• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.146-163
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• 동남아시아연구
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.41-76
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• 2017

본 논문은 ASEAN내에서 한 중 일간 수출경쟁관계를 살펴보고, 일본 엔화 또는 중국 위안화 환율변화가 우리나라의 대(對)ASEAN 수출에 미친 영향을 시계열 분석방법을 이용하여 고찰한다. 이를 위해 우선 한 중 일의 품목별 ASEAN 시장점유율 및 수출경합도지수를 도출하여 한 중 일의 ASEAN시장내 경합관계 및 변화추이를 살펴본다. 더 나아가 다양한 공적분 접근법을 사용하여 우리나라의 대(對)ASEAN 주요국별 수출함수를 추정함으로써 일본 및 중국의 환율변화가 우리의 대(對)ASEAN 수출에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 분석결과, 과거 가장 높았던 일본의 ASEAN 시장점유율이 중국에 의해 대체되었고, 한국의 시장점유율은 큰 변화가 없으며 그 과정에서 한 중 일간 수출경합관계는 더 치열해진 것으로 나타났다. 한편 일본 및 중국의 실질환율 변화가 우리나라의 대(對)ASEAN 수출에 미치는 영향은 매우 제한적이며, ASEAN의 경제성장이 우리나라의 대(對)ASEAN 수출증가를 견인한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 우리 기업들이 ASEAN을 글로벌 가치사슬에 포함하여 직접투자 및 중간재 교역을 급속히 확대한 결과로 보인다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the competition effect of exports between Korea and China in their common-export markets considering market sophistication. Modern market sophistication includes an importing country's aggregate demand for products of high quality, design, novelty, eco-friendliness, and even IPR protection. Using an empirical analysis to identify the demand for product quality across countries, this paper estimates the effects of market sophistication on the competition between Korean exports and Chinese products. Design/Methodology - Our empirical model considers the relationship between an importing country's consumer sophistication and the export competition between Korea and China. This study employs the existing theoretical framework to identify the aggregate demand for product quality across countries. Using a quite direct measurement (the consumer sophistication index, our analysis investigates the differential effects of Korea's export market sophistication, particularly in markets where Korean exports are in competition with similar Chinese products. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: the negative effects of the export competition between Korea and China on Korea's exports are stronger in third markets where consumers are less sophisticated while the effects are not as pronounced in markets where consumers are more sophisticated. This result, however, best applies to differentiated goods which significantly vary in product quality. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the supply side of production and make the assumption that the market preference for export quality is identical across countries. This paper attempts to evaluate the export competition between Korea and China from the demand-side perspective. This area of trade studies is underexplored both empirically and in theory, although the issue has long been important to Korean and world trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권11호
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• pp.145-155
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• 2021

This study examines the export competitiveness of four major natural rubber exporters in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region and investigates the factors affecting bilateral natural rubber export. This study utilized the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) to measure export competitiveness. Next, this study employed the gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation to analyze the factors affecting bilateral export from the four major natural rubber exporters to 46 countries in the region. The analysis is conducted by using annual data from 2001 till 2018. The findings showed that all four major exporters maintained their export competitiveness. Indonesia and Vietnam notably exhibited increasing trends in the early 2000s. Besides, the market share for Malaysia and Vietnam have increased from 2013 to 2015 with the BRI implementation in 2013. In addition, this study discovered that non-tariff measures (NTM) have a positive and significant impact on the bilateral export of natural rubber. The overall findings strongly indicate that the natural rubber export has increased post BRI announcement. The outcome highlighted the benefits of BRI implementation on the natural rubber export. This study is the first attempt to apply the gravity model on the natural rubber exports within the BRI region.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.37-59
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• 2021

Purpose - Although models of innovation and exporting dominate recent studies of relations between innovation and access to foreign markets, relations between innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) are less explored. This is especially true of relations between types of innovation and FDI. We fill that gap in the literature with empirical evidence that clarifies whether firms enter foreign markets through exports or FDI. Design/methodology - In order to assess the role of innovation in firms' international engagement strategies, we develop research hypotheses and present new empirical evidence on firms' choice of entry - exports and FDI - based on firm-level data. Findings - Our empirical results suggest that the impact of product innovation is more significant in transition from being a purely domestic firm to an exporter, while process innovation more significantly affect transition from being an exporter to a multinational enterprise. Our results also support 'self-selection into FDI' rather than 'learning-by-performing FDI' in the relationship between innovation and firms' overseas expansion. Originality/value - Recent literature on the relationship between innovation and firms' participation in foreign markets is dominated by models of innovation and export behavior. However, foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises may also be associated with firms' innovative activities. We first analyze how product and process innovations influence firms' choices to initiate exports or FDI.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.213-228
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• 2005

China is our second largest trade partner and the biggest country of our investment. For this reason, the Korea active strategy for coping with China's changes is very critical at the current point in time due to the economic structure of Korea dependent on exports. This essay is aimed at studying the Foreign Trade Administration System of China and selecting Korea's prospective exports-imports to China. The purpose of this, essay is to help Korean trading corporation to understand the difference between Korea and China in foreign trade administration in order to promote bilateral trade between Korea and China.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.31-46
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to measure the degree of discrepancies in the bilateral trade data between South Korea and its five major trade partners and to identify the key factors causing the discrepancies. By analyzing statistics based on the CIF/FOB ratio estimation and taking into consideration the trade flow via Hong Kong, the study finds that the discrepancies in South Korea's trade data with the US, Vietnam, and Japan are insignificant. In case of Hong Kong, however, the value of South Korea's import from Hong Kong is extensively inconsistent with Hong Kong's export to South Korea(i.e. the mirror data) while the value of South Korea's export to Hong Kong generally corresponds to its mirror data. Such discrepancies are caused by differences in recording re-exports, which are often found in the trade flow via entrepôt economics including Hong Kong. Meanwhile, discrepancies in reported bilateral trade flows between South Korea and People's Republic of China(PRC) remain relatively marginal. The discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the exporter and PRC as the importer is mainly caused by the trade flow via Hong Kong. On the other hand, the discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the importer and PRC as the exporter is assumably due to the differences in attribution of trade partners.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.41-74
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• 2007

본 논문은 한국의 공적개발원조(ODA)의 효과를 원조기관 설립법의 목적달성 여부에 기반을 두고 평가하였다. 구체적인 평가의 기준은 설립법의 목적을 가장 잘 나타낼 수 있는 수원국의 1인당 국내총생산(GDP) 성장과 공여국인 한국의 수출 및 해외직접투자(FDI) 증진을 기준으로 하여 평가하였다. 또한 수원국을 지역, 소득수준 및 경제적 자유도별로 구분하여 원조의 효과를 평가하였다. 한국국제협력단(KOICA)의 양자 간 무상원조(bilateral grants)와 대외경제협력기금(EDCF)의 양자 간 유상원조를 1990~2003년 사이의 163개 수혜국을 대상으로 실증적 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 한국의 공적개발원조는 수원국의 1인당 GDP 성장에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미쳤다는 근거를 발견하지 못하였다. 해외직접투자에 있어서는 공적개발원조가 전 기간에 걸쳐서 수원국에서 한국의 해외직접투자를 증진시켰다. 수출에 있어서는 2000~03년 기간을 제외하고 공적개발원조가 수원국에서 한국의 수출을 증진시킨 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 앞으로의 한국의 공적개발원조정책 수립에 참고가 될 권고를 하였다. 먼저, 수원국의 수를 집중과 선택의 원칙에 따라서 줄이고, 공적원조의 규모를 확대하고, 다른 원조공여국 및 국제개발원조기구와의 공동협력원조를 증진하여야 한다. 둘째, 원조의 목적과 원조자원의 배분기준을 명확하게 규명하고, 이를 구체화하는 집행지침이 마련되어야 할 것이다. 셋째, 원조의 질적 향상을 위하여, 각 수원국별로 유 무상 원조를 아우르는 하나의 조화된 중기원조사업계획을 수립하여 집행한다. 끝으로, 원조기관은 개별적인 원조사업에 대한 사전 사후 평가기준과 사업집행의 점검 감독 기준과 절차를 마련하여 준수하도록 하여야 한다.