• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.17-24
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• 2024

This paper introduces a novel approach to time-series estimation for energy load forecasting within Virtual Power Plant (VPP) systems, leveraging advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Virtual power plants, which integrate diverse microgrids managed by Energy Management Systems (EMS), require precise forecasting techniques to balance energy supply and demand efficiently. The paper introduces a hybrid-method forecasting model combining a parametric-based statistical technique and an AI algorithm. The LSTM algorithm is particularly employed to discern pattern correlations over fixed intervals, crucial for predicting accurate future energy loads. SARIMA is applied to generate time-series forecasts, accounting for non-stationary and seasonal variations. The forecasting model incorporates a broad spectrum of distributed energy resources, including renewable energy sources and conventional power plants. Data spanning a decade, sourced from the Korea Power Exchange (KPX) Electrical Power Statistical Information System (EPSIS), were utilized to validate the model. The proposed hybrid LSTM-SARIMA model with parameter sets (1, 1, 1, 12) and (2, 1, 1, 12) demonstrated a high fidelity to the actual observed data. Thus, it is concluded that the optimized system notably surpasses traditional forecasting methods, indicating that this model offers a viable solution for EMS to enhance short-term load forecasting.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2002년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.1067-1070
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• 2002

The maximum demand power management system(the demand controller) is an equipment for demand management. If the pre-estimated load is over the preset power, the demand controller make warnings and break the load circuit according to predefined priority. Then consumption power is maintained below the maximum demand power level. The DTU receives the control commands from demand controller, and then controls loads. In this paper, the power line cables are used for communication between the demand controller and DTUs and monitoring PC. The experiments show that the proposed system is compatible with the conventional system, and feasible for new or remodeling plant.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.457-459
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• 2003

As a competitive power market has introduced, many energy management systems have been developed. This paper presents the web-based energy management system which is developed by our company. The users tan monitor and analysis their load information using our energy management system.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.511-517
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• 2015

Determination of the required reserve capacity has an important function in operation of power system and it is calculated based on the largest loss of supply. However, conventional method cannot be applied in future power system, because potential grid-connected distributed generator and abnormal temperature cause the large load imbalance. Therefore this paper address new framework for determining the optimal required reserve capacity taking into account the real time load imbalance. At first, we introduce the way of operating reserve resources which are the secondary, tertiary, Direct Load Control (DLC) and Load shedding reserves to make up the load imbalance. Then, the formulated problem can be solved by the Probabilistic Dynamic Programming (PDP) method. In case study, we divide two cases for comparing the cost function between the conventional method and the proposed method.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.264-265
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• 2006

This paper presents direct load control algorithm based locational and electric load characteristics. Direct load control is defined that demand-side management program activities that can interrupt consumer load at the time of annual peak load by direct control of the utility system operator by interruption power supply to individual appliances or equipment on consumer premises. Korean power system is divided into 14-areas considering branches operating in KEPCO, and electric loads are classified into 19 load groups considering interruption costs in this paper. The purpose of proposed method is to decrease social losses by controlling electric loads mainly whose interruption costs are low. It is expected that the proposed algorithm can be used as the countermeasure for the emergency state of the electric power dispatch in a operation point of view.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.196-198
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• 2003

The low load power factor causes various problems such as the increase of the power loss and the voltage instability. The demand of reactive power increases continuously with the growth of active power and the restructuring of electric power companies makes the integrated management of ractive power troublesome, from which the systematic control of load power factor is required. In this paper, the load power factor sensitivity of the generation cost is derived and its effects in supplying the reactive power and enhancing the load power factor are analyzed in a small-scale power system. The load power factor sensitivity of the generation cost is applied for determining the locations and capacities of reactive power compensation devices. It is shown that the generation cost can be reduced and the system power factor can be enhanced effectively using the load power factor sensitivity.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.153-155
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• 2004

Various problems such as the increase of the power loss and the voltage instability may often occur in the case of low load power factor. The demand of reactive power increases continuously with the growth of active power and the restructuring of electric power companies makes the integrated management of ractive power a troublesome problem, so that the systematic control of load power factor is required. In this paper, the load power factor sensitivity of the generation cost is used for determining the locations of reactive power compensation devices effectively and for enhancing the load power factor appropriately. In addition, the integrated costs are used for determining the value of the load power factor from the point of view of the economic operation. It is shown through the application to a large-scale power system that the system power factor can be enhanced effectively and appropriately using the load power factor sensitivity and integrated costs.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권12호
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• pp.8576-8584
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• 2015

전력수요의 예측은 안정적인 전력공급을 위한 수급계획수립을 위해서 그리고 전력계통의 최적운영계획수립을 위해서도 필요하다. 특히 안정적인 전력수급확보를 위해서는 중장기 전력수요예측이 중요하고 공급안정성 강화를 위해서는 지역별 전력수요예측이 중요하다. 지역별 전력수요예측은 지역에 소요되는 부하를 충족시킬 수 있도록 송전선로 및 변전소 등의 계통망의 최적상태 구성 및 유지를 위한 필수적인 과정으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 12개월(중장기)동안 대한민국 시도별 16개 지역의 전력사용량을 SARIMA 모형을 이용하여 예측하는 방법을 제안한다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.477-481
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to provide the ideal forecasting model of cadastral survey work load through the Economeatric Analysis of Time Series, Granger Causality and VAR Model Analysis, it suggested the forecasting reference materials for the total amount of cadastral survey general work load. The main result is that the derive of the environment variables which affect cadastral survey general work load and the outcome of VAR(vector auto regression) analysis materials(impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition analysis materials), which explain the change of general work load depending on altering the environment variables. And also, For confirming the stability of time series data, we took a unit root test, ADF(Augmented Dickey-Fuller) analysis and the time series model analysis derives the best cadastral forecasting model regarding on general cadastral survey work load. And also, it showed up the various standards that are applied the statistical method of econometric analysis so it enhanced the prior aggregate system of cadastral survey work load forecasting.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.47-52
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• 2012

DAS(Distribution Automation System) is equipped with several software applications such as service restoration, loss minimization, and protective relay coordination. The software applications of DAS are very sensitive to the amount of section load being carried by a particular section of distribution lines. Moreover, each software application requires a different parameter of the section load according to its purpose. Therefore, This paper proposes a new section load management method using real-time measurement data of the distribution lines. In order to provide accurate data to DAS applications, this method considers section loads in terms of the relationship of power versus time. In order to establish that the proposed method is feasible, a performance-testing simulator was developed, and case studies were conducted for a modified real distribution network.