• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.02a
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.13
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• pp.1-40
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• 1973

These studies were aimed at clarification of genetic and ecological variation in culm length, panicle length and plant height of the $\textrm{F}_2$ plants in some selected crosses made between semi-dwarf rice varieties and tall Japonica ones. One Indica semi-dwarf, Taichung Native 1, one Indica $\times$ Japonica hybrid, IE51 and one Japonica semi-dwarf, Tankanbaekmang were used as short-gene donors while two of medium maturity varieties, Jinheung and Kwanok and one late veriety, Palkweng were used as the corresponding counterpart of respective dwarf varieties in a series of crosses. Five different crosses, Kwanok $\times$ Tankanbaekmang, Palkweng $\times$ Tankanbaekmang, Jinheung $\times$ T(N)1, Kwanok $\times$ T(N)1 and Kwanok $\times$ IE51, were made among the above six varieties. The $\textrm{F}_2$ plants of these crosses together with the concerned parental varieties were grown under several different conditions including three levels of each nitrogen and planting space, three planting seasons and three locations in 1968, to investigate variation in length of culm and panicle, and plant height. On the other hand, the F$_3$ progenies which were derived from the shortest 10 percent of the plants of three $\textrm{F}_2$ populations, Kwanok $\times$ T(N)1, Jinheung $\times$ T(N) 1 and Kwanok $\times$ IE51 grown in the previous year, were compared each other on the basis of selection efficiency in culm length. The experimental results could be summarized as follows; 1. Genetic behavior A. It was revealed that Tankanbaekmang, one of Japonica dwarf has a simple recessive gene responsible for short culm expression, showing a typical segregation ratio of three tall to one short culm plants in $\textrm{F}_2$ generation of the crosses either with Kwanok or Palkweng. B. In the both combinations, segregation pattern of the panicle length was exactly same as that of culm length. It seems that the same gene controls both culm length and panicle length. C. No difference between segregation of culm length and plant height in the above crosses was observed. D. T(N)1, one of Indica semi-dwarf did not show such a simple genetic behavior as detected from the crosses with Tankanbaekmang in segregation of culm length but formed a continuous and normal distribution curve. Therefore, some nonallelic genic actions might be involved in expression of culm length of the counterpart varieties of T(N)1. In particular, a transgressive segregation appeared toward the direction of longer culm length in case of Jinheung $\times$ T(N)1. The genetic behavior of panicle length and plant height generally coincided with that of culm length in all the cases. E. IE51 demonstrated exactly the same genetic behavior as that of T(N)1 when this variety was crossed with Kwanok. It was clearly clarified that the simple recessive gene controlling dwarfism from T(N)1 was well incorporated into this variety. 2. Ecological variation A. In general, there was a decreasing tendency in culm length and plant height of rice plant as seeding delayed while it was not so noticeable in panicle length. The decreasing magnitude varied from variety to variety and from cross to cross. Genetic behavior of the culm length and related characters of these materials was not disturbed by the variation of seeding season, nitrogen level, planting space and experimental location. E. The elongation mode of the upper three internodes was very similar to the segregation mode of culm length, panicle length and plant height in $\textrm{F}_2$ populations of . all the crosses investigated in this study. Accordingly, this result confirmed that the roles of the upper three internodes are very important in manifesting plant stature in rice. C. The effect of nitrogen on culm length and the related other two characters seemed to be meager. However, it was true to show an increasing tendency of those characters as nitrogen level got increased from 4 kg to 12kg per l0a, with different magnitude depending upon variety or cross. D. Also, the effect of planting space on culm length, panicle length and plant height was relatively small in all the cases. Those characters varied again depending upon variety or cross. However, a general increasing tendency was detected in manifestation of those traits under denser planting space condition. E. All the parental varieties produced shorter culm, panicle and plant height when they were grown at the lower latitude locations. It might be attributed to the fact that their reproductive growth accelerated with increased temperature prevailing at the lower latitude locations such as Iri and Mi1yang. On the countrary, $\textrm{F}_2$ population reacted differently to the different locations from the parental varieties. All the $\textrm{F}_2$ plants produced the longest culm, panicle and plant at Milyang. 3. Selection efficiency A. The heritability of culm length in Kwanok $\times$ T(N)1, Kwanok $\times$ IE51 and Jinheung$\times$T(N)1 was 92 percent, 74 percent and 55 percent, respectively. B. The actual genetic advance for culm length obtained from the progeny lines of the selected plants(10 precent) from the $\textrm{F}_2$ generation, was comparable to the expected advance calculated from the original $\textrm{F}_2$ populations. As compared with the $\textrm{F}_2$ population, the $\textrm{F}_3$ plants of Kwanok $\times$ T(N)l shortened on the average by 20.8cm, those of Kwanok $\times$ IE51 did 8.7cm and those of Jinheung$\times$T(N)1 20.0cm, respectively. C. Panicle length of the populations was differently affected from one cross to another by the selection based upon culm length in $\textrm{F}_2$ Kwanok $\times$ T(N)1 did not show any noticeable shortening of its culm length due to the selection pressure. On the other hand, both Kwanok $\times$ IE51 and Jinheung $\times$ T(N)1 showed a considerable shortening of their panicles in case of selection for culm length. Based upon the above results, it could be concluded that the ecological variation in culm length, panicle length and plant height was relatively small and fallen within the range of genetic variation. Considering from the fact that the simple recessive gene governing short height of Tankanbaekmang always accompanied with some undesirable characters such as short panicle and extremely small grain, the short gene of T(N)1 seemed to be more useful as dwarf gene source since it did not carry short gene together with such undesirable traits.

• Applied Biological Chemistry
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.99-111
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• 1973

Percentage recovery or fertilizer nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium by rice plant(Oriza sativa L.) were investigated at 8, 10, 12, 14 kg/10a of N, 6 kg of $P_2O_5$ and 8 kg of $K_2O$ application level in 1967 (51 places) and 1968 (32 places). Two types of nutrient contribution for the yield, that is, P type in which phosphorus firstly increases silicate uptake and secondly silicate increases nitrogen uptake, and K type in which potassium firstly increases P uptake and secondly P increases nitrogen uptake were postulated according to the following results from the correlation analyses (linear) between percentage recovery of fertilizer nutrient and grain or dry matter yields and nutrient uptake. 1. Percentage frequency of minus or zero recovery occurrence was 4% in nitrogen, 48% in phosphorus and 38% in potassium. The frequency distribution of percentage recovery appeared as a normal distribution curve with maximum at 30 to 40 recovery class in nitrogen, but appeared as a show distribution with maximum at below zero class in phosphorus and potassium. 2. Percentage recovery (including only above zero) was 33 in N (above 10kg/10a), 27 in P, 40 in K in 1967 and 40 in N, 20 in P, 46 in Kin 1968. Mean percentage recovery of two years including zero for zero or below zero was 33 in N, 13 in P and 27 in K. 3. Standard deviation of percentage recovery was greater than percentage recovery in P and K and annual variation of CV (coefficient of variation) was greatest in P. 4. The frequency of significant correlation between percentage recovery and grain or dry matter yield was highest in N and lowest in P. Percentage recovery of nitrogen at 10 kg level has significant correlation only with percentage recovery of P in 1967 and only with that of potassium in 1968. 5. The correlation between percentage recovery and dry matter yield of all treatments showed only significant in P in 1967, and only significant in K in 1968, Negative correlation coefficients between percentage recovery and grain or dry matter yield of no or minus fertilizer plots were shown only in K in 1967 and only in P in 1968 indicating that phosphorus fertilizer gave a distinct positive role in 1967 but somewhat' negative role in 1968 while potassium fertilizer worked positively in 1968 but somewhat negatively in 1967. 6. The correlation between percentage recovery of nutrient and grain yield showed similar tendency as with dry matter yield but lower coefficients. Thus the role of nutrients was more precisely expressed through dry matter yield. 7. Percentage recovery of N very frequently had significant correlation with nitrogen uptake of nitrogen applied plot, and significant negative correlation with nitrogen uptake of minus nitrogen plot, and less frequently had significant correlation with P, K and Si uptake of nitrogen applied plot. 8. Percentage recovery of P had significant correlation with Si uptake of all treatments and with N uptake of all treatments except minus phosphorus plot in 1967 indicating that phosphorus application firstly increases Si uptake and secondly silicate increases nitrogen uptake. Percentage recovery of P also frequently had significant correlation with P or K uptake of nitrogen applied plot. 9. Percentage recovery of K had significant correlation with P uptake of all treatments, N uptake of all treatments except minus phosphorus plot, and significant negative correlation with K uptake of minus K plot and with Si uptake of no fertilizer plot or the highest N applied plot in 1968, and negative correlation coefficient with P uptake of no fertilizer or minus nutrient plot in 1967. Percentage recovery of K had higher correlation coefficients with dry matter yield or grain yield than with K uptake. The above facts suggest that K application firstly increases P uptake and secondly phosphorus increases nitrogen uptake for dry matter yied. 10. Percentage recovery of N had significant higher correlation coefficient with grain yield or dry matter yield of minus K plot than with those of minus phosphorus plot, and had higher with those of fertilizer plot than with those of minus K plot. Similar tendency was observed between N uptake and percentage recovery of N among the above treatments. Percentage recovery of K had negative correlation coefficient with grain or-dry matter yield of no fertilizer plot or minus nutrient plot. These facts reveal that phosphorus increases nitrogen uptake and when phosphorus or nitrogen is insufficient potassium competatively inhibits nitrogen uptake. 11. Percentage recovery of N, Pand K had significant negative correlation with relative dry matter yield of minus phosphorus plot (yield of minus plot x 100/yield of complete plot; in 1967 and with relative grain yield of minus K plot in 1968. These results suggest that phosphorus affects tillering or vegetative phase more while potassium affects grain formation or Reproductive phase more, and that clearly show the annual difference of P and K fertilizer effect according to the weather. 12. The correlation between percentage recovery of fertilizer and the relative yield of minus nutrient plat or that of no fertilizer plot to that of minus nutrient plot indicated that nitrogen is the most effective factor for the production even in the minus P or K plot. 13. From the above facts it could be concluded that about 40 to 50 percen of paddy fields do rot require P or K fertilizer and even in the case of need the application amount should be greatly different according to field and weather of the year, especially in phosphorus.