• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.231-244
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• 2005

In recent decades, significant effort has led to risk-informed improvements to regulation. Performance-based approaches also promise significant gains in efficiency (level of safety versus effort). However, significant work remains to be done before performance-based approaches realize their full potential in regulation of nuclear power plants. This paper reviews key concepts related to performance-based regulation, discusses some applications of performance-based approaches, and identifies issues that still need to be addressed. Realistic, experience-based models of licensee performance are still lacking; this makes it difficult to assess the prospective effectiveness of any given regulatory approach, in light of the performance issues that it will actually face. Also, while 'compliance' is an intuitively straightforward concept to apply within a prescriptive implementation, its analog in a performance-based approach remains unclear. An overarching theme of the paper is that formal methods of decision analysis are very helpful in developing appropriate regulatory approaches, especially performance-based ones; this theme is illustrated at several points.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.684-701
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• 2016

The Gaussian process model (GPM) is a flexible surrogate model that can be used for nonparametric regression for multivariate problems. A unique feature of the GPM is that a prediction variance is automatically provided with the regression function. In this paper, we estimate the safety margin of a nuclear power plant by performing regression on the output of best-estimate simulations of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident with sampling of safety system configuration, sequence timing, technical specifications, and thermal hydraulic parameter uncertainties. The key aspect of our approach is that the GPM regression is only performed on the dominant input variables, the safety injection flow rate and the delay time for AC powered pumps to start representing sequence timing uncertainty, providing a predictive model for the peak clad temperature during a reflood phase. Other uncertainties are interpreted as contributors to the measurement noise of the code output and are implicitly treated in the GPM in the noise variance term, providing local uncertainty bounds for the peak clad temperature. We discuss the applicability of the foregoing method to reduce the use of conservative assumptions in best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) and Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) success criteria definitions while dealing with a large number of uncertainties.

• 한국식품과학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.106-113
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• 2012

국내 식품의 수은 함량 실태를 검토하여 우리나라 국민의 중금속 노출수준에 따른 안전성을 평가하고자 하였다. 우리나라 국민 전체의 중금속 노출수준을 파악하기 위하여 Monte-Carlo simulation에 기반을 둔 확률론적(probabilistic) 위해평가를 실시하였다. 노출평가를 통해 추정된 인구집단의 식이를 통한 중금속 노출량으로부터 JECFA에서 제시한 PTWI 대비 위해도(%)를 산출하여 노출수준의 위해정도를 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 중금속 안전성 평가를 위한 대상 식품 선정은 식품의약품안전청에서 2000년대에 수행한 중금속 관련 연구과제 중 중금속 함량 원시자료가 확보된 178 식품 품목, 17,965건에 대하여 실시하였다. 식품섭취량 및 체중은 질병관리본부에서 발간한 '국민건강영양조사 4기 2차년도(2008년)' 자료를 활용하였다. 수은 함량은 농산물이 0.115(과실류)-45.448(버섯류) ${\mu}g/kg$이었고 육류는 3.723 ${\mu}g/kg$, 수산물은 9.344(극피 척색류)-194.914(어류) ${\mu}g/kg$, 가공식품에는 0.680(주류)-4.412(가공식품) ${\mu}g/kg$이었다. 식품을 통한 수은 섭취량은 4.29 ${\mu}g/kg$으로 PTWI 대비 13.6% 수준이었으며, 극단(P95) 섭취량은 12.48 ${\mu}g/day$로 PTWI 대비 39.7% 수준이었다. 따라서, 우리나라 국민의 식이를 통한 수은 노출은 위해우려가 낮은 수준이었으며 이는 제외국과 유사하거나 낮은 수준이었다.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1998년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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• pp.899-905
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• 1998

The analysis priority makings the recommendation to reduce the total core damage frequency (CDF) of Wolsong nuclear Power Plant nits 2/3/4 was Performed in this paper. In order to derive the recommendation, the sensitivity analysis of CDF on which major contributors effect m performed based on the accident quantification results during Level 1 Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Priorities were ranked in tile way that compares the CDF reduction rate with efforts required to implement those recommendations using risk matrix

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.316-322
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• 2011

국내 호소 수역 50지점에서 검출빈도가 비교적 높은 4종의 농약성분에 대해 성수기와 비성수기를 구분하여 오염도를 조사하였고, 위해지수방법과 확률론적인 방법을 적용하여 조류, 물벼룩, 어류, 양서류 등의 수생 종들에 대한 생태위해성 평가를 수행하였다. 조류 종에 대해서는 중간 위해성 수준으로, 그 외 다른 수생 종들의 위해성은 낮은 위해성 기준에 비해 훨씬 낮게 산정되어 위해성이 없는 것으로 평가되었다. 조류 종에 대한 위해성은 주로 제초제인 oxadiazon 성분에 기인하였고, 어류 및 양서류에서도 높은 위해 기여도를 보여주었다. $HC_5$값을 적용한 생태위해지수 또한 oxadiazon 성분에서만 중간 위해성 수준이었고, 이 성분이 수생 종에 위해 영향을 주는 주 기여요인으로 조사되었다. 각 농약성분의 농도가 $HC_5$값에 비해 낮은 수준으로 검출되었고, 혼합된 형태의 농약성분에 대한 결합된 생태위해확률 또한 허용기준인 5% 이하로서 생태위해성이 없는 것으로 평가되었다. 결론적으로, 농업용수를 공급하는 전국 호소 수역의 관리를 위해서는 주기적인 생태위해성평가가 필요하며, 급성독성과 노출량을 비교하는 위해지수와 확률론적 기법은 기초 위해성평가이며, 우리나라 고유 생물 종을 이용한 위해성평가, 만성독성, 환경 중 거동, 환경 요인 등을 모두 고려한 보다 높은 단계의 위해성평가 기법 연구가 반드시 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.50-58
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• 2018

Background: In terms of the Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (Level 3 PSA), ingestion of food that had been exposed to radioactive materials is important to assess the intermediate- and long-term radiological dose. Because the ingestion dose is considerably dependent upon the agricultural and dietary characteristics of each country, the reliability of the assessment results may become diminished if the characteristics of a foreign country are considered. Thus, this study intends to evaluate and analyze the ingestion dose of Korean during a severe accident by completely considering the available agricultural and dietary characteristics in Korea. Materials and Methods: This study uses COMIDA2, which is a program based on dynamic food chain model. It sets the parameters that are appropriate to Korean characteristics so that we can evaluate the inherent ingestion dose of Korean. The results were analyzed by considering the accident date and food category with regard to the $^{137}Cs$. Results and Discussion: The dose and contribution of the food category depicted distinctive differences based on the accident date. Particularly, the ingestion dose during the first and second years depicted a considerable difference by the accident date. However, after the third year, the effect of foliar absorption was negligible and exhibited a similar tendency along with the order of root uptake rate based on the food category. Conclusion: In this study, the agricultural and dietary characteristics of Korea were analyzed and evaluated the ingestion dose of Korean during a severe accident using COMIDA2. By considering the inherent characteristics of Korean, it can be determined that the results of this study will significantly contribute to the reliability of the Level 3 PSA.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.219-223
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• 2012

For an off-site consequence analysis at nuclear power plant, MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System(MACCS) II code is widely used as a software tool. In this study, the algorithm of web-based off-site consequence analysis program(OSCAP) using the MACCS II code was developed for an Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) interval extension and Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA), and verification and validation(V&V) of the program was performed. The main input data for the MACCS II code are meteorological, population distribution and source term information. However, it requires lots of time and efforts to generate the main input data for an off-site consequence analysis using the MACCS II code. For example, the meteorological data are collected from each nuclear power site in real time, but the formats of the raw data collected are different from each site. To reduce the efforts and time for risk assessments, the web-based OSCAP has an automatic processing module which converts the format of the raw data collected from each site to the input data format of the MACCS II code. The program also provides an automatic function of converting the latest population data from Statistics Korea, the National Statistical Office, to the population distribution input data format of the MACCS II code. For the source term data, the program includes the release fraction of each source term category resulting from modular accident analysis program(MAAP) code analysis and the core inventory data from ORIGEN. These analysis results of each plant in Korea are stored in a database module of the web-based OSCAP, so the user can select the defaulted source term data of each plant without handling source term input data.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.811-827
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• 2015

This paper presents a probabilistic investigation of American and European specifications (i.e., AISC and Eurocode 4) for square concrete-filled steel tubular (CFT) stub columns. The study is based on experimental results of 100 axially loaded square CFT stub columns from the literature. By comparing experimental results for ultimate loads with code-predicted column resistances, the uncertainty of resistance models is analyzed and it is found that the modeling uncertainty parameter can be described using random variables of lognormal distribution. Reliability analyses were then performed with/without considering the modeling uncertainty parameter and the safety level of the specifications is evaluated in terms of sufficient and uniform reliability criteria. Results show that: (1) The AISC design code provided slightly conservative results of square CFT stub columns with reliability indices larger than 3.25 and the uniformness of reliability indices is no better because of the quality of the resistance model; (2) The uniformness of reliability indices for the Eurocode 4 was better than that of AISC, but the reliability indices of columns designed following the Eurocode 4 were found to be quite below the target reliability level of Eurocode 4.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권10호
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• pp.3298-3313
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• 2021

The objective of this study is to estimate the occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena based on a fuzzy elicitation technique. Normally, it is difficult to determine these probabilities due to the lack of information on severe accident progression and the highly uncertain values currently in use. In this case, fuzzy set theory (FST) can be best exploited. First, questions were devised for expert elicitation on technical issues of severe accident phenomena. To deal with ambiguities and the imprecision of previously developed (reference) probabilities, fuzzy aggregation methods based on FST were employed to derive the occurrence probabilities of severe accidents via four phases: 1) choosing experts, 2) quantifying weighting factors for the experts, 3) aggregating the experts' opinions, and 4) defuzzifying the fuzzy numbers. In this way, this study obtained expert elicitation results in the form of updated occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena in the OPR-1000 plant, after which the differences between the reference probabilities and the newly acquired probabilities using fuzzy aggregation were compared, with the advantages of the fuzzy technique over other approaches explained. Lastly, the impact of applying the updated severe accident probabilities on containment integrity was quantitatively investigated in a Level 2 PSA model.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.130-140
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• 2017

Background: With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. Materials and Methods: A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. Results and Discussion: The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies.