• 제목/요약/키워드: Large-Price Change

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기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구 (A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique)

  • 송진호;최흥식;김선웅
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • 상품자산(Commodity Asset)은 주식, 채권과 같은 전통자산의 포트폴리오의 안정성을 높이기 위한 대체투자자산으로 자산배분의 형태로 투자되고 있지만 주식이나 채권 자산에 비해 자산배분에 대한 모델이나 투자전략에 대한 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 최근 발전한 기계학습(Machine Learning) 연구는 증권시장의 투자부분에서 적극적으로 활용되고 있는데, 기존 투자모델의 한계점을 개선하는 좋은 성과를 나타내고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 기계학습의 한 기법인 SVM(Support Vector Machine)을 이용하여 상품자산에 투자하는 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 기계학습을 활용한 상품자산에 관한 기존 연구는 주로 상품가격의 예측을 목적으로 수행되었고 상품을 투자자산으로 자산배분에 관한 연구는 찾기 힘들었다. SVM을 통한 예측대상은 투자 가능한 대표적인 4개의 상품지수(Commodity Index)인 골드만삭스 상품지수, 다우존스 UBS 상품지수, 톰슨로이터 CRB상품지수, 로저스 인터내셔날 상품지수와 대표적인 상품선물(Commodity Futures)로 구성된 포트폴리오 그리고 개별 상품선물이다. 개별상품은 에너지, 농산물, 금속 상품에서 대표적인 상품인 원유와 천연가스, 옥수수와 밀, 금과 은을 이용하였다. 상품자산은 전반적인 경제활동 영역에 영향을 받기 때문에 거시경제지표를 통하여 투자모델을 설정하였다. 주가지수, 무역지표, 고용지표, 경기선행지표 등 19가지의 경제지표를 이용하여 상품지수와 상품선물의 등락을 예측하여 투자성과를 예측하는 연구를 수행한 결과, 투자모델을 활용하여 상품선물을 리밸런싱(Rebalancing)하는 포트폴리오가 가장 우수한 성과를 나타냈다. 또한, 기존의 대표적인 상품지수에 투자하는 것 보다 상품선물로 구성된 포트폴리오에 투자하는 것이 우수한 성과를 얻었으며 상품선물 중에서도 에너지 섹터의 선물을 제외한 포트폴리오의 성과가 더 향상된 성과를 나타남을 증명하였다. 본 연구에서는 포트폴리오 성과 향상을 위해 기존에 널리 알려진 전통적 주식, 채권, 현금 포트폴리오에 상품자산을 배분하고자 할 때 투자대상은 상품지수에 투자하는 것이 아닌 개별 상품선물을 선정하여 자체적 상품선물 포트폴리오를 구성하고 그 방법으로는 기간마다 강세가 예측되는 개별 선물만을 골라서 포트폴리오를 재구성하는 것이 효과적인 투자모델이라는 것을 제안한다.

자동차산업(自動車産業)의 하도급제(下都給制) 실태분석(實態分析) (Analysis of Actual Condition on Subcontracting System in Korean Automotive Industry)

  • 김주훈;조관행
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.69-96
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    • 1991
  • 1987년의 민주화조치(民主化措置) 이후 발생한 임금(賃金)의 급격한, 그리고 지속적인 상승은 비용우위(費用優位)의 약화를 야기하였고 이에 더하여 3저기간(低期間)의 무역수지흑자(貿易收支黑子)는 원화(貨)의 절상(切上)을 유발하여 우리 상품(商品)의 수출단가상승(輸出單價上昇)을 증폭시켰다. 새로운 경쟁우위(競爭優位)를 발굴하는 것이 우리 경제(經濟)의 당면과제(當面課題)인바 당분간은 비용우위유지(費用優位維持)가 우리 산업(産業)의 기본경쟁전략(基本競爭戰略)이 되어야 할 것이다. 이때의 비용우위(費用優位)는 기술(技術)의 뒷받침을 통하여 제품단가(製品單價)를 낮추는 것을 의미하며 이는 과거 저임금(低賃金)에 의존하던 비용우위유지(費用優位維持)와는 다른 것이다. 구체적(具體的) 방안(方案)의 하나로 기업간(企業間) 생산분업(生産分業)의 효율적(效率的) 조직화(組織化)를 생각해 볼 수 있다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)의 목적(目的)은 기업간(企業間) 생산분업(生産分業)으로서의 하도급(下都給)이 어떠한 형태(形態)로 운영되고 있는지 그리고 최근의 경제여건변화(經濟與件變化)에 대응하여 어떠한 방향(方向)으로 진전되고 있는지를 파악해 보는 데 있다. 구체적으로 모기업(母企業)과 수급기업간(受給企業間)의 교섭력(交涉力)의 차이, 수급기업(受給企業)의 모기업(母企業)에 대한 기술력(技術力)의 기여(寄與) 정도, 대외경쟁력(對外競爭力)의 약화(弱化)에 대응한 양자간(兩者間)의 협력관계(協力關係) 형성(形成), 새로운 경쟁우위(競爭優位)를 회복하기 위한 인식형성(認識形成)과 구체적 방안(方案)에 대한 견해(見解) 등을 하도급제(下都給制) 생산방식(生産方式)에 참여하고 있는 개별기업(個別企業)들에 대한 설문조사(設問調査)를 통하여 파악해 보고자 하였다. 설문조사(設問調査)의 결과(結果)에 따르면 자동차산업(自動車産業)의 하도급(下都給)이 경쟁력회복(競爭力回復)에 긍정적(肯定的)으로 작용(作用)하고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

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여뀌과 이형경식물의 Dinorphism과 Bisexuality의 변화 (STUDIES ON THE DIMORPHISM AND TRANSITION OF BISEXUALITY OF HETEROSTYLOUS POLYGONACEAE)

  • Harn, Chang-Yawl
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.6-18
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    • 1960
  • The present experiments were designed in order to clarify the differences between the long and short styled plants and the transgressive gradition in the degree of dimorphism among the three heterostylous species of the Polygonus, P. japonica, F. esculentum, and P. senticosa, based on investigations regarding the floral structure, ecological and physiological traits, the results of which are summarized as follows: (1) P. japonica, although it exhibits typical dimorphism, has undergone so high a differentiation between long and short styled that its long styled individuals behave as if they were female; and short styled individuals as if male. In long-styled individuals, filament, anther, and pollen grains show signs of degeneration, most of the pollen being abortive. On the other hand, in short styled individuals, the filament, anther, and pollen grains have attained remarkable development; the pollen grians are large and fertile. In short-plant the fertilized flowers readily drop off in every stage of their embryo development. This species has completely lost the self-fertile property, which is characteristic of the non-dimorphic Polygonum genus. Although this specsei typically exhibits the physiological characteristics of the non-dimorphic Polygonum genus. Although this specisei typically exhibits the physiological characteristics of dimorphism in controlled pollination, the short-styled individuals bear no seed in nature, thus misleading taxonomists to idenfity the short-styled plant as male. 2) The morphological feature of the flower organ of P. senticosa obviously indicates definite dimorphism. Physiologically, however, no differentiation towards dimorphism was observed, the species still retaining, both in long and short-individuals, the self-fertile property common to the Polygonum genus. Elaborate examinations revealed that regardless of the modes of pollination, both fertiization and seed setting flourish, no differentiation betwen legitimate and illegitimate unions being recognizable. This sort of physiological property has not been observed in the investigations of other heterostylous plants. It is assumed that this species is differentiated structurally into dimorphism, but not yet physiologically. In nature, however, this plant would have more opportunities to be cross-pollinated, i.e., legitimately combined, than self-pollinated because of the development of two forms of flowers. 3) In terms of heterostylism, the F. esculentum just occupies the intermediate position between P. japonica and P. senticosa structurally, ecologically, and physiologically. Doescription of some of the physiological behavior of the plant will suffice to demonstrate the above facts. While P. japonica has completely lost its self-fertile property, P. senticosa still retains it wolly. In F. esculentum 2-6% of self-fertility is the result in illegitimate combination. There occur occasionally hereditary self fertile individuals among some of the F. or 20 min. irradiation plot, when they reach any stage of the same bacterial population. In addition to this increase of total population in the plots with the more dose of UV light irradiation, it seems that the more dose of UV light irradiation is the more shortened the generation time of Azotobacter. Therefore, it is clear that variation of reproductive rate must be, mere or less, due to the genetic effects induced by UV light irradiation. On the other hand, the lag phase or logarithmic growth phase in nonirradiated culture is shortened prominently, and this must be due to the difference in bacterial number of the original inoculm. The generation time of Azotobacter is shortened by exogeneous treatment of nuclei acid derivatives, and the degree is greater in case of DNA derivatives than RNA dervatives. W.H. Price reported that the rate of ribose nucleic acid to protein in Staphylococcus muscae is proportional to the generation time: that is the faster the cell can form ribose nucleic acid, the more rapid its growth. This explains the shortening of generation time by exogeneous RNA derivatives in this work reasonably. On the other hand, it is well known that the desoxyribose nuclic acid content per cell is constant and independent of the generation time. A.D. Laren and W.N. Takahashi reported that the infectious RNA from TMV is 6 times as sensitive to inactivation by UV as it is in the form of intact virus, and that inactivation of infectious TMV involves onlu a local change on RNA chain. But, the effect of exogeneous DNA in this work suggests that irradiated living cell which cotain DNA bring about some change on DNA moleculs as well as RNA molecules. And if the mutagenic effects of UV take into consideration, it is very reasonable. Therefore, it is clear that the variation of the generation time by UV irradiation is, more or less, due to the genetic effects. Therefore, it seems that the shortness of the average lifewpan of Azotobacter by UV irradiation is resulted not only from the influence of the environmental conditions, but also from the variation of genetic factor of the individual.

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소셜커머스에서 거래의 특성이 분배적 정의와 거래 의도에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Transaction Characteristics on Distributive Justice and Purchase Intention in the Social Commerce)

  • 방영석;이동주
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2013
  • Social commerce has been gaining explosive popularity, with typical examples of the model such as Groupon and Level Up. Both local business owners and consumers can benefit from this new e-commerce model. Local business owners have a chance to access potential customers and promote their products in a way that could not have otherwise been easily possible, and consumers can enjoy discounted offerings. However, questions have been increasingly raised about the value and future of the social commerce model. A recent survey shows that about a third of 324 business owners who ran a daily-deal promotion in Groupon went behind. Furthermore, more than half of the surveyed merchants did not express enthusiasm about running the promotion again. The same goes for the case in Korea, where more than half of the surveyed clients reported no significant change or even decrease in profits compared to before the use of social commerce model. Why do local business owners fail to exploit the benefits from the promotions and advertisements through the social commerce model and to make profits? Without answering this question, the model would fall under suspicion and even its sustainability might be challenged. This study aims to look into problems in the current social commerce transactions and provide implications for the social commerce model, so that the model would get a foothold for next growth. Drawing on justice theory, this study develops theoretical arguments for the effects of transaction characteristics on consumers' distributive justice and purchase intention in the social commerce. Specifically, this study focuses on two characteristics of social commerce transactions-the discount rate and the purchase rate of products-and investigates their effects on consumers' perception of distributive justice for discounted transactions in the social commerce and their perception of distributive justice for regular-priced transactions. This study also examines the relationship between distributive justice and purchase intention. We conducted an online experiment and gathered data from 115 participants to test the hypotheses. Each participant was randomly assigned to one of nine manipulated scenarios of social commerce transactions, which were generated based on the combination of three levels of purchase rate (high, medium, and low) and three levels of discount rate (high, medium, and low). We conducted MANOVA and post-hoc ANOVA to test hypotheses about the relationships between the transaction characteristics (purchase rate and discount rate) and distributive justice for each of the discounted transaction and the regular-priced transaction. We also employed a PLS analysis to test relations between distributive justice and purchase intentions. Analysis results show that a higher discount rate increases distributive justice for the discounted transaction but decreases distributive justice for the regular-priced transaction. This, coupled with the result that distributive justice for each type of transaction has a positive effect on the corresponding purchase intention, implies that a large discount in the social commerce may be helpful for attracting consumers, but harmful to the business after the promotion. However, further examination reveals curvilinear effects of the discount rate on both types of distributive justice. Specifically, we find distributive justice for the discounted transaction increases concavely as the discount rate increases while distributive justice for the regular-priced transaction decreases concavely with the dscount rate. This implies that there exists an appropriate discount rate which could promote the discounted transaction while not hurting future business of regular-priced transactions. Next, the purchase rate is found to be a critical factor that facilitates the regular-priced transaction. It has a convexly positive influence on distributive justice for the transaction. Therefore, an increase of the rate beyond some threshold would lead to a substantial level of distributive justice for the regular-priced transaction, threrby boosting future transactions. This implies that social commerce firms and sellers should employ various non-price stimuli to promote the purchase rate. Finally, we find no significant relationship between the purchase rate and distributive justice for the discounted transaction. Based on the above results, we provide several implications with future research directions.

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Global Rice Production, Consumption and Trade: Trends and Future Directions

  • Bhandari, Humnath
    • 한국작물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국작물학회 2019년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.5-5
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this paper are (i) to analyze past trends and future directions of rice production, consumption and trade across the world and (ii) to discuss emerging challenges and future directions in the global rice industry. Rice is a staple food of over half of the world's 7.7 billion people. It is an important economic, social, political, and cultural commodity in most Asian countries. Rice is the $1^{st}$ most widely consumed, $2^{nd}$ largely produced, and $3^{rd}$ most widely grown food crop in the world. It was cultivated by 144 million farms in over 100 countries with harvested area of over 163 million ha producing about 745 million tons paddy in 2018. About 90% of the total rice is produced in Asia. China and India, the biggest rice producers, account for over half of the world's rice production. Between 1960 and 2018, world rice production increased over threefold from 221 to 745 million tons (2.1% per year) due to area expansion from 120 to 163 million ha (0.5% per year) and paddy yield increase from 1.8 to 4.6 t/ha (1.6% per year). The Green Revolution led massive increase in rice production prevented famines, provided food for millions of people, reduced poverty and hunger, and improved livelihoods of millions of Asians. The future increase in rice production must come from yield increase as the scope for area expansion is limited. Rice is the most widely consumed food crop. The world's average per capita milled rice consumption is 64 kilograms providing 19% of daily calories. Asia accounted for 84% of global consumption followed by Africa (7%), South America (3%), and the Middle East (2%). Asia's per capita rice consumption is 100 kilograms per year providing 28% of daily calories. The global and Asian per capita consumption increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but stable afterward. The per capita rice consumption is expected to decline in Asia but increase outside Asia especially in Africa in the future. The total milled rice consumption was about 490 million tons in 2018 and projected to reach 550 million tons by 2030 and 590 million tons by 2040. Rice is thinly traded in international market because it is a highly protected commodity. Only about 9% of the total production is traded in global rice market. However, the volume of global rice trade has increased over six-fold from 7.5 to 46.5 million tons between the 1960s and 2018. A relatively small number of exporting countries interact with a large number of importing countries. The top five rice exporting countries are India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and China accounting for 74% of the global rice export. The top five rice importing countries are China, Philippines, Nigeria, European Union and Saudi Arabia accounting for 26% of the global rice import. Within rice varieties, Japonica rice accounts for the highest share of the global rice trade (about 12%) followed by Basmati rice (about 10%). The high concentration of exports to a few countries makes international rice market vulnerable to supply disruptions in exporting countries, leading to higher world prices of rice. The export price of Thai 5% broken rice increased from 198 US$/ton in 2000 to 421 US$/ton in 2018. The volumes of trade and rice prices in the global market are expected to increase in the future. The major future challenges of the rice industry are increasing demand due to population growth, rising demand in Africa, economic growth and diet diversification, competition for natural resources (land and water), labor scarcity, climate change and natural hazards, poverty and inequality, hunger and malnutrition, urbanization, low income in rice farming, yield saturation, aging of farmers, feminization of agriculture, health and environmental concerns, improving value chains, and shifting donor priorities away from agriculture. At the same time, new opportunities are available due to access to new technologies, increased investment by the private sector, and increased global partnership. More investment in rice research and development is needed to develop and disseminate innovative technologies and practices to overcome problems and ensure food and nutrition security of the future population.

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양파·마늘 생산성 예측 모델 개발을 위한 텍스트마이닝 기법 활용 생육 및 수량 관련 문헌 분석 (Analysis of Literatures Related to Crop Growth and Yield of Onion and Garlic Using Text-mining Approaches for Develop Productivity Prediction Models)

  • 김진희;김대준;서보훈;김광수
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.374-390
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    • 2021
  • 농산물 중에서도 노지채소는 생육특성상 기상요건의 변화에 민감하게 반응한다. 온난화로 인한 노지 채소류의 급격한 재배적지 및 생산성 변동의 대응 방안으로 작물모형을 활용한 연구가 활발히 진행되어 왔으며 신뢰도 높은 생산성 예측을 위해 관련된 다양한 요인에 대한 분석이 필요한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 정밀한 작물 생육 모형의 개발에 앞서 대표적인 노지 채소 작물인 마늘과 양파를 대상으로 문헌 조사를 수행하여 생육 및 생산성과 관련된 모형 개발 연구 동향을 분석하였다. 또한, 작물의 생육 또는 생산성을 예측하는 모형에 관한 문헌들을 분류하여 모형 개발을 위한 시사점을 파악하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 문헌이 수록된 데이터베이스를 이용하여 키워드 조합으로 검색하여 얻어진 관련 문헌들을 수집하였으며, 텍스트마이닝 기법 중 워드클라우드와 의미연결망을 활용하여 수집된 논문들에서 나타난 연구 동향을 분석하였다. 또한 각각의 문헌들을 분석하여 양파와 마늘의 생육 및 수량에 영향을 미치는 요소를 탐색하였다. 그 결과 국내외 모두 식량작물인 벼에 비해 노지채소는 문헌 건수가 월등히 적었다. 또한 텍스트마이닝을 통한 분석결과 연구동향의 경우 기후변화와 원격탐사 등이 주로 검색되었으며, 작물생육 관련인자로는 기온, 관수 등이 많은 것으로 조사되었다. 문헌 분석을 통해 확인된 마늘과 양파의 생산성에 영향을 미치는 조건들은 환경 및 재배요인에 따라 다양하게 나타났는데, 토양 조건의 경우 토양 무기 성분, pH 농도 및 토양 수분 등이, 생산성과 관련된 재배관리 조건으로는 파종 시기, 품종, 종자처리 방식, 관수간격, 시비량 및 비료 성분 등이 주요 인자로 분류되었다. 기상 조건의 경우, 기온, 강수량, 일사량 및 습도 등이 다수의 문헌에서 주요 인자로 사용되었다. 본 연구의 결과들은 차후 추가적인 작물모형 개발에 활용할 수 있는 핵심적인 입력 요소를 파악하기 위해 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

일본의 중견기업에 관한 연구 : 현황과 특징, 정책을 중심으로 (A Study on Medium-Sized Enterprises of Japan)

  • 강철구;김현성;김현철
    • 중소기업연구
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2010
  • 본고에서는 일본 중견기업의 위상, 특징, 관련 정책을 검토함으로써 우리나라에서의 중견기업 정책의 방향을 모색하고자 한다. 일본의 경쟁우위업종인 기계, 전자부품업의 출하와 고용비중은 여타 업종보다 높아, 그 저변에 두터운 중견기업이 존재하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 일본의 중견기업 육성정책은 연구개발과 환경대책을 위한 기업간 제휴 유도라는 측면에서 간접적으로 지원하고 있다. 우리나라도 특정 정책사업에 있어서 기업간 협력 유도를 통하여 중견기업을 육성할 수 있을 것이다.

국제프랜차이징 연구요소 및 연구방향 (Research Framework for International Franchising)

  • 김주영;임영균;심재덕
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.61-118
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 국내외 프랜차이즈의 해외진출에 대한 연구들을 바탕으로 국제프랜차이징연구의 전체적인 연구체계를 세워보고, 연구체계를 형성하고 있는 연구요인들을 확인하여 각 연구요소별로 이루어지는 연구주제와 내용을 살펴보고, 앞으로의 연구주제들을 제안하고자 한다. 주요한 연구요소들은 국제프랜차이징의 동기 및 환경 요소과 진출의사결정, 국제프랜차이징의 진입양식 및 발전전략, 국제프랜차이징의 운영전략 및 국제프랜차이징의 성과이다. 이외에도 국제프랜차이징 연구에 적용할 수 있는 대리인이론, 자원기반이론, 거래비용이론, 조직학습이론 및 해외진출이론들을 설명하였다. 또한 국제프랜차이징연구에서 보다 중점적으로 개발해야 할 질적, 양적 방법론을 소개하였으며, 마지막으로 국내연구의 동향을 정리하여 추후의 연구방향을 종합적으로 정리하였다.

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