• 제목/요약/키워드: Local Analysis and Prediction System

검색결과 155건 처리시간 0.025초

앙상블 기반 관측 자료에 따른 예측 민감도 모니터링 시스템 구축 및 평가 (A Monitoring System of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Based on the LETKF Framework Implemented to a Global NWP Model)

  • 이영수;신설은;김정한
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제30권2호
    • /
    • pp.103-113
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, we analyzed and developed the monitoring system in order to confirm the effect of observations on forecast sensitivity on ensemble-based data assimilation. For this purpose, we developed the Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to observation (EFSO) monitoring system based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system coupled with Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We calculated 24 h error variance of each of observations and then classified as beneficial or detrimental effects. In details, the relative rankings were according to their magnitude and analyzed the forecast sensitivity by region for north, south hemisphere and tropics. We performed cycle experiment in order to confirm the EFSO result whether reliable or not. According to the evaluation of the EFSO monitoring, GPSRO was classified as detrimental observation during the specified period and reanalyzed by data-denial experiment. Data-denial experiment means that we detect detrimental observation using the EFSO and then repeat the analysis and forecast without using the detrimental observations. The accuracy of forecast in the denial of detrimental GPSRO observation is better than that in the default experiment using all of the GPSRO observation. It means that forecast skill score can be improved by not assimilating observation classified as detrimental one by the EFSO monitoring system.

A data management system for microbial genome projects

  • Ki-Bong Kim;Hyeweon Nam;Hwajung Seo and Kiejung Park
    • 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2000년도 International Symposium on Bioinformatics
    • /
    • pp.83-85
    • /
    • 2000
  • A lot of microbial genome sequencing projects is being done in many genome centers around the world, since the first genome, Haemophilus influenzae, was sequenced in 1995. The deluge of microbial genome sequence data demands new and highly automatic data flow system in order for genome researchers to manage and analyze their own bulky sequence data from low-level to high-level. In such an aspect, we developed the automatic data management system for microbial genome projects, which consists mainly of local database, analysis programs, and user-friendly interface. We designed and implemented the local database for large-scale sequencing projects, which makes systematic and consistent data management and retrieval possible and is tightly coupled with analysis programs and web-based user interface, That is, parsing and storage of the results of analysis programs in local database is possible and user can retrieve the data in any level of data process by means of web-based graphical user interface. Contig assembly, homology search, and ORF prediction, which are essential in genome projects, make analysis programs in our system. All but Contig assembly program are open as public domain. These programs are connected with each other by means of a lot of utility programs. As a result, this system will maximize the efficiency in cost and time in genome research.

  • PDF

국소평균공기연령을 이용한 국소환경시스템의 청정도 평가 및 예측 (Evaluation and Prediction of Cleanliness Level in the Mini-Environment System Using Local Mean Air-Age)

  • 노광철;이현철;박정일;오명도
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
    • /
    • 제31권5호
    • /
    • pp.457-466
    • /
    • 2007
  • A numerical and experimental study on the evaluation and the prediction of cleanliness level in the mini-environment system was carried out. Using the concept of local mean air-age (LMA) and effective flow rate, the new direct method for estimating the mini-environment was developed and compared with the previous performance index of airflow pattern characteristics. It was found out that the airflow pattern analysis is a restricted method to estimate the real performance of the mini-environment. The reason is that the airflow pattern cannot predict the effect of the increment of the ventilation rate on the cleanliness level in the mini-environment. While LMA is capable of showing the effects of the contaminant accumulation caused by turbulent intensity, eddy, and the increment of the effective flow rate. This result showed that LMA is more exact and effective performance index than the previous one like the airflow pattern characteristics.

농촌지역 돌발재해 피해 경감을 위한 USN기반 통합예경보시스템 (ANSIM)의 개발 (Development of an Integrated Forecasting and Warning System for Abrupt Natural Disaster using rainfall prediction data and Ubiquitous Sensor Network(USN))

  • 배승종;배원길;배연정;김성필;김수진;서일환;서승원
    • 농촌계획
    • /
    • 제21권3호
    • /
    • pp.171-179
    • /
    • 2015
  • The objectives of this research have been focussed on 1) developing prediction techniques for the flash flood and landslide based on rainfall prediction data in agricultural area and 2) developing an integrated forecasting system for the abrupt disasters using USN based real-time disaster sensing techniques. This study contains following steps to achieve the objective; 1) selecting rainfall prediction data, 2) constructing prediction techniques for flash flood and landslide, 3) developing USN and communication network protocol for detecting the abrupt disaster suitable for rural area, & 4) developing mobile application and SMS based early warning service system for local resident and tourist. Local prediction model (LDAPS, UM1.5km) supported by Korean meteorological administration was used for the rainfall prediction by considering spatial and temporal resolution. NRCS TR-20 and infinite slope stability analysis model were used to predict flash flood and landslide. There are limitations in terms of communication distance and cost using Zigbee and CDMA which have been used for existing disaster sensors. Rural suitable sensor-network module for water level and tilting gauge and gateway based on proprietary RF network were developed by consideration of low-cost, low-power, and long-distance for communication suitable for rural condition. SMS & mobile application forecasting & alarming system for local resident and tourist was set up for minimizing damage on the critical regions for abrupt disaster. The developed H/W & S/W for integrated abrupt disaster forecasting & alarming system was verified by field application.

모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구 (Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model)

  • 장민;지준범;민재식;이용희;정준석;유철환
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제26권4호
    • /
    • pp.495-508
    • /
    • 2016
  • In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

지역환경변수를 이용한 인공지능기반 대기오염 분석 및 예측 시스템 개발 (Development of artificial intelligence-based air pollution analysis and prediction system using local environmental variables)

  • 백봉현;하일규
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제25권1호
    • /
    • pp.8-19
    • /
    • 2021
  • 최근 산업화에 따른 대기오염 문제는 국가와 국민 모두에 큰 관심을 끌고 있다. 국내의 광역(廣域) 대기오염 정보는 국가적으로 공공 데이터를 통해 국민에게 제공하고 있으나, 환경변수가 다른 지역적인 대기오염 정보는 매우 부족한 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역적인 대기오염 현상을 보다 정확하게 분석하고 예측할 수 있는 지역 환경변수 기반의 대기오염 분석 및 예측 시스템을 설계하고 구현한다. 특히 제안한 시스템은 지역적으로 측정된 환경 데이터와 공공 빅데이터를 기반으로 지역의 대기정보를 정확하게 분석하여 제공하고, 인공지능 알고리즘을 통해 미래의 지역 대기정보를 예측하여 제시한다. 나아가 제안된 시스템을 통해 지역적인 대기오염의 발생 원인을 정확하게 파악하여 지역의 대기오염을 예방할 수 있을 것으로 기대할 수 있다.

CAE 기법을 이용한 서스펜션 너클의 피로수명 평가 (Fatigue Life Prediction of Suspension Knuckle by CAE Technology)

  • 김영진;서명원;서상민;서재호;김중재
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제3권2호
    • /
    • pp.112-121
    • /
    • 1995
  • Various CAE technologies are used in automobile industries for the purpose of design and analysis. In this paper, a fatigue life evaluation system FLEVA based on the local strain approach is developed and the system is applied for the fatigue strength design of the suspension knuckle, an automobile component. Various steps such as material test, finite element analysis and cumulative fatigue damage analysis of the suspension knuckle were taken. The usefulness of the approach was verified by the fatigue test on the suspension knuckle.

  • PDF

레이더 자료동화에 따른 기상장모의 민감도에 관한 수치연구 (Numerical Study on the Sensitivity of Meteorological Field Variation due to Radar Data Assimilation)

  • 이순환;박근영;류찬수
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제15권1호
    • /
    • pp.9-19
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of this research is development of radar data assimilation observed at Jindo S-band radar The accurate observational data assimilation system is one of the important factors to meteorological numerical prediction of the region scale. Diagnostic analysis system LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) developed by US FSL(Forecast Systems Laboratory) is adopted assimilation system of the Honam district forecasting system. The LAPS system was adjusted in calculation environment in the Honam district. And the improvement in the predictability by the application of the LAPS system was confirmed by the experiment applied to Honam district local severe rain case of generating 22 July 2003. The results are as follows: 1) Precipitation amounts of Gwangju is strong associated with the strong in lower level from analysis of aerological data. This indicated the circulation field especially, 850hPa layer, acts important role to precipitation in Homan area. 2) Wind in coastal area tends to be stronger than inland area and radar data show the strong wind in conversions zone around front. 3) Radar data assimilation make the precipitation area be extended and maximum amount of precipitation be smaller. 4) In respect to contribution rate of different height wind field on precipitation variation, radar data assimilation of upper level is smaller than that of lower level.

객관분석기법에 의한 바람장 모의의 초기입력장 변화 효과 분석 (The Effects of the Changed Initial Conditions on the Wind Fields Simulation According to the Objective Analysis Methods)

  • 김유근;정주희;배주현;권지혜;서장원
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제15권8호
    • /
    • pp.759-774
    • /
    • 2006
  • We employed two data assimilation techniques including MM5 Four Dimensional Data Asssimilation (FDDA) and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) to find out the effects of the changed inetial conditions on the wind fields simulation according to the objective analysis methods. We designed 5 different modeling cases. EXP B used no data assimilation system. Both EXP Fl using surface observations and EXP F2 with surface and upper-air observations employed MM5 FDDA. EXP Ll using surface observations and EXP L2 with surface and upper-air observations used LAPS. As results of, simulated wind fields using MM5 FDDA showed locally characterized wind features due to objective analysis techniques in FDDA which is forcefully interpolating simulated results into observations. EXP Fl represented a large difference in comparison of wind speed with EXP B. In case of LAPS, simulated horizontal distribution of wind fields showed a good agreement with the patterns of initial condition and EXP Ll showed comparably lesser effects of data assimilation of surface observations than EXP Fl. When upper-air observations are applied to the simulations, while MM5 FDDA could hardly have important effects on the wind fields simulation and showed little differences with simulations with merely surface observations (EXP Fl), LAPS played a key role in simulating wind fields accurately and it could contribute to alleviate the over-estimated winds in EXP Ll simulations.

국부변형률근사법을 이용한 차체 점용접부의 피로수명 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study of Fatigue Life Prediction for Automotive Spot Weldment using Local Strain Approach)

  • 이송인;나성훈;나의균;유효선
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한기계학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
    • /
    • pp.61-66
    • /
    • 2000
  • The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4.

  • PDF