• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권6호
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• pp.61-75
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• 2021

This study aims to assess the changes in crop water requirement of paddy and upland according to future climate and land use changes scenarios. Changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and precipitation are factors that lower the stability of agricultural water supply, and predicting the changes in crop water requirement in consideration of climate change can prevent the waste of limited water resources. Meanwhile, due to the recent changes in the agricultural product consumption structure, the area of paddy and upland has been changing, and it is necessary to consider future land use changes in establishing an appropriate water use plan. Climate change scenarios were derived from the four GCMs of the CMIP6, and climate data were extracted under two future scenarios, namely SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Future land use changes were predicted using the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model. Crop water requirement in paddy was calculated as the sum of evapotranspiration and infiltration based on the water balance in a paddy field, and crop water requirement in upland was estimated as the evapotranspiration value by applying Penman-Monteith method. It was found that the crop water requirement for both paddy and upland increased as we go to the far future, and the degree of increase and variability by time showed different results for each GCM. The results derived from this study can be used as basic data to develop sustainable water resource management techniques considering future watershed environmental changes.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.43-58
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• 2015

급격한 경제 성장과 인구 증가는 온실가스 배출량을 급증시키고 있으며 이는 기후변화를 가속화시키고 있다. IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 보고서는 온실가스가 2000년부터 2030년까지 최대 90%까지 증가할 것이라고 보고하고 있다. 이에 전 세계에서는 기후변화에 대한 피해를 줄이기 위해 기후변화 적응과 완화 대책 수립이 중요시되고 있으며, 우리나라에는 기후변화 대응 정책으로'저탄소 녹색성장(Low Carbon Green Growth)'을 시행하였다. 지자체에서는 친환경적이며 지속가능한 발전을 위한 도시계획을 조성하기 위해 다양한 연구를 수행해왔다. 특히, 기후변화에 가장 크게 영향을 줄 수 있는 토지이용변화에 대한 연구가 활발하게 수행되어지고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 제주도를 대상으로 경제적, 지리적 특성을 기반한 토지이용 균형 모델을 적용하여 주거 토지이용변화와 인구 밀도를 예측하였다. 먼저, 주거부분의 토지이용변화를 보기 위해, 3가지 유형의 시나리오를 구축하였다. 시나리오는 현재와 동일한 환경을 갖는 Dispersion 시나리오, 기후변화 적응 대책을 반영한 Adaptation 시나리오, 기후변화 적응과 완화 대책을 동시에 반영한 Combined 시나리오이다. 그 결과, 전반적으로 Dispersion 시나리오에서 Combined 시나리오로 갈수록 주거면적과 인구밀도가 줄어들었다. 이후 주거면적과 인구밀도 결과를 통해 시나리오별 주거용 에너지 소비량과 예상 인명 피해액을 산정하였다. 그 결과, 전반적으로 Dispersion 시나리오에서 Combined 시나리오로 갈수록 에너지 소비량과 예상 인명 피해액은 줄어들었다. 본 연구에서 제시한 토지이용균형모델을 적용하여 시나리오별 주거부분 토지이용과 인구 밀도 변화 파악은 향후 기후변화 안정성을 확보하고 완화할 수 있는 환경적 도시계획을 수립하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.25-33
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• 2008

To investigate the hydrologic impacts of climate changes on dam inflow for Soyanggangdam watershed $(2694.4km^2)$ of northeastern South Korea, SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) model and the climate change results of CCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2 were adopted. By the CA-Markov technique, future land use changes were estimated using the three land cover maps (1985, 1990, 2000) classified by Landsat TM satellite images. NDVI values for 2050 and 2100 land uses were estimated from the relationship of NDVI-Temperature linear regression derived from the observed data (1998-2002). Before the assessment, the SLURP model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1998-2001) dam inflow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 to 0.77. In case of A2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 49.7 % and 25.0 % comparing with the dam inflow of 2000, and in case of B2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 45.3 % and 53.0 %, respectively. The results showed that the impact of land use change covered 2.3 % to 4.9 % for the dam inflow change.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.77-86
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• 2012

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.257-266
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• 2014

This study aims to understand abnormal climate caused by impacts of climate change and to suggest the direction of urban planning focusing on adaptation to climate change. The study consists of theory consideration and case study(Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle). As a result, the main impacts of climate change faced by urban areas are heat wave, precipitation, and drought. To prevent these impacts, it is important to prepare methods of urban planning as followings: planning for land use, park and green considering the climate patterns, establishing and managing water resources systems similar to the nature, securing renewable energy resources, and transportation facilities and exterior space with proof against climate. It is especially necessary to introduce infrastructures related to storm water, green roof, shading tree planting, green space, and permeable pavement. Finally, in order to realize urban planning for adaptation to climate change, it is needed to make the detailed and specific goal and strategy for the climate change adaptation plan and to extend the scope from the goals to an action plan, a detailed plan, and a design guideline.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.295-304
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• 2017

This study compared and analyzed the construction of a land use change matrix for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) land use, land use change, and forestry area (LULUCF). We used National Forest Inventory (NFI) permanent sample plots (with a sample intensity of 4 km) and permanent sample plots with 500 m sampling intensity. The land use change matrix was formed using the point sampling method, Level-2 Land Cover Maps, and forest aerial photographs (3rd and 4th series). The land use change matrix using the land cover map indicated that the annual change in area was the highest for forests and cropland; the cropland area decreased over time. We evaluated the uncertainty of the land use change matrix. Our results indicated that the forest land use, which had the most sampling, had the lowest uncertainty, while the grassland and wetlands had the highest uncertainty and the least sampling. The uncertainty was higher for the 4 km sampling intensity than for the 500 m sampling intensity, which indicates the importance of selecting the appropriate sample size when constructing a national land use change matrix.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.327-327
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• 2020

Increase in Earth's surface temperature, higher rainfall intensity rate, and rapid changes in land cover are just some of the most evident effects of climate change. Flooding, and river sedimentation are two inevitable natural processes in our environment, and both issues poses great risks in the dam industry when not addressed properly. River sedimentation is a significant issue that causes reservoir deposition, and thus causes the dam to gradually lose its ability to store water. In this study, the long-term effects of climate change on the sediment discharge in Yongdam Dam watershed is analyzed through the utilization of SWAT, a semi-distributed watershed model. Based from the results of this study, an abrupt increase on the annual sediment inflow trend in Yongdam Dam watershed was observed; which may suggests that due to the effects of climate change, higher rainfall intensity, land use and land cover changes, the sedimentation rate also increased. An efficient sedimentation management should consider the increasing trend in sedimentation rate due to the effects of climate change.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.120-139
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent)와 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 및 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere)시나리오를 사용하여 미래 농지이용 변화와 기후변화가 관개 필요수량에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 논산시(55,517.9ha)의 농지이용 항목으로 논, 밭, 시설재배지를 고려하고 DIROM (Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model)을 이용해 탑정저수지 수혜구역(5,713.3ha)에 대한 관개 필요수량(Irrigation Water Requirement, IWR)을 추정하였다. CLUE-s를 이용한 미래 농지이용 변화를 모의하기 위해 환경부의 2007년, 2013년, 2019년의 토지피복도 6개 항목(수역, 시가지, 논, 밭, 산림, 시설재배지)을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 2100년은 2013년에 비해 논과 밭이 5.0%, 7.6% 감소했으며, 시설재배지는 24.7% 증가하는 것으로 전망되었다. 미래의 농지이용과 기후변화를 모두 고려한 경우의 RCP 4.5 및 RCP 8.5 모두 2090s(2090~2099) IWR은 미래 기후변화만 고려한 경우에 비해 논과 밭에서는 각각 2.1%, 1.0% 감소하고 시설재배지에서는 11.4% 증가하는 것으로 전망되었다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.329-337
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• 2017

In this study, land-use changes from 1990 to 2010 in Jeju Island by different approaches were produced and compared to suggest a more efficient approach. In a sample-based method, land-use changes were analyzed with different sampling intensities of 2 km and 4 km grids, which were distributed by the fifth National Forest Inventory (NFI5), and their uncertainty was assessed. When comparing the uncertainty for different sampling intensities, the one with the grid of 2 km provided more precise information; ranged from 6.6 to 31.3% of the relative standard error for remaining land-use categories for 20 years. On the other hand, land-cover maps by a wall-to-wall approach were produced by using time-series Landsat imageries. Forest land increased from 34,194 ha to 44,154 ha for 20 years, where about 69% of total forest land were remained as forest land and 19% and 8% within forest lands were converted to grassland and cropland, respectively. In the case of grassland, only about 40% of which were remained as grassland and most of the area were converted to forest land and cropland. When comparing land-cover area by land-use categories with land-use statistics, forest areas were underestimated while areas of cropland and grassland were overestimated. In order to analyze land use change, it is necessary to establish a clear and consistent definition on the six land use classification.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.83-100
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• 1995

한국의 수도권 지역에서는 토지이용의 변화가 근래 급격하게 이루어지면서 국지기후에도 변화가 나타나고 있다. 본 연구는 지난 20년간의 토지이용변화의 특성 및 규모를 분석하여 이 변 화가 국지기후에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자 하였다. 연구지역에서의 도시화는 상당히 빠른 속도 로 진행되고 있어 현시점에서는 토지이용변화의 규모를 지도나 문헌조사 만으로는 충분히 조사할 수 없기 때문에 본 연구에서는 Landset 자료를 이용하여 토지이용 변화의 양상 및 규모를 밝히 고,기상자료(온도, 습도, 안개 등)의 시계열적 분석으로 토지이용의 변화가 국지기후에 미치는 영 향을 파악하고자 하였다. 그러나 측후소에서 관측된 기상자료 만으로는 기상요소의 공간적 분포 를 이해할 수가 없기 때문에 NOAA AVHRR 열적외선 자료를 이용하여 온도의 공간분포를 규명 하고, GIS 기법을 활용하여 시각적 효과를 높이므로써 지역정책을 수립할 때 의사결정에 도움을 주고자 하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 수도권지역의 녹지는 지난 20년간(1972-1992)에 94%에서 62% 로 감소된 데 반하여 도시적 토지이용은 4%에서 39%로 크게 증가되었다. 토지이용의 변화에 따 른 생물자원의 감소는 열수지 및 수분수지에 변화를 초래하여 국지기후 내지 미기후에 영향을 미 칠 것을 암시하고 있으며, 실제로 연구지역내의 국지기후는 점차 건조화.온난화 추세를 보이고 있 다. 그러므로 인간의 활동이 국지기후에 미치는 바람직하지 못한 영향과 위험한 오염을 효율적으 로 저감시키려면 토지이용의 변화가 환경에 미치는 영향에 관한 보다 깊은 연구가 절실히 요청된다.