• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.333-341
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• 2004

This paper describes not only the complexities of LNG business including shipping sector but also its own current environmental changes. Furthermore, system dynamics (VENSIM analysis) as a methodology is introduced to analyze the potential LNG shipping market in the future. As a result of the VENSIM analysis, potentiality of the spot LNG shipping market is systematically established in connection with embodiment of the spot LNG market. This paper suggests three methods, which are centered on newbuildings of ships, for the shippers to prepare for the spot LNG shipping market on the basis that maritime economics can make a direct contribution to the shippers' business decision-making.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.385-393
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• 2004

This paper describes not only the complexities of LNG business including shipping sector but also its own current environmental changes. Furthermore, system dynamics (VENSIM analysis) as a methodology is introduced to analyze the potential LNG shipping market in the future. As a result of the VENSIM analysis, potentiality of the spot LNG shipping market is systematically established in connection with embodiment of the spot LNG market. This paper suggests three methods, which are centered on newbuildings of ships, for the shippers to prepare for the spot LNG shipping market on the basis that maritime economics can make a direct contribution to the shippers' business decision-making.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.187-194
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• 2022

LNG is known as the transitional energy source for the future eco-friendly, attracting enormous market attention due to global eco-friendly regulations, Covid-19 Pandemic, Russia-Ukraine War. In addition, since new LNG suppliers such as the U.S. and Australia are also diversifying, the LNG spot market is expected to grow. On the other hand, research on the LNG transportation market has been marginalized. Therefore, this study attempted to predict short-term LNG 160K spot rates and compared the prediction performance between artificial neural networks and the ARIMA model. As a result of this paper, while it was difficult to determine the superiority and superiority of ARIMA and artificial neural networks, considering the relative free of ANN's contraints, we confirmed the feasibility of ANN in LNG 160K spot rate prediction. This study has academic significance as the first attempt to apply an artificial neural network to forecasting LNG 160K spot rates and are expected to contribute significantly in practice in that they can improve the quality of short-term investment decisions by market participants by increasing the accuracy of short-term prediction.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.259-266
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• 2015

Among many energy resources, natural gas has recently received a remarkable amount of attention, particularly from the electrical generation industry. This is in part due to increasing shale gas production, providing an environment-friendly fossil fuel, and high risk of nuclear power. Because South Korea, the world's second largest LNG importing nation after Japan, has no international natural gas pipelines and relies on imports in the form of LNG, the natural gas has been traditionally procured by long term LNG contracts at relatively high price. Thus, there is a need of developing an Asian LNG trading hub, where LNG can be traded at more competitive spot prices. In a natural gas spot market, the amount of natural gas to be bought should be carefully determined considering a limited storage capacity and future pricing dynamics. In this work, the problem to find the optimal amount of natural gas in a spot market is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) in risk neutral environment and the optimal base stock policy which depends on a stage and price is established. Taking into account price and demand uncertainties, the basestock target levels are simply approximated from dynamic programming. The simulation results show that the basestock policy can be one of effective ways for procurement of LNG in a spot market.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.01a
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• pp.325-326
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• 2021

LNG는 환경규제에 따라 화석에너지에서 친환경 재생에너지로 전환되는데 중요한 역할을 하는 에너지원이다. UN산하 세계해사기구(IMO)의 MARPOL협약에 따라 선박 황산화물 배출가스규제로 LNG추진 선박에 대한 수요가 증가되고 있을 뿐만 아니라 미국의 쉐일혁명으로 LNG를 수출함에 따라 공급의 변화가 급격하게 이뤄지고 있다. 과거 국가 주도의 프로젝트 성격이 강한 LNG 운송시장은 장기정기용선계약이 대부분이었으나 수요와 공급시장의 급격한 변화로 스팟시장의 중요성이 커지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 LNG 운송시장에서 시장참여자들의 스팟거래에 합리적인 의사결정이 이뤄지도록 과학적인 예측방법을 제시하고자 한다. LNG 스팟운임 예측에 기계학습모델 중 인공신경망 모델을 적용할 것이며 기존의 시계열분석 방법인 ARIMA모델과 비교하여 본문에서 제시된 모델의 예측성능의 우수성을 확인하였다. 본 논문은 LNG 스팟운임을 다룬 최초의 연구로서 학문적인 차별성이 기대된다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.123-133
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• 2016

LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering has become an important issue with the enforcement of environment regulations in shipping industry required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). With increased attention on LNG bunkering, many studies that focus on safety, regulation, demand forecasting, and the feasibility of LNG fueled ships have been carried out. However, most of the existing research has not included considerations of the price of LNG bunkering and its competitiveness. This paper, therefore, suggests ways to increase price competitiveness in the LNG bunkering market in the Busan Port. This paper analyzes the LNG bunkering supply mechanism by investigating various LNG bunkering terminal business in the LNG supply market. Factors that determine LNG bunkering price and its elasticity are also identified. Market players who want to operate LNG bunkering terminals in the Busan Port should introduce a merchandising trade method that is able to exclude the "Korea premium" in order to increase price competitiveness. This paper also suggests adoptable strategies such as the use of TPS (Terminal to Ship via Pipeline) type of bunkering service and the importance of location for minimizing initial investment cost.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.211-231
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• 2002

This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-104
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• 2024

China is playing more predominant role in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market worldwide and LNG import price is subject to various factors both at home and abroad. Nevertheless, previous studies rarely heed a multiple of factors. A time-varying parameter factor augmented vector auto-regression (TVP-FAVAR) model is adopted to discover the determinants of China's LNG import price and their dynamic impacts from January 2012 to December 2021. According to the findings, market fundamentals have a greater impact on the import price of natural gas in China than overall economic demand, financial considerations, and world oil prices. The primary determinants include domestic gas consumption, consumer confidence and other demand-side information. Then, there are diverse and time-varying spillover effects of the four common determinants on the volatility of China's LNG import price at different intervals and time nodes. The price volatility is more sensitive and long-lasting to domestic natural gas pricing reform than other negative shocks such as the Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results in this study further proves the importance of domestic natural gas market liberalization. China ought to do more to support the further marketization of natural gas prices while working harder to guarantee natural gas supplies.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.07a
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• pp.742-744
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• 2005

그동안 국내에서 소비되는 발전용과 민수용 LNG를 한국가스공사가 독점으로 공급하여 왔으나, 정부가 규제 완화와 경쟁 촉진을 위하여 민간부문에 LNG 직도입을 허용함에 따라 포스코, SK, LG 등 국내 굴지의 기업들이 LNG 직도입을 추진하고 있으며, 최근 포스코가 오만 칼하트로부터 광양 터미널에 6만톤의 LNG를 싣고 5월 27일 입항함으로써 첫 결실을 보게 되었다. 한국가스공사도 2008년이후 신규 LNG 물량에 대하여 기존 대비 30% 이상 낮은 가격으로 계약을 체결하는 등 국내 LNG 가격과 수급구조에 커다란 변동이 예상되고 있다. 우리나라의 CBP 전력시장은 이러한 LNG가격 변동이 발전가격에 그대로 반영되는 가격 메커니즘을 가지고 있어서 향후 전력시장에 미치게 될 영향을 2004년말 정부가 발표한 제2차 전력수급기본계획을 기준으로 검토하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.69-89
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• 2014

The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.