• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long Term Equilibrium

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The effect of international oil price on LNG price in South Korea and Japan

  • Kwon, Hyukdong;Cho, Hong Chong
    • Geosystem Engineering
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.297-308
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we investigate the differences between LNG price of South Korea and Japan. Although S. Korean and Japanese LNG markets have similar structures, there are some differences in the price formation. From DCC-MGARCH, we confirm that Japan LNG price have less persistence of disturbance on time than S. Korean LNG price. The conditional correlation also shows linkage effects between LNG prices and impacts of S-curve and DS-curve. Moreover, ARDL estimation result shows that there is co-integration in all models and that impacts of Fukushima accident and LNG volumes are responsible for the increase in Japanese LNG price. Also, adjustment speed of error correction term shows that Japan's deviation from long-run equilibrium disappears faster than S. Korea does, indicating relatively strong Japanese linkage between LNG price and oil price.

An Exploration of Dynamical Relationships between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Korea

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Brahmasrene, Tantatape
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2018
  • This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

An Engle-Granger and Johansen Cointegration Approach in Testing the Validity of Fisher Hypothesis in the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Abraham C. Jr.;CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2021
  • This study contributes to the existing literature and tries to analyze the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in the Philippines. Using monthly data from January 1995 to December 2020, the empirical analysis used the Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration testing technique. The correlation coefficient suggests a strong positive association. All things being equal, a rise in inflation leads to a rise in the nominal interest rate. The unit-root tests show that inflation and the nominal interest rate are both stationary. Based on both Engle-Granger and cointegrating regression Durbin-Watson tests, the nominal interest rate and inflation are cointegrated. Likewise, the results from Johansen cointegration indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables. However, we rejected a one-to-one relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation. The error correction term coefficient (ECM) shows that it is statistically significant suggesting that the nominal interest rate adjusts to the inflation rate with a lag. The Pair-wise Granger Causality test reported a bi-directional causal relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation. Inflation targeting has been the monetary policy framework of choice for most central banks. In essence, the conclusions of this study are useful to central banks because they help them better comprehend the long-run equilibrium relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation.

Envisaging Macroeconomics Antecedent Effect on Stock Market Return in India

  • Sivarethinamohan, R;ASAAD, Zeravan Abdulmuhsen;MARANE, Bayar Mohamed Rasheed;Sujatha, S
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.311-324
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    • 2021
  • Investors have increasingly become interested in macroeconomic antecedents in order to better understand the investment environment and estimate the scope of profitable investment in equity markets. This study endeavors to examine the interdependency between the macroeconomic antecedents (international oil price (COP), Domestic gold price (GP), Rupee-dollar exchange rates (ER), Real interest rates (RIR), consumer price indices (CPI)), and the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 index return. The data is converted into a natural logarithm for keeping it normal as well as for reducing the problem of heteroscedasticity. Monthly time series data from January 1992 to July 2019 is extracted from the Reserve Bank of India database with the application of financial Econometrics. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test for removal of autocorrelation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for removal of heteroscedasticity, Cointegration test and VECM test for testing cointegration between macroeconomic factors and market returns,] are employed to fit regression model. The Indian market returns are stable and positive but show intense volatility. When the series is stationary after the first difference, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation are not present. Different forecast accuracy measures point out macroeconomics can forecast future market returns of the Indian stock market. The step-by-step econometric tests show the long-run affiliation among macroeconomic antecedents.

Reviewing the Assessment of Optimal Yield of Groundwater in Korea

  • Soo-Hyoung Lee;Jae Min Lee;Se-Yeong Hamm
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.511-522
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    • 2024
  • The optimal yield is defined as the amount of groundwater that maintains a dynamic equilibrium state of the groundwater system over a long period. We examined the current problems, improvements, and methods for estimating the optimal groundwater yield in Korea, considering sustainable groundwater development. The optimal yield for individual wells and the sustainable yield for the entire groundwater basin were reviewed. Generally, the optimal yield for individual wells can be determined using long-term pumping and step drawdown tests. The optimal yield can be determined by groundwater quantity and quality, economic, and water use rights factors. The optimal yield of individual wells in the groundwater basin must be determined within the total sustainable amount of the entire groundwater basin, such that the optimal yield of a new well must be less than the remaining total sustainable amount, exempting the total optimal yield of the existing wells. Therefore, the optimal yield may be determined based on the estimated optimal yield at least twice per year. In addition, if groundwater level and pumping quantity data for at least one year are available, it may be effective to use the Hill, Harding, and zero groundwater-level change methods to re-estimate the optimal yield.

Investing the relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth (연구개발투자와 경제성장의 상호관계 실증분석)

  • hyunyi Choi;Cho Keun Tae
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.59-82
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this research is to conduct the empirical analysis of the short- and long-term causal relationship between public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, and university R&D investment on economic growth in Korea. To this end, based on the time series data from 1976 to 2020, a causality test was conducted through the unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, it was found that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth in Korea, public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, and university R&D investment, in which a causal relationship exists in the long run. Also, while public R&D investment has a short-term effect on economic growth, corporate and university R&D investment does not have a short-term effect on economic growth. In addition, the results shows that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment and public R&D investment, and university R&D investment and public R&D investment in the short term. Through this research, it was empirically found that a highly mutual relationship exists between public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, university R&D investment and economic growth. In order to increase the ripple effect of R&D investment on economic growth in the future, R&D investment between universities and corporations should be mutually promoted, and R&D investment by corporations should have a positive effect on public R&D investment so that public R&D investment can contribute to future economic growth.

Reduction of the Offensive Odor from Confectionery Wastewater Plant (제과공장의 폐수처리장에서 발생하는 악취 저감)

  • 김영식;손병현;조상원;정종현
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1998
  • It has been studied that the measurement of odor component emission at confectionery manufacture. The objects of this study were to investigate reduction of offensive odor. The survey effects of odorous materials are presented as follows. The countermeasure of operating process is to minimize sludge sediment in each unit facility. Especially, in summer, we have to clean the sludge frequently, because anaerobic decomposing is likely to occur easily. The sludge or scum from sedimentation tank pond, and floating tank should be treated quickly. We should avoid overloading operation. In the case of overloading, dissolved oxygen should be increased, the quality of wastewater input should be decreased. When dried cakes from condense tank or floating tank are left in treatment plant, we should cover, to prevent diffusion of smell with masking materials. The seasonal condition of operating should be fixed and the kind of coagulants should be changed because the wastewater in each season have different loading rates and organic materials. Odorous materials are very sensitive to the seasonal temperature variation. Especially, when the amount of rainfall is small and the high temperature of maintenance in long periods, air diffusion rate is large, so odorous materials can make great effect on surroundings comparision with other periods. To reduce odorous gas, as short term method, we had better take ceramic addition method. Especially, in summer we should take ceramic addition method. Also, as long term method, the size of wastewater treatment facility is the most important in the normal operating of wastewater treatment facility. But wastewater treatment facilities in this factory are too old, treatment process is old fashion, and the size is too small. So, large wastewater quantity to treat in summer. As results, the expansion of wastewater treatment facility and the process of improvement are required. Restriction level of odor was exceed. As it is overloaded in summer, the basis cause of odor is that the size of wastewater treatment facility is small. The prediction of air quality equilibrium density variation show that the odorous materials from working place are Amine materials whose smell strength is about 2.5(a little strong degree). We can suppose that in summer is sensitive to temperature variation, smell strength is larger as to reduce the origin of odor. We must expand wastewater treatment facility and improve the process A.S.A.P.

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A Study on the Effects of Oil Shocks and Energy Efficient Consumption Structure with a Bayesian DSGE Model (베이지안 동태확률일반균형모형을 이용한 유가충격 및 에너지 소비구조 전환의 효과분석)

  • Cha, Kyungsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.215-242
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    • 2010
  • This study constructs a bayesian neoclassical DSGE model that applies oil usage. The model includes technology shocks, oil price shocks, and shocks to energy policies as exogenous driving forces. First, this study aims to analyze the roles of these exogenous shocks in the Korean business cycle. Second, this study examines the effects of long-term changes in the energy consumption structure, including the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and improvement in oil efficiency. In the case of oil price shocks, results show that these shocks exert recessionary pressure on the economy in line with those obtained in the previous literature. On the other hand, shocks to energy policies, which reduce oil consumption per capital, result in opposite consequences to oil price shocks, decreasing oil consumption. Also, counterfactual exercises show that long-term changes in the energy consumption structure would mitigate the contractionary effects of oil price shocks.

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Capital Structure's Mean-Reversion and Long-Term Equilibrium (자본구조의 평균회귀현상과 장기균형)

  • Son, Pan-Do;Son, Seung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.33-78
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    • 2008
  • This paper empirically examines whether firms engage in a dynamic adjustment process toward target capital structure and, whether there is a target capital structure or mean reverting using the partial adjustment model while allowing for costly adjustment. Also we investigate the empirical determinants of optimal target capital structure in long term equilibrium. As a result, our empirical model captures at least several important features of capital structure behavior for Korean listed firms. First, Korean firms pursue target capital structure and also there is mean reverting phenomenon. Second, Non-Chaebol and small firm in adjustment speed is faster than Chaebol and large firm. Third, even capital market restricts the adjustment speed interestingly. Fourth, Korean firms have target behavior according to a degree of observed gap. Fifth, Korean firms close about one-fourth of the gap between their actual and target debt ratios within one year and thence targeting behavior explains far more of the observed changes in capital structure than market timing or pecking order considerations. Sixth, capital market is significant in determining optimal capital structure.

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Analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship of factors affecting the volatility of the drybulk shipping market (건화물선 해운시장의 변동성에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 장기적 균형관계 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.41-57
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    • 2023
  • The drybulk shipping market has high freight rate volatility in the chartering market and various and complex factors affecting the market. In the unstable economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the BDI plunged due to a decrease in trade volume, but turned from the end of 2020 and maintained a booming period until the end of 2022. The main reason for the market change is the decrease in the available fleet that can actually be operated for cargo transport due to port congestion by the COVID-19 pandemic, regardless of the fleet and trade volume volatility that have affected the drybulk shipping market in the past. A decrease in the actual usable fleet due to vessel waiting at port by congestion led to freight increase, and the freight increase in charting market led to an increase in second-hand ship and new-building ship price in long-term equilibrium relationship. In the past, the drybulk shipping market was determined by the volatility of fleet and trade volume. but, in the future, available fleet volume volatility by pandemics, environmental regulations and climate will be the important factors affecting BDI. To response to the IMO carbon emission reduction in 2023, it is expected that ship speed will be slowed down and more ships are expected to be needed to transport the same trade volume. This slowdown is expected to have an impact on drybulk shipping market, such as a increase in freight and second-hand ship and new-building ship price due to a decrease in available fleet volume.