• Title/Summary/Keyword: Macro Economics

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The Effects of COVID-19 Diffusion in the Korean Economy: Using SIR-based Macro-Epidemiological Model (코로나19 확산이 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석: SIR 기반의 거시역학 모형을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Bongseok;Park, Hojeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.27-48
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    • 2021
  • We extend and modify the canonical epidemiology model of Eichenbaum, Rebelo and Trabandt (2020) to investigate the general equilibrium effects of COVID-19 spread in the Korean economy when vaccine, treatment and social distancing are available. Particularly, we develop a SIR-macro model which considers possibility of moral inattention of the overconfident agents through which people is more likely to be infected. Our model implies that people's decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic and thus exacerbate the size of the economic recession caused by the epidemic. Another finding is that the average 13 weeks to develop the vaccine and treatment will lead to 2% drop of consumption.

Financial Ratio, Macro Economy, and Investment Risk on Sharia Stock Return

  • WIDAGDO, Bambang;JIHADI, M.;BACHITAR, Yanuar;SAFITRI, Oky Ervina;SINGH, Sanju Kumar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.919-926
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and test the effect of financial ratios and macroeconomics on Islamic stock returns listed in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) other than to assess whether investment risk can be an intervening variable in this study. The type of research is explanatory in nature with a quantitative descriptive approach. The data used is based on secondary sources with a sample group of 29 companies listed on JII for a 5-year period ending 31 December 2018. The data obtained were analyzed by using SEM (Structural Equation Model) with AMOS (Analysis Moment of Structural) 21 program. The results of the study show that only financial ratios affect sharia stock returns and investment risk, while the mediation test found that investment risk does not act as a mediating variable between financial ratios and macroeconomics and Islamic stock return. These findings indicate that the role of the company's financial health is very important. Besides affecting the rate of return obtained, the company's financial health can also reflect the level of risk that investors will accept in the future. By improving financial performance properly, a company will have a positive impact on various interested parties and minimize the level of investor losses.

The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Hoang Chung
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2022
  • The study estimates the Structured VAR and the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Vietnamese economy based on the new Keynesian model for small and open economies, with the output gap, inflation, policy interest rate, the Vietnamese exchange rate, and the inflation and interest rate in the United States. The paper aims to clarify the impulse response of the macro variables through their shocks. It offers to model the SVAR and DSGE processes, as well as describe why and how interest rate policy is important in the impulse response of macro variables like the output gap and inflation process. The study supports the central role of monetary policy by giving empirical evidence for the new Keynesian theory, according to which an interest rate shock causes the output gap to widen and inflation to decrease. Finally, the application of the DSGE model is becoming more and more popular in the State Bank of Viet Nam to improve its policy planning, analyzing, and forecasting policy towards sustainable and stable growth.

A Theoretical Study on Trust Building in Economic Space (경제공간에서 신뢰형성에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • Sung, Sin-Je;Lee, Hee-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.560-581
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to present a conceptual framework and a stage of development of trust building and to study the factors affecting on the trust building in economics space. Conceptual framework on trust building in economics space is combined of in the three approaches. The macro(structural and institutional) approach includes normative and regulative factors(laws, norms), and positionality in social and economic systems(beliefs, political ideologies, institutions). The meso(intersubjective) approach contains the personal fronts(expressive factors, social cues, significant symbols) and settings(physical space, intermediary such as technologies & knowledges). The micro(subjective) approach comprises the willingness(internalization of value) and calculation(risk and uncertainties analysis) of economic actors. According to sustainable cooperation among economic actors, trust building to the macro(structural and institutional) level, the meso(intersubjective) level, and the micro(subjective) level develop by stages. The factors such as long-term and repeated interaction, information sharing and reciprocity, interdependence and asset specificity, uncertainty, proximity, and culture & norm of corporate and formal institution are determinants on the trust building across economic actors in economic space.

Neural Network Analysis in Forecasting the Malaysian GDP

  • SANUSI, Nur Azura;MOOSIN, Adzie Faraha;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to develop basic artificial neural network models in forecasting the in-sample gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia. GDP is one of the main indicators in presenting the macro economic condition of a country as set by the world authority bodies such as the World Bank. Hence, this study uses an artificial neural network-based approach to make predictions concerning the economic growth of Malaysia. This method has been proposed due to its ability to overcome multicollinearity among variables, as well as the ability to cope with non-linear problems in Malaysia's growth data. The selected inputs and outputs are based on the previous literatures as well as the economic growth theory. Therefore, the selected inputs are exports, imports, private consumption, government expenditure, consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and money supply, which includes M1 and M2. Whilst, the output is real gross domestic product growth rate. The results of this study showed that the neural network method gives the smallest value of mean error which is 0.81 percent with a total difference of 0.70 percent. This implies that the neural network model is appropriate and is a relevant method in forecasting the economic growth of Malaysia.

Profitability and the Distance to Default: Evidence from Vietnam Securities Market

  • VU, Van Thuy Thi;DO, Nhung Hong;DANG, Hung Ngoc;NGUYEN, Tram Ngoc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2019
  • The paper examines the influence of profitability on distance to default (DD) in Vietnam securities market. The investigated sample consists of 211 companies listed on HOSE during 18 years from 2010 to 2017. We apply KMV model to calculate distance to default and use both macroeconomics factors and firm specific factors as independent variables. Using General Least Squared (GLS) method, we find evidence to confirm the positive relationship between profitability and distance to default. This result showed that, although profitability did not directly reflect the cash flow generated, a good profitable enterprise would be an important factor to help facilitate and generate cash flow and at the same time debt was guaranteed when it was due. Besides, the test results revealed that the financial structure and sales on assets have the inverse effect on the distance to default at the significance level of 5%. The results also revealed that a group of macro factors had an influence on the distance to default of businesses, including spread, GDP and trade balance (via exchange rates). Gross domestic income had certain impacts on the distance to default of businesses. This was also a basic indicator measuring the national economic cycle.

Apparel design evaluation process from users' perceived values

  • Kim, Jungsook
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.158-166
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    • 2014
  • Apparel design is an economic activity to create values for users over the value chain of a product. In this paper, the contribution of apparel design is defined as the enhancement of users' perceived values by improving users' experience of products. In this context, the value of a product corresponds to compensation for experience or a promise for experience of a product. Experience can be sensory or psychological benefits to users. To evaluate the value of apparel design, the researcher identified and analyzed the apparel design parameters affecting users' experience and benefits of products such as macro-, micro-environmental factors, value chain factors, apparel designer factors, and user factors. For an analytical modeling of the values of apparel design, this paper introduces the concept of a utility function from economics. In economics, utility is a measure of desirability or satisfaction that can be correlative to need or desire. The measure of value can be found in the price which a user is willing to pay for the fulfillment or satisfaction of need or desire via the experience of a product.

Conceptual perspectives on consumer satisfaction/dissatisfaction (소비자 만족$\cdot$불만족의 개념에 관한 이론적 연구)

  • 박명희
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 1985
  • Consumer satisfaction/dissatisfaction is a concept which is receiving increased attention from consumers, public policy makers, and marketers alike. The literature in this field is still meager, has been growing rapidly byt with diversity of direction. The purpose of this study is to review the conceptualization and taxonomy of CS/D in consumer research. Three types of the basic process in a general theory of CS/D are suggested; system CS/D, enterprise CS/D and product-service CS/D. It is also classified into macro marketing system CS/D, micro marketing system CS/D and consuming mix CS/D. The conceptualization of CS/D begins with a basic model of how CS/D results from the individual product purchase experience of individual consumer. Basic CS/D models are classified into process model which contains experience, information search, prepurchase evaluation and comparison process variables and psychological model which is derived from cognitive dissonance theory. Theoretical and empirical foundations about expectation model are asimilatin, contrast, generalized negativity and assimilation contrast theories.

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Changes in Rural Kitchens: Factors Affecting Variations of Kitchen Spaces (농촌주택의 부엌공간 변화에 따른 유형에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • 윤복자
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 1989
  • This study has been a study on changes seen in rural kitchens and factors affecting the modernization of agrarian kitchen space. The major findings were as follows: 1) The physical changes in kitchen design were carried out rapidly after 1977. This period coincided directly with the period in which kitchen improvement projects were fostered by the Sae Ma-Eul UNDONG 2) The study showed the macro factors contributing to changes in kitchen space to be government policy and industrialization. The study showed the micro factors influening kitchen space changes to be classified along socio-demographic lines and family lifestyle. 3) The factors affecting the degree of satisfaction with kitchens have been divided into socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics. The level of education achieved by the husband was the most significant among socio-demographic characteristics. Most important among lifestyle characteristics were the cooking fuel used during the slack farm season, eating habits, heating fuel and eating space respectively. The results of this study have some implications in terms of government housing policy. Policymakers should be aware of suitable kitchen spaces to rural households in order to meet their housing needs and expectations.

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에너지 부문을 고려한 한국경제의 일반균형모형화

  • Kim, Seung-Rae;Kim, Tae-Yu
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 1995
  • 본 연구는 에너지정책을 종합적 차원에서 일반경제정책과 병행하여 정량적으로 분석할 수 있는 수리모형 (numerical multi-sector general equilibrium model)을 개발하기 위하여 시도되었다. 모형은 크게 (i) 가격/기술변화 반응적인 투입-산출계수를 내생화한 "산업간 거래모형 (inter-industry production model)", (ii) 민간에 의한 최종부문 수요를 나다내는 "소비자 선택모형 (consumer choices model)", 그리고 (iii) 생산물시장과 본원적 투입요소시장, 수출입시장 등에서 민간기업 정부 및 해외라는 개별 경제주체간의 행태를 반영하는 "거시경제 (성장) 모형 (macro-econometric growth model)"으로 구성되어 있다. 이러한 방법은 분석경제를 충분히 세분하고 제(諸)경제변수들의 동시결정적 과정을 중시한 일반균형적 /부문적 접근방법 (general equilibrium/sectoral approaches)을 취함으로써 지금까지 단순한 거시경제모형(aggregate macroeconomic models)이나 전통적 산업연관모형 (static input-output models)에만 의존해 오던 경제예측이나 경제 및 에너지관련 정책의 효과분석이 한층 더 강화될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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