• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제23권3호
• /
• pp.1-27
• /
• 2017

경제주체들의 경기상황에 대한 판단 및 전망은 경기변동에 영향을 미치므로 경기심리지수와 거시경제지표들 간에는 밀접한 관련성을 나타내는 것으로 알려져 있다. 경기선행지표로 국내에서 많이 사용되는 경기심리지수에는 소비자동향조사, 기업경기조사, 경제심리지수가 있다. 그러나 설문조사를 통해 생성된 지수는 자료의 성격상 속보성이 떨어지는 문제가 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 정형데이터의 한계를 보완할 수 있도록 비정형데이터에서 정보를 추출해 경기심리지수를 생성하고, 경제분석에서의 활용 가능성을 검토하였다. 민간소비와 관련된 실물지표에는 소매판매업지수와 서비스업생산지수를 사용하였고, 고용지표에는 고용률과 실업률을, 가격지표에는 소비자물가상승률과 가계의 대출금리를 사용하여 지표들 간의 추이 분석 및 시차구조 파악을 위한 교차상관분석을 수행하였다. 마지막으로 이들 지표들에 대한 예측 가능성을 점검하였다. 분석결과, 다른 지표들의 선행지수로 많이 사용되는 소비자심리지수와 비교해 선택 지표들과 높은 상관관계를 보이며, 1~2개월 선행한 것으로 나타났다. 예측력 또한 향상되어 텍스트데이터에서 생성한 소비자 경기심리지수의 유용성이 확인되었다. 온라인에서 생성되는 뉴스기사나 소셜 SNS 등의 텍스트 데이터는 속보성이 뛰어나고, 커버리지가 넓어 특정 경제적 이슈가 발생할 경우 이것이 경제에 미치는 영향을 빠르게 파악할 수 있다는 점에서 경기판단지표로써의 잠재적 가능성이 클 것으로 보인다. 경제분석에서 비정형데이터를 활용한 국내연구는 초기 단계지만 데이터의 유용성이 확인되면 그 활용도가 크게 높아질 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국잡초학회지
• /
• 제12권1호
• /
• pp.70-79
• /
• 1992

조선왕조초기(朝鮮王朝初期)부터 농업초기정책(農業初期政策)은 지역농업(地域農業)의 현실적(現實的) 조건(條件)과 결부(結付)된 농사직설(農事直說)과 같은 농서(農書) 발간(發刊)에 의해 부여(附與)되었다. 그 책(冊)들은 새롭고, 집약적(集約的)인 농업기술(農業技術)을 제공(提供)하였다. 이 농서(農書)는 그 당시(當時)에 농촌지역(農村地域)에서 경험(經驗)된 우수한 농업기술(農業技術)을 수집(蒐集)하여 만든 것이다. 농사직설(農事直說)에 따르면 벼 재배(栽培)는 무삶이(담수직파법(湛水直播法)), 건삶이(건답직파법(乾畓直播法)), 이앙법(移秧法) 그리고 산도법(山稻法)(육도법(陸稻法))으로 분화(分化)되었다. 이들 농법(農法)에 구비된 고도기술적특성(高度技術的特性)은 과학적제초기술(科學的除草技術)과 적극적인 시비법(施肥法), 축력(畜力)과 인력용(人力用)의 농기(農機)로 일관되게 체계화(體系化)시킨 농작업방법(農作業方法)에 근거(根據)를 두고 있다는 점이다. 해안(海岸)의 습지(濕地)와 황지(荒地)의 개간(開墾)은 화경(火耕)와 윤목(輪木)이라 칭하는 제초장비(除草裝備)로 인하여 가능케 되었다. 또한 벼의 묘령단계(苗令段階)에서 토양(土壤)의 간인(間引), 토기작업(土寄作業)과 동시에 섬세한 제초작업(除草作業)을 할 수 있도록 분화(分化), 발달(發達)된 호미가 있었다. 직파(直播)벼재배(栽培)는 저류지(貯溜地)와 소택(沼澤)을 만들어 평야수전(平野水田)의 직파재배(直播栽培)를 가능케 하였으며, 곡간지답(谷間地畓)은 보(洑)를 만들어 개간했다. 이들은 관수(灌水)에 의해 제초를 쉽게 하는 동시에 관수중(灌水中) 무기영양(無機營養)을 통(通)한 토양비옥도(土壞肥沃度) 유지 및 벼의 생리적(生理的) 호조건(好條件)을 부여하여 논의 생산성(生産性)을 증대시킬 수 있었다. 또한 이앙(移秧)을 하면 더욱 성력재배(省力栽培)가 가능하였을 것이지만 전국적인 물의 사용제약성(使用制約性)때문에 이앙법(移秧法)을 원칙적으로 금해 오지 않을 수 없었다. 건전재배(乾田栽培)에서 직파재배(直播栽培)가 수립되었으며, 수도(水稻)가 직파(直播)되고 유묘기까지 건토(乾土)에 재배(栽培)되었으며 농사직설(農事直說)에서처럼 비올때 관수토양(灌水土壤)에 재배(栽培)되었다. 조선중기(朝鮮中期)(AD 1495-1725)에는 벼 농사(農事)에서의 제초효율(除草效率)과 편리성(便利性) 때문에 정조식(正條式) 이앙법(移秧法)을 포함한 탁월한 성력농법(省力農法)(한정록(閑情錄))과 벼 이앙에 근거(根據)(농사직설(農事直說))하여 못자리(묘대) 기술(벼의 조기이앙(早期移秧)이 강조(强調)되었다. 비료분(肥料分)을 다량투입(多量投入)하고 우력(牛力)을 이용(利用)하여 심경(深耕)해야 한다는 일련(一連)의 기술(技術)들은 토지(土地)와 노동생산성(勞動生産性)을 향상 시키는 것이었다. 농가집성(農家集成)때보다 산림경제(山林經濟)때에 발전된 사항은 오늘날의 육묘대법(陸苗垈法)과 마찬가지인 건앙법(乾秧法)을 개발하여 이앙재배(移秧栽培)하게 만든 것이며, 답이모작(畓二毛作)을 확립(確立)시켜서 답작(畓作)의 노동(勞動) 및 토지생산성(土地生産性)을 높이게 된 것이다. 이결과 소경영생산양식(小經營生産樣式)을 경영형(經營型) 부농적(富農的) 생산양식(生産樣式)으로 변화시켜 광작농법사회(廣作農法社會)를 태동(胎動)시켰다. 우하영(禹夏永)(1741-1812) 은 천일록(千一錄)을 통하여 당시의 광작농(廣作農)이 갖는 폐단을 집약적(集約的) 농법(農法)으로 개혁하고자 하였고, 그가운데 탁월한 견해로서 농지(農地)를 토질(土質)에 따라 이앙법(移秧法)과 grooving 파종법(播種法)(전(田))으로 땅(토지(土地))의 이용을 구분한 것이다. 특히 서유가(徐有架)(산림경제(山林經濟))가 주장한바 이앙(移秧)의 유리성(有利性)은 제초노력이 절감되고 묘대(苗垈)와 본답(本畓)의 토지기력(土地氣力)을 얻기 때문에 벼의 좋은 생육(生育)을 기대할 수 있다는 것이었다. 또는 벼를 뽑았다가 다시 심기 때문에 새롭게 기력이 얻어진다는 것이었다. 물론 이앙법(移秧法)에 앞선 재평가(再評價), 이모작(二毛作)의 한계성(限界性), 반답법(反畓法)의 제약론(制約論), 광작(廣作)의 폐단에 처한 금지론(禁止論)이 있었다. 그당시 이지연(李止淵)에 의해서 벼의 수도수분생이(水稻水分生理), 토지(土地) 및 제초(除草)의 편리성(便利性)을 고려한 수도직파재배법(水稻直播栽培法)이 쓰여 졌는데 그것은 가장 안정한 농가소득을 확보하는 창조적인 작부체계(作付體系)였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제20권1호
• /
• pp.165-203
• /
• 1987

This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.