• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.107-123
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• 2008

Recently, due to the globalization of business, the efficient supply chain management(SCM) is considered as the key initiatives of business activities, and the leading logistics companies are trying to provide the differentiated 3PL services to meet their customers' needs. The domestic 3PL market scale, however, is still small and the logistics companies' competence is not good enough, so that 3PL companies need to concentrate on their logistics strategies and the government's supports and related policies are required. In this point of view, we developed the system dynamics model and forecasted middle or long-term domestic 3PL market. Through the result, we suggest the roles of government and the directions of policies to support the domestic 3PL market effectively.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1015-1022
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• 2009

Currently, Korean real estate market has experienced cooling down of the business because of the global economic crisis which resulted from the subprime mortgage lending practice. In response, the Korean government has enforced various policies at the base of deregulating real estate speculation, such as increasing Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to stimulate housing demand and supply. However, these policies seemed to result in deep confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analysis for housing market forecasting, especially international financial crisis on Korean real estate market, has been partial and fragmentary, therefore comprehensive solution and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate and real estate financial market including causal nexus between market determining factors. In an integrated point of view, applying the system dynamics modeling, the paper aims at proposing Korean Real Estate and Mortgage market dynamics models based on fundamental principles of housing market determined by supply and demand. We also find the impact of deregulation policies focusing on mortgage loan which is the main factors of policies.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.42-52
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• 2009

최근 수십 년 간, 전 세계적으로 주택 시장에서 주기적인 가격 상승과 하락이 반복되는 변동성의 양상이 나타남에 따라, 주택 정책 결정자는 시장 안정화에 가장 큰 초점을 두고 정책을 수립하고 있다. 특히, 2000년대의 주택가격 버블화 현상은 시장의 불안정성을 더욱 심화시키고 있다. 이에 따라 우리나라는 주택시장 안정화를 위한 방편으로 후분양제도 도입 및 분양가 상한제 확대 시행으로 대표되는 분양 제도 변화를 시도하고 있다. 그러나 정책 실효성에 대한 논란은 계속되고 있으며, 시장 참여자는 분양제도 변화에 따른 주택시장의 영향을 예측하는 데 있어 많은 어려움을 겪고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 주택의 수요와 공급에 의해 결정되는 주택시장의 기본 원리를 바탕으로 시스템다이내믹스(System Dynamics)를 이용하여 주택시장 기본 모형을 구축하고자 한다. 또한 분양제도의 주요내용을 분석한 후 주택 시장 모형에 적용, 모형의 작동 방향을 분석함으로써 분양제도의 변화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향에 대해 밝히고자 한다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.5-26
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• 2010

To revitalize the trucking market, many studies are being done but it still has a lot of problems such as imbalance between supply and demand, poor profit structure of truck owners, ect. Therefore, it aims to study what kinds of prerequisite are needed to solve these problems through analyzing system structure and mechanism of the market. To achieve it, System Dynamics methodology, appropriate to make a simulation model and analyze dynamics of the system, is utilized. To obtain an empirical research point of view, time series data related on trucking market-provided by The Korea Transport Institute-are used. In addition, interview with a local representative logistics company and a ICD(Inland Container Depot) operation company is performed to find out technical and functional supporting factors to solve the existing problems in the market.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.55-64
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• 2020

2011년 한-EU 자유무역협정 발효 이후, 한국 자동차 시장은 급성장하였으며 시장 내 기업 간 경쟁 양상은 심화되고 있다. 유럽산 자동차 기업은 가격 경쟁력을 보유하게 되었고, 이로 인해 한국 자동차 기업과의 경쟁이 격화되었다. 이와 같은 상황 속에서 한국 자동차 시장에 관한 다양한 연구가 수행되어왔으나, 시장 영향요인 분석과 소비자 분석 등의 연구가 주를 이루었고 시장 내 경쟁 다이나믹스 분석에 관한 연구는 전무한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 한국 자동차 시장 내 주요 기업인 현대자동차, 기아자동차, 메르세데스-벤츠, BMW의 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하였다. Lotka-Volterra(LV) 모형을 사용하여 주요 기업들의 경쟁 관계를 모델링하였고, Moving Window 기법을 적용하여 시간의 흐름에 따른 기업 간 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하고 이를 정량적으로 도출하였다. 효과적인 해석을 위해, 도출된 경쟁 다이나믹스는 다양한 영향요인을 바탕으로 세분화되어 분석하였다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study investigates market barriers in increasing the market share of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). In particular, this study first conceptualizes the AFVs market model with the aid of generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme. Among four generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme, the market structure of AFVs can be explained by the 'relative achievement' archetype. Starting from the generic system archetype, this study extends the model boundary step by step to take account of various model assumptions necessary to simulate the model numerically. If there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFVs even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked into the current structure. There are several possible policy options to break the 'locked-in' structure of the car market, such as subsidies on vehicles, subsidies on fuels, and a niche management policy.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.151-157
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• 2013

Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, the Korean housing market has plummeted. However, the deposit prices of the Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, had been increasing. This increase of Chonsei prices can be a threat to low-income people, most of whom prefer to live in houses with a Chonsei contract. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply, will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In conclusion, the Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristics and different price behavior with housing price in the short and long term period. We found that unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain their intended effectiveness on both markets.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.25-40
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• 2001

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.40-62
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• 2010

본 연구는 국제물류주선업체의 부서 간 역학관계가 시장지향성에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지, 그리고 시장지향성이 관계몰입을 통해 고객성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 규명하여 국제물류주선업체의 경쟁력을 향상시키고자 실시하였다. 연구결과 부서 간 연계를 통해 부서 간 갈등수준이 낮아져야 시장지향성이 높아진다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 하지만 시장지향성이 고객성과에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 유의한 영향력을 확인할 수 없었으며, 시장지향성은 관계몰입이라는 매개변수를 통해 고객성과에 유의한 영향을 미친다는 점이 밝혀졌다. 현재 우리나라의 국제물류주선업의 시장은 매우 경쟁적이며, 경쟁전략의 대부분이 비용전략이며, 비용전략은 다른 경쟁기업이 고객에게 제공하는 비용에 따라 수시로 바뀌는 실정임을 비추어 볼 때, 국제물류주선업체들은 출혈경쟁을 지양하고, 고객기업과의 신뢰형성과 장기적인 관계유지를 위해 노력을 기울여야 경쟁력이 강화될 것으로 보인다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.129-153
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• 2015

Mandatory shutdown policy of the juvenile protection act was enforced in December 2011 to prevent game addiction of the youth. However, the size of game market in Korea seems to be reduced significantly after implementation of the shutdown policy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of current government regulations on Korean online game market. Based on empirical evidences and results from the related literature, we developed several causal loop diagrams(CLD) and system dynamics models. The CLD include sub-diagrams of innovation processes, user commitments, and operational costs. We conducted simulation analyses under various policy scenarios, adopting Normalized Unit Modelling By Elementary Relationship(NUMBER). Our results show that first, the impact of time regulation on the number of users is greater than the impact of content regulation. Second, the quality of domestic online game appears more elastic to regulations than the quality of foreign online game. The results of this study suggest that the deregulation in Korean online game market can narrow the gap in market outcomes between domestic and foreign online games. Some recommendations for future study are suggested.