• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.647-654
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• 2021

This study examines the non-performing loans of rural banks and macroeconomic factors in Indonesia, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. Theoretically, the existence of erratic macroeconomic conditions can affect the level of non-performing credit risk in rural credit banks in Indonesia. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans has a different response for each economic sector. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period from January 2015 to December 2018. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to determine the effect of independent variables consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans are credit, inflation, and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on non-performing loans, namely, credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on bad credit in the short term.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2022

The implications of bank-specific risks and macroeconomic risks on the growth, profitability, and stability of Islamic and conventional banks are examined and compared in this article. The study also investigates whether corporate governance mitigates the effects of both bank-specific and macroeconomic risks on Islamic and conventional banks' development, profitability, and stability. For the period 2007-2019, we examined a panel data set of 22 banks in Pakistan, including both Islamic and conventional banks. We discovered considerable evidence that both bank-specific risks and macroeconomic risks have negative effects on the growth, profitability, and stability of Pakistani banks using a dynamic panel data estimator, the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. Furthermore, the findings show that bank-specific and macroeconomic risks have different consequences in both types of banking. The impacts of liquidity risk, operational risk, capital risk, inflation risk, and exchange rate risk are higher for Islamic banks than for conventional banks. Conventional banks, on the other hand, are more vulnerable to credit risk and interest rate risk. Finally, the findings show that good corporate governance reduces the negative consequences of both categories of risks on bank development, profitability, and stability. This is true for Islamic and conventional banks alike.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.23-34
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• 2020

The paper revisits the author's previous paper to examine short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The data is updated to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to June 2018 (390 observations) retrieved from the Bank of Korea. The results of Johansen cointegration test indicate that at least one cointegrating equation exists, confirming there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The results of vector error correction estimates confirm that: 1) the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, which is, a long-run dynamic relationship is observed between macroeconomic variables and stock prices; 2) for short-run dynamics, the nominal exchange rate of the Korean won per the US dollar is positively related to stock prices, while interest rates are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run; 3) the coefficient of global financial crises is insignificant, that is, the changes of stock prices are determined largely by their own dynamics in the model. The results suggest only that the global financial crises neither cause instability in the cointegrating vector, nor affect significant changes in the endogenous variables in the model.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.12
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• pp.95-105
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• 2021

A prerequisite of a sound financial system is effective channeling of financial resources to efficient users; hence maximizing economic and societal welfare. To that end, the prevalence of bad loans in banks in emerging economies is a major policy concern. In an attempt to add to the growing body of literature explaining the interrelationship between macroeconomic and firm-specific factors, and non-performing loans (NPL), this paper examines data from 24 scheduled commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2019. Macroeconomic factors as well as firm-specific factors related to profitability, capital strength, and efficiency are considered. Panel data regression analysis is performed to estimate pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models. Following the necessary testing, it was found that the fixed effects model with robust standard error is appropriate. Results show that return on assets and inflation have a negative influence on NPL, but GDP growth has a favorable impact. The paper concludes by asserting that the evidence supports similar findings from studies both in Bangladesh and elsewhere and it is noted that a combination of these macroeconomic and firm-specific factors explains only a small portion of the total variation in NPL.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the determinants of macroeconomic and institutional stability on the development of the global sukuk market by controlling the effects of population. This study uses panel data namely GDP per-capita, exchange rate, and inflation as the proxies for macroeconomic stability sourced from the World Development Index, and six dimensions of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as institutional proxies sourced from WGI-World Bank. To make robust the relationship between macroeconomics and institutional on the global sukuk market, the population (POP) variable was included as a control variable. The development of sukuk uses a proxy for sukuk issuance in the International Islamic Financial Market, for the annual period from 2002-2017. The data was analyzed using the General Method of Moment, and the results show that by controlling the population effects that proved to be significant, GDP per-capita and the rule of law have a significant impact on the development of sukuk, especially when incorporating population effects as control variables, whereby further ascertaining the effect of each macroeconomic-stability variable and institutional stability on sukuk development, especially inflation, found not to affect sukuk development. These results also confirm the previous findings, whereby inflation remains controllable at a certain level for economic development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.741-750
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• 2021

The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.31-42
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• 2022

Purpose - The main research goals by macroeconomic analysis is to assess the effectiveness of state regulation, the sustainability of development, and the financial stability of the state. Research design, Data, and methodology - The research were analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. The volume of data from the 1995 to the 2021 was analyzed by Russian Federation. The scale of research on Belarus: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2015 by 2021, on Kazakhstan - from the 19941, on Kyrgyzstan - from the 2002, on Tajikistan - from the 2008, on Armenia - from the 2021, on Japan - since the 1970, on China - since the 1950, on South Korea - since the 1953. Result - The methods of multivariate statistics was demonstrated exact of result in forecasting of macroeconomic indicators. The most of tendency with the accurate results of are described using the second-degree polynomials. In the most research of country there are the macroeconomic proportion are broken. Conclusion - In the countries studied, the monetary aggregates have a significant growth rate. The shares with a substantial monetary stock and the speed of its growth are divided in the two groups: having placements in the real sectors of the economy and not having received the same result of development from the growth of the monetary stock.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.27-39
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• 2022

The exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable that influences internal and external balances. Nepal follows a dual exchange rate such that the Nepali rupee (NPR) is pegged with the Indian rupee (INR) but floats with the United States dollar (USD) and all other currencies. There have been very few studies on the exchange rate of Nepal, of which the majority focus on the bivariate relationship between exchange rate and another variable. However, this paper analyses the multivariate relationship between the USD-NPR exchange rate and major macroeconomic variables. Determinants of Nepal's exchange rate have been derived with multiple regression using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach. Since the explanatory variables could not significantly capture the movement of the dependent variable, a long-run relationship between Nepal and India's exchange rate has been analyzed using Engle-Granger cointegration to establish a relationship as suggested by a graphical representation. This explains that Nepal's exchange rate long run is determined by India's exchange rate than its own fundamentals. In addition, the macro-linkages of Nepal's macroeconomic variables have been analyzed using Standard Vector Autoregressive models followed by impulse response analysis which is useful for policy decisions. Some policy implications indicating the sustainability of Nepal's pegged regime have been drawn based on the empirical analysis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.85-93
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• 2020

This study aimed to explore the impact of macroeconomic (Real GDP growth (GDPG), Inflation rate (INF)) and bank -specific variables (profitability (ROA), capital adequacy (CADEQ), non-performing loans (NPL), deposit growth (DEPG)) on the liquidity (lIQ) of 13 listed Jordanian commercial banks for the period 2011-2018. Panel data analysis, Pooled least square, fixed effects model and random effects model, Lagrange multiplier test, and Hausman test were used. The random effects model output shows that, macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity since inflation has a positive impact while GDPG has a negative impact on banks (LIQ). On the other hand among the bank-specific variables capital adequacy and deposit growth have a positive significant impact on banks (LIQ), while (NPL) and (SIZE) have a negative significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity. But ROA has a negative insignificant impact on (LIQ). The findings of the study suggest that commercial banks departments need to pay attention to the economic and internal variables of banks in order to maintain acceptable levels of liquidity.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.128-136
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• 2012

In this study, we investigated the macroeconomic variables that affect housing prices thus creating a large impact on people's lives as well as the real estate market. For the study, the macroeconomic variables able to influence the House Rental Price (housing price by lease or deposit) were used for an analysis as follows: housing sales price index, household loans rate, total household savings, the number of employees and a multiple regression analysis was performed using a time series for each macroeconomic variable. As a result of the analysis, the House Rental Price was affected by all of four macroeconomic variables. The House Rental Price increased as each variable enlarged. In conclusion, this study may be useful for finding a solution for stabilizing the House Rental Price as well as for the establishment of efficient and sustainable policies for the housing market.