• Title/Summary/Keyword: Learning Hybrid Modeling Method

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Enhancing Wind Speed and Wind Power Forecasting Using Shape-Wise Feature Engineering: A Novel Approach for Improved Accuracy and Robustness

  • Mulomba Mukendi Christian;Yun Seon Kim;Hyebong Choi;Jaeyoung Lee;SongHee You
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.393-405
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    • 2023
  • Accurate prediction of wind speed and power is vital for enhancing the efficiency of wind energy systems. Numerous solutions have been implemented to date, demonstrating their potential to improve forecasting. Among these, deep learning is perceived as a revolutionary approach in the field. However, despite their effectiveness, the noise present in the collected data remains a significant challenge. This noise has the potential to diminish the performance of these algorithms, leading to inaccurate predictions. In response to this, this study explores a novel feature engineering approach. This approach involves altering the data input shape in both Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) and Autoregressive models for various forecasting horizons. The results reveal substantial enhancements in model resilience against noise resulting from step increases in data. The approach could achieve an impressive 83% accuracy in predicting unseen data up to the 24th steps. Furthermore, this method consistently provides high accuracy for short, mid, and long-term forecasts, outperforming the performance of individual models. These findings pave the way for further research on noise reduction strategies at different forecasting horizons through shape-wise feature engineering.

The Credit Information Feature Selection Method in Default Rate Prediction Model for Individual Businesses (개인사업자 부도율 예측 모델에서 신용정보 특성 선택 방법)

  • Hong, Dongsuk;Baek, Hanjong;Shin, Hyunjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we present a deep neural network-based prediction model that processes and analyzes the corporate credit and personal credit information of individual business owners as a new method to predict the default rate of individual business more accurately. In modeling research in various fields, feature selection techniques have been actively studied as a method for improving performance, especially in predictive models including many features. In this paper, after statistical verification of macroeconomic indicators (macro variables) and credit information (micro variables), which are input variables used in the default rate prediction model, additionally, through the credit information feature selection method, the final feature set that improves prediction performance was identified. The proposed credit information feature selection method as an iterative & hybrid method that combines the filter-based and wrapper-based method builds submodels, constructs subsets by extracting important variables of the maximum performance submodels, and determines the final feature set through prediction performance analysis of the subset and the subset combined set.

Development of Artificial Intelligence Joint Model for Hybrid Finite Element Analysis (하이브리드 유한요소해석을 위한 인공지능 조인트 모델 개발)

  • Jang, Kyung Suk;Lim, Hyoung Jun;Hwang, Ji Hye;Shin, Jaeyoon;Yun, Gun Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.773-782
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    • 2020
  • The development of joint FE models for deep learning neural network (DLNN)-based hybrid FEA is presented. Material models of bolts and bearings in the front axle of tractor, showing complex behavior induced by various tightening conditions, were replaced with DLNN models. Bolts are modeled as one-dimensional Timoshenko beam elements with six degrees of freedom, and bearings as three-dimensional solid elements. Stress-strain data were extracted from all elements after finite element analysis subjected to various load conditions, and DLNN for bolts and bearing were trained with Tensorflow. The DLNN-based joint models were implemented in the ABAQUS user subroutines where stresses from the next increment are updated and the algorithmic tangent stiffness matrix is calculated. Generalization of the trained DLNN in the FE model was verified by subjecting it to a new loading condition. Finally, the DLNN-based FEA for the front axle of the tractor was conducted and the feasibility was verified by comparing with results of a static structural experiment of the actual tractor.

The Analysis and Design of Advanced Neurofuzzy Polynomial Networks (고급 뉴로퍼지 다항식 네트워크의 해석과 설계)

  • Park, Byeong-Jun;O, Seong-Gwon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.18-31
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    • 2002
  • In this study, we introduce a concept of advanced neurofuzzy polynomial networks(ANFPN), a hybrid modeling architecture combining neurofuzzy networks(NFN) and polynomial neural networks(PNN). These networks are highly nonlinear rule-based models. The development of the ANFPN dwells on the technologies of Computational Intelligence(Cl), namely fuzzy sets, neural networks and genetic algorithms. NFN contributes to the formation of the premise part of the rule-based structure of the ANFPN. The consequence part of the ANFPN is designed using PNN. At the premise part of the ANFPN, NFN uses both the simplified fuzzy inference and error back-propagation learning rule. The parameters of the membership functions, learning rates and momentum coefficients are adjusted with the use of genetic optimization. As the consequence structure of ANFPN, PNN is a flexible network architecture whose structure(topology) is developed through learning. In particular, the number of layers and nodes of the PNN are not fixed in advance but is generated in a dynamic way. In this study, we introduce two kinds of ANFPN architectures, namely the basic and the modified one. Here the basic and the modified architecture depend on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial in each layer of PNN structure. Owing to the specific features of two combined architectures, it is possible to consider the nonlinear characteristics of process system and to obtain the better output performance with superb predictive ability. The availability and feasibility of the ANFPN are discussed and illustrated with the aid of two representative numerical examples. The results show that the proposed ANFPN can produce the model with higher accuracy and predictive ability than any other method presented previously.