• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-Term Forecasting

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Improvement of precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF data using multi-layer perceptron technique (다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용한 ECMWF 예측자료의 강수예측 정확도 향상)

  • Lee, Seungsoo;Kim, Gayoung;Yoon, Soonjo;An, Hyunuk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.475-482
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    • 2019
  • Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction information which have 2 weeks to 2 months lead time are expected to be used through many parts of industry fields, but utilizability is not reached to expectation because of lower predictability than weather forecast and mid- /long-term forecast. In this study, we used multi-layer perceptron (MLP) which is one of machine learning technique that was built for regression training in order to improve predictability of S2S precipitation data at South Korea through post-processing. Hindcast information of ECMWF was used for MLP training and the original data were compared with trained outputs based on dichotomous forecast technique. As a result, Bias score, accuracy, and Critical Success Index (CSI) of trained output were improved on average by 59.7%, 124.3% and 88.5%, respectively. Probability of detection (POD) score was decreased on average by 9.5% and the reason was analyzed that ECMWF's model excessively predicted precipitation days. In this study, we confirmed that predictability of ECMWF's S2S information can be improved by post-processing using MLP even the predictability of original data was low. The results of this study can be used to increase the capability of S2S information in water resource and agricultural fields.

Synoptic Change Characteristics of the East Asia Climate Appeared in Seoul Rainfall and Climatic Index Data (서울지점 강우자료와 기후지표자료에 나타난 동아시아 기후의 종관적 변화특성)

  • Hwang, Seok Hwan;Kim, Joong Hoon;Yoo, Chulsang;Chung, Gunhui
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5B
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    • pp.409-417
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    • 2009
  • In this study it was assessed the accuracy of the Chukwooki rainfall data in Seoul by comparing with tree-ring width index data, sunspot numbers, southern oscillation index (SOI) and global temperature anomaly. And it was investigated the correlations of climatic change and change characteristics in past north-east asia by comparisons of tree-ring width index data in near Korea. The results of this study shows that Chukwooki rainfall data has the strong reliance since the trends and depths of change are very well matched with other comparative data. And with the results by compared with tree-ring width index data in six sites of near Korea, climates of north-east asia are changed with strong correlations as being temporal and spatial and longterm periodic possibility of reproducing are exist on those changes. However characteristics of climate change post 1960 A.D. are investigated as represented differently to past although statistical moving characteristics or changing criterion are within the limitations of reproducing phase in the past since they represent the different trends and irregularity and their frequencies are increase. The results of this study are widely used on long-term forecasting for climate change in north-east asia.

Rainfall Forecasting Using Satellite Information and Integrated Flood Runoff and Inundation Analysis (I): Theory and Development of Model (위성정보에 의한 강우예측과 홍수유출 및 범람 연계 해석 (I): 이론 및 모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Hyuk Joon;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Gwangseob
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6B
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    • pp.597-603
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the short term rainfall forecast skill using neural network model that can deal with the non-linear behavior between satellite data and ground observation, and minimize the flood damage. To overcome the geographical limitation of Korean peninsula and get the long forecast lead time of 3 to 6 hour, the developed rainfall forecast model took satellite imageries and wide range AWS data. The architecture of neural network model is a multi-layer neural network which consists of one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer. Neural network is trained using a momentum back propagation algorithm. Flood was estimated using rainfall forecasts. We developed a dynamic flood inundation model which is associated with 1-dimensional flood routing model. Therefore the model can forecast flood aspect in a protected lowland by levee failure of river. In the case of multiple levee breaks at main stream and tributaries, the developed flood inundation model can estimate flood level in a river and inundation level and area in a protected lowland simultaneously.

Analysis of Long-term Changes for Fisheries Production and Marine-Ecosystem Index in Jinhae Bay Considering Climate Change (진해만의 수산생산량과 해양생태계 지표의 장기 변동 및 기후변화 요인 분석)

  • Woo-Hee Cho;Kyunghoi Kim;In-Cheol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2024
  • As an important fishing ground in the southern coast of Korea, Jinhae Bay is characterized by a high level of fisheries production. However, its marine-ecosystem has shifted owing to environmental changes such as industrial development and high water temperatures over the decades. This study analyzes the fisheries production, discards, mean trophic level, and fishing-in-balance index using annual fishing data from five regions surrounding Jinhae Bay for the period 2005-2022, as well as using additional forecasting trends by 2027 using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Intergrated Moving Average). The results shows, that the production in Goseong will decrease continuously by 2027, as compared with that in other areas. Additionally, byproduct management is considered necessary in Tongyeong. For the marine-ecosystem index, Tongyeong indicates stable catch ratio of large fish species and a fishing-in-balance exceeding 0. Finally, the annual catch variation for six pelagic fish species in Jinhae Bay by 2060 is estimated based on the IPCC climate-change scenario, in which the recent low level that decreased to approximately 20 thousand ton in early 2020 is projected to recover to approximately 40 thousand ton in the 2020s and 2040s, followed by an incremental decline by 2060.

A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

Evaluating the Predictability of Heat and Cold Damages of Soybean in South Korea using PNU CGCM -WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 우리나라 콩의 고온해 및 저온해에 대한 예측성 검증)

  • Myeong-Ju, Choi;Joong-Bae, Ahn;Young-Hyun, Kim;Min-Kyung, Jung;Kyo-Moon, Shim;Jina, Hur;Sera, Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2022
  • The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Development of Deep-Learning-Based Models for Predicting Groundwater Levels in the Middle-Jeju Watershed, Jeju Island (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 제주도 중제주수역 지하수위 예측 모델개발)

  • Park, Jaesung;Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Kim, Ki-Hong;Shin, Jaehyeon;Lee, Dongyeop;Jeong, Saebom
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.697-723
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    • 2022
  • Data-driven models to predict groundwater levels 30 days in advance were developed for 12 groundwater monitoring stations in the middle-Jeju watershed, Jeju Island. Stacked long short-term memory (stacked-LSTM), a deep learning technique suitable for time series forecasting, was used for model development. Daily time series data from 2001 to 2022 for precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and groundwater level were considered. Various models were proposed that used different combinations of the input data types and varying lengths of previous time series data for each input variable. A general procedure for deep-learning-based model development is suggested based on consideration of the comparative validation results of the tested models. A model using precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and previous groundwater level data as input variables outperformed any model neglecting one or more of these data categories. Using extended sequences of these past data improved the predictions, possibly owing to the long delay time between precipitation and groundwater recharge, which results from the deep groundwater level in Jeju Island. However, limiting the range of considered groundwater usage data that significantly affected the groundwater level fluctuation (rather than using all the groundwater usage data) improved the performance of the predictive model. The developed models can predict the future groundwater level based on the current amount of precipitation and groundwater use. Therefore, the models provide information on the soundness of the aquifer system, which will help to prepare management plans to maintain appropriate groundwater quantities.

Study on the Long-term Forecasting of Brown Planthopper Outbreaks (벼멸구 발생의 장기예찰을 위한 기초적 연구)

  • Paik Woon Hah;Paik Hyun Joon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.16 no.3 s.32
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 1977
  • Since the outbreak of the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) in 1915 caused tremendous losses in rice production, one of the more effective method of prevention of such a disaster could be the establishment of longterm forecasting system, In 1916 the author indicated there was a correlation between sunspot activities and brown planthopper and the white back planthopper outbreaks. However, the examples seem to be too small size to state a definite correlation. The purpose of the present study IS to revi~w the history of the brown planthopper outbreaks, and to establish a more effective forcasting system. The present forcasting methods are based on light trap catches of adults which already migrate into this country from mainland China. The regular cycle of 11.2 years of sunspot activity began in 1710, and was continued to present. To gather more records of brown planthopper, the author checked 'Joseon Wangjo Silrok' and analized the so-called 'Hwang' 'Hwang-chung' and 'Chung' which have multiple meanings, together with 'Samguk Sagi' 'Goryo Sa' and 'Munheon Bigo.' The results obtained by the about from review of these old literature citations revealed that ten species of insect and unknown species were involved: i. e., pine moth (Dendrolimus spectabilis), army worm (Mythimna separata), brown planthopper (Nilarvata lugens), white-back planthopper (Sogatella furcifera), migratory locust (Locutsa migratoria), rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis,), mole cricket (Gryllotalpa africana), rice-plant weevil (Echinocnemus squameus), cut worm (Euxoa segetum), and mulberry pyralid Margaronia pyloalis) The suspected incidence of planthopper in old records expressed by 'Hwang' or 'Chung' revealed a total or 25 out of 37 in 'Samguk sagi,' 21 out of 49 in 'Goryo sa,' 9 of 73 in 'Wanjo-silrog,' and none of 8 in 'Munheon bigo' were planthoppers. Therefore, a total of 36 out of 167 records of insect incidence in the old literature can be possibly attributed to planthoppers. The brown planthopper and white-back planthopper migrate together to Korea every year from mainland China, However, the number of each species are differ by year. In 1975 outbreak the brown planthopper was dominant; and the white-back planthopper prevailed in 1946 and 1977 outbreaks, During the course of this study, the author was able to add a new record of outbreak of planthop per. In 1916 the white-back planthopper outbreak caused serious losses in Chungcheong-namdo and Jeonla-namdo, with losses estimated as high as 160 and 190 thousand seok (23.2 and 27.5 thousand M/T), in Naju and Secheon county, respectively. Since 1912, major outbreaks of brown planthopper or white-back planthopper have been recored 5 times. These occurrences coincide and well matched the period of minimum number of sunspots, With these authenticated records of planthoppers, the author believes there is a close correlation between brown planthopper and white-back planthopper outbreaks in Korea and sunspot activities. Therefore, in years of low number of sunspots, we should watch for and expect outbreaks of these. insects. At this time, it will be necessary to provide all possible prevention measures.

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Prospects of Fertilizer Demand based on Recent Consumption (최근(最近)의 비료소비면(肥料消費面)에서 본 비료수요전망(肥料需要展望))

  • Park, Young-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 1976
  • In Korea, the ever-increasing population has become a serious problem and the decreasing of cultivated lard area per person has become a major concern. Therefore, today we are implementing a green revolution using miracle varieties which require more fertilizer. The increased use of fertilizer along with development and adoption of high yielding varieties is the key to carrying out this green revolution. Fertilizer consumption in Korea is mainly influenced by agricultural techniques, fertilizer prices and government policies for increasing food production. If there are no special change, such as a cataclysm or an exhaustion of resources, it is quite clear that the fertilizer demand will increase to the near maximum ceiling point of optimum levels for crops in the year 2000. Fertilizer demand is not the amount of fertilizer that will be used by the farmer, but the actual optimum amount of plant nutrients required for maximum production. In this report, two alternative strategies are consideded in forecasting the future feitilizer demands. Alternative I is projected by reviewing consumption amounts over the last 10 years (1966~75) in Korea. The annual rate of increase in fertilizer consumption for the last 10 years was approximately 8.7% (table 1). Plant nutrient consumption rates in later years have been more balanced, and also fertilizer consumption per total acreage is considerably higher in Korea than in other countries (table 11), consequently the rate of increase in the future is expected to decline. Looking at the long term projections, the average annual rate of increase is expected to be 7% for 1976~80, 2.5% for 1981~90, 1.5% for 1991~2000. Thus, total projected fertilizer demands are estimated at 1,208,000M/T by 1980, 1,547,000M/T by 1990, 1,795,000M/T by 2000 (table 16). Alternative II is based on projected optimum fertilizer levels for crops and on increased crop acreage. The government recommended fertilizer rate has increased by a factor of 0.99 to 5.49 over the past twelve years depending on the specific crops (table 4). Levels of fertilizer demand recommended by government (table 7) in 1976 are still low compared with actual optimum fertilizer demands for crops (table 5). Therefore, future incaeases in fertilizer usage are anticipated. Thus, total projected fertilizer demands are estimated at 1,229,000M/T by 1980, 1,493,000M/T by 1990 and 1,898,000M/T by 2000(table 16).

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