• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.903-911
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• 2022

물을 공급하기 위한 자원 중 하나인 지하수는 다양한 자연적 요인에 의해 수위의 변동이 발생한다. 최근, 인공신경망을 이용하여 지하수위의 변동을 예측하는 연구가 진행되었다. 기존에는 인공신경망 연산자 중 학습에 영향을 미치는 Optimizer로 경사하강법(Gradient Descent, GD) 기반 Optimizer를 사용하였다. GD 기반 Optimizer는 초기 상관관계 의존성과 해의 비교 및 저장 구조 부재의 단점이 존재한다. 본 연구는 GD 기반 Optimizer의 단점을 개선하기 위해 GD와 화음탐색법(Harmony Search, HS)를 결합한 새로운 Optimizer인 Gradient Descent combined with Harmony Search(GDHS)를 개발하였다. GDHS의 성능을 평가하기 위해 다층퍼셉트론(Multi Layer Perceptron, MLP)을 이용하여 이천율현 관측소의 지하수위를 학습 및 예측하였다. GD 및 GDHS를 사용한 MLP의 성능을 비교하기 위해 Mean Squared Error(MSE) 및 Mean Absolute Error(MAE)를 사용하였다. 학습결과를 비교하면, GDHS는 GD보다 MSE의 최대값, 최소값, 평균값 및 표준편차가 작았다. 예측결과를 비교하면, GDHS는 GD보다 모든 평가지표에서 오차가 작은 것으로 평가되었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.1154-1159
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• 2018

Precise prediction of the radiation interaction position in scintillators plays an important role in medical and industrial imaging systems. In this research, the incident position of the gamma rays was predicted precisely in a plastic rod scintillator by using attenuation technique and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, for the first time. Also, this procedure was performed using nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The experimental setup is comprised of a plastic rod scintillator (BC400) coupled with two PMTs at two sides, a $^{60}Co$ gamma source and two counters that record count rates. Using two proposed techniques (ANN and NLR), the radiation interaction position was predicted in a plastic rod scintillator with a mean relative error percentage less than 4.6% and 14.6%, respectively. The mean absolute error was measured less than 2.5 and 5.5. The correlation coefficient was calculated 0.998 and 0.984, respectively. Also, the ANN technique was confirmed by leave-one-out (LOO) method with 1% error. These results presented the superiority of the ANN method in comparison with NLR and the other methods. The technique and set up used are simpler and faster than other the previous position sensitive detectors. Thus, the time, cost and shielding and electronics requirements are minimized and optimized.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권5B호
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• pp.485-493
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• 2008

한반도 영역을 대상으로 RDAPS모형의 수치예보자료, AWS의 관측강수, 상층기상관측(upper-air sounding)의 관측자료를 이용하여 권역별 강수발생확률을 예측할 수 있는 인공신경망 모형을 제시하였다. 사용된 자료의 기간은 2001년 7, 8월과 2002년 6월로 홍수기를 대상으로 하였다. 500/750/1000 hPa에서의 지위고도, 500-1000 hPa에서의 층후(thickness), 500 hPa에서의 X와 Y방향 바람성분, 750 hPa에서의 X와 Y방향 바람성분, 표면풍속, 500/750 hPa/표면에서의 온도, 평균해면기압, 3시간 누적 강수, AWS관측소에서 관측된 RDAPS모형 실행전의 6시간과 12시간동안의 누적강수, 가강수량, 상대습도등을 신경망의 예측인자로 사용하였다. 신경망의 구조는 3층 MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron)로 구성하여 역전파알고리즘(Back-propagation)을 학습방법으로 사용하였다. 신경망예측결과 한반도전체에 대한 예측성과의 개선은 H가 6.8%상승하였고, 특히 TS와 POD는 각각 99.2%와 148.1% 상승함으로서 강수예측에 대한 신경망모형이 효과적인 도구가 될 수 있음을 확인하였다. KSS 역시 92.8% 개선됨으로서 RDAPS 예측에 비하여 뚜렷이 개선된 결과를 보여주고 있다.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2017년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.50-53
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• 2017

장기 해운불황에 따라 불확실성이 증폭되고 있는 상황에서 경기추세의 이해뿐만 아니라 예측 또한 중요해지고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 최근 특정 복잡한 문제에 대해서 각광받고 있는 인공신경망을 적용하여 BDI 예측을 연구하였다. 사용된 인공신경망은 순환신경망으로 RNN과 LSTM 그리고 비교의 목적으로 MLP를 통해 2009.04.01.부터 2017.07.31.의 기간을 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 또한 전통적 시계열 예측방법론인 ARIMA 분석을 실시해 인공신경망들의 예측성능과 비교하였다. 결과로 순환신경망인 RNN의 성능이 가장 뛰어났으며 LSTM의 특정 시계열(BDI)에의 적용가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.179-186
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 FRP Rebar로 보강된 철근콘크리트 보의 휨성능을 평가할 수 있는 모형을 개발하기 위하여 인공신경망 중 다층인식자 모형을 사용하였다. 인공신경망 모형에 사용될 학습자료들은 기존 연구자료들의 데이터를 이용하였다. 입력층의 독립변수는 휨성능에 주요 요소인 폭, 유효깊이, 압축강도, FRP 보강비, FRP 균형철근비을 사용하였다. 출력층 종속변수는 실험에서 측정된 모멘트 성능을 사용하였다. 개발된 인공신경망 모형은 GFRP, CFRP, AFRP Rebar 적용이 모두 가능하며, 모형의 검증은 다른 선행 연구자들이 수행한 자료를 이용하였다. 인공신경망 모형 추정결과 ANN(0.05) 모형의 경우에 비교적 정확한 휨성능 추정값을 나타낸 반면, ANN(0.1) 모형에서는 다소 오차가 발생하였다. 인공신경망 모형의 검증결과 주어진 실험 데이터 값과 비교적 일치하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 휨성능 평가 변수에 대한 민감도 분석결과 유효깊이의 영향이 가장 크고 FRP 철근비, FRP 균형철근비, 압축강도, 폭으로 분석되었다.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.285-301
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• 2013

This paper concentrates on the results of experimental work on tensile strength of self-compacting concrete (SCC) caused by flexure, which is called rupture modulus. The work focused on concrete mixes having water/binder ratios of 0.35 and 0.45, which contained constant total binder contents of 500 $kg/m^3$ and 400 $kg/m^3$, respectively. The concrete mixes had four different dosages of a superplasticizer based on polycarboxylic with and without silica fume. The percentage of silica fume that replaced cement in this research was 10%. Based upon the experimental results, the existing equations for anticipating the rupture modulus of SCC according to its compressive strength were not exact enough. Therefore, it is decided to use artificial neural networks (ANN) for anticipating the rupture modulus of SCC from its compressive strength and workability. The conclusion was that the multi layer perceptron (MLP) networks could predict the tensile strength in all conditions, but radial basis (RB) networks were not exact enough in some circumstances. On the other hand, RB networks were more users friendly and they converged to the final networks quicker.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2022

Conventional concrete needs some improvement in the mechanical properties, which can be obtained by different admixtures. However, making concrete samples costume always time and money. In this paper, different types of hybrid algorithms are applied to develop predictive models for forecasting compressive strength (CS) of concretes containing metakaolin (MK) and fly ash (FA). In this regard, three different algorithms have been used, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), and support vector machine (SVR), to predict CS of concretes by considering most influencers input variables. These algorithms integrated with the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm to increase the model's accuracy in predicting (GWMLP, GWRBF, and GWSVR). The proposed MLP models were implemented and evaluated in three different layers, wherein each layer, GWO, fitted the best neuron number of the hidden layer. Correspondingly, the key parameters of the SVR model are identified using the GWO method. Also, the optimization algorithm determines the hidden neurons' number and the spread value to set the RBF structure. The results show that the developed models all provide accurate predictions of the CS of concrete incorporating MK and FA with R² larger than 0.9972 and 0.9976 in the learning and testing stage, respectively. Regarding GWMLP models, the GWMLP1 model outperforms other GWMLP networks. All in all, GWSVR has the worst performance with the lowest indices, while the highest score belongs to GWRBF.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.497-508
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to overcome limitations of conventional studies that to predict Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The study proposed applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict BDI. Methods: The BDI time-series prediction was carried out through eight variables related to the dry bulk market. The prediction was conducted in two steps. First, identifying the goodness of fitness for the BDI time-series of specific ANN models and determining the network structures to be used in the next step. While using ANN's generalization capability, the structures determined in the previous steps were used in the empirical prediction step, and the sliding-window method was applied to make a daily (one-day ahead) prediction. Results: At the empirical prediction step, it was possible to predict variable y(BDI time series) at point of time t by 8 variables (related to the dry bulk market) of x at point of time (t-1). LSTM, known to be good at learning over a long period of time, showed the best performance with higher predictive accuracy compared to Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Conclusion: Applying this study to real business would require long-term predictions by applying more detailed forecasting techniques. I hope that the research can provide a point of reference in the dry bulk market, and furthermore in the decision-making and investment in the future of the shipping business as a whole.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.249-271
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• 2014

This paper presents a unique study of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) for the maintenance decision making about a real life movable bridge. The mechanical components of movable bridges are maintained on a scheduled basis. However, it is desired to have a condition-based maintenance by taking advantage of SHM. The main objective is to track the operation of a gearbox and a rack-pinion/open gear assembly, which are critical parts of bascule type movable bridges. Maintenance needs that may lead to major damage to these components needs to be identified and diagnosed timely since an early detection of faults may help avoid unexpected bridge closures or costly repairs. The fault prediction of the gearbox and rack-pinion/open gear is carried out using two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs): 1) Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP-NNs) and 2) Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNNs). Monitoring data is collected during regular opening and closing of the bridge as well as during artificially induced reversible damage conditions. Several statistical parameters are extracted from the time-domain vibration signals as characteristic features to be fed to the ANNs for constructing the MLP-NNs and FNNs independently. The required training and testing sets are obtained by processing the acceleration data for both damaged and undamaged condition of the aforementioned mechanical components. The performances of the developed ANNs are first evaluated using unseen test sets. Second, the selected networks are used for long-term condition evaluation of the rack-pinion/open gear of the movable bridge. It is shown that the vibration monitoring data with selected statistical parameters and particular network architectures give successful results to predict the undamaged and damaged condition of the bridge. It is also observed that the MLP-NNs performed better than the FNNs in the presented case. The successful results indicate that ANNs are promising tools for maintenance monitoring of movable bridge components and it is also shown that the ANN results can be employed in simple approach for day-to-day operation and maintenance of movable bridges.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제4권6호
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• pp.477-497
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• 2007

The ultrasonic pulse velocity method has been widely used to evaluate the quality of concrete and assess the structural integrity of concrete structures. But its use for predicting strength is still limited since there are many variables affecting the relationship between strength and pulse velocity of concrete. This study is focused on establishing a complicated correlation between known input data, such as pulse velocity and mixture proportions of concrete, and a certain output (compressive strength of concrete) using artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the results predicted by the developed multilayer perceptrons (MLP) networks are compared with those by conventional regression analysis. The result shows that the correlation between pulse velocity and compressive strength of concrete at various ages can be well established by using ANN and the accuracy of the estimates depends on the quality of the information used to train the network. Moreover, compared with the conventional approach, the proposed method gives a better prediction, both in terms of coefficients of determination and root-mean-square error.