• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.2249-2253
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• 2008

본 연구에서는 지점빈도분석과 지역빈도분석을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정 하였다. 지점빈도 분석은 Annual Maximum Series(AMS) 및 Partial Duration Series(PDS)를 이용하여 자료를 추출하고 각 자료에 적합한 확률분포를 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 그러나 AMS를 이용한 확률홍수량의 산정은 표본의 개수가 부족하면 이에 따른 변동성(variability)이 커지게 되는 단점이 존재하며, PDS를 사용하면 임계값(threshold)에 따른 주관적 영향이 결과에 반영되는 단점이 존재하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 PDS를 사용하는 경우의 단점을 해결하기 위해 연 1.7회의 발생횟수를 갖는 자료를 추출하고 몬테카를로 모의시험을 통하여 주관적 영향을 제거하였다. 또한 두 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량의 비교검토를 위해 지역빈도분석을 수행하였다. 유역의 면적과 일평균강우량으로부터 확률홍수량을 산정할 수 있는 것으로 알려진 Bayesian-Generalized Least Square(B-GLS) 방법을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 안양천 유역의 13개 소유역에 대한 세 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량을 비교 검토한 결과, 특정한 방법이 항상 우수하다는 결론은 얻을 수 없었으나 각 유역별로 AMS가 가장 크고 B-GLS가 가장 작은 확률홍수량을 갖는 경향을 나타내었다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.469-482
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• 2014

This study developed a Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis, which aimed to analyze spatial patterns of design rainfall by incorporating geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) and climate characteristics (e.g. annual maximum series) within a Bayesian framework. There are disadvantages to considering geographical characteristics and to increasing uncertainties associated with areal rainfall estimation on the existing regional frequency analysis. In this sense, this study estimated the parameters of Gumbel distribution which is a function of geographical and climate characteristics, and the estimated parameters were spatially interpolated to derive design rainfall over the entire Han-river watershed. The proposed Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis, and even better performance in terms of quantifying uncertainty of design rainfall and considering geographical information as a predictor.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.78-87
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• 1981

This study was attempted to get dimensionless unit hydrograph by linear model which can be used to the estimation of flood for the development of Agricultural water resources and laid emphasis on the application of dimensionless unit hydrographs for the ungaged watersheds by applying linear model. The results summarized through this study are as follows. 1.Peak discharge is found to be Qp= CAR (C =0. 895A-o.145) having high significance between peak discharge, Qp and effective rainfall, R within the range of small watershed area, 84 to 470km2. consequently, linearity was acknowledged between rainfall and runoff. Reasonability is confirmed for the derivation of dimensionless unit hydrograph by linear model. 2.Through mathematical analysis, formula for the derivation of dimensionless unit hydrograph was derived. qp--p=(tp--t)n-1[e-(n-1)](tp--t-1) 3.Moment method was used for the evaluation of storage constant, K and shape parameter, n for the derivation of dimensionless unit hydrograph. Storage constant, K is more closely related with the such watershed characteristics as length of main stream and slopes. On the other hand, the shape parameter, n was derived with such watershed characteristics as watershed area, river length, centroid distance of the basin and slopes. 4.Time to peak discharge, Tp could be expressed as Tp=1. 25 (√s/L)0.76 having a high significance. 5.Dimensionless unit hydrographs by linear model stood more closely to the observe dimensionless unit hydrographs On the contrary, dimensionless unit hydrographs by S.C. S. method has much difference in comparison with linear model at the falling limb of hydrographs. 6.Relative errors in the q/qp at the point of 0.8 and 1.2 for the dimensionles ratio by linear model and S. C. S. method showed to be 2.41, 1.57 and 4.0, 3.19 percent respectively to the q/qp of observed dimensionless unit hydrographs. 7.Derivation of dimensionless unit hydrograph by linear model can be accomplished by linking the two empirical formulars for storage constant, K, and shape parameter, n with derivation formular for dimensionless unit hydrograph for the ungaged small watersheds.