• 제목/요약/키워드: Long Term Equilibrium

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Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in the Emerging ASEAN Countries

  • RAKSONG, Saranya;SOMBATTHIRA, Benchamaphorn
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.731-740
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    • 2021
  • This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

Impact of Energy Consumption, FDI and Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions in lvory Coast

  • Ange Aurore KADI;Liang LI;David Dauda LANSANA;Joseph FUSEINI
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The study focuses on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade openness, and energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in the Ivory Coast. It aims to quantitatively evaluate the effects of FDI, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO2 emissions in Ivory Coast. Research design, data, and methodology: The research uses an econometric framework and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze time-series data from 1980 to 2021 between these factors. Results: The analysis revealed that FDI significantly impacts the carbon dioxide emissions, FDI showed a negative impact on carbon emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Also, energy consumption impacted CO2 emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Conclusion: To mitigate the upsurge of CO2 emissions in the Ivorian context, concrete policy, including enactment and adherence to strict environmental regulations, adoption and prioritization of eco-friendly products and technologies, and investment in renewable energy infrastructure are recommended. The study contributes to the global discussion on sustainable development by offering a model for similar assessments in other emerging nations facing simultaneous economic growth and environmental conservation challenges.

컨테이너 운임에 미치는 영향요인 분석 (Analysis of Factors Affecting on the Freight Rate of Container Carriers)

  • 안영균;고병욱
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제43권5호
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    • pp.159-177
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    • 2018
  • 국가 물류 인프라인 컨테이너 해운에 대한 합리적 투자 및 정책 결정을 하기 위해서는 컨테이너 해상운임의 결정요인에 대한 이해가 요구된다. 본 연구는 벡터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model; VECM)을 사용하여 컨테이너 운임에 영향을 미치는 요인별 영향력을 추정하였다. 이를 위해 영국 클락슨이 공표하는 데이터를 사용하였으며, 분석결과 물동량 1.0% 증가 시 운임 4.2% 증가, 선복량 1.0% 증가 시 운임 4.0% 감소, 벙커유 가격 1.0% 증가 시 운임 0.07% 증가, Libor 1.0% 증가 시 운임은 0.04% 증가하는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 현 운임이 장기균형 시점의 운임보다 1.0% 높을 경우 운임은 3.2% 차기에 감소하며, 장기균형 운임보다 1.0% 적을 경우 0.12% 차기에 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 불황기 영향력은 통계적 유의성이 낮았으며, 이는 호황기에는 운임감소 압력이 뚜렷하나 불황기에는 운임상승 압력이 없는 것으로 이해된다. 이 같은 분석 결과는 향후 컨테이너 해운시장의 전망에 과학적인 접근법의 활용에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

개회로 CO2/H2O 적외선 기체 분석기 보정 인자의 변동성과 장기 플럭스 관측에 미치는 영향 (Variability of Calibration Factors for Open-Path CO2/H2O Infrared Gas Analyzer and Its Effect on Long-Term Flux Measurement)

  • 최태진;윤진일;임종환;박은우;김준
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2002
  • Calibration experiments were executed to document pertinent calibration methods for open-path infrared gas analyzer (OP-2) in field operations and to quantify their performance characteristics in continuous long-term flux measurements. Based on our results, we concluded: (1) flow rate of 2.0 L min$^{-1}$ can be used for calibration instead of the recommended 0.5 L min$^{-1}$ . Such faster flow rate brings the sampled air in the calibration hood at equilibrium within 5 min for $CO_2$ and 10 min for $H_2O$; (2) after reaching equilibrium, two-minute average sampling for related variables per each concentration may be sufficient; (3) use of four concentration is needed to derive the nonlinear calibration equation for water vapor with 1% uncertainty of flux measurement; and (4) the resultant calibration interval for OP-2 for both $CO_2$ and $H_2O$ is approximately one month.

Market Interactions for Farmed Fish Species on the Korean Market

  • Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to analyze the market interactions among the main farmed fish species in Korea, using both multivariate and bivariate cointegration analysis. For the analysis of market interactions among farmed fish species, major four farmed fish species, olive flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus), black rockfish (Sebastes schlegeli), red seabream (Pagrus major), and grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) were selected as the analytical target species. And their real price data by month from January 2000 to December 2011 were used in the analysis. The results of the multivariate cointegration test for four farmed fish showed that there would be no long-term equilibrium relationships among farmed fish species, and consequently they do not share the same market. The results of bivariate cointegration test indicated that there was little evidence to suggest that all farmed fish species were cointegrated each other. However, it was only analyzed that olive flounder and grey mullet might have a long run equilibrium relationship.

환경정책과 지역경제 : 상반관계 vs. 보완관계 (Environment Policy and Regional Economic Growth: Conflicting vs. Complementing)

  • 김홍배;윤갑식
    • 지역연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 1999
  • It is generally believed that there is a trade-off between economic growth and environmental quality since pollutants are generated in the process of production and consumption of commodities. Several researchers have shown this prevailing belief using the short-term input-output models. The literature, however, shows that there have been few attempts to investigate the relationship using long-term forecasting models. This motivates the current paper. This paper attempts to build a reginal growth model in a partial equilibrium framework taking into consideration the requirements of capital invested for pollutant abatement. Model is largely neoclassical. Labor is assumed to move a region with high utility specified in regional per capita average was income and pollution level while capital is partially mobile to a region with high returns. The regional growth is explored in a phase diagram. The paper shows that there are two stable growth equilibria which a region can converge over time and that the equilibria are distinguished by the initial threshold capital stock that a region holds. If the initial capital stock of a region is over(under) than the threshold size, the region converges to the higher (lower) growth equilibrium over time. Moreover, based on this result an environmental quality enhancing policy is analyzed in the phase diagram. It has revealed that the policy calls for the relocation of growth equilibrium points, specifically speaking, it stimulates an increase in labor stock and a decrease in capital stock. Hence the paper has suggested that the prevailing belief which the environmental policy negatively impacts on a regional economic growth is not always true.

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승용차용 정전 필터 내의 정전 섬유의 보유 하전 감쇄에 의한 미세 입자 포집효율 변화 (Charge Depletion Effect on Collection Efficiency of an Electret Cabin Air Filter for Submicron Particles)

  • 지준호;강석훈;황정호;배귀남
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집B
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2001
  • An electret filter is composed of permanently charged electet fibers and is widely used in applications requiring high collection efficiency and low-pressure drop. In this work, the collection efficiency of the filter media used in manufacturing cabin air filters was investigated by using poly-disperse particles when submicron particles are loaded. Long-term experiments were conducted by applying different charging states, which are spray electrification and charge equilibrium by bipolar ionization. In order to investigate on the effect of particle loading in filter media, NaCl particles were generated from 0.1% and 1% solutions by an atomizer. In NaCl 0.1%, the collection efficiency of electret filter decreased and then did not change in equilibrium state. In the case of relative larger particles of NaCl 1%, collection efficiency for the equilibrium charged particles increases due to the particle loading on the filter fibers. Particles charged by spray electrification are small in collection efficiency after equilibrium state and increase of filter media's pressure drop was very low in comparison of the equilibrium charged particles.

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국내 온실가스 배출량과 경제성장 간 장단기 비동조화 분석 (Decoupling Analysis between GHGs and GDP in Korea)

  • 김대수;이상엽
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.583-615
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    • 2019
  • 본 논문은 1990~2016년 기간의 우리나라 온실가스 배출량과 경제성장 간 비동조화 수준에 대한 장단기 분석을 실시하였다. 환경쿠즈네츠곡선 존재 여부에 초점을 맞추어 수행된 기존 연구와 달리 본 연구는 온실가스와 경제성장 간 관계(온실가스 배출의 소득탄력성)의 단기 변동성에 초점을 맞추어 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 장기적으로는 온실가스 - 경제성장 - 화석연료 간 견고한 인과관계가 존재하여 비동조화로 평가하기에 어려운 것으로 나타난 반면, 단기적으로는 상대적 비동조화가 뚜렷하게 확인되었다. 이를 통해 현재 국가 온실가스 배출전망 및 감축목표 상에 배출 소득탄력성의 단기 변동성을 고려하지 못하는 한계점을 제기하였으며, 국가 단위 내 화석연료소비, 특히 발전부문의 화석연료 의존도가 온실가스 배출 소득탄성치의 단기 변동성을 낮추는 주요 요인임을 제시하였다.

Static measurement of yield stress using a cylindrical penetrometer

  • Uhlherr, P.H.T.;Guo, J.;Fang, T.N.;Tiu, C.
    • Korea-Australia Rheology Journal
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2002
  • A novel and simple method using a cylindrical penetrometer is being developed for the measurement of yield stress. The principle of this technique is based on the measurement of the static equilibrium of a falling penetrometer in a yield stress fluid. The yield stress is simply determined by a balance of forces acting on the penetrometer. The yield stress of Carbopol gels and $TiO_2$ suspensions has been measured using this method. The results are in reasonable agreement with the values from conventional methods. The effects of the dimensions and weight of the penetrometer have been examined. The long-term behaviour was also observed. No measurable creep was seen and equilibrium was found to be very quickly established. The cylindrical penetrometer technique promises to be a simple, quick and reliable static method for the measurement of yield stress.

The Economics of Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China Trade War

  • Park, Cyn-Young;Petri, Peter A.;Plummer, Michael G.
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.233-272
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    • 2021
  • The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.