• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.381-388
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• 2018

This study proposes marine traffic volume estimation method considering ship speed, a factor excluded from the existing method. Ten days of GICOMS marine traffic data from Pyeongtaek and Dangjin ports was applied to this study. As a result, converted traffic volume with the proposed estimation method showed an increase of 4.41 (${\pm}0.99$) times or decrease of 0.59 (${\pm}0.04$) at most, compared with the existing estimation method. Average marine traffic congestion for each time applying the proposed estimation method showed an increase of 1.43 (${\pm}0.10$) compared with the existing estimation method. The maximum marine traffic congestion for each time was 1.62 (${\pm}0.34$) times higher compared with the existing estimation method. Marine traffic peak time, defined as the highest point of marine traffic congestion, was evaluated to be different from that of the existing method because of distribution of vessel speed. In conclusion, considering ship speed is necessary when estimating marine traffic volume to produce a practical estimate of marine traffic capacity.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.612-620
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• 2013

In this study, time series analysis was tried, which is widely applied to demand forecast of diverse fields such as finance, economy, trade, and so on, different from previous regression analysis. Future marine traffic volume was forecasted on the basis of data of the number of ships entering Incheon port from January 1996 to June 2013, through courses of stationarity verification, model identification, coefficient estimation, and diagnostic checking. As a result of prediction January 2014 to December 2015, February has less traffic volume than other months, but January has more traffic volume than other months. Also, it was found out that Incheon port was more proper to ARIMA model than exponential smoothing method and there was a difference of monthly traffic volume according to seasons. The study has a meaning in that future traffic volume was forecasted per month with time series model. Also, it is judged that forecast of future marine traffic volume through time series model will be the more suitable model than prediction of marine traffic volume with previous regression analysis.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.455-462
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• 2007

This paper estimated the future traffic volume incoming and outgoing in Incheon port, and analyzed the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon. The cargo traffic in 2020 will increase twice as much as in 2005 according to the national ports basis plan. The maritime traffic will increase greatly consequently. Also, MOMAF has operated tidal current signal operation center to prevent marine accidents caused by current influence on vessels navigating through Incheon. However the quantitative effect is not known because there is no analysis about its value. Therefore the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon was calculated with contingent valuation method(CVM), and the information value was analyzed considering future traffic in this study. Thus, the annual information value was calculated at about $170{\sim}280$ million won, considered traffic volume using the information of tidal current directly in 2020 since 2006.