• Title/Summary/Keyword: Loss Probability

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Optimum Intensity for Seismic Design of Major Man-made Structures in Korea (한반도내(韓半島內) 주요(主要) 인공구조물(人工構造物)의 적정(適正) 내진설계진도(耐震設計震度))

  • Kim, Sung Kyun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.297-304
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    • 1986
  • Earthquake disaster is dependent upon both site intensity and strength of structures. The higher the strength, structures become more safe, which in turn increases the construction cost. Therefore, it is necessary to decide an optimum design intensity in which the safety is balanced with the cost. Such an optimum design intensity for major man-made structures in Korea is determined in the present study from a simulation model as follows. 1) Hypothetical earthquake time series are generated from the probability distribution to represent appropriately the seismicity of Korea. 2) The strength of structures constructed with a certain design intensity is assumed to exponentially decrease with the elapsed time. The construction cost is also expressed as a function of design intensity. 3) Comparing the seismic intensity generated from the earthquake time series with the strength of structures, the safety of structures is examined. Then the time until the structure is damaged by an earthquake is obtained within the designed life time. 4) The above simulation is iterated several hundred times and hence the mean life time of structures having a certain design intensity is obtained. 5) After all, the optimum design intensity to minimize the annual mean loss, the ratio of construction cost to mean life time, is estimated. The major conclusions obtained from the above simulation model are as follows. 1) Depending upon the designed life time ($T_p$), the optimum design intensities are appeared to be 0. 05-0. 10g for $T_p=50yr$ and 0. 08-0.13g for $T_p=100yr$. 2) According to the sensitivity analysis, the optimum design intensity increases with the rapid strength decrease of structure and decreases with the increase of initial construction cost.

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Stable Message Transmission Protocol Considering Remaining Energy of Nodes on Wireless Networks (무선네트워크에서 노드의 에너지를 고려한 종단간 안정성 있는 메시지 전송 프로토콜)

  • Duong, Mai Dinh;Kim, Myung-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1215-1223
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    • 2014
  • In multi-hop wireless networks, a message transmission path is set up on demand by a route discovery step, where a shortest path is used in general. The shortest path, however, normally uses the nodes near the center area, which causes a high traffic load in that area and reduces the message transmission reliability. We propose a stable routing protocol considering the remaining energy of nodes. Our protocol uses ETX as a link performance estimator and tries to avoid the nodes with smaller energy. By doing this, we can reduce the route failure probability and packet loss. We have evaluated the performance of the proposed protocol using QualNet and compared with AODV and MRFR protocols. The simulation result shows that our protocol has a similar performance as MRFR in terms of end-to-end message reception ratio, average message delay and delay jitter, but outperforms MRFR in terms of traffic load distribution.

Design and Application of Harmonic Passive Filter (고조파 수동필터의 설계 및 적용)

  • Jeon, Jeong-Chay;Kim, Jae-Hyun;Yoo, Jae-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5397-5402
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    • 2012
  • Accidents involving electric equipment and economical loss by power quality deterioration related to harmonics show a rising tendency A passive filter is economic and efficient in suppressing harmonics but many engineers and designers are reluctant to install a passive filter to defect harmonics at their power system because of problems such as harmonic amplification and the probability of generating series or parallel resonance with the power system. This work introduces that passive filters will be very available to defeat harmonic problems of the power system if passive filters are well designed. We describe method and process of harmonic passive filter design. And the passive filter for the power system having harmonic problems due to use of nonlinear loads like as 100HP DC motor system, an extruding machine, an air blower and other loads are designed. Experimental results verify the performance of the passive filter designed by the described method and procedure.

Visualization Technology of GIS Associated with Seismic Fragility Analysis of Buried Pipelines in the Domestic Urban Area (국내 도심지 매설가스배관의 지진취약도 분석 연계 GIS 정보 가시화 기술)

  • Lee, Jinhyuk;Cha, Kyunghwa;Song, Sangguen;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2015
  • City-based Lifeline is expected to cause significant social and economic loss accompanied the secondary damage such as paralysis of urban functions and a large fire as well as the collapse caused by earthquake. Earthquake Disaster Response System of Korea is being operated with preparation, calculates the probability of failure of the facility through Seismic Fragility Model and evaluates the degree of earthquake disaster. In this paper, the time history analysis of buried gas pipeline in city-based lifeline was performed with consideration for ground characteristics and also seismic fragility model was developed by maximum likelihood estimation method. Analysis model was selected as the high-pressure pipe and the normal-pressure pipe buried in the city of Seoul, Korea's representative, modeling of soil was used for Winkler foundation model. Also, method to apply developed fragility model at GIS is presented.

Buffer Management Algorithm for Performance Improvement in WBAN (WBAN 환경에서 성능향상을 위한 버퍼 관리 알고리즘)

  • Kim, JiWon;Kim, Kanghee;Lee, ChangHo;Choi, SangBang
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.106-114
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    • 2015
  • Wireless Body Area Network(WBAN) is a network standard around a human body which connects various medical sensor and devices It has to satisfy various demands such as data transmission rate, priority, and delay time. In this paper, considering a data priority and transmission delay time, is proposed to improve efficiency of WBAN service depending on congestion status of network. The proposed algorithm operates with adapted data removal probability according to data priority when the hub buffer is congested than before. And in the case of lower congestion within the hub buffer data is served considering data delay time. Through the comparison with other existing scheduling algorithms, it is confirmed that quality of WBAN service is improved due to lower data loss rate of medical data and less delay time in the proposed algorithm.

A TDMA-based Relay Protocol for Voice Communication on a Small Group (소규모 그룹에서의 음성 통신을 위한 TDMA 기반의 릴레이 프로토콜)

  • Hwang, Sangho;Park, Chang-Hyeon;Ahn, Byoungchul
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2013
  • Since the wireless communications have a limited transmission, the devices just around a master node can exchange data. Though Bluetooth and Zigbee support ad hoc, they are not appropriate for real-time voice communications. In this paper, we present a TDMA-based relay protocol for several users to communicate simultaneously. The proposed protocol can relay data or voice to other nodes in real-time by the multi-hop transmission method using TDMA. And the proposed protocol improves the network performance by allocating different frequencies to the slaves depending on the routing path scheduled by the routing table. NS-2 simulation shows that the performance of the proposed protocol is good in terms of the transmission delay and pecket loss probability in the real-time voice transmission.

Regression models for interval-censored semi-competing risks data with missing intermediate transition status (중간 사건이 결측되었거나 구간 중도절단된 준 경쟁 위험 자료에 대한 회귀모형)

  • Kim, Jinheum;Kim, Jayoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1311-1327
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    • 2016
  • We propose a multi-state model for analyzing semi-competing risks data with interval-censored or missing intermediate events. This model is an extension of the 'illness-death model', which composes three states, such as 'healthy', 'diseased', and 'dead'. The state of 'diseased' can be considered as an intermediate event. Two more states are added into the illness-death model to describe missing events caused by a loss of follow-up before the end of the study. One of them is a state of 'LTF', representing a lost-to-follow-up, and the other is an unobservable state that represents the intermediate event experienced after LTF occurred. Given covariates, we employ the Cox proportional hazards model with a normal frailty and construct a full likelihood to estimate transition intensities between states in the multi-state model. Marginalization of the full likelihood is completed using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature, and the optimal solution of the regression parameters is achieved through the iterative Newton-Raphson algorithm. Simulation studies are carried out to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure in terms of the empirical coverage probability of the true regression parameter. Our proposed method is also illustrated with the dataset adapted from Helmer et al. (2001).

Computer Adaptive Testing Method for Measuring Disability in Patients With Back Pain

  • Choi, Bongsam
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2012
  • Most conventional instruments measuring disability rely on total score by simply adding individual item responses, which is dependent on the items chosen to represent the underlying construct (test-dependent) and a test statistic, such as coefficient alpha for the estimate of reliability, varying from sample to sample (sample-dependent). By contrast, item response theory (IRT) method focuses on the psychometric properties of the test items instead of the instrument as a whole. By estimating probability that a respondent will select a particular rating for an item, item difficulty and person ability (or disability) can be placed on same linear continuum. These estimates are invariant regardless of the item used (test-free measurement) and the ability of sample applied (sample-free measurement). These advantages of IRT allow the creation of invariantly calibrated large item banks that precisely discriminate the disability levels of individuals. Computer adaptive testing (CAT) method often requiring a testing algorithm promise a means for administering items in a way that is both efficient and precise. This method permits selectively administering items that are closely matched to the ability level of individuals (measurement precision) and measuring the ability without the loss of precision provided by the full item bank (measurement efficiency). These measurement properties can reasonably be achieved using IRT and CAT method. This article aims to investigate comprehensive overview of the existing disability instrument for back pain and to inform physical therapists of an alternative innovative way overcoming the shortcomings of conventional disability instruments. An understanding of IRT and CAT method will equip physical therapist with skills in interpreting the measurement properties of disability instruments developed using the methods.

A Linear Analysis of the Relation between Rainfall and Runoff for Peak Flow based on Geomorphologic IUH (지형학적(地形學的) 순간단위도(瞬間單位圖)에 의한 첨두유량(尖頭流量)의 강우(降雨)-유출(流出) 선형해석(線形解析))

  • Lee, Jung Sik;Kim, Jae Han;Lee, Won Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 1987
  • The schemes synthesizing the instantaneous unit hydrograph(IUH) are presented by using the geomorphologic parameters of a basin. To this end, the channels in the network are numbered according to the Strahler scheme, and the mathematical formulation corresponding to a dynamic probability theory for deriving the geomorphologic IUH(GUH) is refered to the existing techniques adopted by Rodriguez-Iturbe and Valdes. Also, the mean runoff velocity is applied for expressing a dynamic state of flow. The applicability of the GUH to the real drainage basins is tested by using the data observed in a few basins with areas of the order of 9.2, 20, 33.63, and $109.73km^2$ in Korea. The test is carried out by checking the discrepancies between the observed and simulated values for the peak discharge and its time of occurrence which are the most important parameters of an IUH by varing the mean runoff velocity and the inputs. As a result, good agreement is found between them, and it is shown that the variability in peak discharge of hydrograph depends on the mean runoff velocity more than the constant loss rate.

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Empirical Analysis on the Stress Test Using Credit Migration Matrix (신용등급 전이행렬을 활용한 위기상황분석에 관한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.253-268
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we estimate systematic risk from credit migration (or transition) matrices under "Asymptotic Single Risk Factor" model. We analyzed transition matrices issued by KR(Korea Ratings) and concluded that systematic risk implied on credit migration somewhat coincide with the real economic cycle. Especially, we found that systematic risk implied on credit migration is better than that implied on the default rate. We also emphasize how to conduct a stress test using systematic risk extracted from transition migration. We argue that the proposed method in this paper is better than the usual method that is only considered for the conditional probability of default(PD). We found that the expected loss critically increased when we explicitly consider the change of credit quality in a given portfolio, compared to the method considering only PD.