• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제54권3호
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• pp.157-166
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• 2021

효율적인 댐 운영을 위해서는 높은 신뢰도를 기반으로 하는 유입량 예측이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 최근 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있는 데이터 기반의 예측 방법 중 하나인 딥러닝을 댐 유입량 예측에 활용하였다. 그 중 시계열 자료 예측에 높은 성능을 보이는 Sequence-to-Sequence 구조기반의 Long Short-Term Memory 딥러닝 모형(LSTM-s2s)을 이용하여 소양강 댐의 유입량을 예측하였다. 모형의 예측 성능을 평가하기 위해 상관계수, Nash-Sutcliffe 효율계수, 평균편차비율, 그리고 첨두값 오차를 이용하였다. 그 결과, LSTM-s2s 모형은 댐 유입량 예측에 대한 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 단일 유량 수문곡선 기반의 예측 성능에서도 높은 신뢰도를 보였다. 이를 통해 홍수기와 이수기에 수자원 관리를 위한 효율적인 댐 운영에 딥러닝 모형의 적용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.15-25
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• 2004

For the effective operation of irrigation reservoirs, a general and systematic policy is suggested to make balance of the conflicting purposes between water conservation and flood control. In this study, the flood effective analysis system was developed through the integration of long-term water budget analysis model, GIS-based HEC-HMS model and HEC-RAS model. The system structure consists of long-term water budget model using modified TANK theory, flood runoff and flood effects analysis model using HEC-GeoHMS, HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models. The flood effects analysis system simulated the flood runoff from the upstream, downstream flood and long-term runoff of the watershed using the observed data collected from 1998 to 2002 of Seongju dam. The simulated results were reasonably good compared with the observed data. The optimal management method of the reservoir during the whole season is suggested in this study, and the flood analysis system can be a useful tool to evaluate a reservoir operation quantitatively for the mitigation of flood damages of reservoir basin.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.57-62
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• 2002

This research is intended to integrate long-term operation rules and real time operation policy for conservation & flood control in a reservoir. The familiar Yield model has been modified and used to provide long-term rule curves. The model employs linear programming technique under given physical conditions, i.e., total capacity, dead storage, spillways, outlet capacity and their respective elevations to find required and desired minimum storage fur different demands. To investigate the system behavior resulting from the above-mentioned operating policy, i.e., the rule curves, the simulation model was used. Results of the simulation model show that the results of the optimization model are indeed valid. After confirmation of the above mentioned rule curves by the simulation models, gate operation procedure was merged with the long term operation rules to determine the optimum reservoir operating policy. In the gate operation procedure, operating policy in downstream flood plain, i.e., determination of damaging and non-damaging discharges in flood plain, peak floods, which could be routed by reservoir, are determined. Also outflow hydrograph and variations of water surface levels for two known hydrographs are determined. To examine efficiency of the above-mentioned models and their ability in determining the optimum operation policy, Esteghlal reservoir in Iran was analyzed as a case study. A numerical model fur the solution of two-dimensional dam break problems using fractional step method is developed on unstructured grid. The model is based on second-order Weighted Averaged Flux(WAF) scheme with HLLC approximate Riemann solver. To control the nonphysical oscillations associated with second-order accuracy, TVD scheme with SUPERBEE limiter is used. The developed model is verified by comparing the computational solutions with analytic solutions in idealized test cases. Very good agreements have been achieved in the verifications.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권10호
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• pp.921-934
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• 2014

본 연구의 목적은 댐 관리자가 쉽게 이해할 수 있고, 실제 댐 운영 업무에 적용하기 쉬운 저수지 운영률을 도출하는 것이다. 수위구간별 저수지 운영률은 현재의 저수지 수위가 위치하는 영역의 운영기준에 따라 저수지를 운영하는 간단한 방법이지만, 구체적인 수위 구간의 설정이 필요한 방법이다. 이에 연구에서는 수위 구간별 운영률을 포함한 저수지 운영모형을 개발하였고, 수위 구간별 운영률의 적절한 수위 구간을 결정하기 위해 집합체 혼합진화 알고리즘을 이용하였다. 개발된 저수지 운영모형을 물수급 불균형으로 인해 물공급에 어려움을 겪고 있는 필리핀의 Angat 댐에 대하여 적용하여 수위 구간별 운영률을 도출하고, 그에 따라 기록 유입량 자료를 이용하여 Angat 댐을 모의 운영하였다. 그 결과, 모의운영을 통해 결정된 계획공급량 대비 용수공급 부족량과 발전량은 실제 운영기록에 비해 각각 34.5%와 21.2% 개선되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 댐의 장기 운영률 유도에 활용되어질 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.1094-1100
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• 2006

In this study, the reservoir sediment reduction methods for long-term operation are proposed by the analysis of both sediment deposit characteristics and sediment reduction effect by each method. To that end, a flowchart for sediment analysis in reservoir is established and sediment deposit is simulated by SMS-SED2D model. The sediment reduction methods which are sediment passing (sluicing), flushing, trapping, bypassing and mechanical removal are used. From the simulation results, the effective method for sediment reduction is operation which is coupled by both sediment passing with sand gate and sediment trapping with debris dam. And If sediment flushing will be used once a year after 50 years, conservation storage can be secured until 100 years after dam construction.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권spc호
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• pp.69-79
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• 2019

우리나라는 60% 이상이 산간지형에 해당하며 수십 년 전부터 이러한 특성을 이용하여 수력발전소를 다수 건설하고 친환경적인 에너지를 생산해왔다. 수력발전은 급변하는 에너지 수급에 대처할 수 있고 낙차를 이용하여 친환경적으로 에너지를 생산한다는 장점이 있으나 댐 설립시 입지 조건에 의해 불가피하게 환경을 훼손해야 하는 경우가 많다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 기존 발전용댐들의 장기 운영계획을 수립하고자 월별 발전량을 최대화하는 최적 저수지 운영 모형을 개발하였다. 댐 운영 모형은 자원 최적화 분야에서 널리 이용되는 선형계획법을 기반으로 월단위로 1년 운영계획을 수립할 수 있는 형태로 구축하였다. 선형계획법은 목적함수와 제약조건 모두 선형식으로 이루어져야 하지만 발전량 산정식은 비선형식이기 때문에 Taylor Expansion 기법을 활용하여 선형화하였다. 개발된 모형을 검토하기 위해 한강수계에 위치하는 5개 발전용댐을 대상으로2009~2018년의 실적자료와 댐 운영 모형의 결과를 비교, 분석하였다. 결과적으로 발전용댐들의 총 최적 발전량은 총 실적 발전량보다 약 10~37% 정도 향상된 결과를 나타내었다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.685-691
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• 2004

Water quality forecasting with long term flow is important for management and operation of river environment. However, it is difficult to set up and operate a physical model for water quality forecasting due to large uncertainty in the data required for model setting. Therefore, relatively simpler stochastic approaches are adopted for this problem. In this study we try several multivariate time series models such as ARMAX models for the possible substitute for water quality forecasting. Those models are applied to the BOD and COD levels at Noryangin station, Han river, and also evaluated the effect of release from Paldang dam on them. Monthly BOD and COD data from 1985 to 1991 (7 years) are used for model building and another two year data for model testing. As a result of the study, the effect of improvement on water quality is much more effective combining with the water quality improvement of dam release than considering only increment of dam release in the downstream Han river.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.30-30
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• 2023

This study aims to establish the multi-reservoir operation system model in the Upper Mun River Basin which includes 5 main dams namely, Mun Bon (MB), Lamchae (LC), Lam Takhong (LTK), Lam Phraphoeng (LPP), and Lower Lam Chiengkrai (LLCK) Dams. The knowledge and AI technology were applied aiming to develop innovative prototype for SMART dam-reservoir operation in future. Two different sorts of reservoir operation system model namely, Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Constraint Programming (CP) as well as the development of rainfall and reservoir inflow prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) technique were made to help specify the right amount of daily reservoir releases for the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). The model could also provide the essential information particularly for the Office of National Water Resource of Thailand (ONWR) to determine the short-term and long-term water resource management plan and strengthen water security against flood and drought in this region. The simulated results of base case scenario for reservoir operation in the Upper Mun from 2008 to 2021 indicated that in the same circumstances, FL and CP models could specify the new release schemes to increase the reservoir water storages at the beginning of dry season of approximately 125.25 and 142.20 MCM per year. This means that supplying the agricultural water to farmers in dry season could be well managed. In other words, water scarcity problem could substantially be moderated at some extent in case of incapability to control the expansion of cultivated area size properly. Moreover, using AI technology to determine the new reservoir release schemes plays important role in reducing the actual volume of water shortfall in the basin although the drought situation at LTK and LLCK Dams were still existed in some periods of time. Meanwhile, considering the predicted inflow and hydrologic factors downstream of 5 main dams by FL model and minimizing the flood volume by CP model could ensure that flood risk was considerably minimized as a result of new release schemes.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제54권spc1호
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• pp.1095-1105
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• 2021

기후변화에 따른 집중호우, 태풍 등의 발생빈도의 증가로 인하여 댐 운영의 고도화가 요구되고 있다. 일반적으로 댐 운영의 경우 강우예측, 강우-유출, 홍수추적 등 다양한 수리수문학적 요소들을 반영하여 수행되나 기 계획된 특정 규칙에 기반한 댐 운영 모형의 경우, 때때로 개별 모듈들의 불확실성과 복합적인 인자들로 인하여 댐의 방류량을 능동적으로 제어하는데 제약이 있을 수 있다. 본 연구는 남강댐 직하류 홍수피해 예방을 위하여 댐의 방류량 결정 등 효율적인 댐 운영을 지원하기 위해 딥러닝 기반 LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) 모형을 구축하고, 선행시간별 댐직하류 수위예측 정확도를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. LSTM 모형의 입력자료는 댐 운영에 사용되는 기초자료 및 하류 장대동 수위관측소의 수위 자료를 시 단위로 2009년부터 2021년 7월까지 수집하였다. 2009년부터 2018년 자료는 모형의 학습과 검증 및 2019년부터 2021년 7월 자료는 선행시간을 7개(1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 9 h, 12 h, 18 h, 24 h)로 구분하여 관측 수위와 예측 수위를 비교·분석하였다. 그 결과, 선행시간 1시간의 예측결과는 평균적으로 MAE가 0.01 m, RMSE가 0.015 m, NSE가 0.99 로 관측 수위에 매우 근접한 예측 결과를 나타내었다. 또한, 선행시간이 길어질수록 예측 정확도는 근소하게 감소하였지만, 관측 수위의 시간적 패턴을 유사하게 안정적으로 예측하는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 수리수문학적 비선형의 복잡한 자료간의 특징을 자동으로 추출하여 예측 자료를 생산하는 LSTM 모형은 댐 방류량 의사결정에 있어 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.421-434
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• 2018

Decision-makers have different and sometimes conflicting goals with utilities in operating dam reservoirs. As repeated interactions exist between decision-makers in the long-term, and the utility of each decision-making organization is affected not only by its selected strategy, but also by other rivals' strategies; selecting and prioritizing optimum strategies from a decision maker's point of view are of great importance while interacting with others. In this paper, a model based on a fuzzy set theory, for determining the priority of decision-makers' strategies in optimal qualitative-quantitative operation management of dam reservoir is presented. The fuzzy priority matrix is developed via defining membership functions of a fuzzy set for each decision maker's strategies, so that all uncertainties are taken into account. This matrix includes priorities assigned to possible combination for other decision makers' strategies in bargaining with each player's viewpoint. Here, the 15-Khordad Dam located in the central part of Iran, suffering from low water quality, was studied in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. Then, the range of quality of water withdrawal agreed by all decision-makers was determined using the prioritization matrix based on fuzzy logic. The results showed that the model proposed in the study had high effectiveness model.