• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Prediction

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The Analysis of Future Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Water Quality Using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 토지이용변화가 수문 - 수질에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Yoon;Lee, Mi Seon;Lee, Yong Jun;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2008
  • This study is to assess the impact of future land use change on hydrology and water quality in Gyungan-cheon watershed ($255.44km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Using the 5 past Landsat TM (1987, 1991, 1996, 2004) and $ETM^+$ (2001) satellite images, time series of land use map were prepared, and the future land uses (2030, 2060, 2090) were predicted using CA-Markov technique. The 4 years streamflow and water quality data (SS, T-N, T-P) and DEM (Digital Elevation Model), stream network, and soil information (1:25,000) were prepared. The model was calibrated for 2 years (1999 and 2000), and verified for 2 years (2001 and 2002) with averaged Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.59 for streamflow and determination coefficient of 0.88, 0.72, 0.68 for Sediment, T-N (Total Nitrogen), T-P (Total Phosphorous) respectively. The 2030, 2060 and 2090 future prediction based on 2004 values showed that the total runoff increased 1.4%, 2.0% and 2.7% for 0.6, 0.8 and 1.1 increase of watershed averaged CN value. For the future Sediment, T-N and T-P based on 2004 values, 51.4%, 5.0% and 11.7% increase in 2030, 70.5%, 8.5% and 16.7% increase in 2060, and 74.9%, 10.9% and 19.9% increase in 2090.

A study on the precise prediction of tides using long-term tidal observation data at the Nakdong River Estuary (낙동강 하구 장기조석관측 자료를 이용한 조위의 정밀예측 연구)

  • Park, Byeong Woo;Kang, Tae Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.269-269
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    • 2022
  • 최근 낙동강 하구 기수생태 복원에 있어서 중요한 요소 중 하나는 하굿둑 외해측의 보다 높은 정도를 가지는 조석예보치 산정과 이를 통해 하굿둑 방류량과 해수 유입량을 추정하여 주변 환경 등을 예측할 수 있다. 기수생태 복원이 본격으로 논의가 진행 전인 2016년까지는 하구에서 수km 떨어진 기존 조위관측소(부산 및 가덕도)를 활용하여 하류수위를 예측하여 왔지만 조위 높이와 위상 차이로 인하여 활용이 용이하지 않다. 따라서, 낙동강 하굿둑 인접 외해역에서 조석 영향을 받는 수위관측치를 이용하여 조석조화분해를 통해 조위 예측을 보다 정밀하게 산정하는 것이 필요하다. 연구방법으로는 낙동강 하굿둑 외해역에서 관측된 2016년, 2017년 각각 1년간 10분간격으로 관측자료의 저장상태 및 이상자료 유무를 확인하고, 조석조화분해 프로그램인 TASK2000(Tidal Analysis Software Kit) Package를 이용하여 2016년, 2017년 낙동강 하굿둑 인접 외해역에서 관측된 조위자료를 각각 조석조화분해한 결과로 관측조위와 예측조위 비교하였고, 관측조위와 예측조위를 뺀 성분인 조석잔차성분을 구했다. 조화분해결과, 낙동강 하굿둑 외해역은 일반적인 연안역의 조석과는 달리 하천수의 유출, 배수갑문의 조작, 연안사주지형에 의한 조석변형 등 매우 복잡하고 불규칙적인 특성인 기상성분(기압, 바람 등)에 의한 교란을 고려한다면 예측정확도가 상당부분 확보되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 장주기 성분과 비선형 조석성분의 크기를 비교해 볼 때 거의 편차가 없이 나타나 조석조화상수를 이용한 예보 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 조위검증은 2016년의 1년치의 조석자료를 이용하여 조화분해된 조화상수 63개를 이용하여 2017년의 조석 예보치를 산정하였으며, 이를 2017년의 낙동강 하굿둑 외해역의 조석관측치와 조석예측치를 1대 1 비교하는 방식으로 검증하였고, 이들의 상관관계를 파악하기 위하여 두 성분에 대하여 Regression Analysis를 수행하여 예측조위와 관측조위 사이에는 Pre=0.9535×Obs+0.396과 같은 관계식이 성립하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 두 성분간의 상관도는 0.9535로 높게 나타났다. 조위예측 프로그램인 TASK2000 Package 중 MARIE를 이용한 조위예측 프로그램의 신뢰도가 매우 높은 것으로 판단되고, 해당년도 조위예측 시에는 가능하면 직전년도의 1년 조석관측자료를 조화분해하고 얻어진 조화상수를 이용하여 조위예측을 실시하면 보다 정확한 자료를 얻을 수 있다.

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A global-scale assessment of agricultural droughts and their relation to global crop prices (전 지구 농업가뭄 발생특성 및 곡물가격과의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Daeha;Lee, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.883-893
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    • 2023
  • While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

Blood-Blister Aneurysms of the Internal Carotid Artery in Tibetan and Han Populations : A Retrospective Observational Study

  • Bowen Huang;Yanming Ren;Hao Liu;Anqi Xiao;Lunxin Liu;Hong Sun;Yi Liu;Hao Li;Lu Ma;Chang-Wei Zhang;Chao-Hua Wang;Min He;Yuekang Zhang;Chao You;Jin Li
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.67 no.3
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2024
  • Objective : Blood-blister aneurysms (BBAs) of the internal carotid artery (ICA) are challenging lesions with high morbidity and mortality rates. Although research on BBAs is well documented in different populations, the study of BBAs in the Tibetan population is extremely rare. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of BBAs and analyze the treatment modalities and long-term outcomes in the Tibetan population in comparison with the Han population. Methods : The characteristics of patients with BBAs of the ICA from January 2009 to January 2021 at our institution were reviewed. The features of aneurysms, treatment modalities, complications, and follow-up outcomes were retrospectively analyzed. Results : A total of 130 patients (41 Tibetan and 89 Han patients) with BBAs of the ICA who underwent treatment were enrolled. Compared with the Han group, the Tibetan group significantly demonstrated a high ratio of BBAs among ICAs (8.6%, 41/477 vs. 1.6%, 89/5563; p<0.05), a high ratio of vasospasm (34.1%, 14/41 vs. 6.7%, 6/89; p=0.001), a high risk of ischemic events (43.9%, 18/41 vs. 22.5%, 20/89; p<0.05), and a low ratio of good outcomes (modified Rankin scale, 0-2) at the 1-year follow-up (51.2%, 21/41 vs. 74.2%, 66/89; p<0.05). The multivariate regression model showed that ischemic events significantly contributed to the prediction of outcomes at 1 year. Further analysis revealed that microsurgery and vasospasm were associated with ischemic events. Conclusion : In comparison with Han patients, the Tibetan population had a high ratio of BBA occurrence, a high incidence of ischemic events, and a high ratio of poor outcomes. The endovascular approach showed more benefits in BBA patients.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Prediction of field failure rate using data mining in the Automotive semiconductor (데이터 마이닝 기법을 이용한 차량용 반도체의 불량률 예측 연구)

  • Yun, Gyungsik;Jung, Hee-Won;Park, Seungbum
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.37-68
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    • 2018
  • Since the 20th century, automobiles, which are the most common means of transportation, have been evolving as the use of electronic control devices and automotive semiconductors increases dramatically. Automotive semiconductors are a key component in automotive electronic control devices and are used to provide stability, efficiency of fuel use, and stability of operation to consumers. For example, automotive semiconductors include engines control, technologies for managing electric motors, transmission control units, hybrid vehicle control, start/stop systems, electronic motor control, automotive radar and LIDAR, smart head lamps, head-up displays, lane keeping systems. As such, semiconductors are being applied to almost all electronic control devices that make up an automobile, and they are creating more effects than simply combining mechanical devices. Since automotive semiconductors have a high data rate basically, a microprocessor unit is being used instead of a micro control unit. For example, semiconductors based on ARM processors are being used in telematics, audio/video multi-medias and navigation. Automotive semiconductors require characteristics such as high reliability, durability and long-term supply, considering the period of use of the automobile for more than 10 years. The reliability of automotive semiconductors is directly linked to the safety of automobiles. The semiconductor industry uses JEDEC and AEC standards to evaluate the reliability of automotive semiconductors. In addition, the life expectancy of the product is estimated at the early stage of development and at the early stage of mass production by using the reliability test method and results that are presented as standard in the automobile industry. However, there are limitations in predicting the failure rate caused by various parameters such as customer's various conditions of use and usage time. To overcome these limitations, much research has been done in academia and industry. Among them, researches using data mining techniques have been carried out in many semiconductor fields, but application and research on automotive semiconductors have not yet been studied. In this regard, this study investigates the relationship between data generated during semiconductor assembly and package test process by using data mining technique, and uses data mining technique suitable for predicting potential failure rate using customer bad data.

A Study on Change in Cement Mortar Characteristics under Carbonation Based on Tests for Hydration and Porosity (수화물 및 공극률 관측 실험을 통한 시멘트모르타르의 탄산화 특성 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Song, Ha-Won;Park, Sang-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 2007
  • Due to the increasing significance of durability, much researches on carbonation, one of the major deterioration phenomena are carried out. However, conventional researches based on fully hardened concrete are focused on prediction of carbonation depth and they sometimes cause errors. In contrast with steel members, behaviors in early-aged concrete such as porosity and hydrates (calcium hydroxide) are very important and may be changed under carbonation process. Because transportation of deteriorating factors is mainly dependent on porosity and saturation, it is desirable to consider these changes in behaviors in early-aged concrete under carbonation for reasonable analysis of durability in long term exposure or combined deterioration. As for porosity, unless the decrease in $CO_2$ diffusion due to change in porosity is considered, the results from the prediction is overestimated. The carbonation depth and characteristics of pore water are mainly determined by amount of calcium hydroxide, and bound chloride content in carbonated concrete is also affected. So Analysis based on test for hydration and porosity is recently carried out for evaluation of carbonation characteristics. In this study, changes in porosity and hydrate $(Ca(OH)_2)$ under carbonation process are performed through the tests. Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry (MIP) for changed porosity, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) for amount of $(Ca(OH)_2)$ are carried out respectively and analysis technique for porosity and hydrates under carbonation is developed utilizing modeling for behavior in early-aged concrete such as multi component hydration heat model (MCHHM) and micro pore structure formation model (MPSFM). The results from developed technique is in reasonable agreement with experimental data, respectively and they are evaluated to be used for analysis of chloride behavior in carbonated concrete.

The Prediction of Shelf-life of Pickle Processed from Maengjong bambo (맹종죽순 장아찌의 유통기한 설정)

  • Kim, Dong-Chung;Cho, Eun-Hye;In, Man-Jin;Oh, Chul-Hwan;Hong, Ki-Woon;Kwon, Sang-Chul;Chae, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2641-2647
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    • 2012
  • Quality and sensory characteristics such as microbial count, pH, acidity, flavor, taste, color and overall acceptance of bamboo shoot pickle cured with red pepper paste and bamboo shoot pickle cured with soy sauce paste made of Maengjong bamboo shoots were investigated during a long-term storage at different temperature (at $25^{\circ}C$, $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$). Microbial contamination was not observed, and water content did not showed significant change in all samples of both pickles during the whole storage period of 30 days, regardless of storage temperature. At $25^{\circ}C$, all sensory characteristics of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle did not show a significant change for 30 d. However, at $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$, the flavor, taste and color of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle did not change remarkably, but the overall acceptance significantly changed from the beginning of storage. Bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle did not give a significant change in flavor, taste and overall acceptance at $25^{\circ}C$, $35^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$. However a remarkable change in color started to be shown at 25 d in case of storage at $45^{\circ}C$. Overall acceptance and color were selected as indicating parameters for the shelf-life estimation of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle and bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle, respectively. Based on room temperature storage and delivery at $20^{\circ}C$, the shelf-life of bamboo shoot-red pepper paste pickle and bamboo shoot-soy sauce pickle were determined as 308 d (about 10 month) and 447 d (about 14 month), respectively.

Prediction of Concrete Temperature and Its Effects on Continuously Reinforcement Concrete Pavement Behavior at Early Ages (초기재령에서 연속철근콘크리트포장 거동에 콘크리트 온도의 영향과 예측)

  • Kim Dong-Ho;Choi Seong-Cheol;Won Moon-Cheol
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2 s.28
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • Transverse cracks in continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP) occur at early ages due to temperature and moisture variations. The width and spacing of transverse cracks have a significant effect on pavement performance such as load transfer efficiency and punchout development. Also, crack widths in CRCP depend on 'zero-stress temperature,' which is defined as a temperature where initial concrete stresses become zero, as well as drying shrinkage of concrete. For good long-term performance of CRCP, transverse cracks need to be kept tight. To keep the crack widths tight throughout the pavement life, zero-stress temperature must be as low as practically possible. Thus, temperature control at early ages is a key component In ensuring good CRCP performance. In this study, concrete temperatures were predicted using PavePro, a concrete temperature prediction program, for a CRCP construction project, and those values were compared with actual measured temperatures obtained from field testing. The cracks were also surveyed for 12 days after concrete placement. Findings from this study can be summarized as follows. First, the actual maximum temperatures are greater than the predicted maximum temperature in the ranges of 0.2 to 4.5$^{\circ}C$. For accurate temperature predictions, hydration properties of cementitious materials such as activation energy and adiabatic constants, should be evaluated and accurate values be obtained for use as input values. Second, within 24 hours of concrete placement, temperatures of concrete placed in the morning are higher than those placed in the afternoon, and the maximum concrete temperature occurred in the concrete placed at noon. Finally, from the 12 days of condition survey, it was noted that the rate of crack occurrence in the morning placed section was 25 percent greater than that in the afternoon placed section. Based on these findings, it is concluded that maximum concrete temperature has a significant effect on crack development, and boner concrete temperature control is needed to ensure adequate CRCP performance.

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Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.