• 제목/요약/키워드: Long-term drought

검색결과 139건 처리시간 0.022초

Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Gyeongbuk Based on the Duration of Standard Precipitation Index

  • Ahn, Seung Seop;Park, Ki bum;Yim, Dong Hee
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제28권10호
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    • pp.863-872
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    • 2019
  • Using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), this study analyzed the drought characteristics of ten weather stations in Gyeongbuk, South Korea, that precipitation data over a period of 30 years. For the number of months that had a SPI of -1.0 or less, the drought occurrence index was calculated and a maximum shortage months, resilience and vulnerability in each weather station were analyzed. According to the analysis, in terms of vulnerability, the weather stations with acute short-term drought were Andong, Bonghwa, Moongyeong, and Gumi. The weather stations with acute medium-term drought were Daegu and Uljin. Finally the weather stations with acute long-term drought were Pohang, Youngdeok, and Youngju. In terms of severe drought frequency, the stations with relatively high frequency of mid-term droughts were Andong, Bonghwa, Daegu, Uiseong, Uljin, and Youngju. Gumi station had high frequency of short-term droughts. Pohang station had severe short-term ad long-term droughts. Youngdeok had severe droughts during all the terms. Based on the analysis results, it is inferred that the size of the drought should be evaluated depending on how serious vulnerability, resilience, and drought index are. Through proper evaluation of drought, it is possible to take systematic measures for the duration of the drought.

일 단위 강수량의 누적 패턴을 이용한 가뭄지수 개발 및 적용 (Development and Application of Drought Index Based on Accumulative Pattern of Daily Rainfall)

  • 권민성;박동혁;전경수;김태웅
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제49권1호
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구에서는 일강수량의 누적 패턴을 고려하여 새로운 가뭄지수(RADI)를 개발하였다. RADI는 누적 강수량의 장기간의 평균과 특정 기간에 관측된 누적 강수량을 비교하여 일단위로 가뭄지수를 간단히 산정할 수 있도록 개발되었다. 우리나라의 대표적인 가뭄기간 동안의 RADI의 시 공간적 변동성과 재현 주기를 살펴봄으로써 장 단기 가뭄의 감시에 대한 RADI의 적용성을 평가하였다. SPI의 경우, 장 단기 가뭄을 표현하기 위해서는 여러 가지 지속기간을 가지는 SPI를 사용해야 하지만, RADI는 하나의 지수로 단기 및 장기가뭄을 표현하고 모니터링 할 수 있다. RADI의 전국 평균값을 살펴본 결과, 우리나라에서 20년 주기로 가뭄이 발생하고 있다는 사실을 확인하였다. 또한 RADI의 발생확률 및 통계 분석을 통해 5단계의 가뭄 등급을 제안하였으며, 이는 가뭄 예보와 대응을 위한 기준으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

장기 가뭄기간의 유출량을 고려한 SWAT 보정 매개변수 추정 연구 (A Study on Parameter Estimation for SWAT Calibration Considering Streamflow of Long-term Drought Periods)

  • 김다래;김성준
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제59권2호
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied in many watersheds in South Korea. This study estimated parameters in SWAT for calibrating streamflow in long-term drought periods. Therefore, we focused on the continuous severe drought periods 2014~2015, and understand the model calibrated parameters. The SWAT was applied to a $366.5km^2$ Gongdo watershed by using 14 years (2002~2015) daily observed streamflow (Q) including two years extreme drought period of 2014~2015. The 9 parameters of CN2, CANMX, ESCO, SOL_K, SLSOIL, LAT_TIME, GW_DELAY, GWQMN, ALPHA_BF were selected for model calibration. The SWAT result by focusing on 5 normal years (2002~2006) calibration showed the 14 years average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for Q and 1/Q with 0.78 and 0.58 respectively. On the other hand, the 14 years average NSEs of Q and 1/Q by focusing on 2 drought years (2014~2015) calibration were 0.86 and 0.76 respectively. Thus, we could infer that the SWAT calibration trial by focusing on drought periods data can be a good approach to calibrate both high flow and low flow by controlling the 9 drought affected parameters.

공간연관성 지표를 이용한 낙동강 유역의 가뭄 핫스팟 지역 분석 (Analysis of Drought Hotspot Areas Using Local Indicators of Spatial Association in the Nakdong River Basin)

  • 손호준;변성호;박경운;김지은;김태웅
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제43권2호
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2023
  • 기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 위험도가 증가함에 따라, 전 세계적으로 가뭄의 피해 최소화를 위한 가뭄 대응 연구가 진행 중이다. 특히, 최근에는 가뭄의 지역적 패턴을 복합적으로 분석하기 위한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있지만, 여전히 대하천 유역에서 가뭄 위험지역을 정량적으로 파악하는 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 표준강수지수(SPI)와 수정표준강수지수(M_SPI)를 산정하고, RCP4.5 및 RCP8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 대한 공간자기상관분석을 수행하여 가뭄 핫스팟 지역을 분석했다. SPI는 연구 지역 내의 분석단위별로 매개변수를 추정하여 지수를 산정하지만, M_SPI는 연구 지역 전체에 대한 매개변수를 추정하여 지수를 산정하기 때문에, 대상 지역 내의 전체적인 관점에서 기상학적 가뭄 판단에 더 합리적이다. 연구 결과, M_SPI를 사용했을 경우, 장기가뭄이 단기가뭄보다 명확히 큰 가뭄 핫스팟 지역을 나타냈다. 또한 가뭄 핫스팟 지역은 시간이 지남에 따라 낙동강 유역의 중심에서 섬진강 유역의 방향으로 이동하는데, RCP 4.5 시나리오는 단기/장기 가뭄의 이동패턴이, RCP 8.5 시나리오에서는 장기가뭄의 이동패턴이 뚜렷하였다.

농업가뭄의 수문기상학적 특성 및 공간적 분포에 관한 연구 (Hydrometeorological Characteristics and The Spatial Distribution of Agricultural Droughts)

  • 장중석
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제61권2호
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2019
  • For 159 administrative areas, SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index), ARDI(Agricultural Reservoir Drought Index) and ARDIs(Agricultural Reservoir Drought Index Simulated) were developed and applied to analyze the characteristics of agricultural drought index and agricultural droughts. In order to identify hydrometeorological characteristics of agricultural droughts, SPI, ARDI and ARDIs were calculated nationwide, and the applicability was compared and examined. SPI and ARDI showed significant differences in time and depth of drought in both spatial and temporal. ARDI and ARDIs showed similar tendency of change, and ARDIs were considered to be more representative of agricultural drought characteristics. The results of this study suggest that agricultural drought is a problem to be solved in the medium and long term rather than short term due to various forms of development, complexity of development, and difficulty in forecasting. Therefore, it is concluded that a preliminary and systematic approach is needed in consideration of meteorological, hydrological and hydrometeorological characteristics rather than a fragmentary approach, and that an agricultural drought index is needed to quantitatively evaluate agricultural drought.

표준강수지수(SPI)를 이용한 가뭄에 대한 지표수와 지하수 반응 비교 (Comparison of Surface Water and Groundwater Responses to Drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI))

  • 구민호;김원겸;송성호
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • A correlation analysis was performed to investigate differences in the response of surface water and groundwater to drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Water level data of 20 agricultural reservoirs, 4 dams, 2 rivers, and 8 groundwater observation wells were used for the analysis. SPI was calculated using precipitation data measured at a nearby meteorological station. The water storage of reservoirs and dams decreased significantly as they responded sensitively to the drought from 2014 to 2016, showing high correlation with SPI of the relatively long accumulation period (AP). The responses of rivers varied greatly depending on the presence of an upstream dam. The water level in rivers connected to an upstream dam was predominantly influenced by the dam discharge, resulting in very weak correlation with SPI. On the contrary, the rivers without dam exhibited a sharp water level rise in response to precipitation, showing higher correlation with SPI of a short-term AP. Unlike dams and reservoirs, the responses of groundwater levels to precipitation were very short-lived, and they did not show high correlation with SPI during the long-term drought. In drought years, the rise of groundwater level in the rainy season was small, and the lowered water level in the dry season did not proceed any further and was maintained at almost the same as that of other normal years. Conclusively, it is confirmed that groundwater is likely to persist longer than surface water even in the long-term drought years.

장기예보자료를 활용한 장기 가뭄전망정보 산정 및 평가 (Estimation and assessment of long-term drought outlook information using the long-term forecasting data)

  • 소재민;오태석;배덕효
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제50권10호
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    • pp.691-701
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 장기예보자료 기반의 장기 가뭄전망정보를 산정하고, 2015년 가뭄사상을 대상으로 활용성을 평가하였다. 이를 위해 ASOS 59개 지점의 관측강수량, GloSea5의 미래예측 및 과거재현 자료를 활용하였으며, 다양한 지속기간(3, 6, 9, 12개월)에 대한 SPI를 산정하였다. 또한 예보선행시간(1~6개월)에 따른 SPI와 관측자료 기반의 SPI 간의 ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic)및 통계적 분석(상관계수, 평균제곱근 오차)을 수행하여 전망정보의 활용성을 평가하였다. ROC 분석결과, SPI(3)는 2개월, SPI(6)은 3개월, SPI(9)는 4개월, SPI(12)는 5개월까지 ROC score 약 0.70 이상으로 산정되었다. 예보선행시간별 상관계수 및 평균제곱근오차의 경우, 2개월 선행시간 SPI(3)은 0.60, 0.87, 4개월 선행시간 SPI(6)은 0.72, 0.95, 5개월 선행시간 SPI(9)는 0.75, 0.95, 6개월 선행시간 SPI(12)는 0.77, 0.89로 상관계수는 높게, 평균제곱근오차는 낮게 산정되어 활용성이 있는 것으로 판단된다.

유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 장·단기 유출모형의 매개변수 최적화 (Parameter Optimization of Long and Short Term Runoff Models Using Genetic Algorithm)

  • 김선주;지용근;김필식
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2004
  • In this study, parameters of long and short term runoff model were optimized using genetic algorithm as a basic research for integrated water management in a watershed. In case of Korea where drought and flood occurr frequently, the integrated water management is necessary to minimize possible damage of drought and flood. Modified TANK model was optimized as a long term runoff model and storage-function model was optimized as a short term runoff model. Besides distinguished parameters were applied to modified TANK model for supplementing defect that the model estimates less runoff in the storm period. As a result of application, simulated long and short term runoff results showed 7% and 5% improvement compared with before optimized on the average. In case of modified TANK model using distinguished parameters, the simulated runoff after optimized showed more interrelationship than before optimized. Therefore, modified TANK model can be applied for the long term water balance as an integrated water management in a watershed. In case of storage-function model, simulated runoff in the storm period showed high interrelationship with observed one. These optimized models can be applied for the runoff analysis of watershed.

농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용 (Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation)

  • 유승환;최진용;남원호;김태곤;고광돈
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제54권2호
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2012
  • Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

표준지하수위지수(SGI)를 이용한 농촌지역 지하수계의 가뭄 영향 평가 (Assessment of Drought Effects on Groundwater System in Rural Area using Standardized Groundwater Level Index(SGI))

  • 송성호
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2018
  • This study is aimed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of drought on groundwater system in rural areas. For this purpose, the standardized groundwater level index (SGI) was used for 68 groundwater monitoring wells. To determine accumulation period (AP) which represents the month with the highest correlation coefficient between SGI and SPI, correlation analysis between the two for 68 wells were peformed. The results indicated the AP values ranged in 1~3 months for most of the well, but it was 7~10 months in some wells. These results can be interpreted such that the total amount of groundwater will not decrease significantly in long-term drought situations unlikely the reservoirs with the high AP values. The nationwide maximum AP values were 4.1 and 4.0 in Chungbuk-do and Gyeongnam-do, while the minimum AP values were 1.8 and 2.0 in Gangwon-do and Chungnam-do, respectively. The maximum and minimum values of correlation coefficient were 0.623 and 0.459 in Gyeongnam-do and Chungnam-do/Chungbuk-do, respectively. Consequently, it could be concluded that the wells with low AP value tend to respond to short-term drought, but it has little effect on groundwater system when the long drought occurs.