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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

Effect of 6-Hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) on the Expression of Hypothalamus-Pituitary Axis Hormone Genes in Male Rats (수컷 흰쥐의 시상하부-뇌하수체 축 호르몬 유전자 발현에 미치는 6-Hydroxydopamine(6-OHDA)의 영향)

  • Heo, Hyun-Jin;Ahn, Ryun-Sup;Lee, Sung-Ho
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2009
  • A neurotoxin, 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) has been widely used to create animal model for Parkinson's disease (PD) due to its specific toxicity against dopaminergic (DA) neurons. Since DA signals modulate a broad spectrum of CNS physiology, one can expect profound alterations in neuroendocrine activities of both PD patients and 6-OHDA treated animals. Limited applications of 6-OHDA injection model, however, have been made on the studies of hypothalamuspituitary neuroendocrine circuits. The present study was performed to examine whether blockade of brain catecholamine (CA) biosynthesis with 6-OHDA can make any alteration in the transcriptional activities of hypothalamus-pituitary hormone genes in adult male rats. Three-month-old male rats (SD strain) were received 6-OHDA (200μg in 10μ of saline/animal) by intracerebroventricular (icv) injection, and sacrificed after two weeks. To determine the mRNA levels of hypothalamuspituitary hormone genes, total RNAs were extracted and applied to the semi-quantitative RT-PCRs. The mRNA levels of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), the rate-limiting enzyme for the catecholamine biosynthesis, were significantly lower than those from the control group (control:6-OHDA=1:0.72±0.02AU, p<0.001), confirming the efficacy of 6-OHDA injection. The mRNA levels of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) in the hypothalami from 6-OHDA group were significantly lower than those from the control group (GnRH, control:6-OHDA=1:0.39±0.03AU, p<0.001; CRH, control:6-OHDA=1:0.76±0.07AU, p<0.01). There were significant decreases in the mRNA levels of common alpha subunit of glycoprotein homones (Cgα), LH beta subunit (LH-β), and FSH beta subunit (FSH-β) in pituitaries from 6-OHDA group compared to control values (Cgα, control:6-OHDA=1:0.81±0.02AU, p<0.001; LH-β, control:6-OHDA=1:0.68±0.04AU, p<0.001; FSH-β, control:6-OHDA=1:0.84±0.05AU, p<0.001). Similarly, the level of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) transcripts from 6-OHDA group was significantly lower than that from the control group (control: 6-OHDA=1:0.86±0.04AU, p<0.01). The present study demonstrated that centrally injected DA neurotoxin could downregulate the transcriptional activities of the two hypothalamus-pituitary neuroendocrine circuits, i.e., GnRH-gonadotropins and CRH-ACTH systems. These results suggested that hypothalamic CA input might affect on the activities of gonad and adrenal through modulation of hypothalamus-pituitary function, providing plausible explanation for frequent occurrence of sexual dysfunction and poor stress-response in PD patients.

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Immunohistochemical Localization of NMDA Receptor in the Auditory Brain Stem of Postnatal 7, 16 Circling Mouse (생후 7일, 16일된 circling mouse 청각 뇌줄기에서 N-메틸-D 아스파르트산염 수용체(NMDA receptor)에 대한 면역염색학적 분포)

  • Choi, In-Young;Park, Ki-Sup;Kim, Hye-Jin;Maskey, Dhiraj;Kim, Myeung-Ju
    • Applied Microscopy
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2010
  • Glutamate receptors may play a critical role in the refinement of developing synapses. The lateral superior olivary nucleus (LSO)-medial nucleus of trapezoid body (MNTB) synaptic transmission in the mammalian auditory brain stem mediate many excitatory transmitters such as glutamate, which is a useful model to study excitatory synaptic development. Hearing deficits are often accompanied by changes in the synaptic organization such as excitatory or inhibitory circuits as well as anatomical changes. Owing to this, circling mouse whose cochlea degenerates spontaneously after birth, is an excellent animal model to study deafness pathophysiology. However, little is known about the development regulation of the subunits composing these receptors in circling mouse. Thus, we used immunohistochemical method to compare the N-Methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDA receptor) NR1, NR2A, NR2B distribution in the LSO which project glutamergic excitatory input into the auditory brainstem, in circling mouse of postnatal (p) 7 and 16, which have spontaneous mutation in the inner ear, with wild-type mouse. The relative NMDAR1 immunoreactive density of the LSO in circling mouse p7 was 128.67±8.87 in wild-type, 111.06±8.04 in heterozygote, and 108.09±5.94 in homozygote. The density of p16 circling mouse was 43.83±10.49 in wild-type, 40±13.88 in heterozygote, and 55.96±17.35 in homozygote. The relative NMDAR2A immunoreactive density of LSO in circling mouse p7 was 97.97±9.71 in wild-type, 102.87±9.30 in heterozygote, and 106.85±5.79 in homozygote. The density of LSO in p16 circling was 47.4±20.6 in wild-type, 43.9±17.5 in heterozygote, and 49.2±20.1 in homozygote. The relative NMDAR2B immunoreactive density of LSO in circling mouse p7 was 109.04±6.77 in wild-type, 106.43±10.24 in heterozygote, and 105.98±4.10 in homozygote. the density of LSO in p16 circling mouse was 101.47±11.5 in wild-type, 91.47±14.81 in heterozygote, and 93.93±15.71 in homozygote. These results reveal alteration of NMDAR immunoreactivity in LSO of p7 and p16 circling mouse. The results of the present study are likely to be relevant to understand the central change underlying human hereditary deafness.

Studies on Dairy Farming Status, Reproductive Efficiencies and Disorders in New Zealand (I) A Survey on Dairy Farming Status and Milk Yield in Palmerston North Area (뉴질랜드 (Palmerston North) 의 낙농 현황과 번식 및 번식장해에 관한 연구(I) Palmerston North 지역의 낙농 현황과 우유 생산량에 관한 조사 연구)

  • 김중계;맥도날드
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2000
  • Eighty dairy farms in Palmers ton North area in New Zealand were surveyed on 1) general characteristics (10 Questions), 2) milk yield and feed supplementary (7 questions), 3) reproductive efficiencies (12 questions) and 4) reproductive disorders (12 questions) by mail questions from February to July, 1998. Among those 4 items from 38 dairy farms (47.5%), especially in items 1) and 2), overall dairy farming situation, supplementary feeding and milk yields were surveyed and analyzed for Korean dairy farmers (especially in Cheju island) to have better understanding or higher economical gains. The results were as follows. 1. In dairy experience, 21 (45%) among 38 dairy farms surveyed were answered that farming less than 15 years, 15~19 year, 20~25 years and over 26 years experience were 3 (7.9%), 7 (18.4%), 6 (15.8%) and 5 (13.2%) which generally showed longer experience compare to Korean dairy farming situation. In survey of labour input and business goal of dairy farming, self-managing farms, sharemilkers, unpaid family manpowering farms, manager running farms, farms with hired worker, farms with part time helper and other type was 21 (55.3%), 10 (26.3%), 2 (3.5%), 3 (5.3%), 18 (31.6%), 2 (3.5%), and 1 (1.8%), respectively. 2. Analyzing pasture and tillable land, pasture according to feeding scale (200, 300 and 400 heads) were 56, 90 and 165.3 ha, and tillable lands were 51, 78 and 165 ha which showed some differences among feeding scale. In recording methods in 38 farms replied, 36 (95%) dairy handbook and 23 (70%) dual methods taking farms were higher than that of 10 (26.3%) computer and 15(39.5%) well-recorder methods. 3. Dairy waste processing facilities in environmental field were almost perfect except of metropolitan area, and so no problem was developed in its control so far. Hence, 26 farm (68.4%) of pond system was higher rather than those in 8 (21.2%) of using as organic manure after storing feces of dairy cattle, 1(2.6%) bunker system and 3 (7.9%) other type farms. 4. In milking facilities, 33 farms (86.9%) of Harringbone types were higher than those in 3 (7.9%) of Walkthrough types, 1 (2.6%) of Rotary system and other types. Although the construction facilities was not enough, this system show the world-leveled dairy country to attempted to elevate economic gains using the advantage of climatic condition. 5. In milking day and yearly yield per head, average 275 milking days and 87 drying days were longer than that of 228 average milking days in New Zealand. Annual total milk yield per head and milk solid (ms) was 3,990 kg and approximately 319 kg. Dairy milk solid (ms) per head, milk yield, fat percentage was 1.2 kg, 15.5 kg and average 4.83% which was much higher than in other country, and milk protein was average 3.75%. 6. In coclusion, Palmerstone North has been a center of dairy farming in New Zealand for the last 21 years. Their dairy farming history is 6~9 year longer than ours and the average number of milking cows per farm is 355, which is much greater than that (35) of Korea. They do not have dairy barn, but only milking parlors. Cows are taken care of by family 0.5 persons), are on a planned calving schedule in spring (93%) and milked for 240~280 days a year, avoiding winter. Cows are dried according to milk yield and body condition score. This management system is quite different from that of Korean dairy farms. Cows are not fed concentrates, relying entirely on pasture forages and the average milk yield per cow is 3,500 kg, which is about 1/2 milk yield of Korean dairy farms. They were bred to produce high fat milk with an average of 4.5%. Their milk production cost is the lowest in the world and the country's economy relies heavily on milk production. We Korean farmers may try to increase farming size, decreasing labor and management costs.

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A Study on the System of Aircraft Investigation (항공기(航空機) 사고조사제도(事故調査制度)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.9
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    • pp.85-143
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    • 1997
  • The main purpose of the investigation of an accident caused by aircraft is to be prevented the sudden and casual accidents caused by wilful misconduct and fault from pilots, air traffic controllers, hijack, trouble of engine and machinery of aircraft, turbulence during the bad weather, collision between birds and aircraft, near miss flight by aircrafts etc. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability for offender of aircraft accidents. Accidents to aircraft, especially those involving the general public and their property, are a matter of great concern to the aviation community. The system of international regulation exists to improve safety and minimize, as far as possible, the risk of accidents but when they do occur there is a web of systems and procedures to investigate and respond to them. I would like to trace the general line of regulation from an international source in the Chicago Convention of 1944. Article 26 of the Convention lays down the basic principle for the investigation of the aircraft accident. Where there has been an accident to an aircraft of a contracting state which occurs in the territory of another contracting state and which involves death or serious injury or indicates serious technical defect in the aircraft or air navigation facilities, the state in which the accident occurs must institute an inquiry into the circumstances of the accident. That inquiry will be in accordance, in so far as its law permits, with the procedure which may be recommended from time to time by the International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO). There are very general provisions but they state two essential principles: first, in certain circumstances there must be an investigation, and second, who is to be responsible for undertaking that investigation. The latter is an important point to establish otherwise there could be at least two states claiming jurisdiction on the inquiry. The Chicago Convention also provides that the state where the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint observers to be present at the inquiry and the state holding the inquiry must communicate the report and findings in the matter to that other state. It is worth noting that the Chicago Convention (Article 25) also makes provision for assisting aircraft in distress. Each contracting state undertakes to provide such measures of assistance to aircraft in distress in its territory as it may find practicable and to permit (subject to control by its own authorities) the owner of the aircraft or authorities of the state in which the aircraft is registered, to provide such measures of assistance as may be necessitated by circumstances. Significantly, the undertaking can only be given by contracting state but the duty to provide assistance is not limited to aircraft registered in another contracting state, but presumably any aircraft in distress in the territory of the contracting state. Finally, the Convention envisages further regulations (normally to be produced under the auspices of ICAO). In this case the Convention provides that each contracting state, when undertaking a search for missing aircraft, will collaborate in co-ordinated measures which may be recommended from time to time pursuant to the Convention. Since 1944 further international regulations relating to safety and investigation of accidents have been made, both pursuant to Chicago Convention and, in particular, through the vehicle of the ICAO which has, for example, set up an accident and reporting system. By requiring the reporting of certain accidents and incidents it is building up an information service for the benefit of member states. However, Chicago Convention provides that each contracting state undertakes collaborate in securing the highest practicable degree of uniformity in regulations, standards, procedures and organization in relation to aircraft, personnel, airways and auxiliary services in all matters in which such uniformity will facilitate and improve air navigation. To this end, ICAO is to adopt and amend from time to time, as may be necessary, international standards and recommended practices and procedures dealing with, among other things, aircraft in distress and investigation of accidents. Standards and Recommended Practices for Aircraft Accident Injuries were first adopted by the ICAO Council on 11 April 1951 pursuant to Article 37 of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation and were designated as Annex 13 to the Convention. The Standards Recommended Practices were based on Recommendations of the Accident Investigation Division at its first Session in February 1946 which were further developed at the Second Session of the Division in February 1947. The 2nd Edition (1966), 3rd Edition, (1973), 4th Edition (1976), 5th Edition (1979), 6th Edition (1981), 7th Edition (1988), 8th Edition (1992) of the Annex 13 (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation) of the Chicago Convention was amended eight times by the ICAO Council since 1966. Annex 13 sets out in detail the international standards and recommended practices to be adopted by contracting states in dealing with a serious accident to an aircraft of a contracting state occurring in the territory of another contracting state, known as the state of occurrence. It provides, principally, that the state in which the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint an accredited representative to be present at the inquiry conducted by the state in which the serious aircraft accident occurs. Article 26 of the Chicago Convention does not indicate what the accredited representative is to do but Annex 13 amplifies his rights and duties. In particular, the accredited representative participates in the inquiry by visiting the scene of the accident, examining the wreckage, questioning witnesses, having full access to all relevant evidence, receiving copies of all pertinent documents and making submissions in respect of the various elements of the inquiry. The main shortcomings of the present system for aircraft accident investigation are that some contracting sates are not applying Annex 13 within its express terms, although they are contracting states. Further, and much more important in practice, there are many countries which apply the letter of Annex 13 in such a way as to sterilise its spirit. This appears to be due to a number of causes often found in combination. Firstly, the requirements of the local law and of the local procedures are interpreted and applied so as preclude a more efficient investigation under Annex 13 in favour of a legalistic and sterile interpretation of its terms. Sometimes this results from a distrust of the motives of persons and bodies wishing to participate or from commercial or related to matters of liability and bodies. These may be political, commercial or related to matters of liability and insurance. Secondly, there is said to be a conscious desire to conduct the investigation in some contracting states in such a way as to absolve from any possibility of blame the authorities or nationals, whether manufacturers, operators or air traffic controllers, of the country in which the inquiry is held. The EEC has also had an input into accidents and investigations. In particular, a directive was issued in December 1980 encouraging the uniformity of standards within the EEC by means of joint co-operation of accident investigation. The sharing of and assisting with technical facilities and information was considered an important means of achieving these goals. It has since been proposed that a European accident investigation committee should be set up by the EEC (Council Directive 80/1266 of 1 December 1980). After I would like to introduce the summary of the legislation examples and system for aircraft accidents investigation of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Swiss, New Zealand and Japan, and I am going to mention the present system, regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation in Korea. Furthermore I would like to point out the shortcomings of the present system and regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation and then I will suggest my personal opinion on the new and dramatic innovation on the system for aircraft accident investigation in Korea. I propose that it is necessary and desirable for us to make a new legislation or to revise the existing aviation act in order to establish the standing and independent Committee of Aircraft Accident Investigation under the Korean Government.

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Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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