• Title/Summary/Keyword: MC method

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Uncertainty Analysis for the Probabilistic Flood Forecasting (확률론적 홍수예측을 위한 불확실성 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Tae;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Tae-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.71-71
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    • 2012
  • 현재 전 세계적으로 극한강우의 발생빈도가 점차 높아지고 있으며 홍수량 또한 강도가 커지고 있는 것이 현실이다. 하지만 과거의 홍수발생 빈도에 따라 설계된 홍수방어시설들이 점차 한계를 보이고 있으므로 이를 대비하기위한 구조적 대책뿐만 아니라 홍수피해 발생 가능지역에 사전 예경보를 시행하는 비구조적 대책마련 또한 필요하다. 기존의 홍수예측은 확정적인 하나의 유량예측값만을 제공함으로써 신속하고 편리하였지만 이에 대한 불확실성이 큰 경우 예상치 못한 큰 인적 물적 피해를 가져올 수 있다. 이처럼 확률론적 홍수예측의 필요성이 대두되어 지면서 유럽이나 미국등 선진국에서는 EFFS(European Flood Forecasting System)과 NWSRFS(National Water Service River Forecast System)같이 이미 확률론적 홍수예측에 대한 연구 및 기술개발이 활발하게 진행되어지고 있다. 하지만 홍수예측의 확률론적 접근에 있어서는 많은 불확실성들이 내포되어 있으므로 예측시스템에서 생성된 앙상블 유량예측 결과의 신뢰도 분석과 올바른 불확실성 정보의 제공이 필요하다. 본 연구는 확률론적 홍수예측 방법을 국내에 적용시켜서 기상청의 예측시스템 KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System), MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation), UM(Unified Model) 그리고 MOGREPS(Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System)으로부터 생성된 기상앙상블을 현재 국토해양부 홍수통제소에서 사용하고 있는 강우-유출모형인 저류함수모형(Storage Function Method)의 입력 자료로 사용한다. 확률론적 홍수예측에서 오는 불확실성을 분석하기 위해서 첫 번째로 제공되는 기상예측 시스템의 시 공간적 스케일 및 대상유역의 공간특성에 따라 어떠한 형태로 전파되어지는지를 분석하였다. 두 번째는 각각의 예측시스템들이 선행기간(Lead time)에 따라 불확실성의 특성이 어떻게 나타나게 되는지를 확인하였다. 이러한 불확실성의 특성을 정확하게 파악하게 된다면 예측에 있어서 현재 갖고 있는 문제점들로부터 개선해 나가야 할 방향을 제시해주어 향후연구에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Toxocara vitulorum Infections in Buffalo and Cattle Calves in Three Provinces of Central Cambodia

  • Dorny, Pierre;Devleesschauwer, Brecht;Stoliaroff, Valerie;Sothy, Meas;Chea, Rortana;Chea, Bunthon;Sourloing, Hor;Samuth, Sum;Kong, Seth;Nguong, Koemseang;Sorn, San;Holl, Davun;Vercruysse, Jozef
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.197-200
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    • 2015
  • The prevalence and associated risk factors of Toxocara vitulorum infection in buffalo and cattle calves was studied in 3 provinces in central Cambodia. Fecal samples were collected from 517 calves between the age of 1-15 weeks and processed for nematode egg counts by a modified McMaster method. A total of 64 calves were found to excrete T. vitulorum eggs in their feces (12.4%; 95% exact CI: 9.7-15.5). The mean fecal egg count was 2,798 EPG (SD=16,351; range=0-224,400). A multivariable generalized linear mixed model showed higher odds of T. vitulorum infection for buffalo versus cattle, for animals aged 4-8 weeks versus younger and older ones, and for animals with strongyle infection. There was no association with fecal consistency. Farmers should be aware of the potential impact of T. vitulorum, and treat their calves at the age of 2-3 weeks with anthelmintics such as benzimidazoles or pyrantel.

Effect of the Electro-acupuncture Stimulation into the Multifidus on Subjective Pain and Lumbar Flexibility in Patients with Chronic Low Back Pain (만성요통 환자의 다열근에 적용한 전침이 통증 및 유연성에 미치는 효과)

  • Jang, Won-Seok;Park, Hung-Ki;Kim, Keun-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the electro-acupuncture stimulation into the multifidus for the lumbar flexibility improvement and pain reduction. The subjects were consisted of 20 women patients with chronic low back pain. Methods : 20 women patients with chronic low back pain voluntary participated for the research. 15 minute electro-acupuncture stimulation(frequency: 4Hz, Intensity: below threshold of pain) with Infra-red therapy, 3 times a week during 6 weeks period. Acupuncture application given to the patients' trigger point of the multifidus. The Application of multifidus was L3, L4, L5 spinal vertebra levels Short form McGill pain questionnaire (SFMPQ) was used to measure patient's pain level. Lumbar flexibility measurement was trunk flexion and trunk extension. Global Perceived Effect Scale(GPES) was used to measure recovery or worse of patient's condition. Results : SFMPQ was after treatment showed significantly decreased more than before stimulation treatment (P<.05). Lumbar flexibility was after treatment showed significantly increase more than before treatment(P<.05). GPES was after treatment showed significantly increased more than before treatment(p<.05). Conclusion : This study will be used as treatment method of patient with chronic LBP. The multifidus muscle in chronic LBP patients clinical significance. Most of chronic LBP patients have multifidus contraction pattern. So chronic LBP patients necessary multifidus muscle release treatment.

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The Effect of Sa-am acupuncture on Knee Osteoarthritis

  • Min, Moo-Hong;Choi, Yeong-Gon;Kim, Yun-Ju;Park, Hi-Joon;Lee, Sam-Chool;Joo, Ho-No;Han, Seung-Moo;Lim, Sa-Bi-Na
    • Korean Journal of Acupuncture
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2009
  • Objective : Acupuncture has been widely used throughout the world for the treatment of knee osteoarthritis (knee OA). This study investigated whether acupuncture, particularly Sa-am acupuncture, could be effective in relieving pain and improving the symptoms of knee OA. Method : This study was conducted as a prospective, randomized, controlled, and patient- and investigator-blinded clinical trial. Forty volunteers with knee OA participated in the study. All participants were screened through an inclusion and exclusion criteria. Thirty four participants completed the clinical trial. In total, forty subjects were randomly selected to receive Sa-am acupuncture. Eight sessions of acupuncture were given at the contralateral side of the problematic knee for 4 weeks. Korean translation of Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (KWOMAC) scores were measured twice: at the beginning and end of the clinical trial period. Both the Patient Global Assessment and physical health scores based on the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey were also used to measure the results. Results : Compared to the pre-trial scores, the Sa-am acupuncture group (n=34) showed a significant decrease in KWOMAC total scores according to a paired t-test. The Sa-am acupuncture group also showed significant improvement in the Patient Global Assessment when compared to the pre-trial. Conclusions : Sa-am acupuncture for knee OA resulted in an improved KWOMAC total score. This was mostly driven by the function component score that was greatly affected by acupuncture. However, further studies with expanded designs are needed to solidify this finding with scientific rigor.

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Changes in Pain, Fatigue, Perceived Health Status, Joint Stiffness, Disability in ADL, and Depression after Tai Chi for Arthritis Program (관절염 환자를 위한 타이치 프로그램 적용 후 통증, 피로, 인지된 건강상태, 관절뻣뻣함, 일상활동장애, 우울의 변화)

  • Lee, Kyung-Sook;So, Ae-Young;Choi, Jung-Sook;Lee, Eun-Hee;Yoo, Bo-BI
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to observe the changes of the pain, fatigue, perceived health status, disability in ADL, and depression after Tai Chi for arthritis. Method: The subjects were 19 osteoarthritis women enrolled at one primary health care post. They have agreed to participate in this study, and participated in the 12-week Tai Chi program from Dec. 2006 to Mar. 2007, and all the measurement processes in right after, 2 months later, and 4 months later after Tai Chi program. The measurement tools of this study were all self-reported questionnaires such as Numerical Rating Scale (0-100) for pain, fatigue, and perceived health status, Korean-WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis) Index for joint stiffness, Korean Health Assessment Questionnaire, and CES-Depression scale. Results: The repeated measure ANOVA revealed the significant differences on pain among the right after, 2 months later, and 4 months later the program. Especially 2 months later after program, pain was significantly increased than right after by t-test. There were no significant differences on fatigue, perceived health status, disability in ADL, and depression. Conclusion: Pain was increased after Tai Chi for arthritis program, but fatigue, perceived health status, disability in ADL, and depression were not changed until 4 months after Tai Chi program.

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A Study on the Occurrence of Benzo(a)pyrene in Fats and Oils by Heat Treatment(II) (油脂加熱시 Benzo(a)pyrene 生成에 관한 硏究(II) -닭튀김 및 튀김유 중에서-)

  • Kim, In-Sook;Ahn, Myung-Soo
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 1994
  • Benzo(a)pyrene [B(a)P], one of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) is know as a potent careinogen. As consumption of lipid food and fried food increases recently, the toxic effect of overheated lipid foods has report increasingly. This study was undertaken to measure the contents of B(a)P and other PAHs of fried chicken and frying oil. At the same time, the rancidities of frying oil and descarded oil were determined. B(a)P and other PAHs contents of all samples were measured by HPLC/UV method. The results obtained were as follows; B(a)P contents of fresh chicken and soybean oil were 0.073 and 0.146 ${\mu}$g/kg, respectively. During fried chicken at 180${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$ and 200${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$, B(a)P and PAHs contens decreased or increased In 20 times fried chicken, PAHs contents except Pyr and DMBA increased at 180${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$ and PAHs contents except DMBA, DBA, and 3-MC increased at 200${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$. In frying oils fried chicken, PAHs contents increased in 10 and 15 times frying oil at 180${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$ and grew more increase and more increase during frying at 200${\pm}$5$^{\circ}C$. The changing pattern of PAHs contents of frying oils was remotely related that of rancidities of frying oils. In fried chicken, frying oils, and discarded oils obtained from fried chicken house at market, PAHs contents of fried chickens were lower than those of fried chicken cooked at laboratory but those of frying oils and discarded oils were higher than those of frying oils cooked at laboratory.

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Corrosion Behavior of Aluminium Coupled to a Sacrificial Anode in Seawater (희생양극 하에서 알루미늄의 해수 부식 거동)

  • Kim Jong-Soo;Kim Hee-San
    • Journal of the Korean institute of surface engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2006
  • Al-Mg alloy, an open rack vaporizer(ORV) material was reported to be corroded in seawater environments though the ORV material was coupled to thermally sprayed Al-Zn alloy functioning a sacrificial anode. In addition, the corrosion behavior based on the calculated corrosion potential did not match the observed corrosion behavior. Hence, the goal of this study is to get better understanding on Al or Al-Mg alloy coupled to Al-Zn alloy and to provide the calculated corrosion potential representing the corrosion behavior of the ORV material by immersion test, electrochemical tests, and calculation of corrosion and galvanic potential. The corrosion potentials of Al and Al alloys also depended on alloying element as well as surface defects. The corrosion potentials of Al and Al-Mg alloy were changed with time. In the meantime, the corrosion potentials of Al-Zn alloys were not. The corrosion rates of Al-Zn alloys were exponentially increased with zinc contents. The phenomena were explained with the stability of passive film proved by passive current density depending on pH and confirmed by the model proposed by McCafferty. Dissimilar material crevice corrosion (DMCC) test shows that higher content of zinc caused Al-Mg alloy corroded more rapidly, which was due to the fact that higher corrosion rate of Al-Zn makes [$H^+$] and [$Cl^-$] more concentrated within pit solution to corrode Al-Mg alloy. Considering electrochemical reactions within pit as well as bulk in the calculation gives better prediction on the corrosion behavior of Al and Al-Mg alloy as well as the capability of Al-Zn alloy for corrosion protection.

Analysis of Stokes flows by Carrera unified formulation

  • Varello, Alberto;Pagani, Alfonso;Guarnera, Daniele;Carrera, Erasmo
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.363-383
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    • 2018
  • One-dimensional (1D) models of incompressible flows, can be of interest for many applications in which fast resolution times are demanded, such as fluid-structure interaction of flows in compliant pipes and hemodynamics. This work proposes a higher-order 1D theory for the flow-field analysis of incompressible, laminar, and viscous fluids in rigid pipes. This methodology is developed in the domain of the Carrera Unified Formulation (CUF), which was first employed in structural mechanics. In the framework of 1D modelling, CUF allows to express the primary variables (i.e., velocity and pressure fields in the case of incompressible flows) as arbitrary expansions of the generalized unknowns, which are functions of the 1D computational domain coordinate. As a consequence, the governing equations can be expressed in terms of fundamental nuclei, which are invariant of the theory approximation order. Several numerical examples are considered for validating this novel methodology, including simple Poiseuille flows in circular pipes and more complex velocity/pressure profiles of Stokes fluids into non-conventional computational domains. The attention is mainly focused on the use of hierarchical McLaurin polynomials as well as piece-wise nonlocal Lagrange expansions of the generalized unknowns across the pipe section. The preliminary results show the great advantages in terms of computational costs of the proposed method. Furthermore, they provide enough confidence for future extensions to more complex fluid-dynamics problems and fluid-structure interaction analysis.

Influence of the Mars atmosphere model on aerodynamics of an entry capsule: Part II

  • Zuppardi, Gennaro
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.229-249
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    • 2020
  • This paper is the logical follow-up of four papers by the author on the subject "aerodynamics in Mars atmosphere". The aim of the papers was to evaluate the influence of two Mars atmosphere models (NASA Glenn and GRAM-2001) on aerodynamics of a capsule (Pathfinder) entering the Mars atmosphere and also to verify the feasibility of evaluating experimentally the ambient density and the ambient pressure by means of the methods by McLaughlin and Cassanto respectively, therefore to correct the values provided by the models. The study was carried out computationally by means of: i) a code integrating the equations of dynamics of an entry capsule for the computation of the trajectories, ii) two Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes for the solution of the 2-D, axial-symmetric and 3-D flow fields around the capsule in the altitude interval 50-100 km. The computations verified that the entry trajectories of Pathfinder from the two models, in terms of the Mach, Reynolds and Knudsen numbers, were very different. The aim of the present paper is to continue this study, considering other aerodynamic problems and then to provide a contribution to a long series of papers on the subject "aerodynamics in Mars atmosphere". More specifically, the present paper evaluated and quantified the effects from the two models of: i) chemical reactions on aerodynamic quantities in the shock layer, ii) surface temperature, therefore of the contribution of the re-emitted molecules, on local (pressure, skin friction, etc.) and on global (drag) quantities, iii) surface recombination reactions (catalyticity) on heat flux. The results verified that the models heavily influence the flow field (as per the shock wave structure) but, apart from the surface recombination reactions, the effects of the different conditions on aerodynamics of the capsule are negligible for both models and confirmed what already found in the previous paper that, because of the higher values of density from the NASA Glenn model, the effects on aerodynamics of a entry capsule are stronger than those computed by the GRAM-2001 model.

An exploratory study of stress wave communication in concrete structures

  • Ji, Qing;Ho, Michael;Zheng, Rong;Ding, Zhi;Song, Gangbing
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2015
  • Large concrete structures are prone to cracks and damages over time from human usage, weathers, and other environmental attacks such as flood, earthquakes, and hurricanes. The health of the concrete structures should be monitored regularly to ensure safety. A reliable method of real time communications can facilitate more frequent structural health monitoring (SHM) updates from hard to reach positions, enabling crack detections of embedded concrete structures as they occur to avoid catastrophic failures. By implementing an unconventional mode of communication that utilizes guided stress waves traveling along the concrete structure itself, we may be able to free structural health monitoring from costly (re-)installation of communication wires. In stress-wave communications, piezoelectric transducers can act as actuators and sensors to send and receive modulated signals carrying concrete status information. The new generation of lead zirconate titanate (PZT) based smart aggregates cause multipath propagation in the homogeneous concrete channel, which presents both an opportunity and a challenge for multiple sensors communication. We propose a time reversal based pulse position modulation (TR-PPM) communication for stress wave communication within the concrete structure to combat multipath channel dispersion. Experimental results demonstrate successful transmission and recovery of TR-PPM using stress waves. Compared with PPM, we can achieve higher data rate and longer link distance via TR-PPM. Furthermore, TR-PPM remains effective under low signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. This work also lays the foundation for implementing multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) stress wave communication networks in concrete channels.