• 농촌계획
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2003

As a pre-step research to make land-use planning in the region level, this study aims to analyze some probability pattern representing transition probabilities from farmland to others using the sequential detailed digital land-use maps. Kinki and Chubu regions of Japan, which have Osaka and Nagoya cities as their center places respectively, were selected as test regions in this study. The 10m grid land-use maps for four time series at every 5 year from 1977 to 1992 were used. In this study, the regions were divided into three sub-areas 10km, 20km, and 30km according to distance from center cities, respectively. The correlation coefficient (CC) between sub-areas with same distance in the two regions was calculated to analyze whether or not the two regions have common points in the pattern of land-use conversion probability from farmland to other types. The probability distribution of the converted areas which were moved to the urbanized area (residential, commercial, industrial, road, park and public facility areas) was about $40{\sim}70%$ for both all periods and sub-areas. According to distance from city centers, the probability moved to the urbanized area was about 60% at 10km area, and 40% at the 30km area, which means that the values we decreased gradually, while in the case moved to the forest and the etc areas, the values were increased slightly. The CC analysis from the paddy field and the dry field to the others separately showed that there is high correlation in the probability pattern between the two regions.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.77-87
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• 2019

The first grade zones in Ecology and Nature Map are important regions for the conservation of the ecosystem, but it would be degraded by various anthropogenic factors. This study analyzes the relationship between potential land cover change and degradation of the first grade zones using land cover transition probability. As a result, it was shown that most of the first grade zones with degraded were converted from forest to urban(5.1%), cropland(27.2%), barren(11.0%) and grass(27.5%) in Gangwon and forest to urban(18.0%), cropland(15.3%), grass(28.4%), barren(12.3%) in Gyeonggi. The result of the logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of degradation of first grade zone was higher in area where was expected the higher probability of urban, cropland, barren, grass transition. The barren transition probability was the most influential and grass was the next highest. There were regional differences in the probability of urban transition and cropland transition, and the urban transition probability was more influential in Gyeonggi-do. This is because development pressure such as housing site development is high in Gyeonggi-do. Due to the limitations of the Act on Mountain Districts Management, even in the first grade zones, the grade may be degraded. Therefore, if Ecology and Nature Map are used to prevent deforestation or conversion of mountainous districts, it may contribute to the preservation of the ecosystem.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.85-94
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 1996년, 2006년, 2016년의 서울과 주변지역의 도시화로 인한 피복변화를 바탕으로 2026년의 피복 변화를 예측하였다. 기초 자료로 Landsat 영상을, 미래 예측을 위해 MLP와 MCA를 융합하여 연구지역에 대해 적용하였다. MLP에서는 1996년과 2006년의 피복도를 이용하여 하부 모델과 전이 유발 인자를 설정하여 피복 전이 잠재력을 산출하고, MCA를 이용하여 피복 전이 확률 계산하여 2016년의 피복도를 생성하였다. 이는 Landsat에서 얻어진 2016년 피복도와 비교하여, 모델 검증을 실시하고, Landsat에서 얻어진 2006년과 2016년 피복도를 이용하여 2026년도의 미래 피복을 예측하였다. 결과로 1996년부터 2016년까지 피복변화의 대부분은 나지, 초지(식생 혼합)로부터 개발지로의 변화가 두드러졌으며, 2026년도의 미래 피복도 나지와 초지로부터 개발지로의 변화가 여전히 진행되고 있는 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구는 MLP-MCA 방법으로 서울 및 주변 지역에 대한 미래 피복 변화 예측에 처음으로 적용했다는 측면에서 의미가 있다.