• 제목/요약/키워드: Macro Variables

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적극적 채권운용전략을 위한 수익률곡선 분석 (An Analysis on the Yield Curves for Active Bond Managements)

  • 정희준
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2008
  • 1990년대 전반 회사채 중심 채권시장의 주요 참여자들은 매입 보유전략과 같은 소극적 운용방식(passive management)을 채권운용전략의 기본구조로 가지고 있었다. 그러나 IMF 금융위기를 겪으면서 과거에 비해 낮아진 수익률수준과 금융기관들의 경쟁심화로 시장의 주 참여자들은 보다 적극적인 운용전략(active management)을 채택해야 하는 상황에 놓이게 되었다. 이 연구는 채권의 투자환경에 대한 총체적 정보의 반영이라고 할 수 있는 수익률곡선의 형성과 이에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수들과의 구조적 관계를 실증적으로 분석하여 적극적 채권운용전략을 수행하기 위해 고려해야 할 요인들과 운용방향에 대한 시사점을 얻고자 한다. 이를 위하여 1999년부터 2006년까지의 데이터를 기초로 Nelson-Siegel 모형에 의한 수익률곡선의 요인(수준, 기울기, 곡률)을 추정하였다. 추정된 결과를 수익률곡선 예측에 이용하여 그 모형의 유용성을 살펴보기 위해 표본외 예측을 실시하였다. 또한 수준과 기울기 변화의 추정값을 종속변수로 하고 주요 증권시장 변수들 및 시장외적 변수들을 독립변수로 하여 VAR 모형과 SUR 모형을 추정하였다. 추정 결과 수익률곡선의 수준과 기울기가 목표 콜금리변동, 원/달러 변동률 그리고 물가변동률의 금기나 과거의 영향을 받는다는 가설이 통계적 유의성을 보였다. 이들 결과는 국민주택채권은 물론 국고채권을 포함한 우리나라 국채시장 전반에 대한 적극적 운용전략을 세우는데 의미 있는 시사점을 제공하고 있다.

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목표달성가능성에 영향을 미치는 개인의 특성과 목표달성기제에 관한 연구 (The Relationship of Individual Trait Factors and Goal Mechanisms with Goal Attainability)

  • 박종철;최지은
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제12권11호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Goal setting is effective in any domain in which an individual or group has some control over the outcomes. It applies not only to work tasks but also to sports and health, and in various other settings. Its success depends on considering the mediators and moderators determining its efficacy and applicability. This study investigates the individual factors influencing academic goal attainability. Unlike previous studies, we focused on the effect of the relationships between individual traits (passion, tenacity, self-control) and specific motivation (vision, self-efficacy, implementation intentions) with academic goal attainability, rather than the effects of the relationship between commitment and the goal shielding mechanism with goal attainability. Research design, data, and methodology - Data collected through questionnaires were analyzed by the SPSS program. A total of 293 school students, who participated in the TOEIC program, participated in the survey. Slightly more than half were female (male: n=145 vs. female: n=148). We verified nine hypotheses through various statistical methods (reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, structural equation model for the hypothesis test, bootstrapping test for the mediation test). Results - Data was analyzed in three phases. The first phase involved measurement analysis (i.e., item purification and factor structure confirmation), involving the scales of the three variables of individual traits, three mechanism variables, and goal attainability. The second phase involved estimating the proposed structural relationships among the key constructs (see Figure 1), using the results to test H1 to H9. The final phase involved examining the mediating effects of the three variables (vision, implementation intention, and self-efficacy). The research model shows that the independent variable passion has a significant result with both the mediators-vision and self-efficacy. Further, vision and self-efficacy significantly affect goal attainability. The second variable, self-control, shows a significant effect when mediated by implementation intentions, but the direct relationship between implementation intension and goal attainability shows an insignificant result. However, when further mediated by self-efficacy, it showed a significant effect between self-efficacy and goal attainability. Similarly, the third variable, tenacity, shows an insignificant result when mediated by vision. In contrast, the mediator self-efficacy shows a positive effect between tenacity and goal attainability. Conclusions - This study shows how these individual traits, when mediated with the appropriate motivational factors, resulted significantly in the attainability of academic goals. We may identify several theoretical and practical contributions. Theoretically, we developed a step further in the research into consumer goals and related studies. Future research could examine the effects of different learning goal types and their combinations with performance goals (e.g., learning goals first, then performance goals), different types of goal framing (approach success vs. avoid failure), the relation between goals and cognition (which, by implication, entails all of cognitive psychology), goal hierarchies, and macro goal studies with organizations of different sizes. More studies on the relationship between conscious and subconscious goals would also be valuable.

시계열분석을 통한 산업재해율 예측 (The Prediction of Industrial Accident Rate in Korea: A Time Series Analysis)

  • 최은숙;전경숙;이원기;김영선
    • 한국직업건강간호학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.

Development and evaluation of a dish-based semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire for Korean adolescents

  • Yum, Jinhee;Lee, Seungmin
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.433-441
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    • 2016
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a dish-based semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) for Korean adolescents and evaluate its reproducibility and validity. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Based on 24-hour dietary recall data from the 4th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), we developed a FFQ with 71 items. From a quota sample of 160 adolescents recruited using gender and age group as stratification variables, 153 participated in the complete data collection process. The FFQ was administered to each subject twice, at an interval of 3-4 weeks, to evaluate the test-retest reliability. The validity of the FFQ was assessed relative to 8-day food record data. RESULTS: The study findings demonstrated the FFQ's satisfactory reproducibility. Spearman correlation coefficients ranged from 0.64(for ${\beta}-carotene$) to 0.81(for protein). From cross-classification analyses, the proportion of subjects in the same intake quartile was highest for protein (65.4%) and lowest for vitamin A(47.1%). With regard to validity analysis, Spearman correlation coefficients ranged from 0.27(for vitamin A and fiber) to 0.90 (for energy). The proportions of subjects in the opposite categories between the first FFQ and the 8-day food record data were generally low within the range from 0.74% (for energy and carbohydrate) to 13.2% (for ${\beta}-carotene$). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the dish-based semiquantitative FFQ developed in this study can be useful for grouping Korean adolescents according to major macro- and micronutrient intakes with reasonable reproducibility and validity.

Estimation of the Cure Rate in Iranian Breast Cancer Patients

  • Rahimzadeh, Mitra;Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Gohari, Mahmood Reza;Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권12호
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    • pp.4839-4842
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    • 2014
  • Background: Although the Cox's proportional hazard model is the popular approach for survival analysis to investigate significant risk factors of cancer patient survival, it is not appropriate in the case of log-term disease free survival. Recently, cure rate models have been introduced to distinguish between clinical determinants of cure and variables associated with the time to event of interest. The aim of this study was to use a cure rate model to determine the clinical associated factors for cure rates of patients with breast cancer (BC). Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study covered 305 patients with BC, admitted at Shahid Faiazbakhsh Hospital, Tehran, during 2006 to 2008 and followed until April 2012. Cases of patient death were confirmed by telephone contact. For data analysis, a non-mixed cure rate model with Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were employed. All analyses were carried out using a developed Macro in WinBugs. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were employed to find the best model. Results: The overall 1-year, 3-year and 5-year relative survival rates were 97%, 89% and 74%. Metastasis and stage of BC were the significant factors, but age was significant only in negative binomial model. The DIC also showed that the negative binomial model had a better fit. Conclusions: This study indicated that, metastasis and stage of BC were identified as the clinical criteria for cure rates. There are limited studies on BC survival which employed these cure rate models to identify the clinical factors associated with cure. These models are better than Cox, in the case of long-term survival.

사회부과적 완벽주의가 우울에 미치는 영향: 정서표현 양가성과 경험회피의 매개효과를 중심으로 (The Effect of Socially-Prescribed Perfectionism to Depression: Focusing on Mediating effect of Ambivalence over Emotional Expressiveness and Experiential Avoidance)

  • 오예람;송원영
    • 융합정보논문지
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    • 제10권10호
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    • pp.150-160
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 사회부과적 완벽주의가 우울에 영향을 주는 과정에서 정서표현 양가성과 경험 회피가 순차적으로 매개하는 경로를 탐색하였다. 전국의 성인 201명을 대상으로 다차원적 완벽주의 척도, 정서표현 양가성 척도, 수용-행동 질문지-II, 우울 척도로 구성된 설문을 실시하였다. 수집된 자료 분석을 위해 기술통계분석과 Pearson 상관분석, 매개효과를 검증을 실행하였고, 간접효과 유의성을 검증하였다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 사회부과적 완벽주의와 정서표현 양가성, 경험회피는 우울과 유의한 정적 상관을 보였다. 둘째, 사회부과적 완벽주의와 우울의 관계에서 정서표현 양가성과 경험 회피의 순차적 매개효과가 유의하였다. 결과를 바탕으로 우울을 높이는 변인으로써 정서표현 양가성과 경험 회피의 역할을 확인하였고, 사회부과적 완벽주의, 정서표현 양가성, 경험 회피, 우울의 통합적인 모델을 제시하였다. 나아가 경험 회피를 이용한 치료적 방안을 모색하고자 하였다.

전세가격상승이 금융산업 생산지수에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Effect of Chonsei Price Increase on the Index of Financial Industry)

  • 조이운;김보영
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제15권10호
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    • pp.457-467
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    • 2015
  • 최근 전세가격 상승과 저금리 저성장 시대에도 불구하고 금융 및 보험업의 산업 생산지수는 전 산업생산지수 대비 지속적으로 상승폭을 유지하면서 일반적인 상식에 반하는 현상이 나타나고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 금융업 산업생산지수와 전세가격 상승의 동태적 상관관계를 분석함으로써 전세가격 상승이 금융업 산업생산지수에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 이를 위해 전세가격지수와 거시경제 변수인 전 산업생산지수, 금융 및 보험업 생산지수의 변수를 정의하고, 공적분 관계가 없는 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR)을 이용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 2000년 1월부터 2015년 5월말까지 총 183개월의 시계열 데이터 분석결과 전세가격상승이 직접적으로 금융업 생산지수에 인과 관계를 나타내지는 않았으나 금융업 산업생산지수의 상승이 전세가격 상승에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 곧 전세가격의 구조적 변화와 주택금융의 관계 분석을 통해 실질적인 주택 관련 정책이 금융산업에 직접적인 영향을 줄 수 있음을 시사한다.

강섬유와 PVA 섬유로 하이브리드 보강된 콘크리트의 슬럼프 및 역학적 특성 (Slump and Mechanical Properties of Hybrid Steel-PVA Fiber Reinforced Concrete)

  • 양근혁
    • 콘크리트학회논문집
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.651-658
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    • 2010
  • 콘크리트의 슬럼프와 역학적특성에 대한 마이크로 섬유와 매크로 섬유의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 강섬유와 PVA 섬유로 하이브리드 보강된 콘크리트 16배합과 무보강 콘크리트 1배합을 실험하였다. 주요 변수는 강섬유와 PVA 섬유의 체적비 및 길이이다. 하이브리드 섬유보강 콘크리트의 역학적특성들은 섬유보강지수에 따라 분석되었으며, 강섬유 또는 PVA 섬유만으로 보강된 콘크리트와 비교하였다. 하이브리드 섬유보강 콘크리트의 슬럼프는 섬유 체적비와 형상비 증가와 함께 감소하였으며, 할렬인장강도, 파괴계수, 탄성계수 및 휨 인성지수는 섬유보강지수의 증가와 함께 증가하였다. 단일 섬유보강 콘크리트의 섬유체적비에 비해 낮은 체적비를 갖는 하이브리드 섬유보강 콘크리트의 파괴계수와 휨인성지수는 단일 섬유보강 콘크리트에 비해 높았다. 하이브리드 섬유보강 콘크리트의 휨 인성 향상을 위해서는 30 mm와 60 mm 길이의 강섬유를 함께 사용하는 것보다는 60 mm 강섬유만을 사용하는 것이 효율적이었다.

환경친화적 유통공간의 소비효용이 재방문의도에 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Consumption Utility from Green Retail Environment on Revisit Intention)

  • 백인열;강우성
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Recently the importance of green consumption and corporate social responsibility has been increasing, thereby enhancing the importance of green consumption space as well. The retail space, as a representative consumption space, is now consuming more energy by introducing bigger retail space, 24-hour operation, cutting-edge equipment, and manless checkout system. Especially for retailers, who are constantly interacting with consumers, not only the economic consideration but also the consumer experience via retail service and physical retail space is crucial for their success. Therefore, this study intends to understand the main factors of motivating consumer perception about green retail space. In addition, we further investigate the mediating and moderating variables to encourage revisit intention and green retail space image. Research design, data, and methodology - In order to test our hypotheses with two models, we conducted a survey using questionnaires. In model 1, 356 respondents were surveyed to determine whether consumers' green attitudes and behaviors enhance environmentally friendly perception on retail space properties. In model 2, a questionnaire survey was conducted on 69 consumers who have experience in green retail space. Questionnaire surveys were conducted with on-line panels in Korea and analyzed using regression model and Hayes' PROCESS macro. Results - We found that consumers with green attitude put more importance on the attributes of green retail space. Also, the utility of the green retail space was found to be significant in emotional and social benefits. And, the consumers, who perceived the importance of green retail space, show higher revisit intentions. The emotional and social utilities have significant positive effects on revisit intention through green retail space image. Conclusions - This study demonstrates that a green retail space can induce positive consumer utility, thereby increasing green retail space image and revisit intention. Thus, in order to increase the image and revisit, retailers should communicate green messages with consumers, enhance green attributes of retail space, and target green consumers. To do so, we suggest that various marketing efforts such as publicity and education are needed to appeal experiential green products and retail space to consumers.

유통 서비스에 대한 고객 평가에 있어 소비자 흥정 선호의 조절효과 (The Moderating Effect of Bargain-proneness in Customer Evaluation of Retail Service)

  • 김용철
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of basic value satisfaction on service quality evaluation and customer loyalty and the moderating effect of Bargain-proneness in this process. Specifically, I analyzed the influence of basic value satisfaction, the mediating effect of service quality evaluation, and the moderated mediation effect of Bargain-proneness. Research design, data, and methodology - Data collection for this study was conducted for adults over 18 years of age with shopping experiences in traditional market within a month around the traditional market in the metropolitan area. A total of 250 questionnaire response data was obtained. Hypotheses were tested using SPSS. The PROCESS macro method was used to verify the mediating effect of the service quality evaluation on the relationship between basic value satisfaction and customer loyalty. Hierarchical regression analysis was performed to analyze the moderated mediation effect of the bargain-proneness tendency. Results - Empirical results showed that the basic value satisfaction affected service quality evaluation and customer loyalty. Specifically, it has been found that it directly affects customer loyalty and indirectly influences through service quality evaluation. The moderated mediation effect of the bargain-proneness tendency in the process of basic value satisfaction affecting customer loyalty through service quality evaluation has been verified. In other words, the higher the bargain-proneness tendency, the more influence the basic value satisfaction has on the favorable service quality evaluation. Conclusions - This study contributed to the distribution literature in that it attempted a new empirical study considering the variable 'bargain-proneness tendency', which had not received much academic attention in the past. Furthermore, this study contributed academically in that it presented important moderating variables that should be paid attention in the field of distribution studies. In this study, bargain-proneness was used with a focus on traditional markets, but this variable could play an significant role in future offline distribution studies that should pay attention to meet hedonic needs of shopping. These results suggested that traditional market practitioners should focus on the basic value and that the bargain-prone consumer segment should be considered as a target.