• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Time Series

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Changes Detection of Ice Dimension in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Sentinel-1 Image Classification (Sentinel-1 위성의 영상 분류 기법을 이용한 백두산 천지의 얼음 면적 변화 탐지)

  • Park, Sungjae;Eom, Jinah;Ko, Bokyun;Park, Jeong-Won;Lee, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2020
  • Cheonji, the largest caldera lake in Asia, is located at the summit of Baekdu Mountain. Cheonji is covered with snow and ice for about six months of the year due to its high altitude and its surrounding environment. Since most of the sources of water are from groundwater, the water temperature is closely related to the volcanic activity. However, in the 2000s, many volcanic activities have been monitored on the mountain. In this study, we analyzed the dimension of ice produced during winter in Baekdu Mountain using Sentinel-1 satellite image data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA). In order to calculate the dimension of ice from the backscatter image of the Sentinel-1 satellite, 20 Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) layers were generated from two polarization images using texture analysis. The method used in calculating the area was utilized with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the GLCM layer which is to calculate the dimension of ice in the image. Also, the calculated area was correlated with temperature data obtained from Samjiyeon weather station. This study could be used as a basis for suggesting an alternative to the new method of calculating the area of ice before using a long-term time series analysis on a full scale.

The Price Discovery ana Volatility Spillover of Won/Dollar Futures (통화선물의 가격예시 기능과 변동성 전이효과)

  • Kim, Seok-Chin;Do, Young-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2006
  • This study examines whether won/dollar futures have price discovery function and volatility spillover effect or not, using intraday won/dollar futures prices, volumes, and spot rates for the interval from March 2, 2005 through May 30, 2005. Futures prices and spot rates are non-stationary, but there is the cointegration relationship between two time series. Futures returns, spot returns, and volumes are stationary. Asymmetric effects on volatility in futures returns and spot returns does not exist. Analytical results of mean equations of the BGARCH-EC (bivariate GARCH-error correction) model show that the increase of futures returns raise spot returns after 5 minutes, which implies that futures returns lead spot returns and won/dollar futures have price discovery function. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two returns could help forecast spot returns. Analytical results of variance equations indicate that short-run innovations in the futures market positively affect the conditional variances of spot returns, that is, there is the volatility spillover effect in the won/dollar futures market. A dummy variable of volumes does not have an effect on two returns but influences significantly on two conditional variances.

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Minimum 2-Year Follow-Up Result of Degenerative Spinal Stenosis Treated with Interspinous U ($Coflex^{TM}$)

  • Park, Seong-Cheol;Yoon, Sang-Hoon;Hong, Yong-Pyo;Kim, Ki-Jeong;Chung, Sang-Ki;Kim, Hyun-Jib
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.292-299
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    • 2009
  • Objective : Clinical and radiological results of posterior dynamic stabilization using interspinous U (ISU, $Coflex^{TM}$, Paradigm Spine $Inc.^{(R)}$, NY, USA) were analyzed in comparison with posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) in degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). Methods : A retrospective study was conducted for a consecutive series of 61 patients with degenerative LSS between May 2003 and December 2005. We included only the patients completed minimum 24 months follow up evaluation. Among them, 30 patients were treated with implantation of ISU after decompressive laminectomy (Group ISU) and 31 patients were treated with wide decompressive laminectomy and posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF; Group PLIF). We evaluated visual analogue scale (VAS) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) for clinical outcomes (VAS, ODI), disc height ratio disc height (DH), disc height/vertebral body length ${\times}100$), static vertebral slip (VS) and depth of maximal radiolucent gap between ISU and spinous process) in preoperative, immediate postoperative and last follow up. Results : The mean age of group ISU ($66.2{\pm}6.7$ years) was 6.2 years older than the mean age of group PLIF ($60.4{\pm}8.1$ years; p=0.003). In both groups, clinical measures improved significantly than preoperative values (p<0.001). Operation time and blood loss was significantly shorter and lower in group ISU than group PLIF (p<0.001). In group ISU, the DH increased transiently in immediate postoperative period ($15.7{\pm}4.5%{\rightarrow}18.6{\pm}5.9%$), however decreased significantly in last follow up ($13.8{\pm}6.6%$, p=0.027). Vertebral slip (VS) of spondylolisthesis in group ISU increased during postoperative follow-up ($2.3{\pm}3.3{\rightarrow}8.7{\pm}6.2$, p=0.040). Meanwhile, the postoperatively improved DH and VS was maintained in group PLIF in last follow up. Conclusion : According to our result, implantation of ISU after decompressive laminectomy in degenerative LSS is less invasive and provides similar clinical outcome in comparison with the instrumented fusion. However, the device has only transient effect on the postoperative restoration of disc height and reduction of slip in spondylolisthesis. Therefore, in the biomechanical standpoint, it is hard to expect that use of Interspinous U in decompressive laminectomy for degenerative LSS had long term beneficial effect.

Optimization of PRISM parameters using the SCEM-UA algorithm for gridded daily time series precipitation (시계열 강수량 공간화를 위한 SCEM-UA 기반의 PRISM 매개변수 최적화)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Park, Moonhyung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.903-915
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    • 2020
  • Long-term high-resolution hydro-meteorological data has been recognized as an essential element in establishing the water resources plan. The increasing demand for spatial precipitation in various areas such as climate, hydrology, geography, ecology, and environment is apparent. However, potential limitations of the existing area-weighted and numerical interpolation methods for interpolating precipitation in high altitude areas remains less explored. The proposed PRISM (Precipitation-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) model can produce gridded precipitation that can adequately consider topographic characteristics (e.g., slope and altitude), which are not substantially included in the existing interpolation techniques. In this study, the PRISM model was optimized with SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-University of Arizona) to produce daily gridded precipitation. As a result, the minimum impact radius was calculated 9.10 km and the maximum 34.99 km. The altitude of coastal weighted was 681.03 m, the minimum and maximum distances from coastal were 9.85 km and 38.05 km. The distance weighting factor was calculated to be about 0.87, confirming that the PRISM result was very sensitive to distance. The results showed that the proposed PRISM model could reproduce the observed statistical properties reasonably well.

Fundamental Properties of Magnesia-Prosphate Composite Considering Mix Conditions and Curing Temperature (배합조건 및 양생온도에 따른 마그네시아 인산염 복합체의 기초물성 평가)

  • Cho, Hyun Woo;Kang, Su Tae;Shin, Hyun Seop;Lee, Jang Hwa
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2012
  • With the advantage of a rapid exothermic reaction property, jet set concrete may be used as a cold weather concrete because it can reach the required strength before being damaged by cold weathers. And it can be hardened more quickly if the field temperature is properly compensated by heating. Because ordinary concrete cannot be hardened well under sub-zero temperatures, anti-freeze agents are typically added to prevent the frost damage and to ensure the proper hardening of concrete. While the addition of a large amount of anti-freeze agent is effective to prevent concrete from freezing and accelerates cement hydration resulting in shortening the setting time and enhancing the initial strength, it induces problems in long-term strength growth. Also, it is not economically feasible because most anti-freeze agents are mainly composed of chlorides. Recent studies reported that magnesia-phosphate composites can be hardened very quickly and hydrated even in low temperatures, which can be used as an alternative of cold weather concrete for cold weathers and very cold places. As a preliminary study, to obtain the material properties, mortar specimens with different mixture proportions of magnesia-phosphate composites were manufactured and series of experiments were conducted varying the curing temperature. From the experimental results, an appropriate mixture design for cold weathers and very cold places is suggested.

Predicting Raw Material Price Fluctuation Using Signal Approach: Application to Non-ferrous Metals (신호접근법을 이용한 비철금속 상품가격변동 예측모형 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Whan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2009
  • Recent raw material prices fluctuation has been unexpectedly high and that made Korean economic activities to be depressed. Because most raw material supply in Korea depends upon oversea imports, unexpected raw material price fluctuation affects Korean industrial economies through macroeconomic variables. So Korean government enforces some political measures such as demand management and the supply-security assurance as long-range policies, and reservation and general early warning system as short-range policies. In short-range policies, it is necessary to be expected short term fluctuation. Up to recently, there have been many researches and most of those researches use parametric methods or time series analyses. Because those methods and analyses often generate inadequate relations among variables, it is possible that some consistent variables are left out or the results are misunderstood. This study, therefore, is aim to mitigate those methodological problems and find the relatively appropriate model for economic explanation. So that, in this paper, by using non-parametric signal approach method mitigating some shortages of previous researches and forecasting properly short-range prices fluctuation of non-ferrous materials are presented empirically.

Spatial-temporal Variations of Nitrate Levels in Groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea: Evaluation of Long-term (1993-2015) Monitoring Data (제주도 지하수질산염 농도의 시·공간적변화 특성: 장기(1993-2015) 모니터링 자료의 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Oh, Junseop;Do, Hyun-Kwon;Lee, Kyung-Jin;Hyun, Ik-Hyun;Oh, Sang-Sil;Kam, Sang-Kyu;Yun, Seong-Taek
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2018
  • The spatio-temporal variations of nitrate concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island were evaluated by an analysis of time series groundwater quality data (N = 21,568) that were collected from regional groundwater monitoring (number of wells = 4,835) for up to 20 years between 1993 and 2015. The median concentration of $NO_3-N$ is 2.5 mg/L, which is slightly higher than those reported from regional surveys in other countries. Nitrate concentrations of groundwater in wells tend to significantly vary according to different water usage (of the well), administrative districts, and topographic elevations: nitrate level is higher in low-lying agricultural and residential areas than those in high mountainous areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope analysis show that nitrate concentration in mid-mountainous areas tends to increase, possibly due to the expansion of agricultural areas toward highland. On the other hand, nitrate concentrations in the Specially Designated Groundwater Quality Protection Zones show the temporally decreasing trend, which implies the efficiency of groundwater management actions in Jeju. Proper measures for sustainable groundwater quality management are suggested in this study.

A Study on Development of Power Analysing Device for PV Module (태양전지 모듈의 발전량 분석 장치 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Chae-Joo;Kwak, Seung-Hun;Jang, Yeong-Hak;Kim, Tae-Gon;Kim, Eui-Sun;Kim, Tae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the relative performance of modules with changed characteristics due to long term exposure to the outdoor environment, with a specially made test device for simultaneous measurement of real time power output from the photovoltaic array, taking into account the inclined panel, direct irradiation, power being generated, temperature as well as the optimal analysis timing. In terminology description, M is an abbreviation of module and Group A, Group B are 10 modules series connection (1~10 of M), (11~20 of M) for each of them respectively. The overall mean voltage difference of M-18 with the lowest power output and M-14 with the highest output is-2.13V and it was identifiable that voltage difference was more concentrated to Group B. In addition, in case of M-2 and M-7, M-8, when compared with M-14, the overall mean voltage difference was -0.92V, -1.56 and -0.91V respectively showing the more concentration to Group A. When the temperature of module went up by $1^{\circ}C$, the mean voltage was reduced by 0.35V. For current, Group A was lower than Group B by-0.022A and the ratio of each group was 49.68% and 50.32% respectively, presumably the module with deteriorated properties were more concentrated to Group A relatively. From the comparison of relations with the comprehensive accumulation, M-2, M-7, M-8, M-16 and M-18 were those with deterioration of performance to the worst, thereby requiring precision examination. In comparative efficiency, M-14 was the most excellent one as 12.19% while M-18 as 10.53% was identified that its efficiency was comparatively rapidly reduced.

INNOVATIVE CONCEPT FOR AN ULTRA-SMALL NUCLEAR THERMAL ROCKET UTILIZING A NEW MODERATED REACTOR

  • NAM, SEUNG HYUN;VENNERI, PAOLO;KIM, YONGHEE;LEE, JEONG IK;CHANG, SOON HEUNG;JEONG, YONG HOON
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.678-699
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    • 2015
  • Although the harsh space environment imposes many severe challenges to space pioneers, space exploration is a realistic and profitable goal for long-term humanity survival. One of the viable and promising options to overcome the harsh environment of space is nuclear propulsion. Particularly, the Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) is a leading candidate for nearterm human missions to Mars and beyond due to its relatively high thrust and efficiency. Traditional NTR designs use typically high power reactors with fast or epithermal neutron spectrums to simplify core design and to maximize thrust. In parallel there are a series of new NTR designs with lower thrust and higher efficiency, designed to enhance mission versatility and safety through the use of redundant engines (when used in a clustered engine arrangement) for future commercialization. This paper proposes a new NTR design of the second design philosophy, Korea Advanced NUclear Thermal Engine Rocket (KANUTER), for future space applications. The KANUTER consists of an Extremely High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (EHTGR) utilizing hydrogen propellant, a propulsion system, and an optional electricity generation system to provide propulsion as well as electricity generation. The innovatively small engine has the characteristics of high efficiency, being compact and lightweight, and bimodal capability. The notable characteristics result from the moderated EHTGR design, uniquely utilizing the integrated fuel element with an ultra heat-resistant carbide fuel, an efficient metal hydride moderator, protectively cooling channels and an individual pressure tube in an all-in-one package. The EHTGR can be bimodally operated in a propulsion mode of $100MW_{th}$ and an electricity generation mode of $100MW_{th}$, equipped with a dynamic energy conversion system. To investigate the design features of the new reactor and to estimate referential engine performance, a preliminary design study in terms of neutronics and thermohydraulics was carried out. The result indicates that the innovative design has great potential for high propellant efficiency and thrust-to-weight of engine ratio, compared with the existing NTR designs. However, the build-up of fission products in fuel has a significant impact on the bimodal operation of the moderated reactor such as xenon-induced dead time. This issue can be overcome by building in excess reactivity and control margin for the reactor design.

The Effect of Drinking Water Fluoride on the Fine Structure of the Ameloblast in the Fetal Rat (음용수 불소가 흰쥐태아 법랑모세포의 미세구조에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Do-Seon;Jeong, Moon-Jin;Yoe, Sung-Moon
    • Applied Microscopy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.189-193
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    • 1999
  • The response of ameloblast to long term (3 weeks) exposure to fluoride was examined in continuously erupting mandibular incisors of pregnancy rats as compared to control rats receiving a similar diet (Teklad L-356) but no sodium fluoride in there drinking water. Rats were started on water containing 0 ppm, 100 ppm, 200 ppm, and 300 ppm NaF at the beginning of pregnancy. To examine on the ultrastructural changes of the ameloblast, electron microscopy was used. The results indicated that rat incisors expressed two major changes in normal amelogenesis that could be attributed to chronic fluoride treatment. The fluoride produces marked alteration in the fine structure of ameloblast from teeth of young rats, such as large confluent distensions of the endoplasmic reticulum and swelling of isolated mitochondria, in particular on the morphology of the rough-surfaced endoplasmic reticulum. A graded series of alterations to these organelles were produced, and the severity of the changes would seem to be dependent on dose and time. This experimental data suggested that exposure prolonged of animal to high level of fluoride appears to induce morphological changes in the normal appositional growth and initial mineralization of enamel created during amelogenesis.

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