• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.27-39
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• 2022

The exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable that influences internal and external balances. Nepal follows a dual exchange rate such that the Nepali rupee (NPR) is pegged with the Indian rupee (INR) but floats with the United States dollar (USD) and all other currencies. There have been very few studies on the exchange rate of Nepal, of which the majority focus on the bivariate relationship between exchange rate and another variable. However, this paper analyses the multivariate relationship between the USD-NPR exchange rate and major macroeconomic variables. Determinants of Nepal's exchange rate have been derived with multiple regression using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach. Since the explanatory variables could not significantly capture the movement of the dependent variable, a long-run relationship between Nepal and India's exchange rate has been analyzed using Engle-Granger cointegration to establish a relationship as suggested by a graphical representation. This explains that Nepal's exchange rate long run is determined by India's exchange rate than its own fundamentals. In addition, the macro-linkages of Nepal's macroeconomic variables have been analyzed using Standard Vector Autoregressive models followed by impulse response analysis which is useful for policy decisions. Some policy implications indicating the sustainability of Nepal's pegged regime have been drawn based on the empirical analysis.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 2020

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic determinants of capital flight. Research design, data and methodology: With five determinants, this survey was conducted by Eviews 10, and the ordinary least squares (OLS) as a statistical method was applied for examining the research hypothesis. The five determinants are a budget deficit, economic growth, inflation rate, the exchange rate, and sovereign rating. The capital flight measurement uses the World Bank residual approach. The data derive from the Central Bank of Indonesia, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, OECD, and Moody's Investor Service. Results: The result considers that economic growth, the exchange rate, and the sovereign rating will decrease capital flight. In addition, the budget deficit and the inflation rate will increase capital flight. The sovereign rating decreases capital flight bigger than the other determinants. In addition, the exchange rate is statistically significant. Conclusions: The most influential problem of capital flight in Indonesia is because of non-macroeconomics factor political issue, corruption, bad regulation, and others. That's why the investment climate in Indonesia is still not secure. We propose that the regime would have to amend the business rule for reducing capital, raising the investment climate, and demonstrating the creative industry.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the determinants of macroeconomic and institutional stability on the development of the global sukuk market by controlling the effects of population. This study uses panel data namely GDP per-capita, exchange rate, and inflation as the proxies for macroeconomic stability sourced from the World Development Index, and six dimensions of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as institutional proxies sourced from WGI-World Bank. To make robust the relationship between macroeconomics and institutional on the global sukuk market, the population (POP) variable was included as a control variable. The development of sukuk uses a proxy for sukuk issuance in the International Islamic Financial Market, for the annual period from 2002-2017. The data was analyzed using the General Method of Moment, and the results show that by controlling the population effects that proved to be significant, GDP per-capita and the rule of law have a significant impact on the development of sukuk, especially when incorporating population effects as control variables, whereby further ascertaining the effect of each macroeconomic-stability variable and institutional stability on sukuk development, especially inflation, found not to affect sukuk development. These results also confirm the previous findings, whereby inflation remains controllable at a certain level for economic development.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.7-14
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• 2018

Purpose - Social welfare is a social insurance system that provides funds and services for all citizens to maximize their life quality. Its ultimate goal is to alleviate social contradictions. Therefore, this paper explores the determinants of social welfare in terms of macroeconomics. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the vector error correction model, the annual time series from 1990 to 2017 will be used to conduct an empirical analysis. The real GDP, the real income, the inflation and the degree of openness will be treated as independent variables. The input of social welfare will be treated as a dependent variable. These variables will be used to perform the cointegration test and the vector error correction model to explore how the macroeconomic variables affect social welfare both in long run and short run. Result - Via the empirical analysis, it can be summarized that the real GDP, the real income and the degree of openness are the driving determinants to enlarge the social welfare. Conversely, the inflation is the obstructive determinant to reduce the social welfare. Conclusion - The positive and negative determinants of social welfare exist simultaneously, China's government should take macroeconomic regulation and control to balance them to enlarge social welfare.

• Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-9
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• 2018

Recently, the rapid development of artificial intelligence industry has resulted in a great change in our modern society. Due to this background, this paper takes the United Kingdom as an example to explore the determinants of artificial intelligence industry in terms of United Kingdom's macroeconomics. The quarterly time series from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. In this paper, the real GDP, the employment figure, the real income, the foreign direct investment, the government budget and the inflation will be regarded as independent variables. The input of artificial intelligence industry will be regarded as a dependent variable. These macroeconomic variables will be applied to perform an empirical analysis so as to explore how the macroeconomic variables affect the artificial intelligence industry. The findings show that the real GDP, the real income, the foreign direct investment and the government budget are the driving determinants to promote the development of artificial intelligence industry. Conversely, the employment figure and the inflation is the obstructive determinants to hamper the development of artificial intelligence industry.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.173-183
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• 2020

The paper investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam in 2000-2019 period. This study uses difference Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) to analyse panel data officially provided by General Statistical Office of Vietnam. The results show that market size impacts positively significant on FDI attraction: 1% -1.45% (PMG) and 1% -1.25% (GMM). Besides, some other factors have positive influences as labor force, macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic stability and skilled labor. Meantime, the trade openness negatively affects FDI inflows in the short-term, while not being statistically significant in the long-term. Moreover, economic shocks often have a negative impact on FDI inflows. The findings of this study lead to the following recommendations. First, authorities should pay special attention to encourage economic growth rate in Vietnam to expand market size because this is the first priority of foreign investors. Second, authorities need to continue increasing the rate of skilled labor, especially highly qualified management force, engineers and well-skilled workers. Third, the authorities should adjust trade openness to boost the role of its determinant in attracting FDI inflows. Fourth, macroeconomic stability needs to be governed by international standards in order to secure the belief of foreign investors in the long-term.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.89-101
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• 2022

International remittances play a crucial role in the economic management of each country, especially in developing countries. Its functions are diverse, including procurement of foreign currency, serving as a cushion for the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves by reducing the adverse external shocks, driving economic growth, easing the gap between the rich and the poor, and maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, previous studies on remittances have mainly focused on macro-and micro-economic aspects to analyze the determinants. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the determinants of remittances in 122 countries over the past 25 years from macroeconomic and educational aspects as well as institutional qualities. In addition, given the fact that almost all of the world's top 10 recipient countries in terms of GDP and total remittance size are developing countries, developed and developing countries are separated and analyzed for comparison, assuming that there may be a difference between the two groups. Results show that the coefficients of developed and developing countries are different in four areas: Control of Corruption (CC), Rule of Law (RL), Voice and Accountability (VA), and Regulatory Quality (RQ) among the six institutional variables of interest in this study. These results implicate that even the same institutions and policies should be applied and implemented differently depending on the circumstances of each country. In addition, as suggested by the World Bank, policymakers in all countries should double their policy efforts to lower the costs of remittance and improve access to the financial system for immigrants or dispatched workers to ensure a steady inflow of remittances.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.12
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• pp.95-105
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• 2021

A prerequisite of a sound financial system is effective channeling of financial resources to efficient users; hence maximizing economic and societal welfare. To that end, the prevalence of bad loans in banks in emerging economies is a major policy concern. In an attempt to add to the growing body of literature explaining the interrelationship between macroeconomic and firm-specific factors, and non-performing loans (NPL), this paper examines data from 24 scheduled commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2019. Macroeconomic factors as well as firm-specific factors related to profitability, capital strength, and efficiency are considered. Panel data regression analysis is performed to estimate pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models. Following the necessary testing, it was found that the fixed effects model with robust standard error is appropriate. Results show that return on assets and inflation have a negative influence on NPL, but GDP growth has a favorable impact. The paper concludes by asserting that the evidence supports similar findings from studies both in Bangladesh and elsewhere and it is noted that a combination of these macroeconomic and firm-specific factors explains only a small portion of the total variation in NPL.

• SUVANNABHUMI
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.215-244
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• 2023

This study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic indicators such as foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment, trade, inflation, unemployment, population, and governance indicators on economic growth and points out the GDP growth rate in 2002- 2019 among ASEAN countries. Data were compiled from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the World Bank, and the effect of variables on GDP was predicted using the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), fixed effects model (FEM), and random effects model (REM) methods. As a measure of growth, the GDP growth rate has been taken; FDI and domestic investment, trade, inflation, and governance indicators are positively connected and have an influence on economic growth in these ASEAN countries; domestic investment, population, and unemployment have a negative relationship to economic growth. The macroeconomic indicators and institutional stability of the nation have an effect on its economic growth. Comprehensive institutional stability and well-laid macroeconomic policies are required for growth to materialize.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.19-30
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• 2020

This paper investigates, in a single equation framework, the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants on micro-, small- and medium-sized loans by commercial banks in Indonesia. This study uses a sample of 790 observations from 79 commercial banks in Indonesia over the years 2006-2015. This study uses two estimation methods for our panel regressions: static and dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) panel estimator. In static relationships, the literature usually uses the least square methods on fixed effects (FE) or random effects (RE). I found evidence that all banks, bank profitability and size are positively and significantly related to micro-, small- and medium-sized loans, while the coefficients of liquidity are significantly positive in all specifications, except government banks which is significantly negative. The relationship between risk and credit growth is negative for non-government banks. All estimated equations show that the effect of the capital variable on lending banks to MSMEs is not important in government banks and non-government banks. Finally, macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and gross domestic product, clearly affect the lending of the banking sector particularly non-state banks. The findings have several policy implications to Indonesia government, regulatory authority and bank managers in order to improve bank profitability through bank lending.