• Journal of Trauma and Injury
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.25-33
• /
• 2022

Purpose: The scoring system for traumatic liver injury (SSTLI) was developed in 2015 to predict mortality in patients with polytraumatic liver injury. This study aimed to validate the SSTLI as a prognostic factor in patients with polytrauma and liver injury through a generalized estimating equation analysis. Methods: The medical records of 521 patients with traumatic liver injury from January 2015 to December 2019 were reviewed. The primary outcome variable was in-hospital mortality. All the risk factors were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SSTLI has five clinical measures (age, Injury Severity Score, serum total bilirubin level, prothrombin time, and creatinine level) chosen based on their predictive power. Each measure is scored as 0-1 (age and Injury Severity Score) or 0-3 (serum total bilirubin level, prothrombin time, and creatinine level). The SSTLI score corresponds to the total points for each item (0-11 points). Results: The areas under the curve of the SSTLI to predict mortality on post-traumatic days 0, 1, 3, and 5 were 0.736, 0.783, 0.830, and 0.824, respectively. A very good to excellent positive correlation was observed between the probability of mortality and the SSTLI score (γ=0.997, P<0.001). A value of 5 points was used as the threshold to distinguish low-risk (<5) from high-risk (≥5) patients. Multivariate analysis using the generalized estimating equation in the logistic regression model indicated that the SSTLI score was an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio, 1.027; 95% confidence interval, 1.018-1.036; P<0.001). Conclusions: The SSTLI was verified to predict mortality in patients with polytrauma and liver injury. A score of ≥5 on the SSTLI indicated a high-risk of post-traumatic mortality.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
• /
• v.56 no.2
• /
• pp.99-107
• /
• 2023

Background: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been suggested as a novel predictive marker of cardiovascular disease. However, its prognostic role in patients under-going coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is unclear. This study aimed to determine the association between the preoperative NLR and early mortality in patients undergoing CABG. Methods: Cardiac surgery was performed in 2,504 patients at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital from January 2010 to December 2021. This study retrospectively reviewed 920 patients who underwent isolated CABG, excluding those for whom the preoperative NLR was unavailable. The primary endpoints were the 30- and 90-day mortality after isolated CABG. Risk factor analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis. Based on the optimal cut-off value of preoperative NLR on the receiver operating characteristic curve, high and low NLR groups were compared. Results: The 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 3.8% (n=35) and 7.0% (n=64), respectively. In the multivariable analysis, preoperative NLR was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-1.39; p<0.001) and 90-day mortality (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28; p<0.001). The optimal cut-off value of the preoperative NLR was 3.4. Compared to the low NLR group (<3.4), the high NLR group (≥3.4) showed higher 30- and 90-day mortality rates (1.4% vs. 12.1%, p<0.001; 2.8% vs. 21.3%, p<0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Preoperative NLR was strongly associated with early mortality after isolated CABG, especially in patients with a high preoperative NLR (≥3.4). Further studies with larger cohorts are necessary to validate these results.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.56 no.5
• /
• pp.458-466
• /
• 2023

Objectives: The association between long sleep duration and mortality is frequently attributed to the confounding influence of comorbidities. Nevertheless, past efforts to account for comorbidities have yielded inconsistent outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate this relationship using a large prospective cohort in Korea. Methods: The study included 114 205 participants from the Health Examinees Study, who were followed for a median of 9.1 years. A composite comorbidity score was developed to summarize the effects of 21 diseases. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality associated with sleep duration were estimated. These estimates were adjusted for socio-demographic factors, lifestyle factors, body mass index, and comorbidity score. Additionally, a stratified analysis by subgroups with and without comorbidities was conducted. Results: Throughout the follow-up period, 2675 deaths were recorded. After all adjustments, an association was observed between a sleep duration of 8 hours or more and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20). However, no such association was detected in the stratified analysis for the subgroups based on comorbidity status. Conclusions: Long sleep duration was found to be associated with all-cause mortality among Koreans, even after adjusting for comorbidities. Additional studies are required to explore the mechanism underlying the association between sleep duration and major causes of mortality.

• Korean Circulation Journal
• /
• v.53 no.10
• /
• pp.710-719
• /
• 2023

Background and Objectives: In previous studies, high homocysteine levels were associated with high cardiovascular mortality. However, these results were inconsistent with those of randomized controlled trials. We aimed to evaluate the causal role of homocysteine on allcause and cardiovascular mortality using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Methods: This study included the 10,005 participants in the Namwon Study. In conventional observational analysis, age, sex, survey years, lifestyles, body mass index, comorbidities, and serum folate level were adjusted using multivariate Cox proportional regression. MR using 2-stage least squares regression was used to evaluate the association between genetically predicted plasma homocysteine levels and mortality. Age, sex, and survey years were adjusted for each stage. The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphism was used as an instrumental variable for predicting plasma homocysteine levels. Results: Observed homocysteine levels were positively associated with all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.54) and cardiovascular (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.28-2.06) mortality when plasma homocysteine levels doubled. However, these associations were not significant in MR analysis. The HRs of doubling genetically predicted plasma homocysteine levels for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 0.99 (95% CI, 0.62-1.57) and 1.76 (95% CI, 0.54-5.77), respectively. Conclusions: This MR analysis did not support a causal role for elevated plasma homocysteine concentrations in premature deaths.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
• /
• v.27 no.6
• /
• pp.392-409
• /
• 2024

The present study aims to analyze the biological aspects and population dynamics of Indian mackerel in Barru waters. Data was collected in Barru for 11 months, from June 2022 to April 2023. The observed parameters of biological aspects included gonadal maturation stages (GMSs), size at first gonadal maturation, and length-weight relationship. Meanwhile, the aspects of population dynamics encompass age group, growth, mortality rate, and exploitation rate. Data analysis consisted of morphological selection of general maturation stages, Spearman-Kärber method in estimating gonadal first maturation size, Bhattacharya method in identifying age group, von Bertalanffy function through FISAT II to measure growth (L_∞ and K), Pauly Model to estimate mortality rate, Beverton & Holt Model to estimate Y/R, and virtual population analysis (VPA) analysis to estimate stock and fish yield. The results demonstrated that GMS I was observed to be dominant, followed by stages II and III. The initial gonadal maturation was estimated to be 17.98-19.28 cm (FL) for females and 17.98-19.27 cm (FL) for males. The length-weight relationship in male and female Indian mackerels indicated a positive allometric growth. The mode grouping analysis results from the fork length measurement revealed three age groups. It was also identified that the asymptotic length (L_∞) = 29.5 cm (fork length), growth rate coefficient (K) = 0.46 per year, and theoretical age at zero length (t₀) = -0.3576 per year. Total mortality (Z) = 2.67 per year, natural mortality (M) = 1.10 per year, fishing mortality (F) = 1.57 per year, and exploitation rate (E) = 0.59, the actual Y/R = 0.083 gram/recruitment, and optimal Y/R 0.03 gram/recruitment. Fishing mortality is higher than the natural mortality rate, and a high exploitation value (E > 0.5) also reflects over-exploitation. VPA analysis on fish yields and stock estimation reported a highly exploited rate between the 11.5 cm and 14.5 cm length classes and an exceeding current yield of 467.07 tons/year with a recommended yield of 233.53 tons/year to ensure population sustainability.

• The Korean journal of internal medicine
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.160-171
• /
• 2024

Background/Aims: The effectiveness of remdesivir treatment in reducing mortality and the requirement for mechanical ventilation (MV) remains uncertain, as randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have produced conflicting results. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and other data resources to find RCTs published prior to April 10, 2023. The selection of studies, assessment of risk of bias, and meta-analysis were conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and the need to initiate MV. Results: A total of 5,068 articles were screened, from eight RCTs comprising 11,945 patients. The meta-analysis found that, compared to standard care or placebo, remdesivir treatment provided no significant all-cause mortality benefit (pooled risk ratio [RR], 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.02; 8 studies; high certainty evidence), while subgroup analyses revealed a trend towards reduced mortality among patients requiring oxygen but not MV (pooled RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.77-1.00; 6 studies; I² = 4%). The need to initiate MV (pooled RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59-0.94; 7 studies; moderate certainty evidence) in remdesivir-treated patients was also reduced compared to controls. Remdesivir significantly increased clinical improvement and discharge and significantly reduced serious adverse events. Conclusions: In this systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs, it was found that remdesivir treatment did not show a substantial decrease in the risk of mortality. However, it was linked to a reduction in the necessity for additional ventilator support, suggesting remdesivir could be beneficial for COVID-19 patients, particularly those who are not on MV.

• The Korean journal of internal medicine
• /
• v.39 no.4
• /
• pp.625-639
• /
• 2024

Background/Aims: Intensive care unit (ICU) quality is largely determined by the mortality rate. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for predicting mortality in Korean ICUs, using national insurance claims data. Methods: Data were obtained from the health insurance claims database maintained by the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of South Korea. From patients who underwent the third ICU adequacy evaluation, 42,489 cases were enrolled and randomly divided into the derivation and validation cohorts. Using the models derived from the derivation cohort, we analyzed whether they accurately predicted death in the validation cohort. The models were verified using data from one general and two tertiary hospitals. Results: Two severity correction models were created from the derivation cohort data, by applying variables selected through statistical analysis, through clinical consensus, and from performing multiple logistic regression analysis. Model 1 included six categorical variables (age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, ventilator use, hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy, and vasopressor use). Model 2 additionally included presence/absence of ICU specialists and nursing grades. In external validation, the performance of models 1 and 2 for predicting in-hospital and ICU mortality was not inferior to that of pre-existing scoring systems. Conclusions: The novel and simple models could predict in-hospital and ICU mortality and were not inferior compared to the pre-existing scoring systems.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.45 no.5
• /
• pp.301-308
• /
• 2012

Objectives: To examine the association between alcohol consumption habit, types of beverages, alcohol consumption quantity, and overall and cancer-specific mortality among Korean adults. Methods: The alcohol consumption information of a total of 16 320 participants who were 20 years or older from the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort were analyzed to examine the association between alcohol consumption habit and mortality (median follow-up of 9.3 years). The Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of alcohol consumption to mortality adjusting for age, sex, geographic areas, education, smoking status, and body mass index. Results: Alcohol drinkers showed an increased risk for total mortality compared with never drinkers (HR, 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 2.14 for past drinkers; HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.39 for current drinkers), while past drinkers only were associated with higher risk for cancer deaths (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.53). The quantity of alcohol consumed per week showed a J-shaped association with risk of mortality. Relative to light drinkers (0.01 to 90 g/wk), never drinkers and heavy drinkers (>504 g/wk) had an increased risk for all-cause and cancer deaths: (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.45) and (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.83) for all-cause mortality; and (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.11) and (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.39 to 3.09) for all cancer mortality, respectively. Heavy drinkers (>504 g/wk) showed an elevated risk for death from stomach and liver cancers. Conclusions: The present study supports the existence of a J-shaped association between alcohol consumption quantity and the risk of all-cause and cancer deaths. Heavy drinkers had an increased risk of death from cancer overall and liver and stomach cancer.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.46 no.6
• /
• pp.319-328
• /
• 2013

Objectives: This study estimated the association of cardiovascular health behaviors with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in middle-aged men in Korea. Methods: In total, 12 538 men aged 40 to 59 years were enrolled in 1993 and followed up through 2011. Cardiovascular health metrics defined the following lifestyle behaviors proposed by the American Heart Association: smoking, physical activity, body mass index, diet habit score, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose. The cardiovascular health metrics score was calculated as a single categorical variable, by assigning 1 point to each ideal healthy behavior. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio of cardiovascular health behavior. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated from the significant cardiovascular health metrics. Results: There were 1054 total and 171 CVD deaths over 230 690 person-years of follow-up. The prevalence of meeting all 7 cardiovascular health metrics was 0.67%. Current smoking, elevated blood pressure, and high fasting blood glucose were significantly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. The adjusted PARs for the 3 significant metrics combined were 35.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.7 to 47.4) and 52.8% (95% CI, 22.0 to 74.0) for all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios of the groups with a 6-7 vs. 0-2 cardiovascular health metrics score were 0.42 (95% CI, 0.31 to 0.59) for all-cause mortality and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.03 to 0.29) for CVD mortality. Conclusions: Among cardiovascular health behaviors, not smoking, normal blood pressure, and recommended fasting blood glucose levels were associated with reduced risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Meeting a greater number of cardiovascular health metrics was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.115-125
• /
• 2011

By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.