• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.88-94
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• 2014

The seasonal predictability of the intensity of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon is low while that of the western North subtropical high variability is, when state-of-the-art general circulation models are used, relatively high. The western North Pacific subtropical high dominates the climate anomalies in the western North Pacific-East Asian region. This study discusses the predictability of the western North Pacific subtropical High variability in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP CFS). The interannual variability of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon is highly correlated with one of the western North Pacific subtropical Highs. Based on this relationship, we suggest a seasonal prediction model using NCEP CFS and canonical correlation analysis for Northeast Asian summer precipitation anomalies and assess the predictability of the prediction model. This methodology provides significant skill in the seasonal prediction of the Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomalies.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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• v.20 no.1 s.26
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• pp.9-27
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• 2006

The East Asian (China, Korea and Japan) summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the 22 coupled climate models performing coordinated experiments leading to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) following the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique. Results are based on averages of all the available models. The shape of the annual cycle with maximum during the summer monsoon period is simulated by the coupled climate models. However, models fail to simulate the minimum peak in July which is associated with northward shifts of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu precipitation band. The MME precipitation pattern is able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall associated with the location of the north Pacific subtropical high and the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu frontal zone. However precipitation over the east coast of China, Korea-Japan peninsular and the adjoining oceanic regions is underestimated. Future projections to the radiative forcing of doubled $CO_2$ scenario are examined. The MME reveals an increase in precipitation varying from 5 to 10 %, with an average of 7.8 % over the East Asian region at the time of $CO_2$ doubling. However the increases are statistically significant only over the Korea-Japan peninsula and the adjoining north China region. The increase in precipitation may be attributed to the projected intensification of the subtropical high, and thus the associated influx of moist air from the Pacific to inland. The projected changes in the amount of precipitation are directly proportional to the changes in the strength of the subtropical high. Further a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon precipitation period from late spring through early autumn is suggested.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.35-45
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• 1984

Generally speaking, agriculture exist in a climatic environment of uncertainty. Namely, normal rainfall value, as given by the mean values, does not exist. Thought on exists, itl does not affect like extreme Precipitation value on the part of agriculture and of others. Therefore, it is important that we measure the duration and severity index of drought caused by extreme precipitation deficit. In this purpose, this study was dealt with the calculation of drought duration and severity indexs by the method of monthly weighting coefficient. There is no quantitive definition of drought that is universally acceptable. Most of the criteria was used to identify drought have been arbitrary because a drought is a 'non-event' as opposed to a distinct event such as a flood. Therefore, confusion arises when an attempt is made to define the drought phenomenon, the calculation of duration, drought index is based on the following four fundamental question, and this study was dealt with the answers of these four questions as they related to this analytical method, as follows. First, the primary interest in this study is to be the lack of precipitation as it relates to agricultural effective rainfall. Second, the time interval was used to be month in this analysis. Third, Drought event, distinguished analytically from other event, is noted by monthly weighting coefficient method based on monthly rainfall data. Fin-ally, the seven regions used in this study have continually affected by drought on account of their rainfall deficit. The result from this method was very similar to the previous papers studied by many workers. Therefore, I think that this method is very available in Korea to identify the duration of drought, the deficit of precipitation and severity index of drought, But according to the climate of Korea exist the Asia Monsoon zone. The monthly weighting coefficient is modify a little, Because get out of 0.1-0.4 occasionally.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.20-25
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• 2012

New Zealand suffers from regular floods, these being the most common source of insurance claims for damage from natural hazard events in the country. This paper describes the origin and distribution of the largest floods in New Zealand, and describes the systems used to monitor and predict floods. In New Zealand, broad-scale heavy rainfall (and flooding), is the result of warm moist air flowing out from the tropics into the mid-latitudes. There is no monsoon in New Zealand. The terrain has a substantial influence on the distribution of rainfall, with the largest annual totals occurring near the South Island's Southern Alps, the highest mountains in the country. The orographic effect here is extreme, with 3km of elevation gained over a 20km distance from the coast. Across New Zealand, short duration high intensity rainfall from thunderstorms also causes flooding in urban areas and small catchments. Forecasts of severe weather are provided by the New Zealand MetService, a Government owned company. MetService uses global weather models and a number of limited-area weather models to provide warnings and data streams of predicted rainfall to local Councils. Flood monitoring, prediction and warning are carried out by 16 local Councils. All Councils collect their own rainfall and river flow data, and a variety of prediction methods are utilized. These range from experienced staff making intuitive decisions based on previous effects of heavy rain, to hydrological models linked to outputs from MetService weather prediction models. No operational hydrological models are linked to weather radar in New Zealand. Councils provide warnings to Civil Defence Emergency Management, and also directly to farmers and other occupiers of flood prone areas. Warnings are distributed by email, text message and automated voice systems. A nation-wide hydrological model is also operated by NIWA, a Government-owned research institute. It is linked to a single high resolution weather model which runs on a super computer. The NIWA model does not provide public forecasts. The rivers with the greatest flood flows are shown, and these are ranked in terms of peak specific discharge. It can be seen that of the largest floods occur on the West Coast of the South Island, and the greatest flows per unit area are also found in this location.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.1151-1159
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• 2014

In this study, two global simple indices are used to investigate climate variability and change in observations. Land-Ocean Contrast (LOC) is an index of area-averaged surface temperature contrast between land and ocean. Meridional Temperature Gradient (MTG) is defined as the mean meridional temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere from mid to high latitude and sub-tropical zonal bands. These indices have direct or indirect effects on changing in atmospheric circulations and atmospheric moisture transport from north-south or east-west into East Asia (EA). In addition, warm season hydrometeorology in EA is highly associated with water supplies for coupled human and natural systems including drinking water, irrigation, hydropower generation as well as fisheries. Therefore, in this study, we developed an empirical separation approach for summer rainfall from typhoon and monsoon. An exploratory analysis was also conducted to identify the regional patterns of summer monsoon precipitation over the Korean peninsula within the context of changes in different types of temperature gradients. The results show significant and consistent changes in summer monsoon rainfall during the summer season (June-September) in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.153-175
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• 2016

Daecheong Reservoir has suffered eutrophication and water-blooms by blue-green algae from initial impoundment, and algae alert system (AAS) was introduced in 1997. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of rainfall and hydrological factors in increase or decrease variability of green-tide and prolonged AAS, studied and analyzed the current situation of AAS has been operating for 19 years (1997~2015) in Daecheong Reservoir. The total issued number of AAS was 46 times, the most frequent period in August and September were 22 times (752 days) and 16 times (431 days), respectively, it accounted for 82.6%. Many number and frequency during this period were significantly associated with rainfall, various discharge and water level. Rainfall and hydrological events are associated with the rainy season of monsoon-Changma and the typhoon, it was concentrated in June~September, total rainfall in this period accounted for 69.9% of the annual rainfall. An increase in inflows was dependent on the intensity, frequency and the amount of rainfall. Accounted for 68.4% of the total annual inflow, it was a time when the most rapidly changing hydrological variability in the reservoir. The total outflow was closely related to rainfall, and compared the distinctive characteristics of hydropower generation and watergate-spillway discharge. In addition, the upreservoir zone of Daecheong Reservoir could be vulnerable to green-tide by regulating discharge of the upstream dam. The issue of AAS was strongly related to the with and without of watergate-spillway discharge. The watergate-spillway discharge had a total of 25 times, it was maximum 17 days from July to September in the year. And the opening times and each duration of the watergate were 1~4 times and the range of 3~37 days, respectively. When the watergate opened, the issue of AAS was maintained to 13 years and the movement of water bodies and green-tide was great about five times than that of non-open, had a profound effect on prolonged AAS within reservoir. In Daecheong Reservoir, Chusori (CHU) area of the So-ok Stream was still showing serious symptoms green-tide levels in the summer, but Janggye (JAN) waters of the main reservoir was pointed out that more important. AAS will be operated by an absolutely consider the rainfall and hydrological effects around the watergate-spillway discharge. The measures of green-tide will be included in the limnological studies more suited to the characteristics of the watershed and reservoir of the our country. Finally, from now on, we will prepare the systematic management and guidelines for vulnerable zone water-blooms that are the source within the reservoir before the monsoon rather than waiting for the arrival of green-tide on the operating stations of AAS.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.233-233
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• 2015

Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin is located in central Vietnam between Truong Son mountain range on the border with Lao in the west and the East Sea in the east. The basin occupies about 10,350 km2 or roughly 90% of the Quang Nam Province and includes Da Nang, a very large city with about 876,000 inhabitants. Total annual rainfall ranges from about 2,000 mm in central and downstream areas to more than 4,000 mm in southern mountainous areas. Rainfall during the monsoon season accounts for 65 to 80% of total annual rainfall. The highest amount of rainfall occurs in October and November which accounts for 40 to 50% of the annual rainfall. Rainfall in the dry season represents about 20 to 35% of the total annual rainfall. The low rainfall season usually occurs from February to April, accounting for only 3 to 5% of the total annual rainfall. The mean annual flow volume in the basin is $19.1{\times}109m 3$. Similar to the distribution of rainfall, annual flows are distinguished by two distinct seasons (the flood season and the low-flow season). The flood season commonly starts in the mid-September and ends in early January. Flows during the flood season account for 62 to 69% of the total annual water volume, while flows in the dry season comprise 22 to 38% of total annual run-off. The water volume gauged in November, the highest flow month, accounts for 26 to 31% of the total annual run-off while the driest period is April with flows of 2 to 3% of the total annual run-off. There are some hydropower projects in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin as the cascade of Song Bung 2, Song Bung 4, and Song Bung 5, the A Vuong project currently under construction, the Dak Mi 1 and Dak Mi 4 projects on the Khai tributary, and the Song Con project on the Con River. Both the Khai tributary and the Song Con join the Bung River downstream of SB5, although the Dak Mi 4 project involves an inter-basin diversion to Thu Bon. Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin in the central of Viet Nam were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1977-2010. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. The hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.36 no.4 s.105
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• pp.413-419
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• 2003

The water quality and algal communities in the Daechung Reservoir, Korea, were monitored from summer to autumn in 1999 and 2001. Although the average weekly precipitations during June and July were very similar in 1999 and 2001, they were much different during August and September, the so-called blooming season. The rainfall in 1999 increased about 70% after late August, whereas it decreased to the one-fifth level in 2001. The higher concentrations of chlorophyll- a, phycocyanin, and cyanobacteria were observed in 2001, which resulted in the dense algal bloom. In addition, in 2001, the cyanobacterial percentage remained above 80% during the investigation period, and the cyanobacteria were exclusively composed of Microcystis spp. Conversely, there was no report on the algal bloom in 1999. However, the peak bloom seasons were the same for both years, from late August to early September, irrespective of the amount of precipitation. These results suggest that the magnitude and duration of rainfall before bloom season are important factors determining the extent of cyanobacterial bloom in this system.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.177-184
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• 1998

The spatial rainfall distributions accompanied by the heavy rainfalls in the Korean peninsula were class-sified to 6 typical patterns and synoptic characteristics of each pattern were muined. 274 cases of heavy rainfall events occurred for 10 years from 1981 through 1990 were used for thls study In the 4 types of them, heavy rainfalls are not by the strongly developed but by the rapidly deepening low pressure systems. which have a wall defiried low and high level jets before arrival to the Korean peninsula. In another 2 types, heavy rainfall are due to speciauy developed surface low pressure system. Most of the heavy rain areas are associated with the location of the low level Jets and their direction and with the position of surface warm front. In the 4 types, the heavy rain areas extend In zonal direction. And the latitudinal locations of these areas are associated with the polar low center or strong main trough over 500 hPa level. The more northwestern part of the Asla the low locates the higher latitude in the Korean Peninsula the rainfall concentration occurs at. It is also known that the seasonal drifting of the lows have some relations to the procession of summer monsoon but its characteristics change year by year.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.116-126
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• 2014

To evaluate the relationship between dynamics of Cyanobacterial bloom and rainfalls, a monthly monitoring of water quality and phytoplankton from the three serial lakes (Lake Ui-am, Lake Chung-pyeong and Lake Pal-dang) in the North Han River System were examined 12 times from May 2012 to March 2013. A dense bloom of cyanobacterium Anabaena spp., was occurred over three lakes in the summer season of 2012. In Lake Ui-am, the Anabaena population appeared in June, showed a peak in July (43,850 cells $mL^{-1}$) and disappeared in November 2012. In Lake Chung-pyeong and Lake Pal-dang, Anabaena population commonly appeared in July, showed the peaks (31,648 cells $mL^{-1}$ and 7,136 cells $mL^{-1}$, respectively) in August, and entirely disappeared in September 2012. Over the three lakes, the phytoplankton community was commonly dominated by diatoms before Monsoon, cyanobacteria during Monsoon, and diatoms after Monsoon, respectively, indicating a Monsoon-dependent succession. A correlation analysis revealed that dynamics of Anabaena population was strongly related with rainfall (r=0.72, r=0.83, r=0.88, P<0.01 for three lakes), and partly with nutrients, inflow and outflow of lakes. Therefore, this study indicates that the outbreak and destruction of Anabaena bloom in North Han River System between 2012 and 2013 was impacted by rainfalls. However, a high density of cyanobacteria in Lake Ui-am remained after Monsoon, and thus, may paroduce bad-order and toxins from phytoplankton.