• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long Term Equilibrium

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Long-run Equilibrium Relationship Between Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Philippines

  • MONSURA, Melcah Pascua;VILLARUZ, Roselyn Mostoles
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2021
  • The financial sector is one of the most important building blocks of the economy. When this sector efficiently implemented a well-crafted program on banking and financial system to translate financial activities to income-generating activity, economic growth will be realized. Hence, this study analyzed the effect of financial intermediation on economic growth and the existence of cointegrating relationship using time-series data from 1986 to 2015. The influence of financial intermediation in terms of bank credit to bank deposit ratio, private credit, and stock market capitalization and time trend to economic growth was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression. The results showed that all the financial intermediation indicators and time trend exert significant effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The positive sign of the time trend indicates that there is an upward trend in GDP per capita averaging approximately 0.06 percent annually. Furthermore, the cointegration test using the Johansen procedure revealed that there is a presence of long-term equilibrium relationship between financial intermediation and time trend and economic growth, and rules out spurious regression results. This study established the idea that financial intermediation in the Philippines has a significant and vital role in stimulating growth in the economy.

Long-term Bed Change Analysis and Equilibrium Bed Elevation Prediction after Weir Construction in Nakdong River (낙동강의 보 구조물 설치 후 장기 하상변동 분석 및 평형하상고 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Un;Jang, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.7089-7097
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    • 2015
  • Bed changes in the Nakdong River were analyzed with long-term monitoring data for analyzing riverbed change patterns after Four Major Rivers Restoration Project (FMRRP). Also, possible long-term bed changes were predicted using one-dimensional numerical model for the section where the largest change was observed after FMRRP. The sensitive analysis was performed with different incoming sediment discharge conditions and sediment transport equations. The numerical model was calibrated by comparing short-term monitoring data and simulated results, and was applied for predicting bed change after 10 years. As a result of monitoring data analysis, the largest change in bed elevation occurred at the section between the Changnyeong-Haman and Hapcheon-Changnyeong weirs. The result of one-dimensional numerical modeling for 10 years indicated that maximum depositions of 2.07 m and 3.26 m were produced in this section.

Analysis of Shoreline Response due to Wave Energy Incidence Using Equilibrium Beach Profile Concept (평형해빈단면 개념을 이용하여 파랑 에너지 유입에 따른 해안선 변동 해석)

  • Kim, Tae-Kon;Lee, Jung-Lyul
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2018
  • Dean's equilibrium beach profile formula was used to investigate the correlation between the static shoreline position and the incident wave energy. The effect of the longshore sediment transport was neglected, and the results showed the reasonable agreement compared with the field observations of Yates et al.(2009), which were conducted for almost 5 years on southern California beaches, USA. The shoreline response varies with the scale factor of Dean's equilibrium beach profile. This implies that the shoreline response could be simply estimated using the sampled grain size without laborious long-term field work. Therefore, the present study results are expected to be practically used for the layout design of submerged or exposed detached breakwaters although the further work is required for performance verification. In addition, after laborous mathematical reviews, the linear relation between incident energy and shoreline response, which was obtained from Yates's field study, yielded a clear mathematical equation showing how the beach slope is related to the grain size.

The Method for Estimating the Inverse Demand Curve of Cournot Model in Electricity Market (전력시장 적용을 위한 쿠르노 모델에서의 역수요함수 추정 방법 제안)

  • Kang Dong-Joo;Hur Jin;Kim Tae-Hyun;Moon Young-Hwan;Lee Keun-Dae;Chung Koo-Hyung;Kim Balho H.
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2005
  • At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium.

An Analysis on Supply-Demand Outlook of Korean Omija(Medicinal Plant) (약용작물 오미자의 중장기 수급전망 분석)

  • Choi, Byung-Ok;Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.2689-2694
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    • 2014
  • This study analyze the impact of omija(maximowiczia chinensis) market by Korea-China FTA and review the change of mid and long term supply-demand from 2014 to 2018. A scenario is also imported to simulate and measure the impacts of the Korea-China FTA. The scenario is that tariff rates for Chinese product(omija) will be zero after 5 years from 2014. A partial equilibrium model of Omija is specified to forecast mid and long term supply-demand and prices. Equations in the model were estimated by using econometric techniques. The results based on scenario are compared with the results by the baseline case(maintenance of current situation). Our study show that when the tariff rates for Chinese product(Omija) will be zero after 5 years from 2014, the cultivated area of Omija is forecasted to decline until 3,370ha in 2018, and the consumption is forecasted to increase up to 12,040.8MT in 2018, and also total revenue of about 9.8 billion korean won will be decreased during 5 years(2014-2018).

An analysis of the causality between international oil price and skipjack tuna price (국제 유가 변동과 원양선망어업 가다랑어 가격 간의 인과성 분석)

  • JO, Heon-Ju;KIM, Do-Hoon;KIM, Doo-Nam;LEE, Sung-Il;LEE, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

An Empirical Study on Main Factors Affecting Technology Balance of Payments (기술무역수지에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들에 대한 실증연구)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.61-89
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to estimate empirically the respective impacts of R&D expenditure, R&D labor, overseas direct investment, commodity trade balance, and technology trade openness on technology balance of payments. To examine the presence of co-integration between them, this paper employed the ARDL-bounds test using time series data from 1981 to 2014, and the result shows that there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Furthermore, we estimated long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to each variables based on long-run equilibrium equation and error correction model. As a result, the technology balance of payments respond negatively to R&D labor and technology trade openness, and R&D expenditure does produce positive effects in the long-run, while coefficients of overseas direct investment and commodity trade balance in the long-run are not statistically significant. Besides, according to results of error correction model, overseas direct investment only has clearly a positive effects in the short-run, in contrast, the short-term relationships between the other variables and the technology balance of payments could not definitively derived. This implies that it is necessary to procure and cultivate talented personnel, as well as to enlarge gradually technology trade size in order to improve technology balance of payments from a long-term point of view.

The Interactive Relationship between Small and Medium-sized Enterprises' Clusters and Regional Economic Growth

  • Rong, Wang;Li, Xu
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This paper aims to explain the interactive relationship between small and medium-sized enterprises' clusters and regional economic growth, with Jiangsu Province as an illustrative example. It focuses on studying the promotional effects, if any, of small and medium-sized enterprises' cluster-development on regional economic growth, and vice-versa. Research design, data, and methodology - Data were collected from the Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook and the China Industrial Economic Statistical Yearbook, by selecting 26 industries as the research subjects. The sample interval selection is 1981-2012. The data were analyzed with the dynamic panel system using stata 12.0. Results - 1) The small and medium-sized enterprises' cluster degree and Jiangsu's economic growth have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship. 2) In the short term, they have a dynamic adjustment 3) The enterprises' cluster degree leads to regional economic growth in Jiangsu, but not vice-versa. Conclusions - Small and medium-sized enterprises' clusters have an important promotional effect on Jiangsu's economic growth, especially industries with high degree of agglomeration. Therefore, the formation of these clusters can significantly improve economic growth.

An Empirical Study on the Wealth Effect

  • Kim, Yon Hyong;Chong, Young Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2003
  • The primary purpose of this paper is to estimate the wealth effect. We establish a linear relationships between household consumption, labor income, and stock price index. Each variable is nonstationary. And so, it contains a unit root. However, as the result of the test about cointegrating relations, the variables are cointegrated which implies the error term is stationary. The cointegrating parameter that the marginal propensity to consume out of stock price is 0.08%. The result of estimation shows the error correction is -0.62 and the significant level is also high. The error correction term indicates a rather rapid adjustment to deviations from the long run equilibrium relations.

Long-Term Hydraulic Conductivity and Cation Exchange of a Geosynthetic Clay Liner (GCL) Permeated with Inorganic Salt Solutions

  • Jo, Ho Young;Benson, Craig H.;Edil, Tuncer B.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2004.09a
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    • pp.59-62
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    • 2004
  • Hydraulic conductivity tests were conducted on a geosynthetic clay liner (GCL) for more than 2.5 yr using inorganic salt solutions to evaluate how the long-term hydraulic conductivity is affected by cation concentration and valence. Only small changes (i.e., $\leq$ 2X) in hydraulic conductivity (K) occurred during the test duration when the permeant solution was deionized (DI) water or 100 mM KCl and NaCl solutions. For weak CaCl$_2$ solutions ($\leq$ 20 mM), the hydraulic conductivities initially (< 0.2 yr) were comparable to the hydraulic conductivity obtained with DI water, but gradually increased by a factor of 2 to 13 over a period of nearly 2 yr. In contrast, the GCL permeated with strong CaCl$_2$ solutions ($\geq$ 50 mM) reached equilibrium nearly immediately, with a hydraulic conductivity approximately 2 orders of magnitude higher than the hydraulic conductivity to DI water.

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