• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term scenarios

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Chronic Effect Exposed to Carbon Dioxide in Benthic Environment with Marine Invertebrates Copepod(Tisbe sp.) and Amphipod(Monocorophium acherusicum) (저서환경에서 이산화탄소 노출에 따른 국내산 해산무척추동물 요각류(Tisbe sp.)와 단각류(Monocorophium acherusicum)의 만성영향)

  • Moon, Seong-Dae;Choi, Tae Seob;Sung, Chan-Gyoung;Lee, Jung-Suk;Park, Young-Gyu;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.359-369
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    • 2013
  • Chronic effects such as reproduction and population dynamics with elevated $CO_2$ concentration were evaluated using two representative marine benthic species, copepod (Tisbe sp.) and amphipod (Monocorophium acherusicum) adopting long-term exposure. Juvenile copepod and amphipod individuals were cultivated in the seawater equilibrated with control air (0.395 mmol $CO_2$/air mol) and high $CO_2$ air having 0.998, to 3.03, 10.3, and 30.1 mmol $CO_2$/air mol during 20 and 46 days, respectively. After the exposure period, the number of benthic invertebrate was counted with separate larval and juvenile stage such as naupliar, copepodid and adult for copepod, or neonate and adult for amphipod, respectively. The individual number of both test species at each life-stage was significantly decreased in seawater with 10.3 mmol $CO_2$/air mol or higher. Recently, the technology of marine $CO_2$ sequestration has been developed for the reduction of $CO_2$ emission, which may cause climate change. However, under various scenarios of $CO_2$ leaks during the injection process or sequestrated $CO_2$ in marine geological structure, the potential risk to organism including various invertebrates can be expected to exposure. So the results of this study suggested that the detailed consideration on the adverse effect with marine ecosystem can be prerequisite for the marine $CO_2$ sequestration projects.

Evaluating Changes and Uncertainty of Nitrogen Load from Rice Paddy according to the Climate Change Scenario Multi-Model Ensemble (기후변화시나리오 다중모형 앙상블에 따른 논 질소 유출 부하량 변동 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Kun;Jeong, Jaehak;Yeob, So-Jin;Kim, Minwook;Kim, Jin Ho;Kim, Min-Kyeong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.5
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    • pp.47-62
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    • 2020
  • Rice paddy accounts for approximately 52.5% of all farmlands in South Korea, and it is closely related to the water environment. Climate change is expected to affect not only agricultural productivity also the water and the nutrient circulation. Therefore this study was aimed to evaluate changes of nitrogen load from rice paddy considering climate change scenario uncertainty. APEX-Paddy model which reflect rice paddy environment by modifying APEX (Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender) model was used. Using the AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) offered by the APEC Climate Center, bias correction was conducted for 9 GCMs using non-parametric quantile mapping. Bias corrected climate change scenarios were applied to the APEX-Paddy model. The changes and uncertainty in runoff and nitrogen load were evaluated using multi-model ensemble. Paddy runoff showed a change of 23.1% for RCP4.5 scenario and 45.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared the 2085s (2071 to 2100) against the base period (1976 to 2005). The nitrogen load was found to be increased as 43.9% for RCP4.5 scenario and 76.0% for RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty analysis showed that the annual standard deviation of nitrogen loads increased in the future, and the maximum entropy indicated an increasing tendency. And Duncan's analysis showed significant differences among GCMs as the future progressed. The result of this study seems to be used as a basis for mid- and long-term policies for water resources and water system environment considering climate change.

A Study on Trend Analysis in Sea Level Data Through MK Test and Quantile Regression Analysis (MK 검정 및 분위회귀분석을 통한 해수면 자료의 경향성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kim, Yong-Tak;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Hwang, Kyu-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2015
  • Population and urban development along the coast is growing in South Korea, and particularly sea level rise is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal areas. This study aims to investigate the sea level rise through Mann-Kendall(MK) test, ordinary linear regression(OR) and quantile regression analysis(QRA) with sea level data at the 20 tide stations along the coast of Korean Peninsula. First, statistically significant long-term trends were analysed using a non-parametric MK test and the test indicated statistically significant trends for 18 and 10 stations at the 5% significance level in the annual mean value of sea level and the annual maximum value of sea level, respectively. The QRA method showed better performance in terms of characterizing the degree of trend. QRA showed that an average annual rise in mean sea level is about 1-6 mm/year, and an average rise in maximum sea level is about 1-20 mm. It was found that upward convergent and upward divergent were a representative change given the nine-category distributional changes. We expect that in future work we will address nonstationarities with respect to sea level that were identified above, and develop a nonstationary frequency analysis with climate change scenarios.

Determination of Optimum Design Capacity of Bio-retention for Improvement of Urban Water Cycle (도시 물 순환 개선을 위한 생태저류지의 최적설계용량 결정)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Choi, Jeonghyeon;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.745-753
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    • 2017
  • In this study, a design strategy is proposed to restore the distorted urban water cycle to the natural water cycle through the LID facility. This is accomplished by determining the optimal LID facility design capacity through which flow duration curves remain the same before and after urban development. A part of the Noksan National Industrial Complex in Busan was selected as the study area and EPA SWMM was constructed to simulate long-term stormwater for various land use scenarios and LID facility design capacity. In the case that the study area was assumed to be a forest area or an agricultural area before urban development, it was found that it was necessary to allocate 7.3% or 5.5% of the impervious area to the area of the bio-retention in order for the flow duration curve to remain the same as before urban development. As a result of the sensitivity analysis of the bio-retention design capacity according to regional rainfall characteristics, the design capacity of 3.8~5.5% of impervious area is needed for the development of agriculture area. Therefore, it can be seen that the optimum capacity can be significantly different according to regional rainfall characteristics. On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the sensitivity of the design capacity according to the variation of the depth of each layer constituting the bio-retention and the size of contributing catchment area, the sensitivity of the optimal design capacity with respect to the design specifications of the bio-retention and the size of contributing catchment area was not significant.

Environmental Impacts Assessment of ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) Using Material Life Cycle Assessment (물질전과정평가(MLCA)를 통한 투명전극 ITO (Indium Tin Oxide)의 환경성 평가)

  • Lee, Soo-Sun;Lee, Na-Ri;Kim, Kyeong-Il;Hong, Tae-Whan
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we executed an environmental impact assessment about recycling of ITO (Indium Tin Oxide), used for touch panel. ITO is mainly used to make transparent conductive coatings for touch and flat screen LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), ELD (Emitting Light Device), PDP (Plasma Display Panel). This demand is increasing little by little. but form current status, ITO is discarded than recycling. It is important to recycling ITO for national strategies about resource conservation, and reduce environmental burden. Also Landfill or incineration of ITO cloud be harmful to the human health in the long-term. Material Life Cycle Assessment method (MLCA) was conducted for comparison landfill and recycling of ITO. MLCA would provide more information for environmental issues and potential environmental impacts of ITO. The study includes two scenarios, the basic scenario is recycling of ITO (10, 20, 30%) and the other scenario is landfill of ITO. In addition, amount of carbon dioxide and energy were calculated.

A Business Model for Application of the Modular Building in the Rental Market (건축 임대시장에서 모듈러 건축의 적용성 연구 - 수익성 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Jongsik;Shin, Dongwoo;Cha, Heesung;Kim, Kyungrai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2015
  • The current real estate market is in a state that is considerably shrink due to the recession and long-term reduction of trading. In response, the government recently announced an innovative way for the middle-class residential housing and it is taking the lead to activate the real estate market. Meanwhile, the domestic housing market is entering a transition period, including structural changes of household structure, changes from joeonse to rent increasingly. Also single-member households will rise steeply, so that makes the high demand of small houses. In addition, the domestic construction industry is interested in new technology called Modular building. The Modular construction is an off-site construction system that shorten construction period, eco-friendly building technology and mobility etc, which can be used in various field. Overall, there are two major issues of the current market, one is the change of the real estate market, and the other is the modular construction. This study will propose modular business model in the rental market through the analysis the profitability of the modular business scenarios and IRR analysis.

Study on Market Prospects, Financing Challenges and Alternative Solutions in New Nuclear Power Projects (신규 원전의 시장전망 및 금융조달의 과제와 대안)

  • Lee, Jang-pyo
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2016
  • Although construction of any new nuclear power projects had not been launched since mid-1970s until recently in the USA, many new nuclear power plants have been constructed in many countries with the support of their governments mainly as part of their national energy security and electric source diversification policies. For many reasons, the nuclear power industry seemed to reclaim their renaissance from the beginning of this century and the investment in the nuclear power projects draw positive concern from the private financial sector. But the global financial crisis in 2008 and subsequent economic slow-down together with tighter bank credit regulations caused commercial banks, the main source of financing, to lose appetite for investing in new nuclear power projects. But the nuclear power economics shows that the nuclear power is viable in terms of the environmental benefit and long-term average cost compared to other power generation sources. Also doubt about nuclear power safety was much mitigated due to technology development and reinforced safety-related tests and monitoring. Therefore, the prospect for nuclear power market expansion remains positive although there are comparatively big differences among different scenarios. After Korea Electric Power Corp. won the UAE nuclear power project in December of 2009, the competition in nuclear power markets is undergoing huge changes. Competitors backed by the support of their own governments are now entering the market with many aggressive and innovative financing packages to win bids of new nuclear power projects. This report analyzed the nuclear power market prospects, competitive edges of nuclear power, risk management measures, and financing challenges and recommends alternative solutions to promote competitive edges in winning bids of new nuclear power projects.

An Analysis on Evacuation Scenario at Metro-stations using Pedestrian Movement-based Simulation Model (보행류 기반 도시철도역사 평가 시뮬레이터를 활용한 대피 시나리오 분석)

  • You, So-young;Jung, Rea-hyuck;Chung, Jin-hyuck
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.36-49
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    • 2016
  • A subway system is one of the major transportation modes at a metropolitan area. When it meets the other lines, the metro station, so-called transferring station, is usually threatened by severe pedestrian congestion and safety issue of transit users including the transportation vulnerable. Although transportation planners forecast travel demand at the beginning, it is not easy to predict pedestrian flows precisely for a long term if land use plans have dramatically changed. Due to expensive costs, structural extension of metro stations is limited. Therefore, it requires efficient and technical improvements as meeting the demand of pedestrian and physical characteristics. In this study, the core mechanism of pedestrian movement-based simulation model was introduced and evacuation scenarios were analyzed with the developed model. As a result, the multiple optimal routes for unexpected events at the solid space of the multiple stories are easily searched through the simulator and in the case of Sadang Station, travel time can be reduced by 60% when the evacuation information and intuitive design are provided.

MODFLOW or FEFLOW: A Case Study of Groundwater Model Selection for the Upper Waikato Catchment, New Zealand

  • Weir, Julian;Moore, Dr Catherine;Hadfield, John
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2011
  • Groundwater in the Waikatoregion is a valuable resource for agriculture, water supply, forestry and industries. The 434,000 ha study area comprises the upper Waikato River catchment from the outflow of Lake Taupo (New Zealand's largest lake) through to Lake Karapiro (a man-made hydro lake with high recreational value) (Figure 1). Water quality in the area is naturally high. However, there are indications that this quality is deteriorating as a result of land use intensification and deforestation. Compounding this concern for decision makers is the lag time between land use changes and the realisation of effects on groundwater and surface water quality. It is expected that the effects of land use changes have not yet fully manifested, and additional intensification may take decadesto fully develop, further compounding the deterioration. Consequently, Environment Waikato (EW) have proposed a programme of work to develop a groundwater model to assist managing water quality and appropriate policy development within the catchment. One of the most important and critical decisions of any modelling exercise is the choice of the modelling platform to be used. It must not inhibit future decision making and scenario exploration and needs to allow as accurate representation of reality as feasible. With this in mind, EW requested that two modelling platforms, MODFLOW/MT3DMS and FEFLOW, be assessed for their ability to deliver the long-term modelling objectives for this project. The two platforms were compared alongside various selection criteria including complexity of model set-up and development, computational burden, ease and accuracy of representing surface water-groundwater interactions, precision in predictive scenarios and ease with which the model input and output files could be interrogated. This latter criteria is essential for the thorough assessment of predictive uncertainty with third-party software, such as PEST. This paper will focus on the attributes of each modelling platform and the comparison of the two approaches against the key criteria in the selection process. Primarily due to the ease of handling and developing input files and interrogating output files, MODFLOW/MT3DMS was selected as the preferred platform. Other advantages and disadvantages of the two modelling platforms were somewhat balanced. A preliminary regional groundwater numerical model of the study area was subsequently constructed. The model simulates steady state groundwater and surface water flows using MODFLOW and transient contaminant transport with MT3DMS, focussing on nitrate nitrogen (as a conservative solute). Geological information for this project was provided by GNS Science. Professional peer review was completed by Dr. Vince Bidwell (of Lincoln Environmental).

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GIS-based Network Analysis for the Understanding of Aggregate Resources Supply-demand and Distribution in 2018 (GIS 네트워크 분석을 이용한 2018년 골재의 수요-공급과 유통 해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Hong, Sei Sun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.515-533
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    • 2021
  • Based on the supply location, demand location, and transportation network, aggregate supply-demand characteristics and aggregate distribution status were analyzed from the results of the closest distance, service areas, and location-allocation scenarios using GIS network analysis. As a result, it was found that the average transport distance of aggregates from the supplier was 6 km on average, the average range of 7 km for sand, and 10 km for gravel was found to reach the destination. In particular, the simulated service area covers about 92% in Seoul-Gyeonggi Province, 85% in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Province, and more than 90% in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungnam Province. These results have a significant implication in quantitatively interpreting primary data on aggregate supply-demand. Furthermore, these results suggest the possibility of a wide-area quantitative analysis of aggregate supply regions necessary for establishing a basic aggregate plan. The results also evaluated by the site-allocation scenario show that aggregate supply may be possible through companies less than 200 with large-amounts quarries, which is the 700 companies currently supplying small amounts of aggregates on the country. Therefore, in terms of distribution of aggregates, a policy approach is needed to form an appropriate market for regions with high and low density of aggregate supply services, and the necessity of regional distribution and re-evaluation is suggested through an aggregate supply analysis demand across the country. Furthermore, in analyzing the supply-demand network for the aggregate market, additional research is needed to establish long-term policies for the aggregate industry and related industries.