• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear Probability Model

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Seismic fragility evaluation of arch concrete dams through nonlinear incremental analysis using smeared crack model

  • Moradloo, Javad;Naserasadi, Kiarash;Zamani, Habib
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.6
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    • pp.747-760
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, a methodology for developing fragilities of arch concrete dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards is introduced. Firstly, the probability risk and fragility curves are presented, followed by implementation and representation of the way this method is used. Amirkabir arch concrete dam was subjected to non-linear dynamic analyses. A modified three dimensional rotating smeared crack model was used to take the nonlinear behavior of mass concrete into account. The proposed model considers major characteristics of mass concrete. These characteristics are pre-softening behavior, softening initiation criteria, fracture energy conservation, suitable damping mechanism and strain rate effect. In the present analysis, complete fluid-structure interaction is included to account for appropriate fluid compressibility and absorptive reservoir boundary conditions. In this study, the Amirkabir arch concrete dam is subjected to a set of 8 three-component earthquakes each scaled to 10 increasing intensity levels. Using proposed nonlinear smeared crack model, nonlinear analysis is performed where the structure is subjected to a large set of scaled and un-scaled ground motions and the maximum responses are extracted for each one and plotted. Based on the results, fragility curves were plotted according to various and possible damages indexes. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and incremental nonlinear analysis. Then, fragility curves were constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Two damage indexes were introduced and compared to one another. The results indicate that the dam has a proper stability under earthquake conditions at MCE level. Moreover, displacement damages index is more conservative and impractical in the fragility analysis than tensional damage index.

Review of the Existing Relative Biological Effectiveness Models for Carbon Ion Beam Therapy

  • Kim, Yejin;Kim, Jinsung;Cho, Seungryong
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2020
  • Hadron therapy, such as carbon and helium ions, is increasingly coming to the fore for the treatment of cancers. Such hadron therapy has several advantages over conventional radiotherapy using photons and electrons physically and clinically. These advantages are due to the different physical and biological characteristics of heavy ions including high linear energy transfer and Bragg peak, which lead to the reduced exit dose, lower normal tissue complication probability and the increased relative biological effectiveness (RBE). Despite the promising prospects on the carbon ion radiation therapy, it is in dispute with which bio-mathematical models to calculate the carbon ion RBE. The two most widely used models are local effect model and microdosimetric kinetic model, which are actively utilized in Europe and Japan respectively. Such selection on the RBE model is a crucial issue in that the dose prescription for planning differs according to the models. In this study, we aim to (i) introduce the concept of RBE, (ii) clarify the determinants of RBE, and (iii) compare the existing RBE models for carbon ion therapy.

Disjunctive Process Patterns Refinement and Probability Extraction from Workflow Logs

  • Kim, Kyoungsook;Ham, Seonghun;Ahn, Hyun;Kim, Kwanghoon Pio
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we extract the quantitative relation data of activities from the workflow event log file recorded in the XES standard format and connect them to rediscover the workflow process model. Extract the workflow process patterns and proportions with the rediscovered model. There are four types of control-flow elements that should be used to extract workflow process patterns and portions with log files: linear (sequential) routing, disjunctive (selective) routing, conjunctive (parallel) routing, and iterative routing patterns. In this paper, we focus on four of the factors, disjunctive routing, and conjunctive path. A framework implemented by the authors' research group extracts and arranges the activity data from the log and converts the iteration of duplicate relationships into a quantitative value. Also, for accurate analysis, a parallel process is recorded in the log file based on execution time, and algorithms for finding and eliminating information distortion are designed and implemented. With these refined data, we rediscover the workflow process model following the relationship between the activities. This series of experiments are conducted using the Large Bank Transaction Process Model provided by 4TU and visualizes the experiment process and results.

Effect of biaxial stress state on seismic fragility of concrete gravity dams

  • Sen, Ufuk;Okeil, Ayman M.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.285-296
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    • 2020
  • Dams are important structures for management of water supply for irrigation or drinking, flood control, and electricity generation. In seismic regions, the structural safety of concrete gravity dams is important due to the high potential of life and economic loss if they fail. Therefore, the seismic analysis of existing dams in seismically active regions is crucial for predicting responses of dams to ground motions. In this paper, earthquake response of concrete gravity dams is investigated using the finite element (FE) method. The FE model accounts for dam-water-foundation rock interaction by considering compressible water, flexible foundation effects, and absorptive reservoir bottom materials. Several uncertainties regarding structural attributes of the dam and external actions are considered to obtain the fragility curves of the dam-water-foundation rock system. The structural uncertainties are sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The Pine Flat Dam in the Central Valley of Fresno County, California, is selected to demonstrate the methodology for several limit states. The fragility curves for base sliding, and excessive deformation limit states are obtained by performing non-linear time history analyses. Tensile cracking including the complex state of stress that occurs in dams was also considered. Normal, Log-Normal and Weibull distribution types are considered as possible fits for fragility curves. It was found that the effect of the minimum principal stress on tensile strength is insignificant. It is also found that the probability of failure of tensile cracking is higher than that for base sliding of the dam. Furthermore, the loss of reservoir control is unlikely for a moderate earthquake.

THEORY OF BACKGROUND NOISE CANCELLATION ON PREDICTION OF RESPONSE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR AN ARBITRARY SOUND WALL SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO ACTUAL SOUND WALL SYSTEMS

  • Ohta, M.;Takaki, N.
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1994.06a
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    • pp.740-745
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    • 1994
  • In the actual situation of measuring the environmental noise, it is very often that only the resultant phenomenon fluctuation contaminated by the additional noise of arbitrary distribution type can be observed. Furthermore, the observed data is usually given in a sound level form the purpose of estimating only the undisturbed objective output response, some estimation method is necessary to reasonably remove the effect of the above additional noise. In this paper, first, a mathematical model of arbitrary sound insulation systems is introduced in the form of a linear system on intensity scale, by using the well-known additive property of energy quantities. Next, some estimation method of the output response under the existence of background noise is derived. Then, based on the expression of the above estimation method, a new prediction method of only the output response probability function form for arbitrary sound insulation systems without. a background noise is proposed by use of observed data contaminated by a background noise. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed experimentally too by applying it to the actual various type sound wall systems.

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Variability of plant risk due to variable operator allowable time for aggressive cooldown initiation

  • Kim, Man Cheol;Han, Sang Hoon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.1307-1313
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    • 2019
  • Recent analysis results with realistic assumptions provide the variability of operator allowable time for the initiation of aggressive cooldown under small break loss of coolant accident or steam generator tube rupture with total failure of high pressure safety injection. We investigated how plant risk may vary depending on the variability of operators' failure probability of timely initiation of aggressive cooldown. Using a probabilistic safety assessment model of a nuclear power plant, we showed that plant risks had a linear relation with the failure probability of aggressive cooldown and could be reduced by up to 10% as aggressive cooldown is more reliably performed. For individual accident management, we found that core damage potential could be gradually reduced by up to 40.49% and 63.84% after a small break loss of coolant accident or a steam generator tube rupture, respectively. Based on the importance of timely initiation of aggressive cooldown by main control room operators within the success criteria, implications for improvement of emergency operating procedures are discussed. We recommend conducting further detailed analyses of aggressive cooldown, commensurate with its importance in reducing risks in nuclear power plants.

Seismic performance assessment of NPP concrete containments considering recent ground motions in South Korea

  • Kim, Chanyoung;Cha, Eun Jeong;Shin, Myoungsu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.386-400
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    • 2022
  • Seismic fragility analysis, a part of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), is commonly used to establish the relationship between a representative property of earthquakes and the failure probability of a structure, component, or system. Current guidelines on the SPRA of nuclear power plants (NPPs) used worldwide mainly reflect the earthquake characteristics of the western United States. However, different earthquake characteristics may have a significant impact on the seismic fragility of a structure. Given the concern, this study aimed to investigate the effects of earthquake characteristics on the seismic fragility of concrete containments housing the OPR-1000 reactor. Earthquake time histories were created from 30 ground motions (including those of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake) by spectral matching to the site-specific response spectrum of Hanbit nuclear power plants in South Korea. Fragility curves of the containment structure were determined under the linear response history analysis using a lumped-mass stick model and 30 ground motions, and were compared in terms of earthquake characteristics. The results showed that the median capacity and high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) tended to highly depend on the sustained maximum acceleration (SMA), and increase when using the time histories which have lower SMA compared with the others.

Performance Analysis of Energy-Efficient Secure Transmission for Wireless Powered Cooperative Networks with Imperfect CSI

  • Yajun Zhang;Jun Wu;Bing Wang;Hongkai Wang;Xiaohui Shang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.2399-2418
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    • 2023
  • The paper focuses on investigating secure transmission in wireless powered communication networks (WPCN) that involve multiple energy-constrained relays and one energy-constrained source. The energy is harvested from a power beacon (PB) while operating in the presence of a passive eavesdropper. The study primarily aims to achieve energy-efficient secure communications by examining the impact of channel estimation on the secrecy performance of WPCN under both perfect and imperfect CSI scenarios. To obtain practical insights on improving security and energy efficiency, we propose closed-form expressions for secrecy outage probability (SOP) under the linear energy harvesting (LEH) model of WPCN. Furthermore, we suggest a search method to optimize the secure energy efficiency (SEE) with limited power from PB. The research emphasizes the significance of channel estimation in maintaining the desired performance levels in WPCN in real-world applications. The theoretical results are validated through simulations to ensure their accuracy and reliability.

Nonlinear Approximations Using Modified Mixture Density Networks (변형된 혼합 밀도 네트워크를 이용한 비선형 근사)

  • Cho, Won-Hee;Park, Joo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.847-851
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    • 2004
  • In the original mixture density network(MDN), which was introduced by Bishop and Nabney, the parameters of the conditional probability density function are represented by the output vector of a single multi-layer perceptron. Among the recent modification of the MDNs, there is the so-called modified mixture density network, in which each of the priors, conditional means, and covariances is represented via an independent multi-layer perceptron. In this paper, we consider a further simplification of the modified MDN, in which the conditional means are linear with respect to the input variable together with the development of the MATLAB program for the simplification. In this paper, we first briefly review the original mixture density network, then we also review the modified mixture density network in which independent multi-layer perceptrons play an important role in the learning for the parameters of the conditional probability, and finally present a further modification so that the conditional means are linear in the input. The applicability of the presented method is shown via an illustrative simulation example.

A Study for Forecasting Methods of ARMA-GARCH Model Using MCMC Approach (MCMC 방법을 이용한 ARMA-GARCH 모형에서의 예측 방법 연구)

  • Chae, Wha-Yeon;Choi, Bo-Seung;Kim, Kee-Whan;Park, You-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.293-305
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    • 2011
  • The volatility is one of most important parameters in the areas of pricing of financial derivatives an measuring risks arising from a sudden change of economic circumstance. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the volatility varying with time under a linear model with ARMA(p, q)-GARCH(r, s) errors. This Bayesian estimate of the volatility is compared with the ML estimate. We also present the probability of existence of the unit root in the GARCH model.