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Extension Method of Association Rules Using Social Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 연관규칙 확장기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.

Categorizing Quality Features of Franchisees: In the case of Korean Food Service Industry (프랜차이즈 매장 품질요인의 속성분류: 국내 외식업을 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sook-Eun;Cho, Eun-Seong
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.95-115
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    • 2011
  • Food service is the major part of franchise business in Korea, accounting for 69.9% of the brands in the market. As the food service industry becomes mature, many franchisees have struggled to survive in the market. In general, consumers have higher levels of expectation toward service quality of franchised outlets compared that of (non-franchised) independent ones. They also tend to believe that franchisees deliver standardized service at the uniform food price, regardless of their locations. Such beliefs seem to be important reasons that consumers prefer franchised outlets to independent ones. Nevertheless, few studies examined the impact of qualify features of franchisees on customer satisfaction so far. To this end, this study examined the characteristics of various quality features of franchisees in the food service industry, regarding their relationship with customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The quality perception of heavy-users was also compared with that of light-users in order to find insights for developing differentiated marketing strategy for the two segments. Customer satisfaction has been understood as a one-dimensional construct while there are recent studies that insist two-dimensional nature of the construct. In this regard, Kano et al. (1984) suggested to categorize quality features of a product or service into five types, based on their relation to customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction: Must-be quality, Attractive quality, One-dimensional quality, Indifferent quality, and Reverse quality. According to the Kano model, customers are more dissatisfied when Must-be quality(M) are not fulfilled, but their satisfaction does not arise above neutral no matter how fully the quality fulfilled. In comparison, customers are more satisfied with a full provision of Attactive quality(A) but manage to accept its dysfunction. One-dimensional quality(O) results in satisfaction when fulfilled and dissatisfaction when not fulfilled. For Indifferent quality(I), its presence or absence influences neither customer satisfaction nor dissatisfaction. Lastly, Reverse quality(R) refers to the features whose high degree of achievement results in customer dissatisfaction rather than satisfaction. Meanwhile, the basic guidelines of the Kano model have a limitation in that the quality type of each feature is simply determined by calculating the mode statistics. In order to overcome such limitation, the relative importance of each feature on customer satisfaction (Better value; b) and dissatisfaction (Worse value; w) were calculated following the formulas below (Timko, 1993). The Better value indicates how much customer satisfaction is increased by providing the quality feature in question. In contrast, the Worse value indicates how much customer dissatisfaction is decreased by providing the quality feature. Better = (A + O)/(A+O+M+I) Worse = (O+M)/(A+O+M+I)(-1) An on-line survey was performed in order to understand the nature of quality features of franchisees in the food service industry by applying the Kano Model. A total of twenty quality features (refer to the Table 2) were identified as the result of literature review in franchise business and a pre-test with fifty college students in Seoul. The potential respondents of our main survey was limited to the customers who have visited more than two restaurants/stores of the same franchise brand. Survey invitation e-mails were sent out to the panels of a market research company and a total of 257 responses were used for analysis. Following the guidelines of Kano model, each of the twenty quality features was classified into one of the five types based on customers' responses to a set of questions: "(1) how do you feel if the following quality feature is fulfilled in the franchise restaurant that you visit," and "(2) how do you feel if the following quality feature is not fulfilled in the franchise restaurant that you visit." The analyses revealed that customers' dissatisfaction with franchisees is commonly associated with the poor level of cleanliness of the store (w=-0.872), kindness of the staffs(w=-0.890), conveniences such as parking lot and restroom(w=-0.669), and expertise of the staffs(w=-0.492). Such quality features were categorized as Must-be quality in this study. While standardization or uniformity across franchisees has been emphasized in franchise business, this study found that consumers are interested only in uniformity of price across franchisees(w=-0.608), but not interested in standardizations of menu items, interior designs, customer service procedures, and food tastes. Customers appeared to be more satisfied when the franchise brand has promotional events such as giveaways(b=0.767), good accessibility(b=0.699), customer loyalty programs(b=0.659), award winning history(b=0.641), and outlets in the overseas market(b=0.506). The results are summarized in a matrix form in Table 1. Better(b) and Worse(w) index indicate relative importance of each quality feature on customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction, respectively. Meanwhile, there were differences in perceiving the quality features between light users and heavy users of any specific franchise brand in the food service industry. Expertise of the staffs was labeled as Must-be quality for heavy users but Indifferent quality for light users. Light users seemed indifferent to overseas expansion of the brand and offering new menu items on a regular basis, while heavy users appeared to perceive them as Attractive quality. Such difference may come from their different levels of involvement when they eat out. The results are shown in Table 2. The findings of this study help practitioners understand the quality features they need to focus on to strengthen the competitive power in the food service market. Above all, removing the factors that cause customer dissatisfaction seems to be the most critical for franchisees. To retain loyal customers of the franchise brand, it is also recommended for franchisor to invest resources in the development of new menu items as well as training programs for the staffs. Lastly, if resources allow, promotional events, loyalty programs, overseas expansion, award-winning history can be considered as tools for attracting more customers to the business.

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Global Charity Operations of Cleft Lip and Palate by Korean Cleft Lip and Palate Association ; Charity Operations in Kenya, east Africa (대한구순구개열학회의 글로벌 자선 수술 활동 : 케냐에서의 자선 수술 활동)

  • Choung, Pill-Hoon;Park, Joo-Young;Park, Joo-Young;Ahn, Kang-Min;Baek, Jin-Woo;Cho, Il-Hwan;Choi, Cheol-Min;Choi, Seon-Hyu;Chung, Il-Hyuk;Gao, En-Feng;Hong, Jong-Rak;Hyun, Seung-Don;Jang, Hyon-Seok;Jun, Sang-Ho;Jung, Sung-Uk;Kang, Na-Ra;Kang, Young-Ho;Kim, Byung-Ryul;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Eun-Seok;Kim, Ho-Sung;Kim, In-Soo;Kim, Ji-Hyuck;Kim, Jong-Ryoul;Kim, Joong-Min;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kim, Soung-Min;Ko, Bong-Hwa;Koh, Sung-Hee;Lee, Bu-Kyu;Lee, Eui-Seok;Lee, Jong-Ho;Lee, Ui-Lyong;Lee, Won;Lee, Won-Deok;Min, Byong-Il;Nam, Il-Woo;Paeng, Jun-Young;Park, Jong-Chul;Park, Jung-Seok;Park, Sung-Hee;Park, Young-Wook;Pyo, Sung-Woon;Rim, Chae-Hong;Rim, Jae-Suk;Seo, Byoung-Moo;Suh, Je-Duck;Yoon, Jeong-Ho;Yoon, Jung-Ju;Yun, Hyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Cleft Lip And Palate
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2006
  • Korean Cleft Lip and Palate Association (KCLPA) was founded in 1996. The first overseas charity operation was in Karachi, Pakistan, 2002 and our association has visited fourteen times in six countries for the free cleft surgery: Pakistan, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Jordan and Vietnam. The cumulated number of operated patients reaches to 280. Before our association, many Korean oral and maxillofacial surgeons have performed charity operations individually since 1964. It was started from Vietnam but the activity is now carried on in Africa, middle-east Asia, south-east Asia, China, and Korea as an official team. LG electronics, a Korean company helped to propagate our team's activity to middle-east Asia to Africa. This paper is a report concerning about the results of our association's charity activities especially in Kenya, east Africa. We provided free cleft surgery for 30 patients in 2004 and 27 patients in 2005, in Nairobi. As the blood test for HIV of the cleft patients was not allowed before and during surgery, our surgeons and nurses were cautious about every movement during the surgeries. Thus the operation time for each patient was longer than any other time. The attitude of the local hospital and the doctors seemed to be accustomed to this situation. They helped us in case of needle injuries. Safety of medical staff and patients is more important than the number of the patients operated in charity operation. This belief should be approached being parallel and multidisciplinary as an international cooperation, focusing on international funding for medical support and continuous education for local doctors who are willing to devote to their people.

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Analysis of the Planting and Use of Landscaping Plants - Focused on Weonju and Hoengseong - (조경식물의 식재와 이용 - 원주시와 횡성군을 중심으로 -)

  • Won, Jong-Hwa;Jeong, Jin-Hyung;Kim, Chang-Seop;Lee, Ki-Eui
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.34-58
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    • 2005
  • This study was executed to find out how to improve the planting and use of landscaping plants in Weonju and Hoengseong. 1. The number of street trees were 22,068 and the species number were 10 species in Weonju in 2004. The major species of street trees were Ginkgo biloba(58%), Prunus sargentii(15%), Zelkova serrata(9%), Prunus armeniaca var. ansu(8%), and Acer palmatum(6%). The ratio of native species versus exotic were 50:50. In Hoengseong, the number of street trees was 13,500 and the species number were 15 species. The major species of street trees were Prunus sargentii(42%), Ginkgo biloba(23%), Acer triflorum(12%), Prunus armeniaca var. ansu(6%), and Prunus mume(4%). The ratio of native species versus exotic were 67:33. The species of which planting frequency within two areas was very high were Ginkgo biloba and Prunus sargentii. 2. It is necessary to select tree species suitable for the characteristics of the locality and to raise distinctive street trees that contribute to the tourist industry. For the purpose, the appropriate street trees in two areas are Cornus controversa, Quercus aliena, Zelkova serrata, Prunus padus, Sorbus alnifolia, Sorbus comixta, Albizzia julibrissin, Acer triflorum, Styrax japonica, Chionanthus retusus, Celtis sinensis, Prunus yedoensis, Malus sieboldii, Crataegus Pinnatifida, Prunus armeniaca var. ansu and Pyrus pyrifolia etc.. 3. Appropriate pruning adds to the aesthetic and prolongs the useful life, it also requires less managing of insects and diseases to maintain good healthy of street trees. Street trees were not properly pruned due to electric lines and shortage of pruning information. The pruning was controlled by Korea Electric Power Co, which has no pruning information. Pruning must be maintained by a professional landscape company to maintain good shape such as with Bonsai. The shrubs planting zone between street trees and other trees, and preservation plates were established for healthy of street trees. They have to be repaired and maintained well to keep better environmental conditions. The proper fertilization, the control of pests and diseases, the installation of drainpipe and the use of soil brought from another place were needed to improve the planting, use and maintenance of landscape plants. 4. The species number of school trees and flowers of 102 schools in Weonju and Hoengseong were 17species, 16species respectively. The major species of school trees in Weonju were Juniperus chinensis(24%), Ginkgo biloba(17%), Pinus densiflora(14%), Zelkova serrata(14%), and Pinus koraiensis(9%), and those of school trees in Hoengseong were Pinus koraiensis(44%), Abies holophylla(25%), Juniperus chinensis(8%), and Ginkgo biloba(8%). The major species of school flowers in Weonju were Rosa centifolia(47%), Forsythia koreana(24%), Magnolia kobus(12%), and Rhododendron schlippenbachii(6%), and those of school flowers in Hoengseong were Forsythia koreana(36%), Rhododendron schlippenbachii(33%), Magnolia kobus(6%) and Dicentra spectabilis(6%). 5. The species number of the protection trees designated by Woenju and Hoengseong were 15 species. The major species of protection trees were Zelkova serrata(100 trees), Ginkgo biloba(18) Pinus densiflora(7), Quercus spp. (5), Juniperus chinensis(4) and Alnus japonica(4). 6. The landscape plants planted around 2004 in weonju were Prunus yedoensis(2,563 trees), Betula platyphylla var. japonica(2,000), Abies holophylla(1,785), Diospyros kaki(1,100), Prunus sargentii(880) and Prunus armeniaca var. ansu(708) etc.. The shrubs planted were Rhododendron obutusum(21,559 plants), Rosa centifolia (7,150), Rhododendron yedoense var. poukhanense(5,950), Forsythia koreana(3,000) and Ligustrum obtusi[olium(2,500) etc.. The landscape plants planted in Hoengseong Acer triflorum(928trees), Prunus yedoensis(455), Zelkova serrata(327), Thuja orientalis(261), Prunus sargentii(257), Pinus koraiensis(200), Prunus persica for. rubro-plena(200) and Pyrus pyrifolia (200) etc.. The shrubs planted were Rhododendron yedoense var. poukhanense(15,936), Syringa dilatata(10,090), Forsythia koreana(9,660), Cercis chinensis(3,200), Buxus microphylla var. koreana(2,600) and Rosa centifolia(1,868) etc.. 7. The species numbers of the herbaceous plants planted in 2004 in Weonju were 24 species and the ratio of native species versus exotic were 7:17. The major species of perennial plants were Aster koraiensis(30,656 plants), Coreopsis drummondii(7,656), Rudbeckia bicolor(6,000), Chrysanthemum morifolium(4,850) and Chrysanthemum zawadskii var. latilobum(4,312). The major species of annuals and biennials were Cosmos bipinnatus(672,000 plants), Zinnia elegans(35,600), Petunia hybrida(26,920), Viola tricolor(23,000), Helianthus annuus(17,000), and Geranium cinereum var. pubcaulescens(5,200). In Hoengseong, the numbers of herbaceous plants were 906,310 plants and the species numbers were 15 species. The major species of perennials plants were Aster koraiensis(70,480 plants), Hemerocallis fulva(20,070), and Phlox drummondii(18,000). The major species of annuals and biennials were Phlox hybrida(174,000 plants), Cosmos bipinnatus(125,000), Zinnia elegans(109,000), Tagetes patula(96,700), Vinca rosea(89,000) and Calendula officinalis(70,000). 8. Through these result, it was thought that the diversification of planting species, the selection of plants suitable to each space and the generalization of use of native species were needed.

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A Study on the Clustering Method of Row and Multiplex Housing in Seoul Using K-Means Clustering Algorithm and Hedonic Model (K-Means Clustering 알고리즘과 헤도닉 모형을 활용한 서울시 연립·다세대 군집분류 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Soonjae;Kim, Seonghyeon;Tak, Onsik;Jeong, Hyeonhee
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.95-118
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    • 2017
  • Recent centrally the downtown area, the transaction between the row housing and multiplex housing is activated and platform services such as Zigbang and Dabang are growing. The row housing and multiplex housing is a blind spot for real estate information. Because there is a social problem, due to the change in market size and information asymmetry due to changes in demand. Also, the 5 or 25 districts used by the Seoul Metropolitan Government or the Korean Appraisal Board(hereafter, KAB) were established within the administrative boundaries and used in existing real estate studies. This is not a district classification for real estate researches because it is zoned urban planning. Based on the existing study, this study found that the city needs to reset the Seoul Metropolitan Government's spatial structure in estimating future housing prices. So, This study attempted to classify the area without spatial heterogeneity by the reflected the property price characteristics of row housing and Multiplex housing. In other words, There has been a problem that an inefficient side has arisen due to the simple division by the existing administrative district. Therefore, this study aims to cluster Seoul as a new area for more efficient real estate analysis. This study was applied to the hedonic model based on the real transactions price data of row housing and multiplex housing. And the K-Means Clustering algorithm was used to cluster the spatial structure of Seoul. In this study, data onto real transactions price of the Seoul Row housing and Multiplex Housing from January 2014 to December 2016, and the official land value of 2016 was used and it provided by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(hereafter, MOLIT). Data preprocessing was followed by the following processing procedures: Removal of underground transaction, Price standardization per area, Removal of Real transaction case(above 5 and below -5). In this study, we analyzed data from 132,707 cases to 126,759 data through data preprocessing. The data analysis tool used the R program. After data preprocessing, data model was constructed. Priority, the K-means Clustering was performed. In addition, a regression analysis was conducted using Hedonic model and it was conducted a cosine similarity analysis. Based on the constructed data model, we clustered on the basis of the longitude and latitude of Seoul and conducted comparative analysis of existing area. The results of this study indicated that the goodness of fit of the model was above 75 % and the variables used for the Hedonic model were significant. In other words, 5 or 25 districts that is the area of the existing administrative area are divided into 16 districts. So, this study derived a clustering method of row housing and multiplex housing in Seoul using K-Means Clustering algorithm and hedonic model by the reflected the property price characteristics. Moreover, they presented academic and practical implications and presented the limitations of this study and the direction of future research. Academic implication has clustered by reflecting the property price characteristics in order to improve the problems of the areas used in the Seoul Metropolitan Government, KAB, and Existing Real Estate Research. Another academic implications are that apartments were the main study of existing real estate research, and has proposed a method of classifying area in Seoul using public information(i.e., real-data of MOLIT) of government 3.0. Practical implication is that it can be used as a basic data for real estate related research on row housing and multiplex housing. Another practical implications are that is expected the activation of row housing and multiplex housing research and, that is expected to increase the accuracy of the model of the actual transaction. The future research direction of this study involves conducting various analyses to overcome the limitations of the threshold and indicates the need for deeper research.

Musical Analysis of Jindo Dasiraegi music for the Scene of Performing Arts Contents (연희현장에서의 올바른 활용을 위한 진도다시래기 음악분석)

  • Han, Seung Seok;Nam, Cho Long
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.25
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    • pp.253-289
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    • 2012
  • Dasiraegi is a traditional funeral rite performance of Jindo located in the South Jeolla Province of South Korea. With its unique stylistic structure including various dances, songs and witty dialogues, and a storyline depicting the birth of a new life in the wake of death, embodying the Buddhism belief that life and death is interconnected; it attracted great interest from performance organizers and performers who were desperately seeking new contents that can be put on stage as a performance. It is needless to say previous research on Dasiraegi had been most valuable in its recreation as it analyzed the performance from a wide range of perspectives. Despite its contributions, the previous researches were mainly academic focusing on: the symbolic meanings of the performance, basic introduction to the components of the performance such as script, lyrics, witty dialogue, appearance (costume and make-up), stage properties, rhythm, dance and etc., lacking accurate representation of the most crucial element of the performance which is sori (song). For this reason, the study analyzes the music of Dasiraegi and presents its musical characteristics along with its scores to provide practical support for performers who are active in the field. Out of all the numbers in Dasiraegi, this study analyzed all of Geosa-nori and Sadang-nori, the funeral dirge (mourning chant) sung as the performers come on stage and Gasangjae-nori, because among the five proceedings of the funeral rite they were the most commonly performed. There are a plethora of performance recordings to choose from, however, this study chose Jindo Dasiraegi, an album released by E&E Media. The album offers high quality recordings of performances, but more importantly, it is easy to obtain and utilize for performers who want to learn the Dasiraegi based on the script provided in this study. The musical analysis discovered a number of interesting findings. Firstly, most of the songs in Dasiraegi use a typical Yukjabaegi-tori which applies the Mi scale frequently containing cut-off (breaking) sounds. Although, Southern Kyoung-tori which applies the Sol scale was used, it was only in limited parts and was musically incomplete. Secondly, there was no musical affinity between Ssitgim-gut and Dasiraegi albeit both are for funeral rites. The fundamental difference in character and function of Ssitgim-gut and Dasiraegi may be the reason behind this lack of affinity, as Ssitgim-gut is sung to guide the deceased to heaven by comforting him/her, whereas, Dasiaregi is sung to reinvigorate the lives of the living. Lastly, traces of musical grammar found in Pansori are present in the earlier part of Dasiraegi. This may be attributed to the master artist (Designee of Important Intangible Cultural Heritage), who was instrumental in the restoration and hand-down of Dasiaregi, and his experience in a Changgeuk company. The performer's experience with Changgeuk may have induced the alterations in Dasiraegi, causing it to deviate from its original form. On the other hand, it expanded the performative bais by enhancing the performance aspect of Dasiraegi allowing it to be utilized as contents for Performing Arts. It would be meaningful to see this study utilized to benefit future performance artists, taking Dasiraegi as their inspiration, which overcomes the loss of death and invigorates the vibrancy of life.

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

The Factors Affecting Attitudes Toward HSDPA Service and Intention to Use: A Cross-Cultural Comparison between Asia and Europe (대영향(对影响)HSDPA복무적태도화사용의도적인소적연구(服务的态度和使用意图的因素的研究): 재아주화구주지간적(在亚洲和欧洲之间的)-개과문화비교(个跨文化比较))

  • Jung, Hae-Sung;Shin, Jong-Kuk;Park, Min-Sook;Jung, Hong-Seob;Hooley, Graham;Lee, Nick;Kwak, Hyok-Jin;Kim, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2009
  • HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) is a 3.5-generation asynchronous mobile communications service based on the third generation of W-CDMA. In Korea, it is mainly provided in through videophone service. Because of the diffusion of more powerful and diversified services, along with steep advances in mobile communications technology, consumers demand a wide range of choices. However, because of the variety of technologies, which tend to overflow the market regardless of consumer preferences, consumers feel increasingly confused. Therefore, we should not adopt strategies that focus only on developing new technology on the assumption that new technologies are next-generation projects. Instead, we should understand the process by which consumers accept new forms of technology and devise schemes to lower market entry barriers through strategies that enable developers to understand and provide what consumers really want. In the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use are suggested as the most important factors affecting the attitudes of people adopting new technologies (Davis, 1989; Taylor and Todd, 1995; Venkatesh, 2000; Lee et al., 2004). Perceived usefulness is the degree to which a person believes that a particular technology will enhance his or her job performance. Perceived ease of use is the degree of subjective belief that using a particular technology will require little physical and mental effort (Davis, 1989; Morris and Dillon, 1997; Venkatesh, 2000). Perceived pleasure and perceived usefulness have been shown to clearly affect attitudes toward accepting technology (Davis et al., 1992). For example, pleasure in online shopping has been shown to positively impact consumers' attitudes toward online sellers (Eighmey and McCord, 1998; Mathwick, 2002; Jarvenpaa and Todd, 1997). The perceived risk of customers is a subjective risk, which is distinguished from an objective probabilistic risk. Perceived risk includes a psychological risk that consumers perceive when they choose brands, stores, and methods of purchase to obtain a particular item. The ability of an enterprise to revolutionize products depends on the effective acquisition of knowledge about new products (Bierly and Chakrabarti, 1996; Rothwell and Dodgson, 1991). Knowledge acquisition is the ability of a company to perceive the value of novelty and technology of the outside (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990), to evaluate the outside technology that has newly appeared (Arora and Gambaradella, 1994), and to predict the future evolution of technology accurately (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990). Consumer innovativeness is the degree to which an individual adopts innovation earlier than others in the social system (Lee, Ahn, and Ha, 2001; Gatignon and Robertson, 1985). That is, it shows how fast and how easily consumers adopt new ideas. Innovativeness is regarded as important because it has a significant effect on whether consumers adopt new products and on how fast they accept new products (Midgley and Dowling, 1978; Foxall, 1988; Hirschman, 1980). We conducted cross-national comparative research using the TAM model, which empirically verified the relationship between the factors that affect attitudes - perceived usefulness, ease of use, perceived pleasure, perceived risk, innovativeness, and perceived level of knowledge management - and attitudes toward HSDPA service. We also verified the relationship between attitudes and usage intention for the purpose of developing more effective methods of management for HSDPA service providers. For this research, 346 questionnaires were distributed among 350 students in the Republic of Korea. Because 26 of the returned questionnaires were inconsistent or had missing data, 320 questionnaires were used in the hypothesis tests. In UK, 192 of the total 200 questionnaires were retrieved, and two incomplete ones were discarded, bringing the total to 190 questionnaires used for statistical analysis. The results of the overall model analysis are as follows: Republic of Korea x2=333.27(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.88, CFI=0.91, IFI=0.91, RMR=0.054, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84, UK x2=176.57(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.90, CFI=0.93, IFI=0.93, RMR=0.062, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84. From the results of the hypothesis tests of Korean consumers about the relationship between factors that affect intention to use HSDPA services and attitudes, we can conclude that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness promote positive attitudes toward HSDPA mobile phones. However, ease of use and perceived pleasure did not have a direct effect on intention to use HSDPA service. This may have resulted from the fact that the use of video phones is not necessary for everyday life yet. Moreover, it has been shown that attitudes toward HSDPA video phones are directly correlated with usage intention, which means that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness. These relationships form the basis of the intention to buy, contributing to a situation in which consumers decide to choose carefully. A summary of the results of the hypothesis tests of European consumers revealed that perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and the level of knowledge management are factors that affect the formation of attitudes, while ease of use and innovativeness do not have an effect on attitudes. In particular, with regard to the effect value, perceived usefulness has the largest effect on attitudes, followed by pleasure and knowledge management. On the contrary, perceived risk has a smaller effect on attitudes. In the Asian model, ease of use and perceived pleasure were found not to have a direct effect on intention to use. However, because attitudes generally affect the intention to use, perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and knowledge management may be considered key factors in attitude development from which usage intention arises. In conclusion, perceived usefulness, pleasure, and the level of knowledge management have an effect on attitude formation in both Asian and European consumers, and such attitudes shape these consumers' intention to use. Furthermore, the hypotheses that ease of use and perceived pleasure affect usage intention are rejected. However, ease of use, perceived risk, and innovativeness showed different results. Perceived risk had no effect on attitude formation among Asians, while ease of use and innovativeness had no effect on attitudes among Europeans.

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Emoticon by Emotions: The Development of an Emoticon Recommendation System Based on Consumer Emotions (Emoticon by Emotions: 소비자 감성 기반 이모티콘 추천 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.227-252
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    • 2018
  • The evolution of instant communication has mirrored the development of the Internet and messenger applications are among the most representative manifestations of instant communication technologies. In messenger applications, senders use emoticons to supplement the emotions conveyed in the text of their messages. The fact that communication via messenger applications is not face-to-face makes it difficult for senders to communicate their emotions to message recipients. Emoticons have long been used as symbols that indicate the moods of speakers. However, at present, emoticon-use is evolving into a means of conveying the psychological states of consumers who want to express individual characteristics and personality quirks while communicating their emotions to others. The fact that companies like KakaoTalk, Line, Apple, etc. have begun conducting emoticon business and sales of related content are expected to gradually increase testifies to the significance of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, despite the development of emoticons themselves and the growth of the emoticon market, no suitable emoticon recommendation system has yet been developed. Even KakaoTalk, a messenger application that commands more than 90% of domestic market share in South Korea, just grouped in to popularity, most recent, or brief category. This means consumers face the inconvenience of constantly scrolling around to locate the emoticons they want. The creation of an emoticon recommendation system would improve consumer convenience and satisfaction and increase the sales revenue of companies the sell emoticons. To recommend appropriate emoticons, it is necessary to quantify the emotions that the consumer sees and emotions. Such quantification will enable us to analyze the characteristics and emotions felt by consumers who used similar emoticons, which, in turn, will facilitate our emoticon recommendations for consumers. One way to quantify emoticons use is metadata-ization. Metadata-ization is a means of structuring or organizing unstructured and semi-structured data to extract meaning. By structuring unstructured emoticon data through metadata-ization, we can easily classify emoticons based on the emotions consumers want to express. To determine emoticons' precise emotions, we had to consider sub-detail expressions-not only the seven common emotional adjectives but also the metaphorical expressions that appear only in South Korean proved by previous studies related to emotion focusing on the emoticon's characteristics. We therefore collected the sub-detail expressions of emotion based on the "Shape", "Color" and "Adumbration". Moreover, to design a highly accurate recommendation system, we considered both emotion-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional indexes. We then identified 14 features of emoticon-technical indexes and selected 36 emotional adjectives. The 36 emotional adjectives consisted of contrasting adjectives, which we reduced to 18, and we measured the 18 emotional adjectives using 40 emoticon sets randomly selected from the top-ranked emoticons in the KakaoTalk shop. We surveyed 277 consumers in their mid-twenties who had experience purchasing emoticons; we recruited them online and asked them to evaluate five different emoticon sets. After data acquisition, we conducted a factor analysis of emoticon-emotional factors. We extracted four factors that we named "Comic", Softness", "Modernity" and "Transparency". We analyzed both the relationship between indexes and consumer attitude and the relationship between emoticon-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional factors. Through this process, we confirmed that the emoticon-technical indexes did not directly affect consumer attitudes but had a mediating effect on consumer attitudes through emoticon-emotional factors. The results of the analysis revealed the mechanism consumers use to evaluate emoticons; the results also showed that consumers' emoticon-technical indexes affected emoticon-emotional factors and that the emoticon-emotional factors affected consumer satisfaction. We therefore designed the emoticon recommendation system using only four emoticon-emotional factors; we created a recommendation method to calculate the Euclidean distance from each factors' emotion. In an attempt to increase the accuracy of the emoticon recommendation system, we compared the emotional patterns of selected emoticons with the recommended emoticons. The emotional patterns corresponded in principle. We verified the emoticon recommendation system by testing prediction accuracy; the predictions were 81.02% accurate in the first result, 76.64% accurate in the second, and 81.63% accurate in the third. This study developed a methodology that can be used in various fields academically and practically. We expect that the novel emoticon recommendation system we designed will increase emoticon sales for companies who conduct business in this domain and make consumer experiences more convenient. In addition, this study served as an important first step in the development of an intelligent emoticon recommendation system. The emotional factors proposed in this study could be collected in an emotional library that could serve as an emotion index for evaluation when new emoticons are released. Moreover, by combining the accumulated emotional library with company sales data, sales information, and consumer data, companies could develop hybrid recommendation systems that would bolster convenience for consumers and serve as intellectual assets that companies could strategically deploy.

Indonesia, Malaysia Airline's aircraft accidents and the Indonesian, Korean, Chinese Aviation Law and the 1999 Montreal Convention

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.37-81
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    • 2015
  • AirAsia QZ8501 Jet departed from Juanda International Airport in, Surabaya, Indonesia at 05:35 on Dec. 28, 2014 and was scheduled to arrive at Changi International Airport in Singapore at 08:30 the same day. The aircraft, an Airbus A320-200 crashed into the Java Sea on Dec. 28, 2014 carrying 162 passengers and crew off the coast of Indonesia's second largest city Surabaya on its way to Singapore. Indonesia's AirAsia jet carrying 162 people lost contact with ground control on Dec. 28, 2014. The aircraft's debris was found about 66 miles from the plane's last detected position. The 155 passengers and seven crew members aboard Flight QZ 8501, which vanished from radar 42 minutes after having departed Indonesia's second largest city of Surabaya bound for Singapore early Dec. 28, 2014. AirAsia QZ8501 had on board 137 adult passengers, 17 children and one infant, along with two pilots and five crew members in the aircraft, a majority of them Indonesian nationals. On board Flight QZ8501 were 155 Indonesian, three South Koreans, and one person each from Singapore, Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 departed from Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8, 2014 at 00:41 local time and was scheduled to land at Beijing's Capital International Airport at 06:30 local time. Malaysia Airlines also marketed as China Southern Airlines Flight 748 (CZ748) through a code-share agreement, was a scheduled international passenger flight that disappeared on 8 March 2014 en route from Kuala Lumpur International Airport to Beijing's Capital International Airport (a distance of 2,743 miles: 4,414 km). The aircraft, a Boeing 777-200ER, last made contact with air traffic control less than an hour after takeoff. Operated by Malaysia Airlines (MAS), the aircraft carried 12 crew members and 227 passengers from 15 nations. There were 227 passengers, including 153 Chinese and 38 Malaysians, according to records. Nearly two-thirds of the passengers on Flight 370 were from China. On April 5, 2014 what could be the wreckage of the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines was found. What appeared to be the remnants of flight MH370 have been spotted drifting in a remote section of the Indian Ocean. Compensation for loss of life is vastly different between US. passengers and non-U.S. passengers. "If the claim is brought in the US. court, it's of significantly more value than if it's brought into any other court." Some victims and survivors of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case would like to sue the lawsuit to the United States court in order to receive a larger compensation package for damage caused by an accident that occurred in the sea of Java sea and the Indian ocean and rather than taking it to the Indonesian or Malaysian court. Though each victim and survivor of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case will receive an unconditional 113,100 Unit of Account (SDR) as an amount of compensation for damage from Indonesia's AirAsia and Malaysia Airlines in accordance with Article 21, 1 (absolute, strict, no-fault liability system) of the 1999 Montreal Convention. But if Indonesia AirAsia airlines and Malaysia Airlines cannot prove as to the following two points without fault based on Article 21, 2 (presumed faulty system) of the 1999 Montreal Convention, AirAsia of Indonesiaand Malaysia Airlines will be burdened the unlimited liability to the each victim and survivor of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case such as (1) such damage was not due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of the air carrier or its servants or agents, or (2) such damage was solely due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of a third party. In this researcher's view for the aforementioned reasons, and under the laws of China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Korea the Chinese, Indonesian, Malaysia and Korean, some victims and survivors of the crash of the two flights are entitled to receive possibly from more than 113,100 SDR to 5 million US$ from the two airlines or from the Aviation Insurance Company based on decision of the American court. It could also be argued that it is reasonable and necessary to revise the clause referring to bodily injury to a clause mentioning personal injury based on Article 17 of the 1999 Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence in the near future.