• Asian Journal of Business Environment
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.29-36
• /
• 2020

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic determinants of capital flight. Research design, data and methodology: With five determinants, this survey was conducted by Eviews 10, and the ordinary least squares (OLS) as a statistical method was applied for examining the research hypothesis. The five determinants are a budget deficit, economic growth, inflation rate, the exchange rate, and sovereign rating. The capital flight measurement uses the World Bank residual approach. The data derive from the Central Bank of Indonesia, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, OECD, and Moody's Investor Service. Results: The result considers that economic growth, the exchange rate, and the sovereign rating will decrease capital flight. In addition, the budget deficit and the inflation rate will increase capital flight. The sovereign rating decreases capital flight bigger than the other determinants. In addition, the exchange rate is statistically significant. Conclusions: The most influential problem of capital flight in Indonesia is because of non-macroeconomics factor political issue, corruption, bad regulation, and others. That's why the investment climate in Indonesia is still not secure. We propose that the regime would have to amend the business rule for reducing capital, raising the investment climate, and demonstrating the creative industry.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.1-39
• /
• 2011

This study discusses the phenomenon behind various forms of macroeconomic volatility faced by countries in terms of industrial structure through empirical analysis, and in the process attempts to validate the role of the service industry. The analysis shows that economic fluctuations in Korea have been significantly improved, mainly due to the country risk. However, Korea is still exposed to the impact of external shocks, which is attributable to the manufacturing-centered industrial structure. Under such industrial structure, it is inevitable for the Korean economy to be continuously exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations caused by global sectoral shocks. So, in order to alleviate business fluctuations, it is necessary to enhance the role of non-tradable sectors that account for most of the service industry.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.61
• /
• pp.165-190
• /
• 2014

The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
• /
• v.5 no.3
• /
• pp.1-32
• /
• 2017

Purpose - This study is to analyze the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia and the leading countries- partners and to research GDP, the debt, the foreign trade and other indicators. This main indicator is using in regulation in the economic stability of country, of stability of trade with countries-partners. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper used the amount of data to be analyzed at the present stage, from the 2010 to 2015 in Russia. In order to assess trends of development, the array of data on the indicators used for the 1995-2017. The data analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. Results - Hypothesis 1. In the recent years GDP has tended to increase in the most countries of the world. In Russia and its structure of branch of economics is uneven. Hypothesis 2. The foreign trade turnover also has tended to grow. The foreign trade balance in Russia and in the leading countries-partners has a positive balance, dominated by the export of goods. Conclusions - This paper finds that the foreign trade turnover also has tends to grow. The foreign trade balance in Russia and in the leading countries-partners has a positive balance, dominated by the export of goods.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.52-64
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on air passenger demand and provide useful information to airport managers and policymakers. Therefore, using the quarterly macroeconomic indicators from 2002 to 2017, the relationship with air passenger demand was demonstrated by multiple regression analysis. In the previous studies, they used GDP, Korea Treasury Bond, KOSPI index, USD/KRW Exchange Rate, and WTI Crude Oil Price variables. In this study, we used the Coincident Composite Index, Employment Rate, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Private Consumption Rate used as additional variables. It has confirmed that if the consumption of research results expands or the economic environment is right, it will affect the increase in international passengers. In other words, it confirmed that the overall economic situation acts as the main factor determining air passenger demand. It confirmed that the economic environment at the past has a significant impact on air passenger demand.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.33-38
• /
• 2016

Purpose - This study purposes to analyze the impact of regional economic integration and macroeconomic on Indonesian FDI inflows. Research design, data, and methodology - Data were collected from bilateral relation between Indonesia and 21 home countries whose dominant share FDI to Indonesia from 2005 to 2013. Analysis method was conducted by panel gravity modeI to find the impact of regional economic integration and macroeconomic on Indonesian FDI inflows. Results - The empirical results show that GDP of the home country and Indonesia have a positive impact on Indonesia FDI. Distance and home country real interest rate have a negative impact on Indonesia FDI. Economic integration of European Union (EU) and Indonesia's cooperation with Japan in ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) have created impact of investment creation on Indonesia FDI, unfortunately, economic integration of ASEAN has created impact of investment diversion on Indonesian FDI. Conclusions - In order to increase FDI inflow to Indonesia, Indonesia government should improve the physical and social infrastructures to drive the productivity and economic efficiency. It will increase the GDP and also attract more investors. Low interest rate policy should be considered.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.10
• /
• pp.297-303
• /
• 2021

The performance of the retail industry in a country, which simultaneously reflects the demand for retail space, is significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment of said country. However, in the case of Malaysia, studies regarding this issue are limited. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the macroeconomic determinants of the demand for retail space in shopping centers in Malaysia through the study of six variables: per capita income, private expenditure, inflation rate, interest rate, total population, and the number of tourists arrival. The nexus between these variables and the demand for retail space in shopping centers were examined by cointegration and causality tests, and regression analysis using quarterly data for the period 1993Q1 to 2016Q4. The results from bivariate cointegration tests indicate that inflation rate, interest rates, population size, and the number of tourists arrival have significant long-run relationships with the demand for retail space of Malaysian shopping centers. Meanwhile, the Granger causality tests show that only population size can cause the demand for shopping centers' retail space. Finally, the results from the regression analysis revealed that income per capita, private expenditure, interest rates, and population are the variables that significantly influence the demand for the retail space of the Malaysian shopping centers.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.617-626
• /
• 2021

The study examines the existence of twin deficit in two emerging economies (Turkey and Iran) and also investigates the relation of twin deficit with specific macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP, money supply, foreign direct investment, and the interest rate both in short and long-run periods. The twin-deficit concept refers to a situation where the current account deficit and budget deficits exist in the same corresponding period of an economy. This study employs the Bound Test Autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model on time-series quarterly secondary data of Turkey and Iran from 1992 to 2019. The stationarity of variables has been ensured through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test at the level and the first difference. The results reveal the existence of a twin deficit in both the short and long-run periods only in Iran. Its existence could not be observed in the Turkish economy. The findings suggest a positive relationship between twin deficit and GDP, and a negative relationship between twin deficit and FDI and M2. At the same time, the relationship of the twin deficit with interest rate could not be found in the Iranian economy. The findings may be helpful for economic managers of both countries in executing their economic policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.151-159
• /
• 2021

This study aims to compare the level of stability of the Islamic banking system in the ASEAN region, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam in the face of macroeconomic turmoil. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the official website of the government and banks of each country, with sampling using purposive sampling technique during the period 2013 to 2019. The data analysis method used is panel data using Eviews software. The results showed that the average Z-score value of Islamic banking during the study period in each country was Indonesia (15.61), Malaysia (15.56) and Brunei Darussalam (19.10). The GDP (X1) has a positive effect on the stability of Islamic banking by 54.29%, inflation (X2) has a negative effect of -12.24% on the stability of Islamic banking, and the exchange rate (X3) has a positive effect on the stability of Islamic banking by 42.58%. The findings of this study indicate that the three countries have an average Z-score value that is higher than 2.99, so this shows that Islamic banking in several ASEAN countries is in a stable condition. In addition, a higher GDP and a stronger exchange rate can also encourage a more stable Islamic banking.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.448-459
• /
• 2021

In this paper, we propose a method of predicting the next-day stock price fluctuations of 10 KOSDAQ-listed companies in 5G, autonomous driving, and electricity sectors by training SVM, XGBoost, and LightGBM models from macroeconomic·financial market indicators, technical indicators, social interest indicators, and daily positive indices extracted from online news. In the three experiments to find out the usefulness of social interest indicators and daily positive indices, the average accuracy improved when each indicator and index was added to the models. In addition, when feature selection was performed to analyze the superiority of the extracted features, the average importance ranking of the social interest indicator and daily positive index was 5.45 and 1.08, respectively, it showed higher importance than the macroeconomic financial market indicators and technical indicators. With the results of these experiments, we confirmed the effectiveness of the social interest indicators as alternative data and the daily positive index for predicting stock price fluctuation.