more than the value assessed by the conventional method. So it was confirmed that it is very important to incorporates market share changes of generation technologies. The valuation results of nuclear power technology in this study can be used as policy data for ensuring the benefits of nuclear power R&D (Research and Development) investment.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.77
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• pp.200-254
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• 2016

This paper deals with historical changes in the market of Korean newsprint paper since 1945. Particularly, this paper does not examine only the structure of supply and demand in the newsprint paper market, but also general dynamics of the market from a perspective of Harold Innis's socioeconomic history. As a result, this paper concludes that the general dynamics of Korean newsprint paper market has persistently responded to a stimulus from external markets due to a scarcity of natural resources. To more concretely put it, until 1967 when the newsprint paper market was opened, Korean government had tried to control both newspaper industries and paper manufacture businesses by the matters of price and distribution of the newsprint paper. But since the market was opened, a general dynamics of the Korean newsprint paper market has been vulnerable to uncoordinated properties of external markets. Consequently, even though 'self-sufficiency' of newsprint papers was achieved in 1974, the price of newsprint papers has been often rising and falling.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.135-163
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• 2013

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.