• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.142-148
• /
• 2015

Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing capability, it is not uncommon that life tests yield no or few failures at low stress levels. In these situations it is difficult to analyse lifetime data and make meaningful inferences about product or system reliability. For some products or systems whose performance characteristics degrade over time, a failure is said to have occurred when a performance characteristic crosses a critical threshold. The measurements of the degradation characteristic contain much useful and credible information about product or system reliability. Degradation measurements of the performance characteristics of an unfailed unit at different times can directly relate reliability measures to physical characteristics. Reliability prediction based on physical performance measures can be an efficient and alternative method to estimate for some highly reliable parts or systems. If the degradation process and the distance between the last measurement and a specified threshold can be established, the remaining useful life is predicted in advance. In turn, this prediction leads to just in time maintenance decision to protect systems. In this paper, we describe techniques for mapping product or system which has degrading performance parameter to the associated classical reliability measures in the performance domain. This paper described a general modeling and analysis procedure for reliability prediction based on one dominant degradation performance characteristic considering pseudo degradation performance life trend model. This pseudo degradation trend model is based on probability modeling of a failure mechanism degradation trend and comparison of a projected distribution to pre-defined critical soft failure point in time or cycle.

• Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
• /
• v.16 no.6
• /
• pp.317-322
• /
• 2015

The metal oxide varistor (MOV) is a major component of the surge protection devices (SPDs) currently in use. The device is judged to be faulty when fatigue caused by the continuous inflow of lightning accumulates and reaches the damage limit. In many cases, induced lightning resulting from lightning strikes flows in to the device several times per second in succession. Therefore, the frequency or the rate at which the SPD is actually exposed to stress, called a surge, is outside the range of human perception. For this reason, the protective device should be replaced if it actually approaches the end of its life even though it is not faulty at present, currently no basis exists for making the judgment of remaining lifetime. Up to now, the life of an MOV has been predicted solely based on the number of inflow surges, irrespective of the magnitude of the surge current or the amount of energy that has flowed through the device. In this study, nonlinear data that shows the damage to an MOV depending on the count of surge and the amount of input current were collected through a high-voltage test. Then, a failure prediction algorithm was proposed by preparing a look-up table using the results of the test. The proposed method was experimentally verified using an impulse surge generator

• Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.1 no.4
• /
• pp.252-267
• /
• 2015

Offshore structures might encounter several environmental and operating conditions during their lifetime of several decades. In order to predict the dynamic behavior of offshore structures, several simulation cases should be considered to deal with all the combinations of ocean environments and operating conditions. Because a sophisticated time-domain coupled dynamic analysis requires an extremely large amount of computational time to handle all the possible cases, an efficient preliminary process to prescreen the probability of severe environmental conditions can be helpful in downsizing the number of simulation cases and computational effort. In this study, a prescreening procedure to reduce the number of environmental conditions for dynamic analyses of offshore structures is proposed. For the efficiency of the procedure, frequency-domain theories were adopted to estimate the platform offset, using quasi-static analyses in line tension prediction. The results were validated by comparing with those of dynamic analysis coupled between platform and mooring lines, and reasonable agreement was observed. In addition, the characteristics of environmental conditions classified to be severe to the system were investigated through the application of the developed prescreening scheme to several actual environmental conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.111-130
• /
• 1998

We propose an imperfect repair model which depends on external effects quantified by covariates. The model is based on the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model wherefrom the probability of perfect repair is represented by a function of covariates. We are motivated by deficiency of the BP model whose stationarity prevents us from predicting dynamically the time to next failure according to external condition. Five types of function for the probability of perfect repair are proposed. This article also presents a procedure for estimating the parameter of the function for the probability of perfect repair, as well as the inherent lifetime distribution of the system, based on consecutive inter-failure times and the covariates. The estimation procedure is based on the expectation-maximization principle which is suitable to incomplete data problems. focusing on the maximization step, we derive some theorems which guarantee the existence of the solution. A Monte Carlo study is also performed to illustrate the prediction power of the model as well as to show reasonable properties of the estimates. The model reduces significantly the mean square error of the in-sample prediction. so it can be utilized in real fields for evaluating and maintaining repairable systems.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
• /
• 2008.11a
• /
• pp.1355-1360
• /
• 2008

Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an railroad car and vehicles structure. However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weldment, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test (ALT) is conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model is derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.77-85
• /
• 2010

Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of a railroad car and vehicles structure.However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weld, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, $({\Delta}{\sigma}_a)_R-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test(ALT) was conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model was derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
• /
• v.19 no.3
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2011

Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an railroad car and vehicles structure. However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weldment, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, ${\Delta}-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test (ALT) is conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model is derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistical reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.332-339
• /
• 2017

In the case of aged structures, the information of the structure is often lost after the completion of construction, and there is a great difficulty in predicting the durability life of the structure due to the lack of information on concrete formulations. In this study, the durability of concrete specimens was evaluated by various field and indoor test methods based on the core specimens collected from the field, and the durability life of the concrete structures was predicted by using the FEM analysis technique.As a result, the neutralization rate coefficient was $5.38E-6(cm^2/day)$ and the rate of progress was low. And the possibility of complex deterioration due to carbonation and salting was found to be very low.

• Advances in concrete construction
• /
• v.1 no.3
• /
• pp.201-213
• /
• 2013

While recognizing the problem of reinforcement corrosion and premature structural deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures as a combined effect of mechanical and environmental actions (carbonation, ingress of chlorides), emphasis is given on the effect of the latter, as most severe and unpredictable action. In this study, a simulation tool, based on proven predictive models utilizing principles of chemical and material engineering, for the estimation of concrete service life is applied on an existing reinforced concrete bridge (${\O}$resund Link) located in a chloride environment. After a brief introduction to the structure of the models used, emphasis is given on the physicochemical processes in concrete leading to chloride induced corrosion of the embedded reinforcement. By taking under consideration the concrete, structural and environmental properties of the bridge investigated, an accurate prediction of its service life is taking place. It was observed that the proposed, and already used, relationship of service lifetime- cover is almost identical with a mean line between the lines derived from the minimum and maximum critical values considered for corrosion initiation. Thus, an excellent agreement with the project specifications is observed despite the different ways used to approach the problem. Furthermore, different scenarios of concrete cover failure, in the case when a coating is utilized, and extreme deicing salts attack are also investigated.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.289-302
• /
• 2021

Ensuring flight safety for passengers as well as crew is the most important aspect of modern aviation, and in order to achieve this, it is necessary to be able to forecast the durability of individual components. The present contribution illustrates the results of a computational analysis to determine the possibility of analysing the prediction of bearing durability in on-board rotating equipment from the point of view of thermal fatigue.In this study, a method developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology was used for analysis, which allowed to determine the bearing durability from the flight altitude profile. Two aircraft have been chosen for analysis - a military M-28 and a civilian Embraer. As a result of the analysis were obtained: the bearing durability in on-board rotating devices, average operation time between failures, as well as failure rate. In conclusion, the practical applicability of this approach is demonstrated by the fact that even with a limited number of flight parameters, it is possible to estimate bearing durability and increase flight safety by regular inspections.