• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.168-177
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• 2016

A forecast model for estimating the infection risk of bacterial canker caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae on kiwifruit leaves in Korea was developed using the generic infection model of Magarey et al. (2005). Two-way contingency table analysis was carried out to evaluate accuracy of forecast models including the model developed in this study for estimating the infection of bacterial canker on kiwifruit using the weather and disease data collected from three kiwifruit orchards at Seogwipo in 2015. All the tested models had more than 80% of probability of detection indicating that all the tested models could be effective to manage the disease. The model developed in this study showed the highest values in proportion of correct (51.1%), probability of detection (90.9%), and critical success index (47.6%). It indicated that the model developed in this study would be the best model for estimating the infection of bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves in Korea. The model developed in this study could be used for a part of decision support system for managing bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves and help growers to reduce the loss caused by the disease in Korea.